The Deep Dig
Season Finale: Defense
presented by Wendy Swantkowski, DDS
Looking for experienced, family and cosmetic dental care in the Houston-Memorial area? Go with the best! OB sponsor Wendy Swantkowski, DDS. Call 281-293-9140 and find out why so many Orangebloods members are her patients!
. . .
Market Shares and Futures
Here’s how the productivity rankings are tallied, as always, Deep Dig data and statistics are likely to differ from “official” statistics kept by the university:
Solo Tackles: 1 point
Assisted and Boundary-Assisted Tackles: .5 points
Touches-Down and Untouched Force-Outs: 0 points
Sacks: 2 points
QB Hits: 1 point
QB Pressures: 1 point
TFL: 2 points
Batted Passes: 1 point
Fumbles Caused: 3 points
Fumbles Recovered: 1.5 points
Run-Stuffs: 1 point (on top of tackle if applicable)
Pass Break-Ups: 1 point
Blowups (a PBU that ‘blows up’ the opposing WR): 2 points
Interceptions: 3 points
Defensive Touchdowns: 6 points
Missed Tackles: -1 point
Safeties: 4 points*
FOR DBs ONLY (new in 2016)
Lockdown Bonus: A bonus awarded (3 points for CB, 2 points for S and Nickel**) that can be whittled down by the following negatives stats:
Completions allowed: -.5 points
Burns: -2 points
* the “Paul Boyette Rule” (adopted in November of 2016) says that defensive players who cause offensive holding penalties in the opposing end-zone with result in safeties will be awarded a safety.
** points per total snaps in the game. If a player was only a 50% snap participant as an outside cornerback, the lockdown bonus he’d start out with would be only 1.5 points.
Standings in the Deep Dig’s Productivity Market Share Rankings represent the number of points the player has scored to this point in the season per the Deep Dig’s official records.
The rankings were updated weekly through the season as players moved in and out of the Top 10 and market-shares shifted toward the future. Now, we find ourselves at another season’s conclusion.
Previous Winners:
2015: Malik Jefferson (585 snaps) - 8.55%
. . .
THE FINAL DEEP DIG 2016 DEFENSIVE MARKET-SHARE RANKINGS
(Player) (% total team productivity created)
all photos via UT Football
1. FOX Breckyn Hager (481 snaps) - 8.22%
2. LB Malik Jefferson (570 snaps) - 6.86%
3. FOX Malcolm Roach (439 snaps) - 6.71%
4. DT Poona Ford (563 snaps) - 6.61%
5. S Jason Hall (627 snaps) - 6.06%
6. DT Chris Nelson (430 snaps) - 5.74%
7. LB Anthony Wheeler (559 snaps) - 5.50%
8. DB PJ Locke (594 snaps) - 5.01%
9. DT Paul Boyette (465 snaps) - 4.96%
10. CB Kris Boyd (612 snaps) - 4.88%
… and the rest (of scholarship athletes who took at least a snap on defense)
. . .
Final Thoughts and Notes on the rankings
- Breckyn Hager, once taking the lead in the rankings, never looked back. While he was slow and steady at the top as his snaps increased, Malik Jefferson was a roller-coaster up and down the rankings. He was finally able to make it back up the No. 2 after falling as low an No. 6 at one point. Texas fans should be at least somewhat hopeful considering Jefferson was trending up in a big down the stretch of the 2016 from a shocking sophomore slump.
- One of the biggest takeaways from the season is the fact that Hager owned so much more of the productivity market than the nearest competition. The new defensive staff (whoever it is) will have a chore on its hands identifying ways to get both Hager and Malcolm Roach involved in the game as high snap-participants.
- This should be easier with Roach, as his body — through the course of the season — began to look more and more like that of an SDE, and if we had to bet on it, we’d guess that’s where he’ll stay moving forward, especially as he fills out more. He’s strong enough to set the edge while having terrific balance and athleticism in free space. So much work at the Sam/Fox/Overhang during the end of Strong’s last season at Texas will help in bringing a unique and versatile skill-set to the strong-side edge that most edge-setting traditional ends simply aren’t equipped with. The new staff will be wise to work in stunts and zone-fire blitzes from the get-go should Roach end up settling in at SDE.
- As for Hager, it’s harder to predict how he’ll be used, but the most common sentiment (if Roach could possibly transition to more of an SDE candidate to platoon situationally with a more traditional end-option in Charles Omenihu), is that Hager could stay at the “Fox” position if we are talking about Strong’s system. The problem is, we aren’t talking about Strong’s system. Still, for reasons of projection moving forward, we can figure in that players who work at a weak-side DE spot in a base 4-3 could also figure in as candidates to man some sort of SAM linebacker or overhang position when the defense goes to seven-in-the-box, meaning that a versatile ‘tweener’ such as Hager could probably find enough usage being moved around as the scheme dictated in order to keep the most productive player a) on the field and b) operating off the edge or from the overhang where he is light years more effective than he is as an off-the-L.O.S., box-linebacker.
- In full transparency, the Deep Dig is an evolving system. In 2016 we added in the new DB stats and initiated the Paul Boyette rule. Next season, we’ll begin docking points for blown-contain and we will be calling this this Breckyn Hager rule. For as good as Breckyn Hager was, he was still a bull in a china cabinet in 2016. At times he can be extremely daring and reckless as a player with outside-contain responsibility. Still, even with a number of blown contains baked into Hager’s overall ranking, it’s hard to imagine this statistic alone knocking him off his perch at the top given the difference in market share between him and Jefferson. If we docked blown contains for one point each, Hager would have had to commit 17 over the course of the season to lower his number of shares to where Jefferson’s would then be.
- The interior defensive line will return Poona Ford, who made drastic improvements from 2015 to 2016 and will be losing senior Paul Boyette, who — while steady enough — barely improved at all in his final season at Texas. And we mean BARELY. Over 423 snaps in 2015, Boyette finished in 9th place in the overall Deep Dig rankings, garnering 4.95% of total team market share in productivity. In 2016, he again finished at No. 9 on the season, having generated 4.96% of total team market share. If not for the sack versus TCU at the very end of the season, Boyette (who played 42 more snaps in 2016 than 2015) would have had a less productive season this year than he did as a junior. An NFL paycheck seems like a longshot at this time.
- It’s hard to imagine Jason Hall not retaining his starting safety spot on the new defense, and it will be interesting to see if the new defensive staff makes more of a distinction between which player is strong and which player is “free,” as Strong’s staff generally just had them play sides of the field with Hall generally handling the defense’s right and Dylan Haines its left. As we’ll see in the final snaps/production numbers on the season, Deshon Elliott looks the most likely to step right into the role opposite Hall with a significant push expected to come from soon-to-be-sophomore Brandon Jones.
- Chris Nelson’s snaps fell off toward the end of the season, where he registered season-lows of 22 snaps versus WVU, 24 versus Kansas and then only up to 27 versus TCU. For a player who had the Notre Dame epic monster game and who had played as many as nearly 60 snaps in games as recently as Tech, the significant downtick to end the season will always remain mysterious to us as health did not appear to be an issue. At least this phenomenon caused more playing time down the stretch for true-freshmen D’Andre Christmas, a recently returned Jordan Elliott, and most predominantly, Gerald Wilbon who actually started the last two games of the season, both losses, at the nose tackle.
- Anthony Wheeler can be added to the list along with Davante Davis, Holton Hill, Malik Jefferson, Patrick Vahe and John Burt as Class of 2015 stud-freshmen who regressed from their breakout first seasons to their second in Austin. Wheeler has no business finishing at the bottom of the Top 10 rankings given the volume of tackles funneled his way. In 2015, he was productive on one of 8.88 snaps on a decent 293-snap sample while in 2016 that number rose to one in 9.89 over 559. Outside of tackles, Wheeler barely caused a bit of productivity from his will linebacker position that saw Peter Jinkens finish in the Top 3 of the 2015 rankings just behind Jefferson and Ridgeway. He’ll need to step it up to keep his job from being snatched away from beneath by ‘The Shark’ Jeffrey McCulloch.
- PJ Locke had an end to the season that left more of a Connor Williams/Breckyn Hager/D’Onta Foreman taste in the mouths of fans rather than the stale film of regression swallowed in the cases of Malik Jefferson and crew. Locke was a player who fans would watch and actually get to say … “Wow, look how much better he got!” When adding up PBUs + INTs + Blowups, Locke was the leader on the team with 10 total over 594 snaps. He was the team’s best defender against the football in flight for the 2016 season while being, by far, the most sure tackler in the whole secondary, missing a tackle only once per every 198 snaps.
. . .
Final 2016 Deep Dig Defensive Statistics
Snaps per production and/or disruption caused
Number of total snaps divided by final Deep Dig cumulative production/disruption scores
Snaps per missed tackle
Number of total snaps divided by number of missed tackles
Defensive back snaps per missed tackle and/or blown coverage
Number of total snaps divided by sum of missed tackles, completions allowed or coverage burns* (*of gradable downfield passing attempts given camera views available via the television broadcast angle)
Defensive back snaps per coverage win
Number of total snaps divided by the sum of pass breakups, interceptions and blowups
Snaps per adjusted pass-rush win
Number of total snaps divided by two, then divided by the sum of QB sacks, QB pressures and QB hits
Front-seven snaps per adjusted run-stop win
Number of total snaps divided by two, then divided by (sum of total points for tackles, TFLs, and run-stuffs minus number of total missed tackles)
As we turn our attention to the Season Finale for offense, we thank you, once again, for reading.
. . .
For further analysis of the final team rankings and more, listen to Alex Dunlap’s Deep Dig Podcast Episode One.
Season Finale: Defense
presented by Wendy Swantkowski, DDS
Looking for experienced, family and cosmetic dental care in the Houston-Memorial area? Go with the best! OB sponsor Wendy Swantkowski, DDS. Call 281-293-9140 and find out why so many Orangebloods members are her patients!
. . .
Market Shares and Futures
Here’s how the productivity rankings are tallied, as always, Deep Dig data and statistics are likely to differ from “official” statistics kept by the university:
Solo Tackles: 1 point
Assisted and Boundary-Assisted Tackles: .5 points
Touches-Down and Untouched Force-Outs: 0 points
Sacks: 2 points
QB Hits: 1 point
QB Pressures: 1 point
TFL: 2 points
Batted Passes: 1 point
Fumbles Caused: 3 points
Fumbles Recovered: 1.5 points
Run-Stuffs: 1 point (on top of tackle if applicable)
Pass Break-Ups: 1 point
Blowups (a PBU that ‘blows up’ the opposing WR): 2 points
Interceptions: 3 points
Defensive Touchdowns: 6 points
Missed Tackles: -1 point
Safeties: 4 points*
FOR DBs ONLY (new in 2016)
Lockdown Bonus: A bonus awarded (3 points for CB, 2 points for S and Nickel**) that can be whittled down by the following negatives stats:
Completions allowed: -.5 points
Burns: -2 points
* the “Paul Boyette Rule” (adopted in November of 2016) says that defensive players who cause offensive holding penalties in the opposing end-zone with result in safeties will be awarded a safety.
** points per total snaps in the game. If a player was only a 50% snap participant as an outside cornerback, the lockdown bonus he’d start out with would be only 1.5 points.
Standings in the Deep Dig’s Productivity Market Share Rankings represent the number of points the player has scored to this point in the season per the Deep Dig’s official records.
The rankings were updated weekly through the season as players moved in and out of the Top 10 and market-shares shifted toward the future. Now, we find ourselves at another season’s conclusion.
Previous Winners:
2015: Malik Jefferson (585 snaps) - 8.55%
. . .
THE FINAL DEEP DIG 2016 DEFENSIVE MARKET-SHARE RANKINGS
(Player) (% total team productivity created)
all photos via UT Football
1. FOX Breckyn Hager (481 snaps) - 8.22%
2. LB Malik Jefferson (570 snaps) - 6.86%
3. FOX Malcolm Roach (439 snaps) - 6.71%
4. DT Poona Ford (563 snaps) - 6.61%
5. S Jason Hall (627 snaps) - 6.06%
6. DT Chris Nelson (430 snaps) - 5.74%
7. LB Anthony Wheeler (559 snaps) - 5.50%
8. DB PJ Locke (594 snaps) - 5.01%
9. DT Paul Boyette (465 snaps) - 4.96%
10. CB Kris Boyd (612 snaps) - 4.88%
… and the rest (of scholarship athletes who took at least a snap on defense)
. . .
Final Thoughts and Notes on the rankings
- Breckyn Hager, once taking the lead in the rankings, never looked back. While he was slow and steady at the top as his snaps increased, Malik Jefferson was a roller-coaster up and down the rankings. He was finally able to make it back up the No. 2 after falling as low an No. 6 at one point. Texas fans should be at least somewhat hopeful considering Jefferson was trending up in a big down the stretch of the 2016 from a shocking sophomore slump.
- One of the biggest takeaways from the season is the fact that Hager owned so much more of the productivity market than the nearest competition. The new defensive staff (whoever it is) will have a chore on its hands identifying ways to get both Hager and Malcolm Roach involved in the game as high snap-participants.
- This should be easier with Roach, as his body — through the course of the season — began to look more and more like that of an SDE, and if we had to bet on it, we’d guess that’s where he’ll stay moving forward, especially as he fills out more. He’s strong enough to set the edge while having terrific balance and athleticism in free space. So much work at the Sam/Fox/Overhang during the end of Strong’s last season at Texas will help in bringing a unique and versatile skill-set to the strong-side edge that most edge-setting traditional ends simply aren’t equipped with. The new staff will be wise to work in stunts and zone-fire blitzes from the get-go should Roach end up settling in at SDE.
- As for Hager, it’s harder to predict how he’ll be used, but the most common sentiment (if Roach could possibly transition to more of an SDE candidate to platoon situationally with a more traditional end-option in Charles Omenihu), is that Hager could stay at the “Fox” position if we are talking about Strong’s system. The problem is, we aren’t talking about Strong’s system. Still, for reasons of projection moving forward, we can figure in that players who work at a weak-side DE spot in a base 4-3 could also figure in as candidates to man some sort of SAM linebacker or overhang position when the defense goes to seven-in-the-box, meaning that a versatile ‘tweener’ such as Hager could probably find enough usage being moved around as the scheme dictated in order to keep the most productive player a) on the field and b) operating off the edge or from the overhang where he is light years more effective than he is as an off-the-L.O.S., box-linebacker.
- In full transparency, the Deep Dig is an evolving system. In 2016 we added in the new DB stats and initiated the Paul Boyette rule. Next season, we’ll begin docking points for blown-contain and we will be calling this this Breckyn Hager rule. For as good as Breckyn Hager was, he was still a bull in a china cabinet in 2016. At times he can be extremely daring and reckless as a player with outside-contain responsibility. Still, even with a number of blown contains baked into Hager’s overall ranking, it’s hard to imagine this statistic alone knocking him off his perch at the top given the difference in market share between him and Jefferson. If we docked blown contains for one point each, Hager would have had to commit 17 over the course of the season to lower his number of shares to where Jefferson’s would then be.
- The interior defensive line will return Poona Ford, who made drastic improvements from 2015 to 2016 and will be losing senior Paul Boyette, who — while steady enough — barely improved at all in his final season at Texas. And we mean BARELY. Over 423 snaps in 2015, Boyette finished in 9th place in the overall Deep Dig rankings, garnering 4.95% of total team market share in productivity. In 2016, he again finished at No. 9 on the season, having generated 4.96% of total team market share. If not for the sack versus TCU at the very end of the season, Boyette (who played 42 more snaps in 2016 than 2015) would have had a less productive season this year than he did as a junior. An NFL paycheck seems like a longshot at this time.
- It’s hard to imagine Jason Hall not retaining his starting safety spot on the new defense, and it will be interesting to see if the new defensive staff makes more of a distinction between which player is strong and which player is “free,” as Strong’s staff generally just had them play sides of the field with Hall generally handling the defense’s right and Dylan Haines its left. As we’ll see in the final snaps/production numbers on the season, Deshon Elliott looks the most likely to step right into the role opposite Hall with a significant push expected to come from soon-to-be-sophomore Brandon Jones.
- Chris Nelson’s snaps fell off toward the end of the season, where he registered season-lows of 22 snaps versus WVU, 24 versus Kansas and then only up to 27 versus TCU. For a player who had the Notre Dame epic monster game and who had played as many as nearly 60 snaps in games as recently as Tech, the significant downtick to end the season will always remain mysterious to us as health did not appear to be an issue. At least this phenomenon caused more playing time down the stretch for true-freshmen D’Andre Christmas, a recently returned Jordan Elliott, and most predominantly, Gerald Wilbon who actually started the last two games of the season, both losses, at the nose tackle.
- Anthony Wheeler can be added to the list along with Davante Davis, Holton Hill, Malik Jefferson, Patrick Vahe and John Burt as Class of 2015 stud-freshmen who regressed from their breakout first seasons to their second in Austin. Wheeler has no business finishing at the bottom of the Top 10 rankings given the volume of tackles funneled his way. In 2015, he was productive on one of 8.88 snaps on a decent 293-snap sample while in 2016 that number rose to one in 9.89 over 559. Outside of tackles, Wheeler barely caused a bit of productivity from his will linebacker position that saw Peter Jinkens finish in the Top 3 of the 2015 rankings just behind Jefferson and Ridgeway. He’ll need to step it up to keep his job from being snatched away from beneath by ‘The Shark’ Jeffrey McCulloch.
- PJ Locke had an end to the season that left more of a Connor Williams/Breckyn Hager/D’Onta Foreman taste in the mouths of fans rather than the stale film of regression swallowed in the cases of Malik Jefferson and crew. Locke was a player who fans would watch and actually get to say … “Wow, look how much better he got!” When adding up PBUs + INTs + Blowups, Locke was the leader on the team with 10 total over 594 snaps. He was the team’s best defender against the football in flight for the 2016 season while being, by far, the most sure tackler in the whole secondary, missing a tackle only once per every 198 snaps.
. . .
Final 2016 Deep Dig Defensive Statistics
Snaps per production and/or disruption caused
Number of total snaps divided by final Deep Dig cumulative production/disruption scores
Snaps per missed tackle
Number of total snaps divided by number of missed tackles
Defensive back snaps per missed tackle and/or blown coverage
Number of total snaps divided by sum of missed tackles, completions allowed or coverage burns* (*of gradable downfield passing attempts given camera views available via the television broadcast angle)
Defensive back snaps per coverage win
Number of total snaps divided by the sum of pass breakups, interceptions and blowups
Snaps per adjusted pass-rush win
Number of total snaps divided by two, then divided by the sum of QB sacks, QB pressures and QB hits
Front-seven snaps per adjusted run-stop win
Number of total snaps divided by two, then divided by (sum of total points for tackles, TFLs, and run-stuffs minus number of total missed tackles)
As we turn our attention to the Season Finale for offense, we thank you, once again, for reading.
. . .
For further analysis of the final team rankings and more, listen to Alex Dunlap’s Deep Dig Podcast Episode One.
