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Houston to Big 12

... unless Red McCombs just wants Texas to move on from the Big 12. If that's what he wants, then adding Houston makes a lot of sense, because that would potentially be the next domino to fall if that's your agenda.

On one side you'd have the conference adding a team that doesn't expand the footprint, and therefor, doesn't expand the appeal for ESPN or Fox or whoever to take on a Big 12 Network.

On the other side you'd have the conference pushing for Texas to drop the LHN, meaning Texas would lose money the likes of which wouldn't be close to being made up for by their share of the LHN (even if it wasn't divided up equally).

The net result would be Texas saying "no, thanks, not while we're still in the conference" to the latter, and setting up their plans for when tv contracts are up for renewal.

"Congrats, Houston! You're in the Big 12... which, after 4+ teams decide to depart, is going to be looking at MWC and other AAC teams to fill out the ranks."
 
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What U of H officials (and apparently Red McCombs) don't understand is that, if the Big 12 ends up adding fewer than 4 teams (honestly, probably fewer than 6) and one of them is Houston, Texas will likely have 1 foot out the door, waiting for the opportune time to make the jump to the Pac 12 or Big 10 or something.

Texas, like OU, already has one foot out the door. Texas is also uninterested in adding any schools, because none of the realistically available schools do anything to address the Big 12's core problems. You can add schools in new markets, but those schools don't necessarily deliver those markets to any meaningful extent. Every realistic candidate would be a welfare case in the Big 12. Diluting this conference with a bunch of mid-majors with small to tiny fan bases is not going to make the Big 12 any more attractive to Texas for the long term.
 
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I'll be the 1st to admit that all this conference expansion talk makes my head spin. There doesn't appear to be 1 vastly superior option for UT here so I'm not sure where we'll end up but I have a few hunches which I'll share later.

But for now I can tell you this . . . I know damn well where we won't end up and that's in the Big 12 saddled up next to Houston High School.

So why do I think this? It's due to my perception of what UT really values: Maximizing . . . 1. Cash Flow/Brand Dev 2. Athletics dept and sports teams 3. Academic prestige and standing.

So more money, better sports teams and superior Academic standing. UH doesn't add any of these things for UT. In fact it could be argued UH would have a negative impact on money and academics. Sorry UH.

So what course of action offers these things 4 Texas? Not staying or expanding in the Big 12 that's for sure. Only by adding ND could that occur and that ain't happening. So my best guess is we're biding our time right now and looking to maximize our short term revenues via LHN $.

Long term I think we leave the Big 12 and go to the PAC or the BIG 10 or the ACC and I think the powers that be already understand this on some levels. In my opinion, when u keep ur cards close to the vest and stay quiet it's because u already know what ur gonna do and don't wanna tip ur hand. Texas is behaving this way now in all this expansion talk.

If I were to lay money on it, which I won't, I'd bet UT ends up in the PAC with academics being the difference maker there. Being associated with Cal Berkley and Stanford trumps anything in the BIG or ACC. Sorry Northwestern and Michigan and everyone in the ACC! And the SEC is a non starter IMO because of their cheating ways.

Like I said above there's no perfect slam dunk scenario but it's going to be fun watching all this happen anyway. Though major changes are probably still several years away. As 4 now . . . UT football is only 100 days away!!
 
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I have no say in what happens, so what I want means nothing. In its present state, I see nothing positive happening by adding Houston. They do not add anything the conference does not already have?

But, if you Texas guys are so hell bent on leaving the B12 anyway, why do you care who the B12 invites?
 
I'm not hell bent on leaving. I just don't want the Big XII to become a mid major by inviting a bunch of lessers to join up.
 
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If the Big 12 can't bring in a Clemson, Florida State, Notre Dame, Arkansas, LSU, etc type of program, they should just stand pat. We don't need a Cincinnati, UCF, UH, So. Florida, etc type of program, all of whom bring nothing to the table and have zero national appeal.
 
If the Big 12 can't bring in a Clemson, Florida State, Notre Dame, Arkansas, LSU, etc type of program, they should just stand pat. We don't need a Cincinnati, UCF, UH, So. Florida, etc type of program, all of whom bring nothing to the table and have zero national appeal.

Not trying to start an argument here, just honestly curious. If a conference network were the deciding factor for Clemson and FSU joining the Big 12 (see the ACC's documented repeated failure to get a network launched), and the Longhorn Network was the only hold-up in launching said network - assuming the B12 found a way to make Texas whole on the Longhorn Network revenue front - would Texas be willing to give up the Longhorn Network to bring in those schools?
 
There is a reason that UH did not come along to the Big12 & a reason they were not invited when TCU was --- do not forget that. They will not become a member to the conference-
 
Not trying to start an argument here, just honestly curious. If a conference network were the deciding factor for Clemson and FSU joining the Big 12 (see the ACC's documented repeated failure to get a network launched), and the Longhorn Network was the only hold-up in launching said network - assuming the B12 found a way to make Texas whole on the Longhorn Network revenue front - would Texas be willing to give up the Longhorn Network to bring in those schools?

I'll humor you here. A little while back a reporter wrote an article claiming that the only real way Big 12 expansion made sense was if they added a Big 12 Network and it made money-sense. He did the math behind it all, though he admitted erring on the optimistic side as far as money and convincing the TV networks of a school's potential value. He DID go on the assumption that no Power 5 conference teams (or Notre Dame) would join, but part of the discussion is still relevant to what you're asking.

He claimed that he only way it made money sense was if the conference went to at least 14 members, and all of the members were targeted at convincing TV networks that they could claim the population of a large state. Basically, his view was that Memphis (to claim the state of Tennessee), Cincy (to claim the state of Ohio), and UCF (to claim the state of Florida) were all key, and then the 4th school would either be USF (if the networks needed more convincing because they didn't think UCF had enough pull in the Florida market), UConn (for a 4th state), or BYU (for Utah, but also because they have a brand that goes beyond just the state there). He admitted that convincing ESPN or Fox or whoever that any of these schools could claim to have enough pull in their states would be an uphill battle. He also said that, yeah, the current Big 12 members would have to make some monetary concessions to appease Texas to help them drop the LHN and sign on. In addition, he pointed out that the 4 new schools would probably see value in just being invited to join a higher-tier conference so they'd probably be fine taking less money than the 10 current members (and probably hope that if they develop their program after being invited that they'd eventually earn a bigger piece of the pie).

So, an obvious difference is that Florida State and Clemson wouldn't have much trouble convincing a TV network that, yes, they should be able to claim that they bring the Florida and South Carolina audiences. So that's a plus. On the flip side, the (rather generous) math that the reporter (whose article I can't find right this second) suggested that it would take 3 or 4 large-population states, plus the incoming schools taking a smaller cut of the pie, for the Big 12 Network payout to make up for the LHN. Your plan brings in one of the states in question plus a state that is lower in population than either Ohio or Tennessee so the odds are that the math would work out to a lower amount than that reporter's pie-in-the-sky idea that the Big 12 could claim the full viewership of at least Ohio, Tennessee, and Florida. Beyond that, FSU and Clemson would probably not be on board with the whole "we're willing to take a smaller piece of the pie... we're just happy to be here!" perspective that Memphis of UCF might be overjoyed about.

Now look, I get where you're coming from. For one thing, I definitely feel like the traditional cable model is going to start having to evolve or be replaced. More people are going to find ways to get their cable a la carte. More people are going to unplug from traditional cable packages for alternative viewing methods. I firmly believe that, at some point here, the teams and match ups that bring the most actual eyes to their TVs (or whatever devices they watch games on) will be far more valuable than how many states and metro areas you can try to convince the TV networks that you can claim. And in those cases, brands like Oklahoma, Florida State, Texas and Clemson will be the ones who make the difference.

I also am a person who thinks that the Big 12 failed big-time by taking the passive approach to expansion. There was a point where the ACC looked shaky, and either the Big 12 should have gone hard after FSU and Clemson then (and seen who came along), gone after the "weak link" of Miami (who was worried they'd be left out of expansion) and then try to real the others in, or made a deal with the Big 10 and SEC to give all 3 conferences a chance to claim some prizes by pressuring the ACC from all sides and filling up each conference to about 16 members. I really think that if the Big 12 had been able to get a group of schools like Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, and Clemson... that it would have suddenly been one of the more diversely laid-out conferences and, when Notre Dame needed a home for their non-football teams after the Big East was no longer viable, it would have come down to the more regional and media-strict Big 10, or the conference spread across the midwest, midatlantic, southeast, and Texas with more negotiable media guidelines... and neither of them would have to to let ND make some sort of "but football stays independent" deal. Sweeten the deal by letting them pick school #16 (I'd imagine that Louisville (for proximity), Pitt (for tradition), Virginia Tech (for football prestige, and Navy (for an even longer tradition)) would all be in the running, and if it sealed the deal with Notre Dame, any of them would be acceptable. I really think this COULD have happened if the Big 12 had been the aggressor instead of sitting around and watching to see what happened, and then, who knows. The LHN and Notre Dame's tv deals would be things to discuss. But as someone else said, that ship, from all appearances, has sailed. The ACC is more stable than it was when the original talk about poaching some of their teams came up. The Big 12 had just made two reasonably strong school additions, negotiated good bowl match-ups, and were getting way better TV contracts than most expected back then. Now they are giving off the appearance of discord, desperation, and fear that they might fall behind as a conference. And whether it's justified or not (since clearly the Pac 12 and ACC each have their own reasons not to be completely happy with their current situations), the media is mostly focusing on the Big 12 as being in a position of weakness.

At this point, the odds are that there's not a way to make all the current Big 12 teams happy, make big-name newcomers happy, AND make Texas happy. And if there was, it would require something way bigger than the Big 12 is currently considering now (and it's something that would have been way more realistic back before the ACC made their deal with Notre Dame, added Louisville, and signed their Grant of Rights). And right now, the LHN isn't just about money (but it's that too), it's about UT's brand (especially if we can get back to where we belong in the big sports). It adds to the strength of the deal we might eventually make, if that's what it comes to when the Big 12 Grant of Rights has concluded, both in the money it brings in to help continued improvement of our facilities and staffs, and, if it eventually comes down to it, as a way to say "ok Pac 12/Big 10/whoever... we're willing to adapt and/or get rid of the LHN... if moving to your conference is worth us doing so. Let's talk about that."
 
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I'll humor you here. A little while back a reporter wrote an article claiming that the only real way Big 12 expansion made sense was if they added a Big 12 Network and it made money-sense. He did the math behind it all, though he admitted erring on the optimistic side as far as money and convincing the TV networks of a school's potential value. He DID go on the assumption that no Power 5 conference teams (or Notre Dame) would join, but part of the discussion is still relevant to what you're asking.

He claimed that he only way it made money sense was if the conference went to at least 14 members, and all of the members were targeted at convincing TV networks that they could claim the population of a large state. Basically, his view was that Memphis (to claim the state of Tennessee), Cincy (to claim the state of Ohio), and UCF (to claim the state of Florida) were all key, and then the 4th school would either be USF (if the networks needed more convincing because they didn't think UCF had enough pull in the Florida market), UConn (for a 4th state), or BYU (for Utah, but also because they have a brand that goes beyond just the state there). He admitted that convincing ESPN or Fox or whoever that any of these schools could claim to have enough pull in their states would be an uphill battle. He also said that, yeah, the current Big 12 members would have to make some monetary concessions to appease Texas to help them drop the LHN and sign on. In addition, he pointed out that the 4 new schools would probably see value in just being invited to join a higher-tier conference so they'd probably be fine taking less money than the 10 current members (and probably hope that if they develop their program after being invited that they'd eventually earn a bigger piece of the pie).

So, an obvious difference is that Florida State and Clemson wouldn't have much trouble convincing a TV network that, yes, they should be able to claim that they bring the Florida and South Carolina audiences. So that's a plus. On the flip side, the (rather generous) math that the reporter (whose article I can't find right this second) suggested that it would take 3 or 4 large-population states, plus the incoming schools taking a smaller cut of the pie, for the Big 12 Network payout to make up for the LHN. Your plan brings in one of the states in question plus a state that is lower in population than either Ohio or Tennessee so the odds are that the math would work out to a lower amount than that reporter's pie-in-the-sky idea that the Big 12 could claim the full viewership of at least Ohio, Tennessee, and Florida. Beyond that, FSU and Clemson would probably not be on board with the whole "we're willing to take a smaller piece of the pie... we're just happy to be here!" perspective that Memphis of UCF might be overjoyed about.

Now look, I get where you're coming from. For one thing, I definitely feel like the traditional cable model is going to start having to evolve or be replaced. More people are going to find ways to get their cable a la carte. More people are going to unplug from traditional cable packages for alternative viewing methods. I firmly believe that, at some point here, the teams and match ups that bring the most actual eyes to their TVs (or whatever devices they watch games on) will be far more valuable than how many states and metro areas you can try to convince the TV networks that you can claim. And in those cases, brands like Oklahoma, Florida State, Texas and Clemson will be the ones who make the difference.

I also am a person who thinks that the Big 12 failed big-time by taking the passive approach to expansion. There was a point where the ACC looked shaky, and either the Big 12 should have gone hard after FSU and Clemson then (and seen who came along), gone after the "weak link" of Miami (who was worried they'd be left out of expansion) and then try to real the others in, or made a deal with the Big 10 and SEC to give all 3 conferences a chance to claim some prizes by pressuring the ACC from all sides and filling up each conference to about 16 members. I really think that if the Big 12 had been able to get a group of schools like Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, and Clemson... that it would have suddenly been one of the more diversely laid-out conferences and, when Notre Dame needed a home for their non-football teams after the Big East was no longer viable, it would have come down to the more regional and media-strict Big 10, or the conference spread across the midwest, midatlantic, southeast, and Texas with more negotiable media guidelines... and neither of them would have to to let ND make some sort of "but football stays independent" deal. Sweeten the deal by letting them pick school #16 (I'd imagine that Louisville (for proximity), Pitt (for tradition), Virginia Tech (for football prestige, and Navy (for an even longer tradition)) would all be in the running, and if it sealed the deal with Notre Dame, any of them would be acceptable. I really think this COULD have happened if the Big 12 had been the aggressor instead of sitting around and watching to see what happened, and then, who knows. The LHN and Notre Dame's tv deals would be things to discuss. But as someone else said, that ship, from all appearances, has sailed. The ACC is more stable than it was when the original talk about poaching some of their teams came up. The Big 12 had just made two reasonably strong school additions, negotiated good bowl match-ups, and were getting way better TV contracts than most expected back then. Now they are giving off the appearance of discord, desperation, and fear that they might fall behind as a conference. And whether it's justified or not (since clearly the Pac 12 and ACC each have their own reasons not to be completely happy with their current situations), the media is mostly focusing on the Big 12 as being in a position of weakness.

At this point, the odds are that there's not a way to make all the current Big 12 teams happy, make big-name newcomers happy, AND make Texas happy. And if there was, it would require something way bigger than the Big 12 is currently considering now (and it's something that would have been way more realistic back before the ACC made their deal with Notre Dame, added Louisville, and signed their Grant of Rights). And right now, the LHN isn't just about money (but it's that too), it's about UT's brand (especially if we can get back to where we belong in the big sports). It adds to the strength of the deal we might eventually make, if that's what it comes to when the Big 12 Grant of Rights has concluded, both in the money it brings in to help continued improvement of our facilities and staffs, and, if it eventually comes down to it, as a way to say "ok Pac 12/Big 10/whoever... we're willing to adapt and/or get rid of the LHN... if moving to your conference is worth us doing so. Let's talk about that."

I knew someone over here knew just how the situation was set up, it just took several months of emotional responses to get someone to say it, good job! I also believe the LHN is not about money to Texas as much as it is made out to be. It is about the brand and the LHN and 15 million dollars is not going to be the aspect that changes the brand, so the LHN is not really the issue. Texas winning will solve everything for Texas and for the Big-12 as well. I have posted some on this board that the Big-12 is Texas and only Texas, the rest of us just get to hang out here.

The one thing I find a flaw with though is the disparity in views on the LHN. All of those that demand the LHN must stay in place if Texas remains in the Big-12 seem to be the first to want to jettison the network if Texas went to another conference. That is really not logical. Either the LHN has value or it doesn't and you have pretty much explained, it is icon value and pocket change.

As a Mountaineer, I am not sure a Big-12 Network is in WVU's best interest either. WVU does very well with our Tier 3 package - 2nd in the Big12 in revenue in that category, but Oklahoma and Kansas are right behind us. It is the other 6 that the need to work on their packages.

Rather than beat a dead horse on this issue over and over again, I am just glad to see a Longhorn validate what I have been thinking as well about the LHN. It is a sparkly bauble Texas holds on to because it agitates the Big12 members but it is a minimum value if any at all bargaining chip if Texas decides to move. Odd that.
 
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Not trying to start an argument here, just honestly curious. If a conference network were the deciding factor for Clemson and FSU joining the Big 12 (see the ACC's documented repeated failure to get a network launched), and the Longhorn Network was the only hold-up in launching said network - assuming the B12 found a way to make Texas whole on the Longhorn Network revenue front - would Texas be willing to give up the Longhorn Network to bring in those schools?

There is another factor here, which is IMG. It's not only Texas that has to be taken care of, it's IMG as well. We already know Texas gets $15 million a year from LHN (i.e. ESPN). However, IMG also gets a payout on top of the $15 million Texas gets. I don't know how much, but IMG probably gets several million at least. Point being, somebody has to take care of IMG, as well as Texas, if the LHN is rolled into a Big 12 network. That means a Big 12 network is probably going to have to come up with something in the neighborhood of $20+ million a year to convince both Texas and IMG to give up the LHN.
 
Not trying to start an argument here, just honestly curious. If a conference network were the deciding factor for Clemson and FSU joining the Big 12 (see the ACC's documented repeated failure to get a network launched), and the Longhorn Network was the only hold-up in launching said network - assuming the B12 found a way to make Texas whole on the Longhorn Network revenue front - would Texas be willing to give up the Longhorn Network to bring in those schools?
It's a business, of course they would listen if they RIGHT candidates were on the table. The idea of Texas going ACC and using the LHN to launch the new ACC network while giving Texas regional coverage makes more sense from a business standpoint.
 
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