Arch Manning is... one of the 10 best quarterbacks in college football.
Not in two years. Not next season. Not by the end of the 2024 season.
Right now.
Oh, I know what some of you are thinking. He held the ball too long on a play or two last week and he's still so wet behind the years. The sample size isn't large enough. Great defenses will expose him to some degree.
The truth of the matter is that Texas fans are so nervous about a quarterback controversy and so rightfully protective of reigning Big 12 Championship game MVP/conqueror of Alabama/Michigan game hero Quinn Ewers that they are consistently ignoring what's in front of their very eyes in the name of the kind of needed denial that will allow them to sleep well at night.
Take a long look at the current passing leaders in college football.
Which of those players are you definitely taking over Manning right now if you were playing in a national championship game tomorrow?
Alabama's Jalen Milroe? I concur. Miami's Cameron Ward? Maybe. Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart? Are you sure? Oregon's Dillon Gabriel? Again, are you sure?
Even if we concede for the sake of continuing the discussion that you would take all four of those players over Manning, that's only four players. Could you really get to 10? Maybe Georgia's Carson Beck, who currently ranks 41st in the country in passing? Maybe Colorado's Shedeur Sanders, who ranks 33rd?
Before you start making your list, take a look at ESPN's current national QBR leaders, which includes rushing success into the equation.
The only players in the nation to rank in the top 10 in both passing efficiency and QBR are Ward, Milroe, Dart, Penn State's Drew Allar, Indiana's Kurtis Rourke and Manning.
Arch Manning is ... one of the five best players on the Texas team.
Make no mistake about it, he was the best player on the field against Mississippi State by a country mile. The same was true in the UTSA game a few weeks ago, just ahead of Ewers, who was having a pretty spectacular start to that game before the oblique injury took him out.
Even if we take a look at his two-interception performance against La-Monroe, who was better? Kelvin Banks. Sure. Cam Williams? Sure, I'll go for that since he graded so well. Anthony Hill? Maybe. Outside of that, I'm having a hard time coming up with a name without it feeling like I'm trying too hard.
The absolute truth of the matter is that no player on this Texas team has been better than Manning in the 10+ quarters he's played in since taking over for Ewers. Not Banks. Not Hill. Not anyone.
All of that being said...
Arch Manning is... the backup quarterback.
It just so happens that Ewers is also one of the top 10 quarterbacks in the country and one of the best five players on this team.
He's more experienced and battle-tested against better teams, while also having emerged as one of the emotional heartbeats of the program. By all accounts, this is Ewers' team. None other than Steve Sarkisian keeps telling us that.
I'd also contend that in a match-up with Oklahoma in two weeks, Ewers’ skill-set is probably best suited for the task. The Sooners will bring a lot of pass-rush pressure to the table in this game and Ewers' ability to get the ball out of his hands quickly with short and intermediate throws in the passing game to the speedy Texas playmakers is likely the best recipe for optimal offensive success for the Longhorns.
That being said, make no mistake about the fact that the Longhorns would likely beat this Oklahoma team by double-digits with Manning in control of the offense. The Sooners wish they had a player as capable as Manning coming into this game, which they don't.
It's a hell of a thing to live in a world where the Longhorns are stacked at the quarterback position in such a way when you consider the quarterbacking wastelands the program wandered in for so much of the last decade. Ironically, you might have to go back to the Oklahoma team in 2017 that featured Baker Mayfield as the starter and Kyler Murray as the backup to find a team in college football that was as well-equipped at the quarterback position.
One things is certain, you'd rather have it this way than the other way around.
The backup quarterback for the Longhorns probably throws the best deep ball of any quarterback I've ever seen in all of my three decades of covering this team. He also is completing 70.5% of his passes, which is just an eyelash behind Ewers' 73.4% completion percentage despite the fact that he ranks second in the nation in yards per attempt and averages nearly three more yards per completion than UT's starter. Oh, and he also leads the team in yards per carry by more than a yard over all scholarship running backs, despite any sacks that take away from his numbers. In fact, his longest run of the season is 29 yards longer than any scholarship running back on the roster.
No matter how much you want to poo-poo what he's doing on the field in the name of not daring to recreate an Applewhite/Simms mess for a team that is a legit national championship contender ...
Arch Manning is ... inevitable.
No. 2 - Killing a nonsensical narrative ...
Some have invented a narrative about what happened in the game with Mississippi State's run game that didn't actually exist in reality. Take a look at MSU's drive chart from Saturday:
Drive No. 1 - 13 plays, 47 yards, 7:08 time of possession, 0 points
Drive No. 2 - 3 plays, 2 yards, 1:17 time of possession, 0 points
Drive No. 3 - 7 plays, 25 yards, 3:24 time of possession, 0 points
Drive No. 4 - 7 plays, 10 yards, 3:11 time of possession, 3 points
Drive No. 5 - 10 plays, 64 yards, 5:34 time of possession, 3 points
Drive No. 6 - 2 plays, 3 yards, 0:29 time of possession, 0 points
Drive No. 7 - 3 plays, 3 yards, 1:36 time of possession, 0 points
Drive No. 8 - 9 plays, 15 yards, 4:48 time of possession, 0 points
Drive No. 9 - 6 plays, 0 yards, 2:22 time of possession, 0 points
Drive No. 10 - 7 plays, 75 yards, 3:18 time of possession, 7 points
Drive No. 11 - 8 plays, 10 yards, 1:50 time of possession, 0 points
If you believe that Mississippi State's run game wasn't controlled and that Texas was pushed around at an alarming rate, you're just wrong.
Through the first nine drives of the game (51 minutes of the game), the Longhorns allowed more than 25 yards in any drive twice. Both drives ended in field goals. In six of those nine drives, Texas allowed 15 or fewer yards.
No. 3 – My hottest take of the weekend?
Colin Simmons is the best true freshman defensive player that the Longhorns have had since 2001 when Mack Brown refused to insert Derrick Johnson into the starting line-up in 11 out of 13 games (true story).
I know it's only been five games, but it feels absolutely obvious to these eyes. I'm willing to take on any and all former player entries.
The former 5-star from Duncanville isn't even a starter on this Texas defense, which ranks among the best in the nation in a number of key team stats, but he leads the team in sacks (4), tackles for loss (6) and forced fumbles (1), while ranking second the team in quarterback hits (4)
Simmons came into this week ranking 13th on the team in total snaps on the defensive side of the ball. Imagine what this kid will do when that data point changes, which started to occur against Mississippi State with him accumulating a season-high 41 snaps (according to PFF).
This is a really good defense and he's the scariest playmaking force on it.
Oh, in case you're wondering ... Johnson finished with 17 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 9 quarterback hits and a forced fumble in 12 games in 2001. We might as well keep score moving forward.
No. 4 - Scattershooting the day after 35-13 ...
... On October 19th, No. 5 Georgia will play at No. 1 Texas and No. 2 Alabama will play at No. 4 Tennessee. Wowzers. What a day that's going to be.
... Stat of the Year (so far ...): Texas' team passing efficiency is currently 185.30, which would shatter the school record of 173.05 set in 2008. While that is occurring, the Texas defense is holding opponents to a passer rating of 88.42, which means Texas is literally passing the ball twice as well as its opponents.
... Random stat of the Week: Did you know that in Colt McCoy's historic 2008 season, he actually ranked second on the team in passing efficiency? John Chiles actually posted a 231.66 efficiency rating in limited action as a backup that year (11 of 13 for 149 yards and 2 TD).
... Texas doesn't have a scholarship running back on the roster currently averaging better than 5.0 yards per carry. Maybe the coaches should dip into the Portal for a starter next season.
... I found it very enlightening that the Longhorn coaching staff didn't play Jerrick Gibson until the fourth quarter on a day when the running game was stuck in the mud for most of the game.
... This is just my opinion, but it sure seems like Jaydon Blue is a little too patient in waiting for his blocking when sometimes it just looks like he needs to hit the hole as quickly as possible and get into the second level. Maybe Tashard Choice is teaching him to wait on his blockers, but Blue is incredibly patient and it seems to be somewhat allowing defenses to catch up on slower-developing runs.
... At his current pace, Anthony Hill could approach 20 tackles for loss and double-digits in sacks if the Longhorns play in the SEC title game and a couple of playoff games (15 total games). Derrick Johnson had only 10.5 sacks in his entire career.
... I don't know whose snaps he needs to be taking, but it feels like Colton Vasek should be playing more.
... Texas is the best first-quarter team in the country, outscoring its five opponents by a score of 56-0. That has translated to leads of 7-0, 7-0, 14-0, 21-0 and 7-0 in five games.
... Nineteen Texas players have been credited with at least 0.5 tackles for loss this season and none of those players are named Trey Moore.
... I maintain that I liked Steve Sarkisian's aggression in taking the points off the scoreboard in the third quarter. I just disliked the play-call on 4th and 3.
No. 5 - If I had a vote that mattered ...
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. Tennessee
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Miami
8. Penn State
9. Missouri
10. Clemson
Heisman Trophy
1. Jalen Milroe (Alabama)
2. Travis Hunter (Colorado)
3. Cam Ward (Miami)
4. Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)
5. Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss)
No. 6 - Former Horns Transfer Watch ...
Here are notable stat lines from former Longhorns across college football this weekend ...
QB - Hudson Card (Purdue): 18 of 25 for 174 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT (135.7 rating) in a 28-10 loss to Nebraska
QB - Maalik Murphy (Duke): 15 of 34 for 209 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT (105.5 rating) in a 21-20 win over North Carolina.
RB - Ja'Quinden Jackson (Arkansas): 10 carries for 37 yards and 1 TD in a 21-17 loss to Texas A&M.
RB - Savion Red (Nevada): No game this week
WR - Isaiah Neyor (Nebraska): 1 reception for 14 yards in a 28-10 win over Purdue.
DB - Jerrin Thompson (Auburn): Recorded 2 tackles in 27-21 loss to Oklahoma.
No. 7 - Tooting my own...uh... horn ...[/b[
I know I'll never live down Garrett Gilbert. I also know I've horribly missed on Hudson Card.
You win some, you lose some. This isn't an industry that ever sees anything close to perfection. Five stars are the surest things we have and they only find success more than failure at a modest rate.
All of that being said, I am going to give myself one pat on the back and two mini-pat on the backs coming out of the weekend.
1. I rated Jalen Milroe as a 5-star and called him this generation's Donovan McNabb when none of the services rated him high than a mid four-star. Rivals had him as the No.77 overall player in the country, while On3 had him at No.102, 247 had him at No.109 and ESPN had him at No.112. None of the services had him as a Top 10 prospect in Texas.
2. Perhaps the overwhelming majority of this site aren't yet convinced that Clemson's Cade Klubnik is going to realize his potential at Clemson (especially after the performance against Georgia), but the second-year starter has started to find the light switch.
Heading into October, Klubnik has 16 total touchdowns (12 passing), ranks 13th in the country in passing efficiency (201.6 this month) and is 4th nationally in QBR.
Mark my words, when the dust settles he's going to be a first-round pick if he stays healthy. You'll remember who called it before anyone else.
3. Just for the record, I had OU freshman starter Michael Hawkins ranked higher than everyone else in the industry as a prospect. While 247 had him ranked as a three-star and neither On3 or ESPN ranked higher than 40th in the state, yours truly had him at No.16 overall in the state and just outside of super blue chip status.
This is what I said of him 9 months ago: "Michael Hawkins might be the most underrated prospect in the state. He's special with the ball in his hands and has NFL bloodlines. I'm not sure he's a quarterback (long-term), but he could end up being a star at receiver if he's not. Watch his senior film if you're bored and want to see a bad ass."
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) It will be in the biggest games at some point. Not in most games, but in bigger games, yes.
(Sell) Never once crossed my mind.
(Sell) Jaydon Blue would still be the starter, but he has to play better and I would play Wisner earlier than the third quarter.
(Sell) I'm ok with the way the coaches are using the personnel. Having fresh guys in the fourth quarter is not an unimportant thing.
(Sell) There's no reason to think that group won't commit a few.
(Buy) Yup, I said it.
(Sell) I think Quinn's skill set is best-suited to thrive against what I expect to be a very aggressive OU defense, but am I 100-percent sure that he gives Texas a better chance? No, of course not. I'm not sure how to quantify it, but 100 percent?
(Sell) On a neutral field, I'd pick the Longhorns to beat the Tide.
(Sell) He's going to the NFL after this season.
(Buy) I guess. He gives them more of a run threat, but he's not a plus-player in the passing game. But, he's playing better than Arnold.
(Sell) It's the run game on offense for me.
(Sell) A&M has more talent and will have a rabid crowd in support.
(Buy) Yup.
(Sell) The Texas Foundation might be the Lannisters, but NIL isn't remotely similar at this point. That's a preposterous suggestion.
(Sell) You're essentially asking if he could be this generation's Matt Cassel? Sure, it's possible, but probably more unlikely than likely if we're talking about getting drafted. He'll eventually need to play.
(Sell) I don't have that kind of money to just play around with recklessly, especially if you're not giving me some odds. It's more mathematically likely that he won't go No. 1 overall than he will. But, if I had Floyd Mayweather Jr. money and you gave me some decent odds, I'd be in.
(Sell) I don't think fans have worried about that for at least a decade. Guys can qualify relatively easily these days and staying eligible can be made to happen unless a guy can't read or write, or just doesn't care.
No. 9 – Scattershooting all over the place …
... In its first ever SEC match-up, the No.8 Longhorns took out Texas A&M in College Station. Pooooooooooor Aggies. The Longhorns followed that up with a win over LSU in Baton Rouge on Sunday for its 4th straight win.
... The Georgia/Alabama game was one of the best regular-season games that I can remember in a long time. It was just amazing theater. That's the second time that Jalen Milroe has been the best player on the field in a game against Georgia.
... SEC Scattershots: Kirby Smart said at SEC Media Days that humility in the SEC is only a week away and Ole Miss learned that lesson the hard way on Saturday. Arkansas must truly hate the Aggies at this point, having lost 12 of the last 13 times they've played since the Aggies joined the SEC. Kentucky has the best defensive line in the SEC and that includes Georgia. Auburn stole defeat from the jaws of victory against the Sooners. Why on earth didn't the Texas coaches go hard after Caden Durham?
... Lane Kiffin just keeps winning me over.
... I'd sell my Hudson Card stock if I could, but I can't get anything for it, so I guess I'll just keep holding it. But, it's just not happening. It's a reminder that arm tools and athleticism don't automatically mean squat. You have to be able to play at some point.
... Dear Pat Mahomes, just throw it deep. X will go get it.
... I kind of enjoy it when the Cowboys don't play on Sundays. It makes watching the red-zone channel pretty care-free.
... Nice job, Texans. Sometimes in the NFL, you just have to win the damn game and move on. I saw more good than bad on Sunday.
... None of us is really taking the Vikings seriously, are we? No offense, Sam Darnold.
... Jordan Whittington had a nice 6-catch, 62-yard day against the Bears.
... New Rule: Current players need to talk smack about Tom Brady every week if it means we get to see Psycho Tom on TV every time it happens.
... Tom Thibodeau is either going to get the best version of Karl Anthony -Towns in New York or he's going to kill him.
... Attendance in the WNBA was up 48% this season, including 154 sellouts after there were just 45 in 2023. Nice job, ladies.
... Attaboy, Kody.
... Premier League Scattershots: Thank you, Newcastle, the world is simply better when Man City drops points. Dear the rest of the league, stop giving Arsenal corner kicks, but of you do give up a corner kick, watch the damn back post at all costs! Cole Palmer is the truth. Crazy to think that City is so good that it viewed Palmer as expendable. Points in the last 15 Premier League games: Everton 21 Man United 19. Discuss.
... Rest in peace, Kris. This one stings.
... Rest in peace, Maggie Smith. You will forever be quite beloved.
... Surprise Headline of the Weekend: "Lana Del Rey Marries Alligator Tour Guide In Surprise Bayou Wedding"
... My wife took me to the Bayou Music Center on Friday night to see MrBallen from Youtube tell 5 victim-oriented true crime stories. The people in that crowd LOVE this dude. I'm still not sure what I think about it all. It was interesting, but my wife was pissed that she didn't get into a post-concert meet and greet, and I didn't know what to say to comfort her in her fume. It was a fascinating world to be in for a couple of hours.
No. 10 – The List: Jimmy Stewart
For those of you that wanted me to do an Outkast list this week because Andre Three Stacks showed up on the 40 Acres this week to visit the Texas football team, I do apologize, but I did an Outkast in this column a little more than a year ago.
The truth of the matter is that two weeks ago, it kind of randomly occurred to me that I had only seen a handful of Jimmy Stewart movies. Two of those movies I've probably seen into triple figures combined, but my familiarity with the rest of his catalog was very limited.
So, over the course of the last 14 days, I've taken a crash course in the work of the man that The American Film Institute named as the third Greatest Male Movie Star of All-Time. Oh, and he was also a decorated military officer who served in World War II as a front-line bomber pilot and eventually earned the rank of brigadier general.
To quote Dak Prescott, "Here we go."
Last 5 movies out: The Spirit of St. Louis, Rope, The Stratton Story, Call Northside 777 and The Man Who Knew Too Much
10. The Glenn Miller Story
I loved seeing the real life musical stars that made cameos and I'm a sucker for anything that included June Allyson.
9. Winchester 73
One of my two favorite westerns that Stewart starred in.
8. The Philadelphia Story
Stewart + Cary Grant + Katherine Hepburn + screwball comedy = Yes, please.
7. Anatomy of a Murder
I'm a sucker for a great courtroom drama.
6. The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance
Stewart's best Western.
5. The Shop Around the Corner
The inspiration to You've Got Mail.
4. Vertigo
Stewart's best work with Alfred Hitchcock.
3. Rear Window
I knew nothing about this movie when I watched it last week and it took my breath away. Truly an all-timer.
2. It's a Wonderful Life
The best Christmas movie of them all.
1. Mr. Smith Goes to Washington
If you want to know why I'm me, just know that this has been one of my favorite movies since I was a teenager. Once upon a time when I was a young teenager, I aspired to be Jefferson Smith. It's in my DNA at this point.
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