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Donny's Out of his Element, but Dustin's 9 dude-abiding thoughts are not...(schedule analysis, more)

DustinMcComas

You are what your fWAR says you are.
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Apr 26, 2005
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Wooten, Austin
I encourage all of you to please support your local businesses and restaurants if you can. Please. Maybe that means ordering delivery or pick-up and leaving a big tip; maybe that means buying some gift cards from your favorite local spots to use once this all dies down; maybe that means getting merchandise from your favorite places to wear and help with some free advertising in the process.

Whatever you can do, big or small, our friends in the community need it. Speaking of local businesses, special thanks to past column sponsors WYLD GALLEY and Keep Austin Well CBD. Interesting in sponsoring this column? E-mail me dustin@orangebloods.com.

Jesus Quintana's hair net is COVID-19 friendly, but his pre-bowling routine would surely be outlawed now.

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Alright, the writing…

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1) Initial reaction to UT’s new schedule…
I don’t think the Big 12 is going to pull a Big Ten and release a new schedule only to cancel the season days later. So, cautious optimism if you want to see football this year.


A few quick takes:
--- No matter how good or bad Texas Tech is, things always have a chance of getting weird at night in Lubbock. Look at me… I’ve already assumed this game is at night even though times haven’t been decided. I can’t imagine what 2020 will do to Lubbock games. If Alan Bowman is healthy and right, this will be an early test for new UT defensive coordinator Chris Ash. But the Longhorns should score more points.

--- TCU jumped from one of the last games on the schedule to the home opener for the Longhorns. After finishing 36th in S&P+ last season, TCU should arrive to Austin a fairly big underdog. Gary Patterson is 18-18 in the Big 12 since 2015. Surely, Max Duggan’s team doesn’t beat Sam Ehlinger’s again… right? After beating Texas last season, Duggan finished the season with nine of his 10 interceptions in just five games.

--- Texas will head to Dallas and face OU after a home game while OU will come off what figures to be a difficult, more emotional road matchup at Iowa State.

--- Hello, bye week. Originally, the Longhorns didn’t have a single break during Big 12 action. They’ll get their first one before a three-game slate of Baylor at home, Oklahoma State on the road, and West Virginia at home. Interestingly, Baylor will not be coming off an open week before playing Texas, and Oklahoma State will be three weeks removed from its first open Saturday when it hosts Texas. West Virginia’s game in Austin will be its fourth-straight, and fourth of a five-game stretch.

--- If the Longhorns look the part early in the schedule and hold their own after Oklahoma, the finish sets up pretty nicely. Last I checked, Kansas is still Kansas. If Texas handles its business, it should arrive in good shape to host Iowa State, a game that could have major Big 12 implications. Kansas State will be coming off two-straight road games when it hosts Texas to end the season, a more winnable regular-season finale than the originally trip to Stillwater.

--- Overall, this schedule feels like less of a grind for the Longhorns, especially considering the new inclusion of multiple off weeks. Make no mistake, opening up at Texas Tech won’t be a cakewalk. Texas and West Virginia are the only two teams that don’t play consecutive road games.

2) Newcomers on offense…
Scan the list of recent national champions, and you’ll find some true freshman performers. Even the best, most experienced teams will need members of their incoming recruiting class to play a role, especially over a normal schedule.

It was around this time last year when Jake Smith was turning heads, T’Vondre Sweat created some buzz, Jordan Whittington was thought to be a big piece of the puzzle prior to injury, and Roschon Johnson switched from quarterback to running back. What kind of contribution am I expecting this year? Let’s take a look at a few statistical top performers on both sides of the ball:

2019 - Roschon Johnson649 rushing yards on 123 attempts (5.3 yards per carry); 23 catches for 158 yards; eight total touchdowns

2020 – Bijan Robinson…

Let’s pause for a second and marvel at Johnson’s stat line. That’s extremely impressive for a quarterback moved to running back weeks before the season began. It also helps illustrate how much Texas threw to running backs last season. Recent Mike Yurcich-led offenses at Ohio State and Oklahoma State didn’t incorporate the running back as a receiver as much as Texas did last season, but the top back did receive around two catches, give or take, per game on average.

Since we don’t know how many games or what a football season hopefully looks like, it’s probably more relevant to at least acknowledge the per-game statistics for Johnson and others. He averaged 62.1 total yards per game last season. By the way, that’s about four yards per game more than Malcolm Brown averaged his first season in 2011 and three yards per game less than Johnathan Gray the next season. Will Robinson eclipse Johnson’s 2019 mark?

Currently, the Longhorns are planning on a 10-game regular-season schedule with just one non-conference opponent, which probably means fewer immediate opportunities for the true freshman to make his case for more playing time. It also means depth across the board probably isn’t tested as much, with needed injury replacements, as a typical grind. Plus, Keaontay Ingram and Johnson return after nearly a combined 2,000 yards from scrimmage in 2019. It’s not like we’re talking about the 2017 mess at running back.

I remain very bullish on Robinson and think he’ll emerge as the lead back by the end of the season with more than 62.1 yards per game on average, but with fewer games on the schedule, it’ll be tougher to work his way to the top.

2019 – Jake Smith25 catches for 274 yards (11.0 yards per catch) with six touchdowns

2020 – Troy Omeire…

The receiver depth chart is very inviting. We know Brennan Eagles is going to do his thing as the new leader of the group and Smith and Jordan Whittington should be heavily involved. Can Marcus Washington emerge as a consistent focal point? How much will the tight end be utilized? Will players like Al’Vonte Woodard realize more of their potential and become key pieces?

Omeire, who arrives to Texas with similar size, speed, and skill set as Eagles, should eclipse 19.0 yards per game receiving. Hell, he might crush that number. One of the most underrated prospects in UT’s class, Omeire is physically ready for college football and his size and speed make him a home run threat down the field.



3) Newcomers on defense…

2019 – Chris Adimora10 tackles, two passes defended

2020 – Xavian Alford…

Never say never because Adimora’s emergence – and he contributed more than stats suggest - was a surprise ushered in by the secondary being decimated by injuries. That said, the depth at defensive back looks like it should make it difficult for a true freshman to emerge as a needed contributor for a portion of the season.

2019 – T’Vondre Sweatnine tackles, 1.0 sacks, one pass defended, one fumble recovery

2020 - Alfred Collins…

Malcolm Roach, who had 40 tackles last season, is gone and Texas is set to use primarily a four-man front. Collins surpassing those statistics seems like an easy bet. Even if the Longhorns were still using a three-man front, they’d still need some of the incoming bodies to emerge as rotational players. Collins, a young man impossible to miss because of how physically impressive he is, wasted no time turning some heads during first workouts.

4) UT’s bet on athleticism and upside along the offensive line…
While reading the Isaiah Hookfin portion of @Alex Dunlap's recent practice update, I immediately thought of that video from Twitter of him running down the street.



Typically, 6-5, 314-pound offensive linemen don’t move like that. No, running down the street looking extremely athletic for a big guy doesn’t translate to success on the field. But Hookfin, who is already mixing in with the first team occasionally in practice (it should be noted Texas experiments with a lot of different OL groupings in the early stages of camp), is one of a few examples of Texas betting on the long-term upside of big athletes and being unafraid at the developmental task.

Along with Hookfin, Reese Moore (basketball player; long-term upside), Willie Tyler (former defensive linemen, also played hoops; big athlete), and Christian Jones (outstanding athleticism for his size and position and still relatively new to football) all fit the mold as more developmental “projects” than instant impact, high-floor offensive linemen when they signed.

Now, all those players have at least a full year in college football in the rear-view mirror. I’d contend any of them emerging as a starter this early in their careers would be ahead of schedule, but 2020 should deliver some meaningful information to suggest whether UT’s bet/plan was a good one or not. If more offensive linemen like Hookfin begin to emerge, the 2020 offensive line will be better for it and the future of the position would look much healthier.

If a top program isn’t going to land the elite, five-star type prospects at the position, it has to nail its evaluations and development to find impact players down the lists.

5) I tried to make it through an entire column without discussing it…
I like elephants. So, I’m not going to refer to it as the elephant in the room. Maybe indecisive and annoying relative who procrastinates constantly and threatens your sanity? Seems more fitting.

Anyway, I don’t know what is going to happen to the college football season. I know I don’t like to think of a world without a college football season for a long, long list of reasons. To put this into perspective, Monday I spoke to a couple people who communicated with a high-ranking individual at Texas. The message was consistent: The Longhorns want to play football and are planning they will.

Of course, that was Monday, and in a very conference realignment-esque type of way, this story seemingly changes by the hour and certainly by the day. Remember on Monday when the Big Ten was set to shut things down and then on Tuesday reports came out in the early morning basically implying it overplayed its hand? Then later that same day, the league finally did what everyone expected it to with the Pac-12 almost immediately following in its footsteps? Yeah, that happened.

If conferences move forward and play, there’s going to be the risk of stoppage, outbreaks, or even worse in the form of medical complications for players, especially on campuses where at least some students will return for classes. This isn’t a pay-for-play discussion, but no one can ignore these players aren’t paid professionals despite the millions they help bring into their athletic departments, which would be crippled unlike anything we’ve ever seen without a football season; they’re young student-athletes. And of course, there’s a discussion about liability in here somewhere as well.

On the other hand, are football players going to be more protected from the virus and adhere to protocols more proactively if they’re not in a season? The average college student isn’t tested for the virus like a football player, and many of these universities aren’t fretting over that. Consider what happens if - and this is probably a small if, but possible, especially for those athletic departments that were barely making money prior to the pandemic or at campuses where it will be online instruction only - a lot of these players are sent home and sent home to some places where the economy is wrecked, and home life is a struggle.

And if they’re not sent home and provided every single thing they currently are while prepping for a season during COVID-19, like Ohio State says it will do after the Big Ten cancelled its fall season, what does that look like when every athletic department in the country will undoubtedly be forced to make cuts? Will athletic departments keep their gigantic support staffs in place and continue to spend money on testing and protocols without a season while they have to pay a bunch of coaches a ton of money not to coach? Because if they do, they’ll have to make major cuts in other areas in the department and probably eliminate some sports, at least in the meantime.

A case can be made the structure, team aspect, and safety protocols of a football team better protect those student-athletes from COVID-19 than the alternative lifestyle and situation because the virus isn’t leaving any time soon. Unfortunately, it’s August 12th and the major conferences aren’t on the same page, and the NCAA is hiding under its bed.

At least for now, the Big 12 is going to move forward with football, but who knows what this looks like in two weeks? There are no easy answers. Ah, shit. There's that damn COVID-19 two-week timeline again. After five months of this, my brain is programmed to it.

6) Top priority hoops target set for five-star ranking…


Top UT hoops target Daimion Collins just became even more important. After getting another look at him recently, Eric Bossi believes Colins is a top 10 prospect overall in 2021. This remains a fierce Red River battle for his commitment. For the Longhorns, he’d be the perfect replacement for Greg Brown III when he moves on to the NBA.

7) Scanning the rest of the sports globe…
--- It isn’t a surprise the MLB season has produced some very bizarre results so far along with its constantly changing schedule. Charlie Blackmon is hitting .500. .500! Carlos Santana has a 32.0 BB% Babe Ruth never walked that much, and Barry Bonds only beat the number twice despite the league wanting to intentionally walk him at an astronomical rate during his peak. After another dominant start last night, Longhorn signee Dylan Bundy emerged as one of the frontrunners for the Cy Young award. Jose Iglesias is hitting .395 and hasn’t walked once this season.

Perhaps the most surprising thing, though, is even with guys like Blackmon and Donovan Salano hitting well above .400 currently, is MLB’s extremely low BABIP. Nobody, including those inside baseball, can put their finger on it. The Ringer’s Ben Lindbergh did a deep dive and presented some good theories.

--- In his first 102 MLB games, Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis, Jr., who currently leads baseball in this area for 2020 and has more stolen bases than 20 MLB teams, has accumulated 5.3 fWAR; put that on a 162-game timeline, and it’s 8.4 fWAR. Since 2010, the hitters with a season of 8.4 fWAR or more:

Mike Trout, Alex Bregman, Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson, Miguel Cabrera, Buster Posey, Jacoby Ellsbury, Josh Hamilton.

That’s it. That’s the list. Tatis, Jr. is just 21-years-old, and has areas of his game where he can still improve dramatically (strikeout rate, allowing his elite instincts and athleticism to show more in his defense). Soon, he will become the young face of baseball. With his loud hair to match his loud talent, aggressive nature in every area of the game, and joyful personality, no player better represents the, “let the kids play” movement MLB is trying to create.

--- Currently, the Astros pitching staff, decimated by injuries, has a 4.72 xFIP after blowing a late lead last night against a bad Giants team. There are only four teams in baseball with a worse xFIP: Pirates, Mariners, Marlins, Giants. Woof. Unfortunately for Houston, Ryan Pressly looks like he isn’t healthy and there aren’t reinforcements in sight. If Houston is going to shake its funk, it’s going to need its offense to carry almost all the weight.

--- The Rockets have Russ and the Beard. The Mavs have an exciting, future superstar in Luka Doncic and an excellent second piece in Kristaps Porzingis. What do the Spurs have?

Hey, no team wins titles forever. While San Antonio’s player personnel doesn’t have the bright future shared by those other teams in Texas, there’s a guy Spurs fans should be excited about: Keldon Johnson.

From a June 2019 column:

“I’ve also seen a lot of mock drafts linking Kentucky guard Keldon Johnson to the Spurs. As a Rockets fan, that would make me cringe. Johnson is one of the toughest, most competitive prospects I’ve ever covered, and I’d be surprised if he’s not a solid rotation player in the NBA for a long time. I’d put P.J. Washington in that boat as well.”

Man, it hurts. Johnson and I share the same birthday, he’s one of my favorite AAU guys I’ve ever covered, and he’s going to terrorize my favorite NBA team for years.

It’s cliché to say, “that was such a Spurs pick,” but there haven’t been many recent draft picks who fit that better than Johnson, who the Longhorns finished second for in recruiting. And after a 24-point, 11-rebound performance yesterday, Johnson continues to utilize his time in The Bubble to show he’s going to be a longtime quality starter in the NBA.



8) Anything and everything…
--- I don’t know how I lived so long without Ron Swanson in my life. We’re about to wrap up Season 4 of Parks and Recreation and have been hooked for a long, long time. I feel like every character in the show has really grown on me and started to show more of those occasional sequences when they take over the screen.

Well, I have to say Tom Haverford hasn’t had quite that same effect. Aziz Ansari does a great job with the role, and some of the unpredictable one-liners are excellent. But there are times when it’s a bit of an annoying act, although that’s what it’s supposed to be.

--- Big thumbs up for Zilker Brewing’s Mad Strata Hazy IPA. The Strawberry is definitely present, but not at all overflowing; good, juicy flavor. Thought it was better than the recent Friends with Benefits II collaboration with Southern Heights. Also tried Clown Shoes’ hazy and that gets two big thumbs down. Blah.

--- Working on some grips in the McComas house.
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When my wife gets up with Jack before Willie and I make it out of bed, our four-legged family member is always smart enough to move over and take over her pillow. He seemed a little depressed a couple weeks ago, but this week he’s been his old self and is especially fired up to go pick up Jack in the late afternoon.
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The little man loves to smile.
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Yes, I'm transitioning from my smiling son to Florida Man...

---

9) The best thing I read this week… is from BBC News: ‘It took 32 years, but I finally found my kidnapped son’
 
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