Saw this on SI during my morning reads.
In a discussion about MVP candidates.
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Let’s not write off Durant just yet, however, even if his candidacy requires acknowledging a few weaknesses up front. Yes, Durant jumped ship to a stacked team. Yes, he has far more help than either Harden or Westbrook and therefore can’t match their mind-blowing per-game numbers. Yes, Golden State isn’t quite matching its record pace from last year. Yes, Durant’s scoring is down considerably from his 2014 MVP campaign, given that Golden State doesn’t need the same heavy lifting he performed in Oklahoma City. And, yes, he has endured some early-season struggles late in games.
Voters willing to look past Durant’s off-season decision—and to judge him against Harden and Westbrook rather than holding him to the standard set by 2016 Stephen Curry and the 73-win Warriors—will find a deep and compelling case. Durant is the best player on a team that has a chance to post the best point differential ever and become just the third 70-win team in NBA history. He is an obscenely efficient offensive weapon and the leading scorer for the league’s best offense. He is a much-improved defensive player for the league’s best defense whose impact on that end far exceeds both Harden and Westbrook. And he’s been such a clean fit in Golden State that his statistical decline is easily explained by his reduced minutes and usage, and the Warriors’ regular habit of blowing teams off the court.
The following chart of the NBA’s top 50 scorers helps put Durant’s scoring volume (Points Per Game) and efficiency (True Shooting %) into context.
Durant’s 65.8 TS% is tops by a wide margin. Remarkably, Durant is both scoring more and shooting more efficiently than Curry, who has become the gold standard for this volume/efficiency comparison in recent years. Indeed, the only player since 1990 to best Durant’s scoring volume/efficiency combination was Curry during his record-busting 2015–16 season, when he was unanimously voted MVP. So, great company.
Defensively, Durant has made some noise in a good way, too, posting a career-best 1.7 blocks per game and managing to be one of just nine players to average at least one steal and one block per game. Golden State currently possesses the NBA’s best defense (Oklahoma City is tied for seventh and Houston is tied for 19th) and, per NBA.com, Durant’s interior defense stats (57.5% allowed on 21.6 attempts per game from within five feet) are similar to Defensive Player of the Year candidate Draymond Green’s (57.1% on 20.7 attempts). Right now, Durant’s 1.87 Defensive Real Plus Minus (DRPM) bests both Harden (-1.22) and Westbrook (0.03) and he ranks third in Defensive Win Shares behind only Jazz center Rudy Gobert and Green.
That got pretty dense. Let’s zoom back out and take a look at history. While plenty of attention has been given to Westbrook’s triple double output and Harden’s insane 28.8 PPG/8.2 RPG/11.5 APG line, Durant is cooking up a unique line himself thanks to his defensive statistics.
Here’s the list of players who can match Durant’s 26.3 PPG/8.4 RPG/4.7APG/1.7 BPG/1 SPG line in all five categories…
• 1974 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: MVP
• 1976 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: MVP
• 1994 David Robinson: MVP Runner-Up
So, again, great company.
Will Durant’s unique package of skills and Golden State’s success be enough to move him past both of his former teammates? That remains to be seen. But it should be awfully hard to ignore him if he finishes the season as the best player on a 70-win team, with a convincing case as the best two-way performer among the top three candidates, and with all-around statistics last season more than 20 years ago.
In a discussion about MVP candidates.
******
Let’s not write off Durant just yet, however, even if his candidacy requires acknowledging a few weaknesses up front. Yes, Durant jumped ship to a stacked team. Yes, he has far more help than either Harden or Westbrook and therefore can’t match their mind-blowing per-game numbers. Yes, Golden State isn’t quite matching its record pace from last year. Yes, Durant’s scoring is down considerably from his 2014 MVP campaign, given that Golden State doesn’t need the same heavy lifting he performed in Oklahoma City. And, yes, he has endured some early-season struggles late in games.
Voters willing to look past Durant’s off-season decision—and to judge him against Harden and Westbrook rather than holding him to the standard set by 2016 Stephen Curry and the 73-win Warriors—will find a deep and compelling case. Durant is the best player on a team that has a chance to post the best point differential ever and become just the third 70-win team in NBA history. He is an obscenely efficient offensive weapon and the leading scorer for the league’s best offense. He is a much-improved defensive player for the league’s best defense whose impact on that end far exceeds both Harden and Westbrook. And he’s been such a clean fit in Golden State that his statistical decline is easily explained by his reduced minutes and usage, and the Warriors’ regular habit of blowing teams off the court.
The following chart of the NBA’s top 50 scorers helps put Durant’s scoring volume (Points Per Game) and efficiency (True Shooting %) into context.
Durant’s 65.8 TS% is tops by a wide margin. Remarkably, Durant is both scoring more and shooting more efficiently than Curry, who has become the gold standard for this volume/efficiency comparison in recent years. Indeed, the only player since 1990 to best Durant’s scoring volume/efficiency combination was Curry during his record-busting 2015–16 season, when he was unanimously voted MVP. So, great company.
Defensively, Durant has made some noise in a good way, too, posting a career-best 1.7 blocks per game and managing to be one of just nine players to average at least one steal and one block per game. Golden State currently possesses the NBA’s best defense (Oklahoma City is tied for seventh and Houston is tied for 19th) and, per NBA.com, Durant’s interior defense stats (57.5% allowed on 21.6 attempts per game from within five feet) are similar to Defensive Player of the Year candidate Draymond Green’s (57.1% on 20.7 attempts). Right now, Durant’s 1.87 Defensive Real Plus Minus (DRPM) bests both Harden (-1.22) and Westbrook (0.03) and he ranks third in Defensive Win Shares behind only Jazz center Rudy Gobert and Green.
That got pretty dense. Let’s zoom back out and take a look at history. While plenty of attention has been given to Westbrook’s triple double output and Harden’s insane 28.8 PPG/8.2 RPG/11.5 APG line, Durant is cooking up a unique line himself thanks to his defensive statistics.
Here’s the list of players who can match Durant’s 26.3 PPG/8.4 RPG/4.7APG/1.7 BPG/1 SPG line in all five categories…
• 1974 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: MVP
• 1976 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: MVP
• 1994 David Robinson: MVP Runner-Up
So, again, great company.
Will Durant’s unique package of skills and Golden State’s success be enough to move him past both of his former teammates? That remains to be seen. But it should be awfully hard to ignore him if he finishes the season as the best player on a 70-win team, with a convincing case as the best two-way performer among the top three candidates, and with all-around statistics last season more than 20 years ago.
