How many Longhorns get drafted this weekend

[Bwilk55]

I don't know the metrics well enough to know if this is a high % or low %. I would think if a full third of people didn't get drafted that's a pretty good showing.

Then again, I'd have to see historical data to be able to draw that conclusion.

Anecdotally, it seems like a newer trend that so many Juniors are declaring early. Max Olson has been following this story closely and reporting on the trends yearly, but this has only been the last few years. He writes for the Athletic now so I can't read his articles.

Leaving early to me is really a question of your draft ceiling and your ability to stick with a team.

The most important thing in determining your instantaneous earnings is your draft position and it is really only significant if you go in the top 3 rounds.

The most important thing in determining your long term (5-6 years) earnings is your ability to stick with a team. With no guaranteed contracts getting drafted in round 5 and then cut does you no good. Being an UDFA who plays for 5-6 years can out-earn a 6th-7th round pick who plays the same amount.

So, if staying an additional year helps move you up the draft board (especially into the top 3 rounds) or helps you improve your chances to make and stay with a team - don't leave early. If you have already maxed out your abilities, it can make sense to make the move and start earning earlier.

 

[clob94]

Anecdotally, it seems like a newer trend that so many Juniors are declaring early. Max Olson has been following this story closely and reporting on the trends yearly, but this has only been the last few years. He writes for the Athletic now so I can't read his articles.

Leaving early to me is really a question of your draft ceiling and your ability to stick with a team.

The most important thing in determining your instantaneous earnings is your draft position and it is really only significant if you go in the top 3 rounds.

The most important thing in determining your long term (5-6 years) earnings is your ability to stick with a team. With no guaranteed contracts getting drafted in round 5 and then cut does you no good. Being an UDFA who plays for 5-6 years can out-earn a 6th-7th round pick who plays the same amount.

So, if staying an additional year helps move you up the draft board (especially into the top 3 rounds) or helps you improve your chances to make and stay with a team - don't leave early. If you have already maxed out your abilities, it can make sense to make the move and start earning earlier.

It's in the NFL's best interest to tell as many kids as possible that they will be drafted in the top 3 rounds. The NFL isn't stupid. This is a numbers game. If you're a kid that's being told "round 3 to round 5" then that really means you'll be lucky to be drafted. BUT--- the NFL still wants you to enter the draft because if the real rounds through 3-5 draft picks don't work out, it's OK because there are hundreds of other kids that went undrafted that can be brought in and be evaluated on the field to see if they fit.

Trust me----- unless you're a CERTAIN first rounder, the NFL lies to you.

 

[Bwilk55]

It's in the NFL's best interest to tell as many kids as possible that they will be drafted in the top 3 rounds. The NFL isn't stupid. This is a numbers game. If you're a kid that's being told "round 3 to round 5" then that really means you'll be lucky to be drafted. BUT--- the NFL still wants you to enter the draft because if the real rounds through 3-5 draft picks don't work out, it's OK because there are hundreds of other kids that went undrafted that can be brought in and be evaluated on the field to see if they fit.

Trust me----- unless you're a CERTAIN first rounder, the NFL lies to you.

Seems like the guys leaving Texas recently have been advised to return to school.

 

[clob94]

Seems like the guys leaving Texas recently have been advised to return to school.

You can ask the NFL directly or you can go to a third party consulting firm and pay for an evaluation. LJH was told third to fifth round and look---- he fell for it.