“If I’m lucky, I’ll be associated with The Dude for the rest of my life…” said Jeff Bridges as he thanked the Coen Brothers during his Cecil B. deMille Award acceptance speech at the Golden Globes this past Sunday.
Yeah, The Dude is back thanks to, well, you know, The Dude. Far out, man. I know. Please indulge me for a minute – although, I won’t at all fault you for just flying right by this personal anecdote that will undoubtedly result in some rolled eyes and ‘cool story, bro!’ reactions - while I explain from the top of my soapbox: Some of you suggested a change in column title and column style. I eventually agreed, obviously, thinking a refresh would attract some more eyeballs or new eyeballs or different eyeballs. So, I tested the new style with a title that changed each week to fit the subject matter.
(Let’s be honest: I chose something football-related to try to attract as many readers as possible. That’s not click bait; that’s the nature of this website. I could write the best feature piece or reporting scoop of the year on something other than football and it wouldn’t get the attention a 300-word pinned post about what Tom Herman told Zach Evans on a recruiting visit.)
Well, I grew tired of the new style. Despite the tone of the board’s interactions leading to more negative than positive feedback, we do listen to suggestions. I listened. I tried. I’m over it. More from Bridges’s speech:
“Oh, another first-time guy I was so lucky to work with: the late, great Michael Cimino, who directed “Thunderbolt and Lightfoot.” That was his first movie. I can remember going into his office the day before we started shooting, and I said to Mike, ‘Man, I’m so sorry, but I think you made a terrible mistake. I’m not feeling this guy at all. I feel so inadequate. I’m giving you late notice, I know, but please fire me.’ He looked at me and said, ‘Jeff, you know the game tag?’ I say, ‘Yeah.’ He says, ‘You’re it.’ I say, ‘What do you mean I’m it?’ He says, ‘You are the guy. You couldn’t make a mistake if you wanted to. You know, the life of this character is coming through you. It’s a done deal.’ I say, ‘Oh, all right. That’s a wonderful vote of confidence and a great perspective to look at this thing.’
“And I used it, of course, in that film — and in all the other movies that I’ve done, as well as my life. You know, I’ve been tagged. I guess we all have been tagged, right? We’re all alive. Right here, right now! This is happening. We’re alive!”
A column like this is more therapeutic and a passion project than anything else. Plus, it’s a way to, hopefully, deliver thought-provoking, unique words about topics you subscribe for while also being able to entertainingly – again, hopefully – express opinions about other topics I’m passionate about. If I don’t care enough about a weekly feature to go on this now, like Bridges's speech, slightly unusual, long-winded explanation with a hint of intelligence, eventually reaching a possibly inconsequential point, I’m not putting what I can into a weekly feature piece I do for you and me.
Like Bridges said above, I wasn’t feeling the change. In our line of work with so much constant writing in posts and other things that aren’t even published pieces, a writer sometimes (often?) needs something to spark the competitive juices to flow, especially when some weeks include multiple columns, game stories, reporting, breaking news, recruiting, 500-plus posts with 25 replies to someone calling you an idiot, and more. And there's only so much iced coffee I can consume and my wife will allow me to purchase in a given month. So, yeah, something as simple as an image, a title and a YouTube video here or there clears the cobwebs in my head and takes me to the type of place like The Dude in his tub surrounded by candles, lighting a roach and listening to whale sounds. I can’t explain it, and I know some Nihilists will come break down this door soon. But I’m nearly 700 words into this and perhaps that’s the best explanation.
This is happening. We’re alive!
I know. Cool story, bro. To the writing you actually care about:
1) So, how does Texas reach the College Football Playoff?
The Longhorns’ win over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl delivered a loud statement: Tom Herman’s program made substantial progress in year two, is on schedule, and is on a path towards consistently competing for Big 12 championships. Of course, competing for a conference title normally means a potential College Football Playoff berth as well. To argue against the notion Texas made significant process this season, and against Herman’s rejuvenating results in two seasons would be foolish. Texas is, clearly, getting better and knocking on the door of elite status in college football, a door that quickly and surprisingly shut on Texas after the 2009 season.
So, how does Texas take the next step, and, more importantly, remain in the top tier of college football once it rejoins it? Because, right now, the smart money is on Texas taking that next step from 10-4 Sugar Bowl champs to 10 or more wins before a bowl game. The long answer includes many things like development, creating more separation on the scoreboard, becoming more consistent, etc. As for the short answer, it’s simple: add more talent.
Before you can pound your keyboard and point an e-finger at Georgia’s more talented roster, I know. I know Georgia had more talent, and I know Texas was the better team from kickoff to the final whistle. And the lack of Georgia motivation? I’m not buying it. Maybe Georgia was just beaten, and maybe it lost to the three best teams in played all season. Anyway, that’s another discussion.
Right now, the talent gap between the haves and have nots in college football is widening. More on that in a moment. In the meantime, take a look at the elite prospects Clemson signed (emphasis on “signed” because a few players moved on, but signing a prospect of that caliber is the main point – accumulating talent) the last four classes and also Alabama:
CLEMSON
6.1 (five-star prospect): 15
6.0 (very high four-star prospect) or higher: 19
5.9 (Bottom third of the Rivals100 or top Rivals250 prospect) or higher: 32
ALABAMA
6.1 (five-star prospect) or higher: 19
6.0 (very high four-star prospect) or higher: 32
5.9 (Bottom third of the Rivals100 or top Rivals250 prospect) or higher: 52
(Note: the “or higher” designates that 6.1 players are also included in the other two lists and 6.0 players in the 5.9 list to designate a total number of top tier talent.)
Monday night, the first two players two score touchdowns, Clemson defensive back A.J. Terrell and Alabama receiver Jerry Jeudy, were five-star prospects. Five-star freshman QB Trevor Lawrence had some beautiful connections with five-star receivers Justyn Ross, a freshman, and sophomore Tee Higgins. Five-star freshman Xavier Thomas had 0.5 sacks for Clemson and so did senior five-star Christian Wilkins. Jeudy led Alabama in receiving while Damien Harris and Najee Harris, both five-stars, led Alabama in rushing.
You should get the point by now. But if you don’t, let’s look at the listed two-deep depth charts by Rivals Rating for both teams heading into the game:
CLEMSON
QB – 6.1, 5.8
LT – 6.0, 6.1
LG – 5.8, 5.8
C – 5.7, 5.7
RG – 5.7, 5.8,
RT – 5.6, 5.6,
RB – 5.7, 5.9
H-Back – 5.9
WR – 6.1, 6.1
WR – 5.3, 5.9
WR – 5.8, 6.1
DE – 5.9, 5.8
DT – 5.9, 5.8
DT – 6.1, 5.9
DE – 5.9, 6.1
LB – 5.7, 5.7
LB – 6.1, 6.0
LB – 5.5, 6.1
CB – 6.1, 5.9
FS – 5.7, 5.4
SS – 5.5, 5.4
CB – 5.9, 6.0
PR – 5.8
KR – 6.1
ALABAMA
QB – 6.0, 5.8
LT – 6.1, 5.7
LG – 6.0, 5.7
C – 5.9, 5.9
RG – 6.1, 5.8
RT – 6.1, 6.0
RB – 6.1, 5.6
TE - 5.7, 5.7
WR – 6.1, 6.1
WR – 6.0, 5.9
WR – 5.9, 5.7
DE – 6.1, 6.0
DT – 5.9, 5.9
DE – 5.9, 5.6
LB – 6.1, 5.8
LB – 6.0, 6.1
LB – 6.1, 5.9
LB – 5.8, 5.4
CB – 6.0, 5.8
SS – 6.0, 5.9
FS – 6.0, 5.7
CB – 6.1, 6.0
PR – 6.1
KR - 5.6
Clemson and Alabama are both 55-4 over the last four seasons each with two national championships. And guess what? With their quarterbacks back and a roster loaded with talent, they’re going to be the top two teams in the preseason rankings next season with good odds to meet again for a championship.
Clemson and Alabama represent the increasing talent gap in college football; a small group of programs are beginning to grab a significant portion of the top high school talent each season, and it's leading to fewer teams that can realistically compete for championships while also, like this season, producing more predictable college seasons.
2) A look at Texas…
TEXAS
6.1 (five-star prospect) or higher: 3
6.0 (very high four-star prospect) or higher: 10
5.9 (Bottom third of the Rivals100 or top Rivals250 prospect) or higher: 19
You might be thinking, ‘Well, it’s pretty impressive Texas finished 10-4 with a Sugar Bowl win over Georgia when I look at that.’ And you’re right. While this isn’t an exercise to convince you Texas lacks talent, it does show the disparity between the top tier of college football and Texas. Until Texas reaches that tier, competing for a national championship will be more difficult than it is for those programs with more top talent.
Because let’s be honest: as good of coaches as Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney are and as good as their staffs are and have been, their greatest attribute as coaches is their recruiting ability. During every game that the two play that isn’t against each other and maybe Ohio State, they are, usually by far, the more talented team. That’s a big advantage.
Sure, programs receive significant contributions from players that aren’t in those top three tiers of the Rivals Rating. Heck, two of the best running backs on the filed in the National Championship Game were three-star players. So, evaluation and development absolutely matter, and Texas received contributions this season from players like Sam Cosmi that profile to be big-time players without the recruiting accolades. Speaking of Cosmi, it’s interesting to look at both Clemson and Alabama and notice how many veteran offensive linemen they had that weren’t elite prospects, which goes to show recruiting that position is, besides QB, the most difficult in football.
However, look at the 5.9 or better players Texas has signed over the last four years:
2015 class
6.1 - Malik Jefferson – NFL after junior season (third-round pick)
5.9 – Anthony Wheeler – captain and starter as a senior
5.9 - John Burt – will be a redshirt senior next season
5.9 – Holton Hill – starter for multiple seasons, playing well in NFL, and would have been a top pick if not for some off the field issues
5.9 – Kris Boyd – starter for multiple seasons, all-conference selection, future NFL pick
5.9 – Chris Warren – left for NFL after junior season and was turning heads with Raiders before injury
2016 class
6.1 – Erick Fowler – left the program
6.0 – Devin Duvernay – starter as a junior, and will be a starter as a senior
6.0 – Patrick Hudson – rough injury luck has derailed career to this point
5.9 – Brandon Jones – has option to return for senior season as one of best defensive backs in Big 12 or go to NFL early
5.9 – Collin Johnson – will be one of the best receivers in the country next season
5.9 – Shane Buechele – Good freshman season as a starter before eventually losing job to Sam Ehlinger later in career
5.9 – D’Andre Christmas Giles – Yet to make a big impact
2017 class
6.0 – Gary Johnson – Future NFL pick and one of Big 12’s best linebackers
5.9 – Sam Ehlinger – Terrific sophomore season, Heisman contender in 2019
2018 class
6.1 – Caden Sterns – Big 12 Freshman of the Year
6.0 – B.J. Foster – Emerged as a contributor and future star in freshman season
6.0 – Jalen Green – Will compete for starting spot next season
6.0 – Brennan Eagles - Will compete for starting spot next season
6.0 – Anthony Cook – likely starter at corner next season
5.9 – Cameron Rising, Keondre Coburn, DeMarvion Overshown, Al’Vontae Woodard, Junior Angilau, Josh Moore – Either played this season, or will compete for playing time next season besides Rising
If we subtract Fowler and Hudson, who still has a chance to make an impact, what’s left is a pretty good hit rate on those top tier players. That’s not a coincidence. It’s college football – the more good players a team accumulates, the more candidates it has to produce at a high level.
Heck, look at how many freshmen immediately made contributions this past season: Sterns, Foster, Cook, Keaontay Ingram (5.8), D’Shawn Jamison (5.8), Joseph Ossai (5.8).
3) The challenge for Tom Herman is…
Herman must find a way to continue to add top talent at Texas. While winning 10 games and the Sugar Bowl should help the 2020 class, recruiting in the state isn’t getting easier. Texas A&M is making its presence felt, Oklahoma always recruits the state and is recruiting at an even higher level than Bob Stoops, and programs like LSU, Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Georgia, Stanford, Florida, and Notre Dame all dip into the state each season for at least one good prospect.
The Texas 2019 recruiting class right now is a good class. It’s not a great class. Texas needs more great classes.
Yes, the Texas staff is proving to have strong evaluation eyes, is showing some real signs of developmental ability, and has firmly established its culture, a culture that was on full display while Texas whipped Georgia for nearly the entire Sugar Bowl. It also, after some rough patches during Herman’s first season, showed a truly special ability to connect with players this season and get the most out of them. All those things matter substantially, and so does the frequent examples of strong pre-game and in-game coaching moves; those things help teams win football games.
However, even Herman knows he needs to add more talent. Think back to some of the things he’s said throughout the season: being the more physical and tougher team is the way Texas has to win game right now; Texas playing in a Big 12 Championship Game was overachieving; the program is taking steps, but needs to take another; lack of depth at certain times in the season.
4) Texas in the way-too-early preseason polls
A look at where Texas ranked in the way-too-early preseason top 25 polls published following the end of the 2018 college football season:
ESPN – No. 8
CBS – No. 11
Sports Illustrated – No. 8
USA Today – No. 5
Athlon Sports – No. 6
Yahoo! Sports – No. 8
Bleacher Report – No. 4
5) The truth about Clemson’s win over Alabama…
Clemson was simply a better football team. It had the better quarterback. It had a better gameplan with a coaching staff that executed better during the game. It had the better line play. It had the better receivers and defensive backs. It was more poised. Everyone knew the game was over when Alabama inexplicably ran a fake field goal on 4th-and-6 with its third-string, slow quarterback trying to run power at a base defense with a kicker as a lead blocker. Yes, that happened.
Besides the hilariously awful fake attempt, the most surprising aspect of the game was third-down play and more specifically the quarterback play.
Trevor Lawrence was better than Tua Tagovailoa. While the freshman torched Alabama on third down with poise in the pocket and impressive throws, the sophomore struggled to read defenses, and missed far too many easy reads and throws all night. Give Clemson’s coaching staff credit for confusing Alabama’s quarterback, but Tagovailoa looked like a quarterback seeing things he’s never seen before.
So, while the knee-jerk reactions and rumors of Nick Saban’s assistant coaches being to blame fill the internet, the truth is Clemson was just better. Over the last seven quarters in College Football Playoff games, Alabama gave up 78 points and 7.8 yards per play; it gave up a full yard per play more than it generated.
As dominant as Alabama was this season, how many teams did it play with talent level in the same galaxy as Alabama? Georgia, Oklahoma, Clemson and maybe LSU. The margin for error really dips when the team lining up across from Alabama can, at least at some positions, match its talent.
6) Texas Basketball…
Must we discuss the latest installment of the 2018-19 Texas Basketball roller coaster? After a couple of enjoyable rides, the roller coaster delivered another nauseating 40 minutes at Oklahoma State last night. I really don’t have much to add in addition to what I wrote last night. This team is what it is – inconsistent. And even more maddening for Texas fans will be UT playing with terrific energy and spirit for close to 40 minutes at home against Texas Tech on Saturday after doing it for maybe 20 minutes at Oklahoma State, a much worse team than Tech.
A head coach in his fourth year that spends so much time discussing culture, process, effort, energy, confidence, and toughness said, per Stateman’s Brian Davis, last night, “Tonight, we didn’t have five guys that wanted to live out that identity. I’ve got to find five that’ll do it. We’ve made some strides in that area, but today was definitely a significant step back.”
We’re 15 games into Smart’s fourth season at Texas.
If you’re wondering about Texas Baseball, its official practices begin January 25th.
7) Scanning the sports globe…
--- Texas Tech fired Kliff Kingsbury. The Arizona Cardinals just hired him to be their head coach. What does that say about the NFL? What does that say about the Big 12, a conference that might also, according to reports, lose Baylor head coach Matt Rhule to a head position in the NFL? Maybe, just maybe, the league is filled with good coaches, and some really good coaches. However, the Big 12’s inability to accumulate elite talent and bright offensive minds often result in a conference overlooked.
The ACC and Pac-12 weren’t better than the Big 12 this past season. Was the SEC? Was the Big Ten?
--- The MLB free agent market isn’t going to budge until Manny Machado and Bryce Haper make decisions, and even then there probably won’t be a lot of teams spending a lot of free agent dollars. I’ve discussed this at length during multiple Extra Bases Podcasts at The Yakk: Major League Baseball organizations don’t view free agency the way they used to.
Now more than ever, teams, some better and more than others, are able to use in-house models to determine the value of players now and in the future, which has led to a decrease in the number of lengthy contracts signed and free agent dollars spent. People in baseball want to look smart, and now the way to look smart is to win by spending as less money as possible by exploring all internal or trade options before spending on free agents. Prospects, in many ways, have always been a form of baseball currency, and the best teams at acquiring and developing talent are at an advantage because they can acquire top talent without the financial risk free agents are often attached to.
--- Hey, Gregg Popovich is getting the most out of DeMar DeRozan’s terrific offensive skill, putting one of the league’s best offenses on the floor, and is also getting his team to make real strides defensively. Shocking, isn’t it?
Meanwhile in Houston, James Harden leads the league in minutes played per game, usage rate, offensive box plus/minus, and VORP (value over replacement player). While Chris Paul is out with an injury, Harden has provided the best example a NBA player can, in the regular season, of putting a team on his back. Houston is 7-1 since Paul left the lineup with wins over the Spurs, Thunder, Celtics, Pelicans (road), Grizzlies, Warriors (road), and Nuggets. During that stretch Harden is averaging 40.4 points per game, 9.8 assists, 6.4 rebounds, and is shooting 55-of-137 from three-point range (40.1 percent).
And in Dallas, rookie Luka Doncic has scored 10 points or more in 15-straight games. Texas professional basketball might not be so bad after all.
8)Anything and everything…
--- This is around the time I start to visit the movies a lot to do see the films nominated for all the upcoming awards. So far, I’ve seen Bohemian Rhapsody and BlacKkKlansman. The former included the best acting performance I’ve seen in a movie this year as Rami Malek was sensational playing Freddy Mercury, an extremely tough role to have. The latter was a good film I enjoyed, but felt like it tried to balance sending a serious message while also being a comedy, and struggled to balance the two at times.
I’m most excited to see Roma and The Favourite. Based on reviews and conversations with people that have seen it, Green Book winning so many awards at Golden Globes was surprising.
--- Once upon a time giving up a Blackberry felt like a step towards technology hell. I loved that phone. I could type entire stories on its keyboard as quick as I could a laptop, and it was a fun phone to use. Fast forward about seven or eight years, and now I’m Team Apple. The Apple Watch and AirPods are amazing pieces of technology. Yes, I’m now one of those people. If you see me obliviously walking around with AirPods in, feel free to kick me in the shins because I will deserve it.
---
--- After the first couple spins of Nirvana’s MTV Unplugged in New York vinyl, I’d recommend it to anyone with a record player. It’s hard not get goosebumps as Kurt Cobain pours everything into, “Where Did You Sleep Last Night?” especially when you consider Cobain took his own life five months later.
9) The best thing I read this week…
From The New Yorker: The French Burglar Who Pulled Off His Generation’s Biggest Art Heist
