Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend: (The problems on offense....)
- Thread starter Ketchum
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I'm beginning to think the only person who benefits from Ewers' continuing to start is QE, with the HOPE being he regains his mojo. Those stats on Ewers are absolutely crushing--especially considering we're talking about a player in his THIRD year. I would absolutely give Arch the opportunity to take the reins and get a jump start on '25 and '26, and I think he would give us a better chance to win right now
Barcelona fans are flying high at work today!Man, Barcelona dog-walked Real Madrid 4-0 in the Bernabeau. It's a result that is so emphatic that I'm not fully sure how I should process it.
Sark has to get this offense operating in more parts of the field.
- Nov 16, 2004
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When you shit kick your biggest rival it's a good day. And it's not like OU who is trash this year. Thought that was thoroughly enjoyable. That is the reigning European champions who added arguably the best player on the planet right now. They had not lost a game that mattered in quite some time.
"(Sell) Sam played with the following NFL skill players: Devin Duvernay, Collin Johnson, Lil'Jordan Humphrey, Keaontay Ingram, Andrew Beck, Jared Wiley, Jordan Whittington, Roschon Johnson, and Bijan Robinson. Let's not pretend that he was a one-man gang that was always surrounded by bums. No, in general, he did not do more with less. I completely reject that notion."
I'm not opening up this week's column with concerns about Quinn Ewers.
Or the Texas offensive line. Or the Texas running backs. Or even a wide receiver unit that people really should apologize for daring to compare to last season's group.
As the Texas football team gets ready to head into a bye week with one foot into the first-ever 12-team college football playoff that begins in 54 days, my issue is less about the individual parts of Steve Sarkisian's offense and more about the sum of the collected parts.
By the end of Saturday night's win over Vanderbilt, the Texas offense had been found out. The passing game was performing at the levels of the first half of the Georgia game. The running game was admittedly solid, but not so solid that it could punt any drive into the end zone. Explosive plays were suddenly occurring with a premium. Sloppiness was constantly popping up. Vanderbilt defensive backs were sitting on every route, daring Texas to do anything down the field.
Texas averaged 3.1 yards per play, 1.4 yards per rush, and completed two passes in the fourth quarter, while nearly posting as many yards in penalties (45) as it gained in total offense (51).
That's so not remotely good enough as a standard for the future that actual poor standards are blushing in comparison. When Sarkisian says that his team needs to play to a high standard, and not to its weekly opponent, this is the opposite of what he's aiming for.
With the weeks that will ultimately determine how the season is remembered looming in the near-distance,
Sarkisian has to put his Humpty Dumpty offense back together again ... or else.
Let's take a look at the various areas of concern.
No. 2 - Quinn Ewers ...
Since returning from his oblique injury three weeks ago, here's a look at Ewers' performance levels by quarter:
OU 1st Q: 3 of 5 for 13 yards, OT, 1 INT (41.8 rating)
OU 2nd Q: 10 of 12 for 109 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT (181.7 rating)
OU 3rd Q: 5 of 9 for 71 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (121.8 rating)
OU 4th Q: 2 of 3 for 6 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (6.4 rating)
Georgia 1Q: 5 of 8 for 17 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (80.4 rating)
Georgia 2Q: 1 of 4 for 0 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT (-25.00)
Georgia 3Q: 7 of 10 for 90 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT (211.6 rating)
Georgia 4Q: 12 of 21 for 104 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (98.7 rating)
Vandy 1Q: 12 of 13 for 126 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT (201.3 rating)
Vandy 2Q: 7 of 8 for 85 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT (218.0 rating)
Vandy 3Q: 6 of 9 for 39 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT (80.8 rating)
Vandy 4Q: 2 of 7 for 36 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (71.8 rating)
For those who don't completely understand the context, know that the nation's lowest-rated passer on the official NCAA website this week is Wyoming's Evan Svoboda, who is the only player in the country with a sub-100 rating (94.58). In seven of the quarters that he's played since his return, Ewers has posted sub-100 ratings, and in six of those quarters, his passer rating was below the season number for the worst quarterback in the country. Another Ewers' quarter (OU third quarter) would rank 106th in the country, respectively, if slotted in this week's current NCAA individual passing leaders rankings.
It means that since his return, Ewers has delivered four absolute elite of the elite-level quarters of action and eight quarters of the worst or the worst-level quarters of action as it relates to non-subjective passing efficiency data.
Heading into this weekend, Ewers ranked 128th nationally in air yards per attempt (5.65) and 115th in percentage of throws 20 or more yards downfield (9.3%), numbers that were impossible to forget during the Vanderbilt game as the naked eyes of the Orangebloods universe watched pass after pass after pass after pass after pass delivered within a 10-yard window of the line of scrimmage.
According to Pro Football Focus, Ewers has thrown 31.0% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage this season, while 36.9% are within 0-9 yards of the line of scrimmage. By comparison, only 25.0% of Arch Mannings's passes have been behind the line of scrimmage and only 28.6% of his throws have been between 0-9 yards. Meanwhile, Manning's instinct to throw the ball 20+ yards down the field (20.2%) is one of the reasons why he would lead the nation in yards per attempt if he had enough attempts to qualify.
I'm not suggesting that Manning be the starter. I'm merely pointing out that all of the data surrounding Ewers isn't a byproduct of Sarkisian's system with Ewers as the centerpiece.
The rub is, according to PFF, Ewers only has a passing efficiency of 136.8 when he throws the ball 10+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage, while he has a 162.3 rating when throwing the ball under nine yards from the line of scrimmage. As things stand, Manning has a season efficiency rating of 255.3 when throwing the ball 10+ yards down the field, while also having a much higher rating when throwing under nine yards from the line of scrimmage.
Simply put ...
a. Ewers must play better.
b. Ewers must throw the ball more down the field.
c. Ewers must achieve more success when throwing down the field.
No. 3 - The offensive line ...
It's all been falling apart throughout the last two games, at least when comparing the level of play by this group compared to what was produced in the first half of the season.
It feels like three areas of this group need to be focused on ...
a. Penalties
The mountain of flags thrown against this group simply has to slow down significantly. If you have a passing game that wants to throw the ball short, constantly putting it in awful down-and-distance situations is begging for problems.
It's not rocket science. Texas had a penalty by an offensive lineman or tight end in every second-half possession against Vanderbilt outside of the drive that ended on play No. 3 because of an Ewers interception.
Cam Williams has to clean up his game. The entire line does, but Williams has been called for 11 penalties (per PFF) in eight games and has only played two clean games all season.
b. The right side of the line
The combination of Williams and starting guard D.J. Campbell hasn't been good enough in the last two games.
Period.
c. Protecting Quinn as a pass protection unit
This doesn't all fall on the offensive line because you have to include the running backs and tight ends to get a full grasp of the failings that have occurred as a working unit, but alarm bells are going off.
Ewers has a 105.23 quarterback efficiency rating, is completing only 48.9% of his passes, and averaging 6.0 yards per attempt when pressured this season (per PFF).
Teams have figured out that the way to break the Texas offensive passing game is to get to Ewers because he'll either ineffectively throw it short or the line will commit a penalty. The rub is that if you blitz and don't get to Ewers, he'll kill opposing defenses.
Too often in the past couple of weeks, Ewers is getting pressured by teams that don't need to blitz to create pressure. Opposing defensive linemen are winning too many battles.
These are all areas that Kyle Flood has to improve.
No. 4 - The running backs ...
It's possible that nothing can be done about the situation at running back and it's also possible that all of the issues at running back would still exist if CJ Baxter was healthy.
Tre Wisner has been solid this season, but his 5.3 yards per carry is largely lifted because of a season-best game against Oklahoma, as he's been held under 5 yards per carry in five out of seven games. Meanwhile, my guy Jaydon Blue is averaging 4.4 yards per carry this season and you can't call that anything other than a borderline disaster after averaging 6.1 yards per carry a season ago. Baxter averaged 4.8 yards per carry last year, so it's hard to say with certainty that he would have impacted these numbers significantly if healthy.
The bottom line is that Jonathon Brooks, Bijan Robinson, and Roschon Johnson aren't walking through the locker room doors and what's left behind has been below any resemblance of high-level standards.
In addition to the not-good-enough numbers, the blocking at the position has also been a problem in recent weeks.
These are all areas of things Tashard Choice has to improve, if at all possible.
No. 5 - The wide receivers ...
Since Ewers returned to the line-up, here is how the wide receiver unit has performed in each game:
vs. Oklahoma: 8 catches for 105 yards and 0 touchdowns
vs. Georgia: 9 catches for 100 yards and 1 touchdown
at Vanderbilt: 13 receptions for 157 yards and 3 touchdowns
The offense just isn't getting enough out of the players available. Ryan Wingo is averaging 22.3 yards per game in SEC play. DeAndre Moore had six catches for 97 yards against Vanderbilt, but had only 3 combined catches for 25 yards in games against Georgia and Oklahoma. Matthew Golden is averaging 36 yards per game over the last three games. Silas Bolden and Johntay Cook are basically non-factors.
All of this is happening while Isaiah Bond hasn't been able to feature because of injury.
In addition to the not-good-enough numbers, the blocking at the position has also been a problem in recent weeks.
These are all areas of things Chris Jackson has to improve, if at all possible.
No. 7 - About the defense ...
In the event you're concerned that too much of the column is based on negative things, take a look at these defensive numbers:
Scoring Defense: (11.50) 2nd nationally
Total Defense: (241.2): 1st nationally
Passing yards allowed: (135.8) 3rd nationally
Rushing yards Allowed: (105.5) 20th nationally
3rd down defense: (28.4%) 8th nationally
Red-Zone Percentage: (.733) 14th nationally
Red-Zone Scores Allowed: (8) 2nd nationally
Red-Zone Passing TDs Allowed: (2) 2nd nationally
Red-Zone Rushing TDs Allowed: (4) 6th nationally
First Downs: (13.1 per game) 1st nationally
Team Passing Efficiency: (90.77) 2nd nationally
Team Sacks: (20) 16th nationally
Team Tackles For Loss: (6.9 per game) 23rd nationally
Turnovers Gained: (17) 8th nationally
No. 7 - If I had a vote that mattered ...
1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Miami
5. Texas
6. Penn State
7. Tennessee
8. Clemson
9. Indiana
10. Notre Dame
Heisman Trophy
1. Cam Ward (Miami)
2. Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)
3 Dillon Gabrel (Oregon)
4. Travis Hunter (Colorado)
5. Kurtis Rourke (Indiana)
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I still think Texas heads into College Station with a 10-1 record, but the game in Fayetteville is ominous.
(Sell) Sam played with the following NFL skill players: Devin Duvernay, Collin Johnson, Lil'Jordan Humphrey, Keaontay Ingram, Andrew Beck, Jared Wiley, Jordan Whittington, Roschon Johnson, and Bijan Robinson. Let's not pretend that he was a one-man gang that was always surrounded by bums. No, in general, he did not do more with less. I completely reject that notion.
(Sell) I've always been at a 10 with this game. It's the second-most difficult game on the entire schedule.
(Sell) It's at least a 9, even if I think Texas will win the game.
(Sell) My instincts say no, but perhaps I'd change my mind if I had more context to "Texas trailing".
(Buy) I absolutely expect it to be better. It's going to be loaded.
(Sell) I'm kind of done giving the offense the benefit of the doubt. Some really good defenses are on the horizon.
(Buy) 10000000000%
(Buy) I always hold back to some degree. There's never a completely unvarnished, unhinged expression of thought.
(Buy) I believe Arch is better. I have been saying that at least on the low-key for the last few weeks.
(Sell/Buy) I don't know what to tell you about the Arkansas roady. There's absolutely some real risk in a terrible weekend occurring. Yes, Green will be a good practice exam for the game in College Station. It definitely won't hurt.
(Sell) I don't believe that at all.
(Buy) Arch's distribution in the passing game mirrors what Alabama did under Sark.
(Buy) Probably by less than a field goal. Maybe a pick'em?
(Sell) All you're telling me with that suggestion is that the band-aid should pulled off slowly instead of quickly IF the band-aid needs to be pulled.
(Sell) He'll be in the NFL next season.
(Buy) He's hit something. He hasn't recorded an official stat in the last two games.
No. 9 – Scattershooting all over the place …
... Let's just not speak of what happened to the volleyball team in mid-week ...
... Game this week to enjoy on the bye week: No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State (11 am on Fox)
... Ohio State is nothing special.
... Notre Dame really beat the hell out of Navy. Isn't that a federal crime?
... SEC Thoughts: That Aggies team looked like a real threat in the second half after a pretty weak first half. Mess around with that team and you can find out. Missouri should be ashamed of itself for that performance at Alabama. Woof. OU's going to need to win in Columbia to make a bowl game. That's not an impossible mission. Arkansas' season will be defined by its next two games... at home against Ole Miss (this Saturday) and Texas (in three weeks).
... Ho-hum, the Texans are just on pace to win 12 or 13 games ...
... Bijan Robinson is on pace for 1,173 yards rushing, 1,661 all-purpose rushing/receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns in his second NFL season.
... Aaron Rodgers has the same record with the Jets as the Browns have after this weekend. Lulz ...
... Kevin Durant has passed 29,000 career points, joining LeBron James, Kareem Abdel-Jabbar, Karl Malone, Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan, Dirk Nowitzki and Wilt Chamberlain. Some company. The dude just turned 36 years old and he dropped 31 points and 9 boards on 10 of 21 shooting in a win over the Mavericks.
... Ohtani's gonna play in game 3? Ohtani's gonna play in game 3!
... Did the game one walk-off clinch Freddie Freeman as a Hall of Famer?
... Max Holloway got knocked the hell out at UFC 308. I guess there's a first time for everything.
... Man, Barcelona dog-walked Real Madrid 4-0 in the Bernabeau. It's a result that is so emphatic that I'm not fully sure how I should process it.
... Premier League Randomness: Liverpool/Arsenal played what it ended up being a pretty fair result. I found it interesting that Arsenal basically sat in deep and played for a 2-1 game coming out of halftime, as it created a mere .05 xG from halftime until the 81st minute. At home, needing 3 points? Cowards. That slate of Saturday 9 am games didn't look like much on paper, but the final combined 30 minutes was borderline insane. Brighton has no business dropping points to Wolves at home after taking a 2-0 lead. Woof. That would keep me up for a week. I didn't watch a second of the Spurs game... what the hell was that? It bothers me that Man United is going to get Ten Hag fired.
No. 10 – The List: Keith Whitley
If Keith Whitley never died and had found a way to get on top of his demons... what happens?
Is he the GOAT? Is he just outside of King George territory? Does he become forgotten in time?
Something I was thinking about this week while spending some time listening to him.
Last 5 Out: It Ain't Nothin', Hard Livin, Some Old Side Road, Brotherly Love and
Til a Tear Becomes a Rose
10. I'm Over You
A top 5 song for Whitley on Spotify with more than 33 million listens.
A duet with Whitley and Lorrie Morgan
9. Homecoming '63
The second Top 10 hit of Whitley's career.
8. Ten Feet Away
Our boy could simply sink the hell out of a ballad.
7. I Never Go Around Mirrors
The most underrated song among the best of his best songs.
6. I'm No Stranger to the Rain
It hit No. 1 on April 8, 1989, and one month and a day later, Whitley was dead.
5. I Wonder Do You Think of Me
This was the first single released after he died... you're going to hear this word again in a bit, but, haunting...
4. Miami, My Amy
The catchiest song of his catalog.
3. Tell Lorrie I Love Her
Absolutely haunting.
2. When You Say Nothing At All
It feels like this song would be the consensus No. 1 for Whitley, but I prefer a different song.
1. Don't Close Your Eyes
This song makes me ask a hell of a lot of questions, but the bottom line is that the pain of him singing for the love of his life to forget about some other guy is a hard listen packed into incredibly painful storytelling/singing.
Your sell on Sam is baffling.
The NFL talent that Quinn has PLAYED with, not just on the same roster, (often injured Whittington, hardly used Wiley I'm looking at you) but actually played with...far out ways the talent that Sam played with. Especially when you consider usage. Wiley developed into an NFL player at TCU.
Thats only looking at skill positions btw... when including the line Sam played with (garbage by comparison) to what we've had over Quinn's tenure it's not even close.
I completely reject your rejection of that notion @Ketchum
@Ketchum Are you serious about Ewers not doing less with more?
Sure, Sam had Bijan, but as we all know, Bijan was severely underutilized at UT, even under Sark.
Ewers did have the best RB in the NFL draft last season, particularly in his Bama win. Jonathan Brooks would have been a 1st round draft pick if not for the injury.
Sam did not have the fastest receiver in the draft, let alone a 1st round pick at WR.
Sam did not have a 2nd round WR, in AD Mitchell.
Sam did not have a 4th round pick in TE Sanders.
Sam also did not have the best LT to ever grace the 40 acres in Left Tackle Kelvin Banks Jr
Are you hating on Sam, or are you blinded by Ewers reality???
Sam did more with less. Ewers has done less with more. Period.
I think Sark still believes Ewers can play plenty well enough over the last games on the schedule.
Vanderbilt was just another data point. I think Sark is confident in himself that he can make that improvement happen through coaching and play calling. And maybe more physical healing by Quinn. (He has denied that the oblique injury should be affecting Quinn but we know Sark is never forthcoming about injuries. )
And Sark believes the rest of the coaching staff can get the other position groups to improve also.
I don't think Sark has any doubts at all that Ewers is going to be the beat choice as QB for the rest of the season, but it has nothing to do with loyalty to an individual vs choosing what's best for the team.
Vanderbilt was just another data point. I think Sark is confident in himself that he can make that improvement happen through coaching and play calling. And maybe more physical healing by Quinn. (He has denied that the oblique injury should be affecting Quinn but we know Sark is never forthcoming about injuries. )
And Sark believes the rest of the coaching staff can get the other position groups to improve also.
I don't think Sark has any doubts at all that Ewers is going to be the beat choice as QB for the rest of the season, but it has nothing to do with loyalty to an individual vs choosing what's best for the team.
Ewers has had this program in the top 5 for 2 consecutive seasons and won a Big 12 title. He has a wining record against OU, has won big games on the road that Sam never did and has been to the playoffs.
Sam did not do that.
What on earth are we talking about?
I think Quinn will do well in that circumstance.
In the first place he has a week off to continue recovery.
In the second place, I didn't think his injury (in terms of arm strength) was really the problem vs Vandy. In particular I was glad to see him really rip that ball down the seam to Gunnar Helm--I think in the 2nd quarter. It wasn't an over-the-top throw but a fit-it-into-a-tight-window throw that had to be accurate and really driven hard. That's the best throw I've seen from Ewers since he was injured.
I really do think the problem vs Vandy was Sark tightening up and playing it safe with a big lead from late 2nd quarter on. That, and obviously the penalties.
Now, I'm an Arch guy. But I also think people are pronouncing Quinn dead way too early. Quinn is still the guy that's already been a very good college QB and the idea that he's now completely incompetent is going way overboard.
If players were stocks, I'd buy Quinn here.
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One wonders if Cam should be playing RG with Goosby or Baker taking RT. Then DJ can compete with Connor at LG.
I haven't seen a lot of evidence of Texas really trying to get its best 5 OL on the field the last two years.
I haven't seen a lot of evidence of Texas really trying to get its best 5 OL on the field the last two years.
Sure, but also because I think there's lots of upside.
Perhaps he has been over-estimated previously. But now he's definitely under-estimated.
Allegedly both Goosby and Baker are looking good. Last year Cam was around and could have played guard when they were struggling on the interior. Or else he could have come on at RT and Jones moved inside. I have no idea how these guys look, because they don't play. But I'm not seeing a lot of flexibility in the approach.
I just don't think there's a guy that isn't on the field that needs to be.
It’s all about Ewers. His lack of development for downfield passing and his lack of running the ball when needed has made the entire offensive unit look bad.
Thanks. If you haven't read the article "aDOT" you should check it out. The number of long and intermediate passes Quinn is throwing continues to decrease while the number of passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage is on the rise. With a poor running game declining in yds per carry, our offense has a problem and our adversaries know it.
It’s wild to me that through 9 pages of comments, no mention of the phrase extension of the run game.
Those aDOT numbers are not quite as useful when you remember that well known, rather obvious concept that has replaced our efforts to establish the run - especially in the first half every week. Ketch conveniently avoided that point in the original writeup.
*OB Crowd*: Quinn holds the ball too long!
*also OB Crowd*: Quinn never gets past his first read!
*also OB Crowd*: Too many check downs!
…as if any of us know what was called/read/audibled other than the formation.
Modern offensive schemes aren’t plays drawn in the sand with pre-determined routes. Routes are adapted pre-snap, during motion, and on-the-fly based on coverages, zones, leverages, rotations, and who knows what else that we miss while we’re cracking open beer #4.
We’re not playing against scout teams. Defenses scheme to take away what we do well…sometimes it works.
Maybe the guy making $10M/yr is qualified to decide which of his future NFL quarterbacks gives us the best chance to win. What’s his performance bonus, $2M if they make the championship game?
Those aDOT numbers are not quite as useful when you remember that well known, rather obvious concept that has replaced our efforts to establish the run - especially in the first half every week. Ketch conveniently avoided that point in the original writeup.
*OB Crowd*: Quinn holds the ball too long!
*also OB Crowd*: Quinn never gets past his first read!
*also OB Crowd*: Too many check downs!
…as if any of us know what was called/read/audibled other than the formation.
Modern offensive schemes aren’t plays drawn in the sand with pre-determined routes. Routes are adapted pre-snap, during motion, and on-the-fly based on coverages, zones, leverages, rotations, and who knows what else that we miss while we’re cracking open beer #4.
We’re not playing against scout teams. Defenses scheme to take away what we do well…sometimes it works.
Maybe the guy making $10M/yr is qualified to decide which of his future NFL quarterbacks gives us the best chance to win. What’s his performance bonus, $2M if they make the championship game?
Sam beat Georgia and we got a Sugar Bowl win?
Quinn lost to Georgia, and has not delivered any post season hardware to date.
And also, Sark is the reason we’ve been top 5 the past few years, not Quinn alone. It can be argued that without X, Sweat, or Byron Murphy, the team doesn’t do as well last season.
Did Quinn win the Heisman over Jaydon Daniels last season? Was he even runner up?
You’re giving Ewers credit for something Sark built and that a team did together. Without X, Sweat, and Byron Murphy there’s no way we would have had the success we had last season.
This is showing up in the receiving and run D statistics this season.
Sam did more with less. Period.
I agree and I think maybe this bye week will be enough to help get Quinn closer to 100%. I thought he looked better this week and with a couple of more weeks that should help.
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