Recruiting matters.
If you’ve heard me say it once over the last 20 years, you’ve probably heard me say it 1,000 times. Over the same time span, there’s not a person in this industry who is obsessive about researching its own history in an effort to turn pseudoscience into the real thing.
When a guy like D’Onta Foreman (more on him a little later in this section) makes history almost out of thin air as the most successful two-star prospect in the history of the Texas program, some have an instinct to point at his success as proof that the pseudoscience doesn’t matter at all. Often the retort to an argument minimizing the importance or recruiting rankings is to point out that nearly a dozen starters on the 2005 national championship team ranked as national top 50 prospects.
It often turns the discussion in an all or nothing affair when the truth is much more analytical than the hot takes will allow.
This week’s column isn’t about the hot takes, it’s about the smart ones. Its goal is to take you on a journey that provides historical context and a plan for establishing proper expectations for every recruit that Texas signs forever more.
What I’ve done is charted every recruit that Texas has ever signed under the Rivals rankings from 2002-2012 and coupled the information with
my NFL Draft/recruiting data from a year ago in an effort to paint as clear of a picture as possible about the science behind the pseudoscience.
I want to make you a better nerd.
Five-stars (6.1 Rivals ranking)
Odds of being drafted (nationally): 61.35%
Number of Texas five-stars: 20
Number of players drafted: 11 (55.00%)
Number of total NFL players: 14 (70.00%)
Number of multiple-year starters: 14 (70.00%)
List of five-star Longhorns from 2002-12: Justin Blalock (2002), Marquise Johnson (2002), Edorian McCulloch (2002), Brian Pickryl (2002), Vince Young (2002), Rod Wright (2002), Tony Hills (2003), Frank Okam (2004), Sergio Kindle (2006), Eddie Jones (2006), Curtis Brown (2007), Tray Allen (2007), Garrett Gilbert (2009), Alex Okafor (2009), Mason Walters (2009), Jackson Jeffcoat (2010), Jordan Hicks (2010), Malcolm Brown (2011), Malcom Brown (2012), Johnathan Gray (2012)
Analysis: Although the Texas sample-size is much smaller than the national sample-size (an issue with each set of numbers), the numbers are in the same neighborhood. Bottom line … despite all of the things that sidetrack a prospect (injuries, grades, arrests, homesickness, impatience, just not being good enough, etc …), a five-star prospect arrives on campus and has a better than 50-50 shot of eventually being a drafted NFL player. There are no sure things in recruiting, but being a five-star is as close as it gets.
High four-stars (6.0 Rivals ranking)
Odds of being drafted (nationally): 49.50%
Number of Texas high four-stars: 32
Number of players drafted: 10 (32.26%)
Number of total NFL players: 11 (35.48%)
List of high four-star Longhorns from 2002-12: Kasey Studdard (2002), Selvin Young (2002), Aaron Harris (2002), Michael Williams (2002), Tim Crowder (2003), Tarell Brown (2003), Michael Griffin (2003), Drew Kelson (2004), Cedrick Dockery (2004), Jamaal Charles (2005), Henry Melton (2005), Roy Miller (2005), Vondrell McGee (2006), J'Marcus Webb (2006), Jevan Snead (2006), Chykie Brown (2006), Michael Huey (2007), John Chiles (2007), Andre Jones (2007), D.J. Monroe (2008), Aaron Williams (2008), Jarvis Williams (2008), Desean Hales (2008), Garrett Porter (2009), Calvin Howell (2009), Tevin Jackson (2010), Reggie Wilson (2010), Mike Davis (2010), Darius White (2010), Steve Edmond (2011), Cayleb Jones (2012) and Kendall Sanders (2012)
Note: Kendall Sanders is not included in the numbers because he just finished a season at Arkansas State.
Analysis: This is a tier that usually ranks nationally in the area of No. 35-70 overall and is essentially a 50-50 bet to make it to the NFL, but the Texas numbers lag behind based on recent failures, as Aaron Williams is the last 6.0 Longhorn to be drafted by the NFL, a span that includes 15 players from 2007-2012 (6.67%). If you want to know how a 46-42 record since 2010 occurs, look no further than this area of disaster in recruiting.
Mid four-stars (5.9 Rivals ranking)
Odds of being drafted (nationally): 30.77%
Number of Texas high four-stars: 36
Number of players drafted: 8 (22.22%)
Number of total NFL players: 10 (27.78%)
List of mid four-star Longhorns from 2002-12: David Thomas (2002), Lyle Sendlein (2002), Neale Tweedie (2002), Larry Dibbles (2002), Chase Pittman (2002), Albert Hardy (2002), Aaron Ross (2002), Billy Pittman (2003), Limas Sweed (2003), Myron Hardy (2004), Jermichael Finley (2005), Deon Beasley (2006), Jared Norton (2006), Lamarr Houston (2006), Keenan Robinson (2007), Ben Wells (2007), Andre McGaskey (2007), Earl Thomas (2007), Cody Johnson (2007), Malcolm Williams (2007), Christian Scott (2007), Mark Buchanan (2008), Dan Buckner (2008), Marcus Davis (2009), Chris Whaley (2009), Greg Timmons (2009), Trey Hopkins (2010), Taylor Bible (2010), Connor Wood (2010), Dom Espinosa (2010), Chris Jones (2010), Ashton Dorsey (2010), Jaxon Shipley (2011), Quandre Diggs (2011), Curtis Riser (2012), Kennedy Estelle (2012)
Analysis: The first real drop-off in the national numbers occurs here, as there is statistically a big difference between the Top 75 (50-50 to be drafted) than the Top 70-140 (less than one in three). Again, the amount of success among Longhorns rated in this group is a drastic failure in recent years, as only Diggs has been drafted among the last 15 prospects since 2008. The number should be four or five times that.
Low four-stars (5.8 Rivals ranking)
Odds of being drafted (nationally): 18.55%
Number of Texas low four-stars: 71
Number of players drafted: 6 (8.45%)
Number of total NFL players: 11 (15.49%)
List of low four-star Longhorns from 2002-12: Tully Janszen (2002), Marco Martin (2002), Robert Timmons (2002), Garnett Smith (2002), Erick Hardeman (2003), Steve Richardson (2003), Dallas Griffin (2003), Erick Jackson (2003), Tyrell Gatewood (2003), Robert Killebrew (2003), Jordan Shipley (2004), George Walker (2004), Greg Dolan (2004), Ramonce Taylor (2004), Brian Orakpo (2004), Bobby Tatum (2004), Chris Brown (2005), Aaron Lewis (2005), Ishie Oduegwu (2005), Quan Cosby (2005), Buck Burnette (2006), Montre Webber (2006), Robert Joseph (2006), Phillip Payne (2006), Kyle Hix (2007), Fozzy Whittaker (2007), Russell Carter (2007), Brandon Collins (2007), Blaine Irby (2007), James Kirkendoll (2007), Jeremy Hills (2008), David Snow (2008), Kheeston Randall (2008), Nolan Brewster (2008), Dravannti Johnson (2008), D.J. Grant (2008), Thomas Ashcraft (2009), Eryon Barnett (2009), Kenny Vaccaro (2009), Tariq Allen (2009), Derek Johnson (2009), Tevin Mims (2009), John Harris (2010), Darius Terrell (2010), Aaron Benson (2010), Carrington Byndom (2010), Traylon Shead (2010), Bryant Jackson (2010), Greg Daniels (2010), Demarco Cobbs (2010),; Chet Moss (2011), Josh Cochran (2011), Desmond Jackson (2011), Mykelle Thompson (2011), M.J. McFarland (2011), Sheroid Evans (2011), Sedrick Flowers (2011), Kendall Thompson (2011), Garrett Greenlea (2011), Cedric Reed (2011), Josh Turner (2011), Quincy Russell (2011), Connor Brewer (2012), Duke Thomas (2012), Hassan Ridgeway (2012), Bryson Echols (2012), Paul Boyette (2012), Peter Jinkens (2012), Camrhom Hughes (2012), Tim Cole (2012), Donald Hawkins (2012), Daje Johnson (2012) and Shiro Davis (2012)
Note: Paul Boyette was not included in the numbers because he just finished his senior season.
Analysis: Historically, the national numbers translate to about one out of every five low four star players being drafted by NFL teams, but the Longhorns are underperforming at a rate of greater than one in 10, as only two of the 31 low four-star prospects that arrived in the program from 2010-2012 were drafted by NFL teams.
High three-stars (5.7 Rivals ranking)
Odds of being drafted (nationally): 8.43%
Number of Texas high three-stars: 41
Number of players drafted: 3 (7.31%)
Number of total NFL players: 4 (9.75%)
List of high three-star Longhorns from 2002-12: Brett Valdez (2002), Clint Haney (2002), Matthew Melton (2002), Thomas Marshall (2003), Steve Hogan (2003), Eric Foreman (2003), Nathan Jones (2004), Chris Ogbonnaya (2004), Adam Ulatoski (2004), Nick Redwine (2004), Roddrick Muckelroy (2005), Michael Houston (2005), Jerrell Wilkerson (2005), Dustin Earnest (2006), Britt Mitchell (2006), Brian Ellis (2006), Ben Alexander (2006), Sherrod Harris (2006), Josh Marshall (2006), James Henry (2006), Ahmard Howard (2007), Sam Acho (2007), G.J. Kinne (2007), Ryan Roberson (2007), Emmanuel Acho (2007), Luke Poehlmann (2007), Antoine Hicks (2007) Tre Newton (2007), Paden Kelley (2009), Barrett Matthews (2009), Trey Graham (2009), Adrian White (2010), Taylor Doyle (2011), Miles Onyegbule (2011), David Ash (2011), Joe Bergeron (2011), Leroy Scott (2011), Alex Norman (2012), Alex De la Torre (2012), Marcus Johnson (2012), Adrian Colbert (2012) and Dalton Santos (2012)
Note: Adrian Colbert is not included in the numbers because he just finished his senior season at Miami.
Analysis: The state of Texas often overperforms against the national numbers within this tier set, but the Longhorns come within 1.1-percentage points of the larger metric. Amazingly, the Acho bothers represent two of the three prospects from this tier that the Longhorns have had drafted over a full decade.
Mid three-stars (5.6 Rivals ranking)
Odds of being drafted (nationally): 6.37%
Number of Texas mid three-stars: 21
Number of players drafted: 2 (9.52%)
Number of total NFL players: 2 (9.52%)
List of mid three-star Longhorns from 2002-12: Marcus Myers (2002), Brian Robison (2002), Scott Derry (2003), Kyle Thornton (2003), Brandon Foster (2003), Ryan Palmer (2004), Derek Lokey (2004), Charlie Tanner (2005), Colt McCoy (2005), Chris Hall (2006), Steve Moore (2006), Greg Smith (2006), Antwan Cobb (2006), Dominique Jones (2009), DeAires Cotton (2010), Case McCoy (2010), Marcus Hutchins (2011), Caleb Bluiett (2012), Jalen Overstreet (2012), Brandon Moore (2012) and Bryce Cottrell (2012)
Analysis: Colt McCoy is the outlier here because he was a state top 50-level prospect and the No. 2 quarterback prospect in the state behind Chase Daniel, yet he only garnered a 5.6 rating in 2005, which is stunning in retrospect, but perhaps not as much as the ultra-athletic Robison not ranking as a state top 100 player in 2002.
Low three-stars (5.5 Rivals ranking)
Odds of being drafted (nationally): 5.04%
Number of Texas low three-stars: 14
Number of players drafted: 0 (0.00%)
Number of total NFL players: 1 (7.14%)
List of low three-star Longhorns from 2002-12: Dustin Miksch (2002), Kenton Thornton (2004), Peter Ullman (2004), Jeremy Campbell (2004), Roy Watts (2005), Hunter Lawrence (2005), Michael Wilcoxon (2007), Ian Harris (2007), Brock Fitzhenry (2008), Justin Tucker (2008), Patrick Nkwopara (2009), Kyle Kriegel (2009), William Russ (2010) and Kevin Vaccaro (2012)
Analysis: While Tucker is the only low three-star prospect to sign with Texas that has ever made the NFL, I do want to note for the record that I had him regarded as a high three-star player.
Two-stars (5.4, 5.3 and 5.2 Rivals rankings)
Odds of being drafted (nationally): 1.49%
Number of Texas two-stars: 4
Number of players drafted: 0 (0.00%)
Number of total NFL players: 0 (0.00%)
List of two-star Longhorns from 2002-12: Rashad Bobino (2004), Tyrell Higgins (2007), Blake Gideon (2008) and Nick Jordan (2012)
Analysis: It’s kind of amazing that Texas went an entire decade with four two-star prospects and you’d have to say that it has a decent hit rate in terms of solid players, even if Bobino and Gideon weren’t NFL-level talents.
No. 2 – Putting the numbers into perspective ...
At its most basic level, here’s a look at how you can view the values of ranked prospects in terms of being NFL drafted players.
Last year’s NFL Draft (three-year window based on 2011-13 class averages):
Five star (6.1): 61.35%
High four-star (6.0): 49.5%
Mid four-star (5.9): 30.77%
Low four-star (5.8) 18.55%
High three-star (5.7) 8.43%
Mid three star (5.6): 6.37%
Low three-star (5.5) 5.04%
Any two star: (<5.4) 1.49%
All-time Texas Longhorns results in the Rivals rankings era (2002-12)
Five star (6.1): 55.0%
High four-star (6.0) 32.36%
Mid four-star (5.9): 22.22%
Low four-star (5.8) 8.45%
High three-star (5.7) 7.31%
Mid three star (5.6): 9.52%
Low three-star (5.5) 0.00%
Any two star (<5.4): 0.00%
Take all personal bias away and eliminate the names, all you’re left with are the numbers.
If you’re looking for a formula that equates to winning or losing at a nationally elite level, the most simplistic way of viewing things is through the success of the Texas program. When the Longhorns were playing at top five levels on the field, their percentages across the board at each of the top recruiting tier (five and four stars) were above the national averages. Over the course of the last six or seven years, those percentages have plummeted below the national averages.
For instance, the Longhorns currently have eight three-star prospects in this class. Based on last year’s draft numbers, only one out of every 16 three-star prospects over a three-year average was selected, which means the math says it’s probably 50-50 that one of the eight prospects currently committed in that three-star range will end up drafted.
In order for the 2017 class to be a huge success, it’s going to need its group of three-stars to greatly overperform against the expectations the data creates for us. You’d have to think that if the Longhorns are going to be playing in the four-team playoff by the end of the decade, Texas will need at least three or four from that three-star group to be playing at a draftable level.
The math says it’s unlikely. History shows that it’s not impossible (see Charlie Strong’s recruiting classes at Louisville).
We might not be at the point where recruiting is an exact science, but it’s not exactly a pseudoscience, either.
After all, this isn’t rocket surgery.
No. 3 – UT’s 8th Wonder of the World …
What the &*%$ was Rivals thinking?
Other than Rashad Bobino, there’s never been a player in the Rivals rankings that has signed with Texas rated lower than D’Onta Foreman.
What the &*%$?
Let’s forget for a moment that technically Foreman was worse than 50-1 to emerge as a drafted NFL prospect based on his ranking, let alone the No. 1 running back in college football, which officially makes him the greatest two-star prospect in Texas Longhorns football history by 10 country miles.
Let’s forget that for just a moment.
While I am a Rivals company man through and through, I can’t help but remain staggered that Foreman was ranked as a two-star player, especially when you consider his profile.
He was fully vetted from a scouting standpoint, as he was evaluated in person by Rivals in camps and games.
He was ranked as a high-three star in the LSR Top 100 (No. 76 overall).
Foreman had a monster senior season at Texas City, rushing for more than 2,000 yards and 10 yards per carry.
He had power five offers from Texas, Kansas State, Missouri, Utah, Illinois and Washington State.
Yet, when it was all said and done, he wasn’t rated among the top 150 prospects from Texas in 2014 based on the Rivals rankings. It didn’t make sense then and it definitely doesn’t make sense now.
Honestly, I don’t know if I can remember another instance when I had a player ranked in the top 80 in the state, yet he wasn’t ranked as a low three-star prospect by the Rivals crew. There was disagreement among the OB staff about how high he should have been positioned in the rankings, but none would have suggested he was one of the top five lowest-ranked kids that the Longhorns had ever taken.
I mean … not even a low three-star ranking?
What the &*%$?
No. 4– Pop quiz: Worst recruiting class in history ...
Is it the 15-man class in 2013, which claims Tyrone Swoopes as its best player, perhaps Kent Perkins as its No. 2 player and potentially Geoff Swaim as its only NFL player?
Or...
Is it the 23-man class in 2014, which claims D'Onta Foreman as its best player, perhaps Poona Ford as its No. 2 player and...
Nope, I'm not even going to try finishing the sentence. I've never seen anything around these parts like the 2013 class, which just happens to be the remains of the current Texas roster.
No. 5 – Buy or sell …
BUY or SELL: A Kyle Allen transfer to Texas (with two years left to play and Sam Ehlinger waiting in the wings) would lead to a Shane Buechele transfer after this upcoming season?
(Sell) While Allen would increase the depth in numbers, it remains to be seen whether he would be the answer in terms of winning the starting job. In 20 career games, he essentially has the same quarterback rating that Buechele has in 12 games. You can make a case that with another year of experience and development under his belt, Buechele has a chance to be much better than a guy with a career 138-rating.
BUY or SELL: Six conference titles during Tom Herman's tenure at Texas?
(Sell) Since 1990, Texas has won five unshared conference championships and only two in the last 20 years. The smart money is going under that number, regardless of the excitement you might feel upon Herman’s hire.
BUY or SELL: Oliver Luck is the next AD?
(Sell): You’d think he’d be a hot name and it would be as easy as circling back and making the offer, but I get the sense that the timing isn’t the same as it was in 2013 and that it will be someone else who follows Mike Perrin.
BUY or SELL: We go into the USC game undefeated and College Gameday is there that week?
(Sell) I expect Texas to be 2-0 going into the game, but I expect Gameday to be at Tennessee/Florida, as that’s the early game of the year in the overrated SEC East.
BUY or SELL: USC is at least a 14 point favorite against Texas?
(Sell) I’ll go below that and set the line at 10 ½.
BUY or SELL: The 2017 Texas football program will have a support staff that will be top 5 in the country.
(Sell) I’m going to say it’s not humming along at that level until year two under Herman.
BUY or SELL: Texas offense and defense are both ranked in the top 30 next year, with biggest improvement being in scoring defense?
(Sell) If the Longhorns pull that off, we’re talking about a 10-2 type season and I’m not quite ready to go there. Only five teams pulled that off this season - Louisville, Clemson, Western Michigan, Southern Miss and Florida State
BUY or SELL: Texas finishes with a better record in 2017 than Texas A&M?
(Buy) I’ve got the Aggies going 7-5 (at best) in 2017. We’re talking about a schedule with road games at UCLA, Florida, Ole Miss and LSU, a neutral site game against Arkansas, and home games against Alabama and Auburn.
BUY or SELL: Tom Herman & Charlie Strong are the head coaches of their current respective teams when Texas hosts South Florida on September 5, 2020?
(Sell) I think Charlie is going to cash in on what was left for him at South Florida into a power five job somewhere.
BUY or SELL: Stan Drayton is the first coach to leave in the next few years for a promotion?
(Sell) There’s a good chance that Todd Orlando could be a head coach before anyone else advances to a head coach or coordinator job.
BUY or SELL: Matt Coleman signs with Texas?
(Buy) I think.
BUY or SELL: The Austin Metro Area is the 35th most populous area and growing as of July 2015 and is the seconnd largest metro area (Vegas is #1) without a Pro Sports Team. B/S: Austin will gain a MLB, NFL, NHL or NBA team in the next 10 years?
(Sell) The University of Texas is this city’s pro sports franchise.
No. 6 – I don’t really have any Texas basketball thoughts this weekend …
Yes, I watched Texas at Iowa State.
No, I didn’t really have any original thoughts in watching the game. Texas played sloppy. Texas played hard. Texas didn’t really deserve to win.
It is what it is.
No. 7 – Dear Cowboys fans, I’ve got good news and bad news …
Ding dong, the Wicked Witch of the East is eliminated. Whatever happens next weekend, it won’t be a carbon copy of what happened in January of 2008.
If I’m being totally honest, I didn’t want to see the Giants next week at Jerry World.
In having that demon removed from this season, we’re left with taking on Aaron Rodgers. The best quarterback these eyes have ever seen and the player, more than anyone else in the NFL, that is white hot.
Oh well. No one said winning a sixth Super Bowl would be easy. In Dak, Zeke and Rod, I trust.
Still, I’d be lying if I didn’t admit that I’m going to be more nervous than a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs.
Bonus NFL thoughts...
... I really wanted Jadeveon Clowney to take that interception to the house.
... I just don't know what to tell Texans fans about next week, other than good luck.
... Detroit never had a chance of winning in Seattle.
... Antonio Brown is going to need to be the same guy next week as he was on Sunday if the Steelers are going to beat Kansas City. .
No. 8 – Alabama 23 Clemson 20 …
The truly special element of this match-up is the Alabama defense, which not only ranks No. 1 in total defense this season and had nine different players score touchdowns, but it’s the only defense in the country to hold teams below four yards per play (.35 better than No. 2 Michigan)
DeShaun Watson is terrific. The Clemson defense is no slouch. Dabo is knocking on the door of elite status.
The Bama defense might end up being iconic, though, which is why I’m taking the Tide and ignoring the fact that it is at a major disadvantage at quarterback.
After letting Watson rip its backside a year ago, the Tide defense will respond with an iron fist, giving Darth Saban his fifth national championship.
No. 9 – This and That ...
… Thing that annoys me that might just be a me issue: When a waiter at a restaurant approaches you with a question within a millisecond of you taking a bite of your food and then stands there watching you rush through your chewing to give him or her an answer, instead of coming back 30-60 seconds later.
… Our DVR got wiped this weekend without anyone trying to delete any shows and the thing that my wife was most upset about losing was her four unseen episodes of Antiques Roadshow.
… Loved La La Land. From the very beginning until the very end. Loved it. It’s insane how much chemistry Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone have together. I’d definitely have some internal questions if I was the significant other of either.
… Thought Fences was really, really good, but I didn’t walk out feeling like I had seen a special movie as much as I felt like I had seen a couple special performances.
… My updated Oscars rankings (based on movies that I have seen)
Best Picture
1. Arrival
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. La-la Land
4. Fences
5. Hell or High Water
6. Miss Sloane
7. Moonlight
8. Sully
9. Birth of a Nation
10. Queen of Katwe
Best Actor
1. Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
2. Denzel Washington (Fences)
3. Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
3. Tom Hanks (Sully)
5. Joseph Gordon-Levitt (Snowden)
Best Actress
1. Emma Stone (La La Land))
2. Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)
3. Amy Adams (Arrival)
4. Marion Cotillard (Allied)
5. Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
2. Andre Holland (Moonlight)
3. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
4. Mykelti Williamson (Fences)
5. Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Viola Davis (Fences)
2. Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
3. Naomi Harris (Moonlight)
4. Gugu Mbatha Raw (Miss Sloane)
5. Lupita Nyong’o (Queen of Katwe)
Best Director
1. Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
2. Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
3. Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
4. Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
5. Denzel Washington (Fences)
No. 10 - And finally …
Apparently, this popped up on my Facebook page five years ago. This is my national anthem face as a senior at McCallum High School. FYI, the guy standing in front of my is Chris Roberts, who later walked on to the Texas football team. Enjoy.
