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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Names of note from spring workouts)

I didn't read what everybody said but in case it wasn't mentioned, Wane Mcgarity went through a similar history with the injuries. If I remember right dude had like 3 or 4 knee surgeries and still had a great career.
 
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I haven't done the data crunching for that. It's way more time involved.
I respect that, Ketch. Nonetheless, that seems like a big omission if you’re trying to educate us. Without the oos data, we can’t know whether this is an oddity about Texas LBs or about LBs in general.
 
I didn't read what everybody said but in case it wasn't mentioned, Wane Mcgarity went through a similar history with the injuries. If I remember right dude had like 3 or 4 knee surgeries and still had a great career.
good call. Came out of nowhere as a senior.
 
I respect that, Ketch. Nonetheless, that seems like a big omission if you’re trying to educate us. Without the oos data, we can’t know whether this is an oddity about Texas LBs or about LBs in general.
I have the numbers on the overall positions and the math. I just didn't have time this weekend.

Hell, Saturday was my wife's 40th and yesterday was my mom's 64th. And you guys still got a mountain of data. ;)
 
I guess DeMarvion Overshown got left out of the analysis because he was listed as a DB coming out of high school, but he's a 4* kid who is projected to be drafted and people have been discussing him as eventually spinning down to LB going back to his HS days.

LB just seems like a difficult position to perform this analysis, because there are so many DB recruits who have grown into LBers, and there are so many LB recruits who grow into DEs.

Maybe it's just hard to find guys who are big enough to be highly rated LB recruits out of HS, but also who don't out-grow the position once they get in a college weight program.
 
Don't give up on the idea that Whittington can reach his upside. There's one historical precedent in Texas football history that suggests Whittington can get over the top with just a little bit of injury fortune. It's time for there to be two.
Very well stated.
 
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I guess DeMarvion Overshown got left out of the analysis because he was listed as a DB coming out of high school, but he's a 4* kid who is projected to be drafted and people have been discussing him as eventually spinning down to LB going back to his HS days.

LB just seems like a difficult position to perform this analysis, because there are so many DB recruits who have grown into LBers, and there are so many LB recruits who grow into DEs.

Maybe it's just hard to find guys who are big enough to be highly rated LB recruits out of HS, but also who don't out-grow the position once they get in a college weight program.
The biggest thing I took from this is the physical profile that seems to work out the best.

All bigger prospects have failed.

Unless he's 5 stars, 220+ kids should be ignored.
 
I will add that there's another component of the Alabama visit and the aftermath that is VERY good for Texas IMO. I just can't say it out loud.
Apparently there is some positive spin coming from Alabama.

https://thespun.com/more/top-stories/look-1-school-emerging-as-favorite-for-arch-manning
Arch Manning is taking his time with his recruitment, but one school might be emerging as the favorite for the five-star quarterback.


The New Orleans, Louisiana product visited the University of Alabama over the weekend. Manning, the nephew of Peyton and Eli, has been taking some notable recruiting visits this spring.

Following his visit with the Crimson Tide, Nick Saban’s program has emerged as the apparent frontrunner for the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2023 class.

“After visiting Athens, Austin, and Tuscaloosa the past few weekends, the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine gives Alabama a slight edge over Texas and Georgia to land Five-Star Plus+ QB Arch Manning…,” On3 Recruits tweeted.


After visiting Athens, Austin, and Tuscaloosa the past few weekends, the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine gives Alabama a slight edge over Texas and Georgia to land Five-Star Plus+ QB Arch Manning… 🐘🤘🐶
More from @JosephAHastings HERE: https://t.co/iXmSqvtN1s pic.twitter.com/iw0RZleim3
— On3 Recruits (@On3Recruits) April 4, 2022


Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss and Florida are viewed as the serious contenders for Arch Manning at this point.


Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide will be pretty tough to beat, though.
 
Apparently there is some positive spin coming from Alabama.

https://thespun.com/more/top-stories/look-1-school-emerging-as-favorite-for-arch-manning
Arch Manning is taking his time with his recruitment, but one school might be emerging as the favorite for the five-star quarterback.


The New Orleans, Louisiana product visited the University of Alabama over the weekend. Manning, the nephew of Peyton and Eli, has been taking some notable recruiting visits this spring.

Following his visit with the Crimson Tide, Nick Saban’s program has emerged as the apparent frontrunner for the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2023 class.

“After visiting Athens, Austin, and Tuscaloosa the past few weekends, the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine gives Alabama a slight edge over Texas and Georgia to land Five-Star Plus+ QB Arch Manning…,” On3 Recruits tweeted.





Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss and Florida are viewed as the serious contenders for Arch Manning at this point.


Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide will be pretty tough to beat, though.
The prediction machine just means more people have Bama in as the pick.

It doesn't impact my thought from this morning and why it might be good news for Texas at all.
 
Is Bo Scaife another comp (albeit at TE)? Seems like he had a couple of knee injuries. Although, he lost some of his speed, he did contribute and go on to play in the NFL.
 
Missed two seasons due to ACL injuries but emerged productive and played in the NFL.
Absolutely. I just don't remember people giving up on him as a lost cause the way people did with Shipley and Whittington (to a degree).
 
I have the numbers on the overall positions and the math. I just didn't have time this weekend.

Hell, Saturday was my wife's 40th and yesterday was my mom's 64th. And you guys still got a mountain of data. ;)
Fair enough. It was a good Ten Thoughts and I feel I got my money’s worth.
Happy birthday to the Ketchum ladies.
 
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I feel like Linebackers at the high school level are often somewhat awkward tweeners subject to more unpredictability as they transition to the next level. For example, a typical HS LB might be a shade over 200 lbs., but needs to get to 225 - 230 lbs. to be a viable D1 LB. Proportionally that is a lot of weight gain for a position that also has to maintain speed and agility.

I also have a feeling that LB may be one of the positions that what enables success at HS level least translates to what enables success at the college level.
 
I watched the Burrell tape OB posted well before reading this article. I do not consider myself any kind of football scout, but one thought I had was that he didn't look particularly fast or agile.

Obviously he makes a ton of great plays in the tape and is serious baller in HS, but I don't think we want to see him in space one on one against a D1 WR/RB trying to provide underneath pass coverage or securing the edge.
 
I feel like Linebackers at the high school level are often somewhat awkward tweeners subject to more unpredictability as they transition to the next level. For example, a typical HS LB might be a shade over 200 lbs., but needs to get to 225 - 230 lbs. to be a viable D1 LB. Proportionally that is a lot of weight gain for a position that also has to maintain speed and agility.

I also have a feeling that LB may be one of the positions that what enables success at HS level least translates to what enables success at the college level.
200-pound linebackers rarely get rated highly and they rarely hit.
 
I watched the Burrell tape OB posted well before reading this article. I do not consider myself any kind of football scout, but one thought I had was that he didn't look particularly fast or agile.

Obviously he makes a ton of great plays in the tape and is serious baller in HS, but I don't think we want to see him in space one on one against a D1 WR/RB trying to provide underneath pass coverage or securing the edge.
He has some question marks in a few areas, as I outlined as well.
 
I don't think any rational person has given up on Whittington and his talent/potential. I certainly haven't and it's terrifying to think he'd want to change positions.

I share Worthy's opinion about Whittington, but I'm mostly terrified to talk about it very much or say it too loud and feel like I can't be alone in that camp. I'm not superstitious. But I am a little 'stitious.
 
I don't think any rational person has given up on Whittington and his talent/potential. I certainly haven't and it's terrifying to think he'd want to change positions.

I share Worthy's opinion about Whittington, but I'm mostly terrified to talk about it very much or say it too loud and feel like I can't be alone in that camp. I'm not superstitious. But I am a little 'stitious.
I feel you. After predicting such big things for him a year ago, I'm trying to keep my jinx powers at bay and just hope.
 
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On the subject of recent linebackers and how their size/speed relate to nfl success, I’m reminded of one of my favorite recent horns Gary Johnson.

I know he was not a Texas high school prospect.

Gary had elite straight line speed. He ran a 4.4 at the combine, but never stuck in the league and I think plays in Canada.

Just because I was particularly interested in Gary that year and hoping he would make the league, I remember that was the year the two Devins were first round draft picks. Devin white and Devin bush. Both also ran 4.4’s, are about 235, and really good pro players.
 
On the subject of recent linebackers and how their size/speed relate to nfl success, I’m reminded of one of my favorite recent horns Gary Johnson.

I know he was not a Texas high school prospect.

Gary had elite straight line speed. He ran a 4.4 at the combine, but never stuck in the league and I think plays in Canada.

Just because I was particularly interested in Gary that year and hoping he would make the league, I remember that was the year the two Devins were first round draft picks. Devin white and Devin bush. Both also ran 4.4’s, are about 235, and really good pro players.
Gary just wasn't quite good enough. Very good college player, but not a level above that.
 
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In the OP? Did I miss it? Damn. Wtf is wrong with me? Don’t answer that.

EDIT: JUst realized I didn't see #10 down there, because I generallhy stop reading by the time you post the "list" that generally wraps up the column.
 
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Also, you still owe me the Manning breakdown you said you'd work on this week.
 
thanks for reminding me. It's a good content piece that needs to be done.
Yeah I think there’s a lot of us just on the “assume he’s the best” train because of the name and the ranking without much to really back it up. Is he really the best? Why? Where are the evaluations and by who? How do we comp him?
 
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