Texas might have lost the battle on Saturday, but won the war on Sunday.
Same for Penn State.
In the aftermath of the release of the playoff bracket on Sunday morning, it became very clear very fast what has been suspected for months ... being No. 5 and No. 6 might be more advantageous than actually being No. 1 or No. 2.
While the Longhorns and Nittany Lions have to play an extra game and assume all of the extra risks of added attrition that come with it (see Georgia), there's no question that getting Arizona State and Boise State in the quarterfinals, respectively, instead of having to potentially play Ohio State or Notre Dame is a bonus.
Every Texas fan is thinking the same thing. You HAVE to make the semifinals. Period. Hell, Texas fans have said for the last 11 months that Texas had to make the semifinals this season for the season to be a success, but now they
really have to make the semifinals.
Then you have to potentially beat Oregon and Georgia. It doesn't feel like anyone is shooting from the lay-up line from a pathway standpoint, but in being forced to play an extra game, Texas caught a break in round two that winning the SEC wouldn't have provided. From my vantage point coming in, the thing you wanted if you were Texas was being on the other side of the bracket from Georgia and not having to face either of the top two seeds before the semis.
Major mission accomplished.
The major question I have for the Longhorns might center around the collateral damage that occurs with regard to the team's health leading up to a semifinal. Survival is the name of the game. When Isaiah Bond got his ankle rolled up on in the fourth quarter on Saturday, it felt like a nail in the coffin for ever expecting that he's going to be truly right for the rest of the season. It's possible that this single injury issue might ultimately derail the Texas season short of the largest goal, but there are other personnel land mines that could yet pop up to add to the injury anxieties.
Of course, at some point the Longhorns will have to play sustained championship-level football.
Otherwise, we'll remember this season for the Longhorns having lost both the battle and the war.
No. 2 - Initial Playoff Projections ...
Let's start with Texas vs. Clemson.
For all of the Ewers/Klubnik discussion that will take place for the next few weeks, just know that Texas is definitively better than the Tigers. I might take Cade Klubnik over Quinn Ewers if forced to pick ... might ... but the rest of the position battles in this game favor the Longhorns in a big, big way.
I've got chalk in the first round ... Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame and Ohio State all advance.
Texas and Penn State will roll in the second round, while Georgia and Oregon will have to survive serious scares, but I expect both to do so.
That would leave Texas vs. Oregon and Penn State vs Georgia.
I don't think Texas is better than Oregon and I haven't really seen the Longhorns play at a level over the last two months that gives me confidence that the team will step up in that match-up. Give me the Ducks and Dawgs in the semis and the Ducks in the final.
Assuming the Ducks can get through Ohio State, which is less than certain.
No. 3 - About Quinn ...
Never has a conference championship loss ever felt like losing in the conference tournament final like it did on Sunday as soon as the bracket was announced.
Saturday no longer matters as it relates to what happens moving forward. It's fish wrap.
Therefore, I really don't have it in me to continue a debate on what subjective word we should use to describe the play of Quinn Ewers against Georgia. Call it what you want. I really don't care.
Here's what I would say coming out of the game and into a potential four-game slate to win a national championship ...
Texas cannot win a national title if ...
* The offense struggles in the red zone and can't score more than one offensive touchdown in any future match-up.
* Ewers keeps having these multi-quarter segments where he plays at an abysmal level. In the second and third quarters on Saturday, the Texas offense scored threee points and didn't come close to sniffing the end zone while Ewers delivered a 103 game rating during that stretch. Stretches exactly like this have existed in every game but one since Ewers returned from injury against Oklahoma.
* Ewers goes 2-of-7 for 5 yards and an awful sack in his last eight drop-backs with the game ultimately on the line.
Ewers has to play better. Many of you get so frustrated with me over my use of the efficiency rating as a metric to define quarterback play, but I like it because there's no confirmation bias in it. It doesn't get in its feels if the data reflects something it doesn't like. Is it perfect? Of course, not. Is it non-subjective? Entirely.
The data says that Ewers has played like a replacement-level player in the final month of the season.
Texas hasn't scored more than two offensive touchdowns in three of the last four games. In all three of those games, Ewers' efficiency levels were below those that he posted as a first-year starter (132.6) in 2022. It's not my opinion that he's playing at levels worse than roughly 90 quarterbacks across the country. It's math. It's not my opinion that he's delivered multi-quarter stretches in seven of the last eight games that rank below Wyoming quarterback Evan Svoboda's worst ranking in the country in pass efficiency. That's math.
Consider the opposition's quarterback numbers in each of UT's two losses to Georgia this season.
On paper, the Longhorns should have not only won both games, but run away with them. They didn't win either game because Ewers (and the entire offense) couldn't play at anything remotely close to successful levels. The offensive inefficiency isn't all on Ewers. That would be completely unfair. Yet, he's the freaking quarterback. If he plays poorly, Texas is playing with two hands tied behind its back.
If it happens again this season, Texas will go out of the playoffs with a loss. It feels as simple as that.
No. 4 - Scattershooting on the Horns...
* Texas is 5-4 in games that Quinn Ewers throws for 300+ yards in his career. The losses? Oklahoma State in 2022. Oklahoma in 2023. Washington in 2023. Georgia in 2024.
* Against the three most difficult teams on the Texas schedule, the Longhorns have scored 15, 17 and 19 points. That feels important to note going into the playoffs.
* The more I think about it, the more I’m convinced that Andrew Mukuba played one of the best championship games I've ever seen a player have in a Texas uniform. He was the single best player on the field on Saturday for my money.
* The latest mock draft by The Ringer's Danny Kelly has Cam Williams going 11th overall in the first round.
* If Jahdae Barron loses the Thorpe Award to Travis Hunter, we riot. (Note: I'm an idiot. Hunter isn't a finalist.)
* Tre Wisner is 137 yards away from 1,000 yards.
* Matthew Golden has 47 receptions for 738 yards and 8 touchdowns. He's averaging more than 6 catches and 103 yards per game in his last three games. If the Longhorns make it to the semis, there's a good chance that he could finish the season with around at least 60+ receptions, 1,000+ yards and 10+ touchdowns.
* Colin Simmons is two sacks away from 10 in his freshman season. What a stud.
* Alfred Collins has two fewer pass break-ups (7) than Barron (9). Way to get your hands up, big fella.
* Updated Texas Scholarship Board
No. 5 - Portal Needs ...
The Portal opens on Monday! The Portal opens on Monday! The Portal opens on Monday!
I've been told that Texas will be very, very active in the Portal.
Let's go position-by-position and analyze where Texas might be shopping with some of its unspent Michael Fasusi NIL funds:
Quarterback: The Longhorns aren't going to be looking at a quarterback unless Trey Owens does something unforeseen.
Running Back: After yesterday, I'm back to thinking the Longhorns need a starting upgrade from the Portal if they can find one. Tre Wisner is the best back on campus and he's averaging 4.9 yards for the season and has six games this season with less than 3.8 yards per carry. Texas doesn't have anything remotely close to an elite player at running back on campus. If it can find one, Texas should.
Wide Receiver: You know Sark is going to find him a hoss. Or two. How many wide receivers Texas takes might depend on whether Isaiah Bond and Matthew Golden come back for another season.
Tight End: Yes, Texas needs help. No matter how much we all might like Jordan Washington, the Longhorns are going to come into next season with five career receptions at the tight end position and zero proven blockers. They cannot take chances. A starting-level addition is needed.
Offensive Line: Texas needs one or two starting-level interior linemen because there are real questions about what's left once the seniors depart. Do I think Kyle Flood and Sarkisian will do it? No, I'm not convinced at all.
Defensive Tackles: The Longhorns will sign at least two. Maybe three. I was told three last week when there was thought that the Longhorns would sign Justus Terry.
Defensive End: Unlikely. Texas is fairly loaded coming into next season, especially if Trey Moore returns.
Linebacker: Maybe. It's not a critical need, but if the right player became available, you'd have to at least kick the tires. Yet, Anthony Hill, Liona Lefau, Tyanthony Smith and Bo Barnes make a pretty salty one through four at the position next season. A depth piece wouldn't be a bad insurance policy.
Cornerback: With the Longhorns returning Malik Muhammad and Kobe Black, while adding Kade Phillips (among others), I'm not sure the Longhorns will look to spend much focus here unless someone big falls in their lap. For instance, what sense would Georgia transfer Julian Humphrey make for either party?
Safety: The Longhorns are loaded with elite-level talent. Maybe you'd look for an Andrew Mukuba type if he became available, but does Texas really want to add players that are going to keep someone like Jonah Williams off the field?
Punter/Place-kicker/Kickoffs: A little birdie told me this weekend that the Longhorns will have an interest in Michigan punter Tommy Doman, who entered the Portal last week. Look for Steve Sarkisian to look to add two kicking pieces from the Portal.
That would leave a potential Portal class looking like this:
QB: 0
RB: 1
WR: 1 or 2
TE: 1
OL: 1-2
DT: 2 or 3
LB: 0
CB: 0
S: 0
P/K: 2
Total: 8-11 players
For every additional scholarship that becomes available, you can think about adding a possible depth piece.
No. 6 - If I had a vote that mattered ...
1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Texas
4. Notre Dame
5. Penn State
6. Tennessee
7. Ohio State
8. SMU
9. Indiana
10. South Carolina
Heisman Trophy
1. WR/CB Travis Hunter (Colorado)
2. RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)
3. DE Abdul Carter (Penn State)
4. CB Jahdae Barron (Texas)
5. QB Kurtis Rourke (Indiana)
No. 7 - This and that ...
... Texas Volleyball handled its business this weekend in taking out Texas A&M CC and USC in six sets in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Next up is a match-up against No. 2 seed Creighton and if the Longhorns can pull that off, No. 1 seed Penn State in Happy Valley looms. It's not an easy path, but it's doable with a team of this pedigree. Madisen Skinner will have to be every bit the superstar every night moving forward that she was this weekend. FYI, Creighton swept Ole Miss in three to get to the Sweet 16.
... It does not bode well for the men's basketball team that they were never really in Sunday's game against U.Conn. Are the Huskies a possible Elite 8 or better team? Yes. Was Texas completely outclassed at home by such a said team? Yes, they were. Not even really good games from Tre Johnson and Arthur Kaluma changed that.
... 22 combined points from everyone other than Johnson and Kaluma tells a certain kind of story...
... Although Texas beat James Madison on Sunday, it was a disappointing week for the Texas women's basketball team when you consider that it had Notre Dame on the ropes in South Bend in the SEC/ACC Challenge, only to get outscored 12-2 in overtime in a loss. That happened on a night when Texas actually knocked down eight threes. I'm still not sure what to fully make of what Vic is working with. They are going to be a handful all season, but is this a Final Four team? Not unless Rori Harmon keeps making progress and returns to the levels she was playing at before the knee injury.
... Here are Harmon's numbers from this season compared to last season ...
... The Texas women's basketball team will now play five straight mostly worthless games before it opens up SEC play at Oklahoma on January 2. Plenty of time for this team to continue to work out some kinks.
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) Texas 31 Clemson 17
(Buy) Ewers has posted less than a 138 efficiency rating in six of his last eight games. These are the numbers: 131, 110, 154, 235, 129, 137, 130 and 122.
(Buy) Oh, he has all kinds of designs. Will he use them? That's where I have doubt.
(Buy/Sell) I'm buying the top paragraph and selling everything below it.
(Sell) It's not just Saturday's game that has showed us that. This team is overcoming the worst stretch of statistical play that Ewers has had in his entire career.
(Buy) He'll play, but maybe not effectively.
(Sell) Make it 15-20.
(Sell) Bama will do what it takes to keep him. Or that place will burn.
(Sell) Nope.
(Sell) Quinn is Geno Smith. Once you see it, you'll never unsee it.
(Sell) That's not realistic. He just needs to be better.
(Sell) Why on earth would you think, barring injury, that Arch would play more than Quinn?
(Buy) Texas is the crown jewel of the conference.
(Buy) That's an elephant in the room. It probably never happens again.
(Sell) It's a great question, but I'm not sure that either sets up Texas nicely. I'm in the middle on it. Texas hasn't scored more than two touchdowns in three of its last four games. Not sure playing Oregon is a more favorable match-up.
(Buy) I'm a homer for Michael Terry and I'm not quite as high on Pickett as Rivals is.
(Buy) If I was on a desert island, I'd go with the tenders.
(Buy) Probably. Wingo simply isn't going to have a breakout this season.
(Sell) I'll believe it when I see it.
(Sell) This offense is what it is after 13 games. If it could be done, it would already be done.
No. 9 – Scattershooting all over the place …
* Say what you want to about Oregon, but that team creates an interesting style match-up for every team it plays. If it goes through Ohio State, Texas and Georgia to win a national title, it will have proven to be an all-time great kind of team. That would mean wins over the No. 2, No. 5, No. 6 and No. 8 (twice).
* I would have put Alabama in over SMU. The Mustangs getting in means that Texas needs to start canceling some of these high-risk non-conference games it has scheduled.
* I don't think Georgia can win a national title with Carson Beck, but it might be able to with Gunner Stockton now that the young player will have three weeks to settle in as the starter.
* Damnit, it sucked beyond belief to see Jonathan Brooks go down on Sunday with a non-contact right knee injury just weeks after returning from his right knee ACL injury from last season. Damnit.
* Saquan Barkley for MVP? Yeah, I think so.
* As bad as the Sixers (7-15) have been this season, Joel Embiid and Co. are only 2.5 games of the 8-seed, 4 games back of the 7-seed, 4.5 games back of the 6-seed and 5 games back of the 5 seed. Let's go, fellas. Go on a run.
* I'm not sure that Austin FC will ever know what it means to celebrate an MLS Cup title like the LA Galaxy did this weekend. You have to have really good players to do that.
* Premier League Thoughts: Arsenal and Man City drop points ... again? Yes, please. If I'm being honest, the MVP of the weekend was Storm Darragh because it gave Liverpool a nice little rest on paper. Chelsea don't really look like a title contender this season to my eyes, but they remind me of Arsenal from two years ago. That team is going to be a handful. Geez, Spurs, y'all are going to get Ange fired, huh?
No. 10 – The List: Timothee Chalamet
As the greatest living actor under the age of 40 and since three recent movies he's served as the lead have made a combined $2+ billion at the box office, I thought we might do one for the kids this week.
I give you the king of College Game Day ... fan of SMU football... and correct user of the Hook'em ... the and only ...
@echeese and
@duqu's favorite ... Timothee Chalamet.
There's a part of me that plans on going to see the new Bob Dylan movie this week out of Orangebloods spite. That being said, Chalamet has quite the Top 10 list going for him when you consider that he's only 28 years old. He has 10 legit credits to his name that are 100% worthy of your time.
Let's get to it.
Honorable Mention: Beautiful Boy, Miss Stevens and Don't Look Up
10. The French Dispatch
It's a young Chalamet getting it on with Frances McDormand in a smaller part of a Wes Anderson movie.
9. Bones and All
A romantic cannibal film ... who hasn't been asking for this for most of their lives? If you can get beyond the ... uh ... cannibalism ... it's actually a really interesting film.
8. Interstellar
He plays Matthew McConaughey's son in this Christopher Nolan classic that is still worthy of discussion after a decade has gone by. If he'd had a bigger role, this one would be ranked higher.
7. The King
Have you seen this on Netflix? I revisited it this weekend and it's really good. If you like period dramas, I think you should give it a watch. Chalamet is great in it.
6. Call My by Your Name
Some will ave this at No. 1, but I just can't forget that Armie Hammer is in it. Too soon. Plus, I love the top 5. L-O-V-E.
5. Little Women
He's pretty damn perfect as Laurie. I need to watch this again because I'm not sure I have seen it since it came out and I loved it when I watched it in the theater.
4. Lady Bird
I might rank this higher if he was in a lead role. This is Greta Gerwig's signature film and one of the best of the last decade.
3. Dune
Not only does he take over as the lead role in a Denis Villeneuve sci-fi masterpiece, but he does so with a level of perfection that answered almost every question that a loyal fan base wanted answered from the actor in the role.
2. Wonka
I was so skeptical coming into this movie. In fact, I was a bit of a hater. You know what? My kids loved it. You know what? So did I.
1. Dune II
The fight scene at the end of the film with Austin Butler is one of the best movie scenes of the decade.
