The madness of March begins tomorrow as the 2017 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament takes sports’ center stage. It’s a time of the year to crunch numbers, fill out brackets, uncover whatever gambling money is available, and find somewhere with good food, cold drinks, and at least four televisions without viewing radius.
What fans won’t see during March Madness is Texas. The Longhorns finally met the end to their disappointing, 11-22 season in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament. Merely saying the record out loud immediately begs the question in an astonishing tone – what the heck happened?
My attempt to highlight a lot of the factors that played into an unacceptable season on the 40 Acres, and what a look into the future appears like:
WHERE DID IT GO WRONG?
1) Coaching
Let’s just start where it needs to start: 11-22 is on the Texas coaching staff, and it starts with Shaka Smart. It’s going to follow Smart and his guys around forever, and will probably turn out to be the year that defines his career one way or another. Because Texas is either going to be much better after this, making 11-22 an anomaly, or it’s not going to be good enough to avoid 11-22 emerging continuously from the dark shadows.
After being smacked around in Brooklyn by two quality opponents – Northwestern and Colorado – and losing at home to a quality UT Arlington team that then went on the road to beat top 15 St. Mary’s shortly thereafter, it was clear Texas wasn't within miles of being a legitimate top 25 team, as Smart hinted at preseason. But after that event, the Longhorns, from the bottom, started to improve. It wasn’t getting consistent results, but it went toe-to-toe with two tournament teams away from home (Arkansas and Michigan) and beat a near tournament team (Alabama) before one of the worst home losses in program history (Kent State).
Over the next 12 games, Texas played in eight decided by four points or less (4-4), and played just one team outside the KenPom.com top 56 (Oklahoma). But the improvement stopped after that, which led to a seven-game losing streak, including four-straight by double-digits before Texas’ Big 12 Tournament win over Texas Tech.
The offense never improved all season. Sure, there were stretches of bright spots most games, and some minor improvements here or there, like simple passes actually being made, better ballhandling and decision-making, and the ball being thrown inside more. However, a dysfunctional half-court stretch of basketball always plagued the Longhorns every single game, and they never truly moved away from their common sets and plan. Out of 351 teams nationally, Texas finished 345th in three-point shooting percentage, which played a significant role in its No. 178 offensive efficiency ranking.
In the end, Texas, despite being the No. 22 defensive efficiency team in the country, was simply never good enough to get positive results in the win-loss column against its loaded schedule, and routinely lost games the same way – by giving up one big run a game to the opposition. Outside of the win versus Texas Tech, the Longhorns plateaued to finish the season instead of playing their best basketball.
Simply put, Smart must be much, much better next season. Any questions about whether or not this is going to work at Texas are fair, and they’re the questions Smart is going to need to answer with next year’s team. No excuses.
2) The roster
Let’s also be honest about another thing that became clear when games started happening: the Texas roster wasn’t strong.
Texas had three seniors, and if Earth is the NBA radar, those three are on the Moon. Making the NBA is hard, and playing professionally overseas isn’t a guarantee either. What hoops fans miss on most often in discussing teams is the importance of good, veteran players. Kansas has them. Villanova has them. North Carolina has them. Duke has them. UCLA has them. Michigan State had a very young, but talented team this year and shouldn’t have made the tournament. Kentucky, the only team that truly does the all one-and-done method, even has two seniors that are valuable.
Coaches win in college basketball by signing and developing talented, three to four-year college players and adding in elite freshmen when the opportunity arises. It’s the method Bill Self, Izzo, Roy Williams, Coach K, and others have mastered. Coaches establish a culture, recruit, develop, and it turns into a cycle. Some seasons are better than others, but a nucleus of good, four-year players makes seasons like 11-22 almost impossible.
The Longhorns had an adequate, role-playing big in Shaquille Cleare, who could score on offense but was often a mismatch on defense. Mareik Isom was never truly healthy, and even then wouldn’t have been a player that would routinely start or provide significant impact over 25 minutes. Kendal Yancy would have been a nice, complimentary bench piece on good team when he dedicated himself to playing with maximum effort. A starter in the Big 12? No.
Texas had no active juniors, finished the year with two sophomores that couldn’t shoulder the load, and its two five-star freshmen were its two best players while the other two showed they were, as expected when they signed, four-year college players.
Texas and Oklahoma were the only teams in the Big 12 that didn’t start at least two juniors or seniors, and many teams started at least three juniors or seniors. It’s not a coincidence that Texas and Oklahoma also finished at the bottom of the toughest league in college hoops.
Over time, the six freshmen and sophomores that made up the roster to end the season will show more and more of their talent. That time, besides Allen and flashes of Jones, wasn’t this season.
3) Lack of leadership
Like clockwork, Texas would often watch other teams go on something like a 10-0 run out of a timeout, and from there would either trade buckets the rest of the way or almost accept defeat. No one on the roster was able and/or willing to figuratively grab the team by the neck and put an end to those runs. So, the runs happened over and over and over again.
Smart is trying to create a culture that is defined my maximum effort, confidence, and aggression. Clearly, that didn’t happen this season. It better happen next season.
Ideally, Smart’s program fosters player leadership that grabs the bull by the horns. Behind the scenes and publicly from the mouths of players, people were almost amazed at how positive Smart was with his team, refusing to let the disastrous season affect his energy and the way he tried to motivate players and develop the team. Although everyone was ready to turn the page, they weren’t completely broken, which is kind of surprising.
However, the program lacked players to set the leadership tone, and Smart and his staff should have been more proactive in that regard. It’s one thing to acknowledge the makeup of your team; it’s another thing for a coach to acknowledge that, then try to implement aggressive methods to counteract it.
Maybe over time in the grand scheme this season will prove to be one that sparks the player-led leadership and mindset Texas wants to infect its program. But in a vacuum of an individual season, Texas was like a dish the chef knew needed salt only to avoid adding enough.
4) The point guard situation
Ask yourself this: Would you rather have Andrew Jones and Matt Coleman for multiple seasons, or an average point guard this season and the legitimate possibility of no Jones or Coleman at all?
If Texas had just a decent, true point guard, what would the ceiling of 2017 be? 17 wins? Bubble? NIT? Over time, it became clear there was more to a disappointing 2017 than a point guard. Quality graduate transfer point guards don’t grow on trees, and selling a transfer point guard on Isaiah Taylor leaving after his junior season, immediately after that coach was hired, isn’t as easy as it sounds.
That being said, Texas’ production at that position wasn’t acceptable, and the coaching staff should have done a better job getting more out of Kerwin Roach, Jr. and should have featured Andrew Jones’ passing and vision more.
5) Tevin Mack and injuries
Isom being healthy all year could have made a key difference in three areas: on-court intelligence, a semblance of perimeter shooter, and lineup versatility. The truth about his ankle is that it’s probably still not fully healed even today, and how it bounced back after games was inconsistent. Now, Isom wasn’t the difference between a few wins and losses, but in a season desperate for anything it could find, he could have helped, which we saw in flashes to end the season.
As for Mack, on one hand he was the first guy the new staff signed to Texas, so booting him from the team two years into the program is on them. On the other hand, his skills and on-court production were starting to develop like planned, and when he was suspended January 12th, Texas lost its best scorer at the time, a perimeter shooter, and its only true wing that allowed it to play with small lineups. Plus, he had chances and plenty of time to get his act in order, and he didn't. That's on him.
Mack was really, really progressing on the floor, but his behavior off of it presented Smart with a tough decision: sacrifice culture for production? From what I heard, Mack, who made no reference to an apology in his statement he tweeted out after Smart announced he would be released, didn’t take the time to apologize to his teammates.
6) Shooting
Want to know something scary?
When you subtract Mack’s three-point makes and attempts from the season total, Texas shot 27.6 percent from three as a team.
Eric Davis’ sophomore slump is mystifying, especially considering a sizable portion of his perimeter misses in Big 12 play were quality looks. He’s proven before he can make that shot at a high clip, and Texas desperately needs him to next season.
But Jacob Young was brought in to be a sniper from the perimeter that eventually evolved into a solid guard in time. He attempted 110 threes and shot a putrid 22.7 percent. Smart maintains that Young will be a good college player when he develops. We’ll see. The Longhorns need Young to become a much better perimeter shooter immediately, and the concerning aspect is Young is more of a volume three-point shooter – a player that needs a few to find his stroke and rhythm – rather than a spot-up, knockdown shooter, like Iowa State’s Matt Thomas. When Young took his time, used his legs, and followed through in rhythm, the ball looked good. But too often he’d rush throw threes off-balanced and just fling them to shoot them.
The future roster should generate better looks from deep at a much higher rate, and limit those late-clock, forced three-pointers. However, it’s not a guarantee that Texas is significantly better from beyond the arc next season. Incoming guard Jase Febres will help.
7) The schedule
Texas’ schedule, according to KenPom.com, finished No. 3 toughest nationally. Once the calendar turned to December 30th, the Longhorns played 18 top 50 teams to end the season, which accounted for 86-percent of its schedule from that point. Texas played just six games against teams ranked outside the top 100, didn't play a 100+ team after December 30th, and faced 10 top 20 teams.
The following high-major programs were ranked behind Texas in overall efficiency, meaning if the two teams met on a neutral floor tomorrow, Texas would likely be the favorite, a pick ‘em, or a one or two-point underdog despite the abysmal record:
Mississippi (21-13), BYU (22-11), Pittsburgh (16-17), San Diego State (19-14), Auburn (18-14), Mississippi State (16-16), Memphis (19-13), and more.
Texas’ roster deficiencies and coaching performance were magnified by arguably the nation’s hardest schedule, which included 17 games against NCAA Tournament teams, and six games against NIT teams. Unlike most years, there was no break in the Big 12 schedule. Every team on Texas' schedule was ranked 66th or better, including 8 in the top 50 and five in the top 30.
Texas went 4-8 in games decided by four points or less, and of those 12 games 10 came against top 50 teams.
8) Development
Jarrett Allen, James Banks, Andrew Jones, and Shaq Cleare all improved. The rest? Not so much, most notably Davis and Roach. During the 2015-16 season, Smart and his staff did a terrific job of individual development. This season it was good in places and bad in others.
SO, WHAT HAPPENS NOW…
1) A lot of reflection, analyzation, and dissection to ensure that Texas is on the right path, and can win immediately next season to spark a continuous streak of solid basketball in the years forward.
Whatever Smart believes needs to be done to accelerate the establishment of culture, development of players, roster construction, and ability on the floor next season, it needs to be done. The Texas head coach stated multiple times in the past he will fully evaluate every aspect of his program to change anything that needs to be changed.
2) After some time to hit the reset button, Texas needs a ringleader to get the team into the gym and grind with the type of effort and mindset that improves skill. I think that guy is Dylan Osetkowski.
3) Texas waits on Jarrett Allen to decide if he’ll return to school, or turn professional. At this point, nothing has changed. No one seems to know which way the future decision is likely heading, and the common thought seems to be 50-50.
Allen said he’ll talk to his family and do what’s best for his future. He can either bet on himself to come off the board between 15-30 in the draft, or come back for another season, get even better touches, a full offseason, and bet on himself to be selected between 5-15.
4) The Longhorns will turn up the intensity in recruiting. They need a wing, and they’ll bring one in this weekend for a visit in the form of super-athletic, 6-5 Lakeview Centennial senior Zhaire Smith. Obviously, they’re still pursuing five-star big man Mohamed Bamba as much as anyone and are firmly in the hunt there. Plus, 6-4 combo guard Mark Smith, who I think is a future star the more I see and hear about him, is on Texas’ radar as well. Don’t be surprised if Texas gets him on campus for a visit soon.
As the potential transfer list builds, the Longhorns will do their homework and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they heavily pursue a transfer or two as well. Plus, there will be top recruits released from their LOIs now that the coaching carousel has begun to spin.
LOOKING AHEAD…
1) Will point guard be handled better next season?
Yes. Matt Coleman represents everything Texas needs at that position, should provide an immediate vocal presence too, and will be in the program multiple seasons. He’s arguably the best true point guard in the country, and his shooting and handling continue to progress.
Coleman is a perfect complement to players like Jones, Roach, and Davis.
Personally, I think Coleman is going to change the Texas basketball program. He’s the kind of competitor, player, and has the personality to bring the best out of teammates and coaches.
Now, is he the answer to all Texas’ problems? No. And he’ll have his freshmen bumps in the road too. But there’s no reason why he can’t make a similar impact to what freshmen point guards like Anthony Cowan (Maryland), Payton Pritchard (Oregon), Cassius Winston (Michigan State) did for their respective programs.
2) Will the roster be more experienced?
Well, I’m not it’s possible for it not to be considering the minutes Texas’ seniors played this year. The Longhorns will have three juniors, three or four sophomores (depending on Allen), four to six freshmen (depending on recruiting), and the possibility to add a transfer (either regular or graduate).
3) Will the roster be more versatile and athletic?
The biggest difference, besides a true point guard, between the 2016-17 Texas roster and the 2017-18 version will be its versatility and athleticism.
Osetkowski, who would have pushed Allen as the best player on the team this season, is a true inside-outside presence at the four that can shoot, pass, dribble, rebound and score. Texas signees Royce Hamm and Jericho Sims are combo forwards that will eventually be able to make plays from the perimeter. Sims, who is 6-9 with a ridiculous 7-9 wingspan, can jump out of the gym and has underrated skill (he played shooting guard and point guard his previous seasons in high school prior to senior campaign). Hamm is more of a pick-and-pop player similar to a Connor Lammert-type, but with more bounce and athleticism. Both players will need time, but both can make plays inside and outside.
If Texas can add a wing or another taller guard to play wing, the possible lineup constructions change dramatically as do what Texas can do schematically, which would possibly include using more full-court, aggressive defenses because of increased depth, athleticism, and length.
4) Will the roster be more talented?
Yes, but Texas desperately needs Allen to stay, Bamba to pick Texas, or both. If someone wanted to attempt to convince me Sims has five-star ceiling, I’d buy it, but he’s not polished enough to come in and feature immediately. James Banks is going to be a good player in time, but he’s more defense than offense right now and is still learning the game.
Allen would be a perfect complement to Osetkowski in the frontcourt because Osetkowski could facilitate offense from the perimeter, inside when Allen steps out, or at the elbows. Throw in a true point guard, talented guards in natural spots off the ball, and an Allen-led roster would feature a really solid seven to eight-man rotation, followed by the young depth to provide energy and spark when needed.
If he doesn’t return and Texas misses on Bamba, the roster would still be better in terms of construction, talent, depth, athleticism, and versatility. However, it would be a stretch to look at it and think it would compete for a Big 12 title. Of course, hitting a home run in the form of a graduate transfer would help, but most graduate transfers are graduate transfers for a reason.
5) Will Texas be better next season?
It better be or the questions following this season will only intensify.
ONE FINAL THOUGHT…
Smart has routinely stated he knew when he took the Texas job the second year was going to be especially tough before all the roster turnover. I know he, duh, wanted to win every game this season; despite the always positive vibes he gives up publicly, he’s a very intense competitor away from the public eye. I think Texas knew it would probably have to deal with a rough ride this season in order to make sure the future wasn’t sacrificed.
Remember in the 2004 ALCS when Tim Wakefield had to wear it for his team in game three? The Yankees jumped all over Boston starter Bronson Arroyo early, and were up 13-6 after five. They eventually won 19-8, to take a 3-0 lead. Wakefield, even though he was getting drilled, threw 3.1 innings that game to save Boston's bullpen. He was a human white flag for a city and team that hadn't won a ring since 1918, and was on the verge of being knocked out again by the arch rivals. Because he was okay in that role, Francona didn't have to sacrifice his chances to pull off the miraculous four-game comeback by using other bullpen arms. After that game, Boston had to win four games in four days, and did.
We could look back at 2016-17 as a necessary evil for Texas Basketball to get back to consistently winning games at a high level. Or we might not, and view it instead as a danger sign for struggles ahead. We’ll see. That’s for Smart to answer with his 2017-18 team, and with a roster that will be made up of his guys almost entirely.
What fans won’t see during March Madness is Texas. The Longhorns finally met the end to their disappointing, 11-22 season in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament. Merely saying the record out loud immediately begs the question in an astonishing tone – what the heck happened?
My attempt to highlight a lot of the factors that played into an unacceptable season on the 40 Acres, and what a look into the future appears like:
WHERE DID IT GO WRONG?
1) Coaching
Let’s just start where it needs to start: 11-22 is on the Texas coaching staff, and it starts with Shaka Smart. It’s going to follow Smart and his guys around forever, and will probably turn out to be the year that defines his career one way or another. Because Texas is either going to be much better after this, making 11-22 an anomaly, or it’s not going to be good enough to avoid 11-22 emerging continuously from the dark shadows.
After being smacked around in Brooklyn by two quality opponents – Northwestern and Colorado – and losing at home to a quality UT Arlington team that then went on the road to beat top 15 St. Mary’s shortly thereafter, it was clear Texas wasn't within miles of being a legitimate top 25 team, as Smart hinted at preseason. But after that event, the Longhorns, from the bottom, started to improve. It wasn’t getting consistent results, but it went toe-to-toe with two tournament teams away from home (Arkansas and Michigan) and beat a near tournament team (Alabama) before one of the worst home losses in program history (Kent State).
Over the next 12 games, Texas played in eight decided by four points or less (4-4), and played just one team outside the KenPom.com top 56 (Oklahoma). But the improvement stopped after that, which led to a seven-game losing streak, including four-straight by double-digits before Texas’ Big 12 Tournament win over Texas Tech.
The offense never improved all season. Sure, there were stretches of bright spots most games, and some minor improvements here or there, like simple passes actually being made, better ballhandling and decision-making, and the ball being thrown inside more. However, a dysfunctional half-court stretch of basketball always plagued the Longhorns every single game, and they never truly moved away from their common sets and plan. Out of 351 teams nationally, Texas finished 345th in three-point shooting percentage, which played a significant role in its No. 178 offensive efficiency ranking.
In the end, Texas, despite being the No. 22 defensive efficiency team in the country, was simply never good enough to get positive results in the win-loss column against its loaded schedule, and routinely lost games the same way – by giving up one big run a game to the opposition. Outside of the win versus Texas Tech, the Longhorns plateaued to finish the season instead of playing their best basketball.
Simply put, Smart must be much, much better next season. Any questions about whether or not this is going to work at Texas are fair, and they’re the questions Smart is going to need to answer with next year’s team. No excuses.
2) The roster
Let’s also be honest about another thing that became clear when games started happening: the Texas roster wasn’t strong.
Texas had three seniors, and if Earth is the NBA radar, those three are on the Moon. Making the NBA is hard, and playing professionally overseas isn’t a guarantee either. What hoops fans miss on most often in discussing teams is the importance of good, veteran players. Kansas has them. Villanova has them. North Carolina has them. Duke has them. UCLA has them. Michigan State had a very young, but talented team this year and shouldn’t have made the tournament. Kentucky, the only team that truly does the all one-and-done method, even has two seniors that are valuable.
Coaches win in college basketball by signing and developing talented, three to four-year college players and adding in elite freshmen when the opportunity arises. It’s the method Bill Self, Izzo, Roy Williams, Coach K, and others have mastered. Coaches establish a culture, recruit, develop, and it turns into a cycle. Some seasons are better than others, but a nucleus of good, four-year players makes seasons like 11-22 almost impossible.
The Longhorns had an adequate, role-playing big in Shaquille Cleare, who could score on offense but was often a mismatch on defense. Mareik Isom was never truly healthy, and even then wouldn’t have been a player that would routinely start or provide significant impact over 25 minutes. Kendal Yancy would have been a nice, complimentary bench piece on good team when he dedicated himself to playing with maximum effort. A starter in the Big 12? No.
Texas had no active juniors, finished the year with two sophomores that couldn’t shoulder the load, and its two five-star freshmen were its two best players while the other two showed they were, as expected when they signed, four-year college players.
Texas and Oklahoma were the only teams in the Big 12 that didn’t start at least two juniors or seniors, and many teams started at least three juniors or seniors. It’s not a coincidence that Texas and Oklahoma also finished at the bottom of the toughest league in college hoops.
Over time, the six freshmen and sophomores that made up the roster to end the season will show more and more of their talent. That time, besides Allen and flashes of Jones, wasn’t this season.
3) Lack of leadership
Like clockwork, Texas would often watch other teams go on something like a 10-0 run out of a timeout, and from there would either trade buckets the rest of the way or almost accept defeat. No one on the roster was able and/or willing to figuratively grab the team by the neck and put an end to those runs. So, the runs happened over and over and over again.
Smart is trying to create a culture that is defined my maximum effort, confidence, and aggression. Clearly, that didn’t happen this season. It better happen next season.
Ideally, Smart’s program fosters player leadership that grabs the bull by the horns. Behind the scenes and publicly from the mouths of players, people were almost amazed at how positive Smart was with his team, refusing to let the disastrous season affect his energy and the way he tried to motivate players and develop the team. Although everyone was ready to turn the page, they weren’t completely broken, which is kind of surprising.
However, the program lacked players to set the leadership tone, and Smart and his staff should have been more proactive in that regard. It’s one thing to acknowledge the makeup of your team; it’s another thing for a coach to acknowledge that, then try to implement aggressive methods to counteract it.
Maybe over time in the grand scheme this season will prove to be one that sparks the player-led leadership and mindset Texas wants to infect its program. But in a vacuum of an individual season, Texas was like a dish the chef knew needed salt only to avoid adding enough.
4) The point guard situation
Ask yourself this: Would you rather have Andrew Jones and Matt Coleman for multiple seasons, or an average point guard this season and the legitimate possibility of no Jones or Coleman at all?
If Texas had just a decent, true point guard, what would the ceiling of 2017 be? 17 wins? Bubble? NIT? Over time, it became clear there was more to a disappointing 2017 than a point guard. Quality graduate transfer point guards don’t grow on trees, and selling a transfer point guard on Isaiah Taylor leaving after his junior season, immediately after that coach was hired, isn’t as easy as it sounds.
That being said, Texas’ production at that position wasn’t acceptable, and the coaching staff should have done a better job getting more out of Kerwin Roach, Jr. and should have featured Andrew Jones’ passing and vision more.
5) Tevin Mack and injuries
Isom being healthy all year could have made a key difference in three areas: on-court intelligence, a semblance of perimeter shooter, and lineup versatility. The truth about his ankle is that it’s probably still not fully healed even today, and how it bounced back after games was inconsistent. Now, Isom wasn’t the difference between a few wins and losses, but in a season desperate for anything it could find, he could have helped, which we saw in flashes to end the season.
As for Mack, on one hand he was the first guy the new staff signed to Texas, so booting him from the team two years into the program is on them. On the other hand, his skills and on-court production were starting to develop like planned, and when he was suspended January 12th, Texas lost its best scorer at the time, a perimeter shooter, and its only true wing that allowed it to play with small lineups. Plus, he had chances and plenty of time to get his act in order, and he didn't. That's on him.
Mack was really, really progressing on the floor, but his behavior off of it presented Smart with a tough decision: sacrifice culture for production? From what I heard, Mack, who made no reference to an apology in his statement he tweeted out after Smart announced he would be released, didn’t take the time to apologize to his teammates.
6) Shooting
Want to know something scary?
When you subtract Mack’s three-point makes and attempts from the season total, Texas shot 27.6 percent from three as a team.
Eric Davis’ sophomore slump is mystifying, especially considering a sizable portion of his perimeter misses in Big 12 play were quality looks. He’s proven before he can make that shot at a high clip, and Texas desperately needs him to next season.
But Jacob Young was brought in to be a sniper from the perimeter that eventually evolved into a solid guard in time. He attempted 110 threes and shot a putrid 22.7 percent. Smart maintains that Young will be a good college player when he develops. We’ll see. The Longhorns need Young to become a much better perimeter shooter immediately, and the concerning aspect is Young is more of a volume three-point shooter – a player that needs a few to find his stroke and rhythm – rather than a spot-up, knockdown shooter, like Iowa State’s Matt Thomas. When Young took his time, used his legs, and followed through in rhythm, the ball looked good. But too often he’d rush throw threes off-balanced and just fling them to shoot them.
The future roster should generate better looks from deep at a much higher rate, and limit those late-clock, forced three-pointers. However, it’s not a guarantee that Texas is significantly better from beyond the arc next season. Incoming guard Jase Febres will help.
7) The schedule
Texas’ schedule, according to KenPom.com, finished No. 3 toughest nationally. Once the calendar turned to December 30th, the Longhorns played 18 top 50 teams to end the season, which accounted for 86-percent of its schedule from that point. Texas played just six games against teams ranked outside the top 100, didn't play a 100+ team after December 30th, and faced 10 top 20 teams.
The following high-major programs were ranked behind Texas in overall efficiency, meaning if the two teams met on a neutral floor tomorrow, Texas would likely be the favorite, a pick ‘em, or a one or two-point underdog despite the abysmal record:
Mississippi (21-13), BYU (22-11), Pittsburgh (16-17), San Diego State (19-14), Auburn (18-14), Mississippi State (16-16), Memphis (19-13), and more.
Texas’ roster deficiencies and coaching performance were magnified by arguably the nation’s hardest schedule, which included 17 games against NCAA Tournament teams, and six games against NIT teams. Unlike most years, there was no break in the Big 12 schedule. Every team on Texas' schedule was ranked 66th or better, including 8 in the top 50 and five in the top 30.
Texas went 4-8 in games decided by four points or less, and of those 12 games 10 came against top 50 teams.
8) Development
Jarrett Allen, James Banks, Andrew Jones, and Shaq Cleare all improved. The rest? Not so much, most notably Davis and Roach. During the 2015-16 season, Smart and his staff did a terrific job of individual development. This season it was good in places and bad in others.
SO, WHAT HAPPENS NOW…
1) A lot of reflection, analyzation, and dissection to ensure that Texas is on the right path, and can win immediately next season to spark a continuous streak of solid basketball in the years forward.
Whatever Smart believes needs to be done to accelerate the establishment of culture, development of players, roster construction, and ability on the floor next season, it needs to be done. The Texas head coach stated multiple times in the past he will fully evaluate every aspect of his program to change anything that needs to be changed.
2) After some time to hit the reset button, Texas needs a ringleader to get the team into the gym and grind with the type of effort and mindset that improves skill. I think that guy is Dylan Osetkowski.
3) Texas waits on Jarrett Allen to decide if he’ll return to school, or turn professional. At this point, nothing has changed. No one seems to know which way the future decision is likely heading, and the common thought seems to be 50-50.
Allen said he’ll talk to his family and do what’s best for his future. He can either bet on himself to come off the board between 15-30 in the draft, or come back for another season, get even better touches, a full offseason, and bet on himself to be selected between 5-15.
4) The Longhorns will turn up the intensity in recruiting. They need a wing, and they’ll bring one in this weekend for a visit in the form of super-athletic, 6-5 Lakeview Centennial senior Zhaire Smith. Obviously, they’re still pursuing five-star big man Mohamed Bamba as much as anyone and are firmly in the hunt there. Plus, 6-4 combo guard Mark Smith, who I think is a future star the more I see and hear about him, is on Texas’ radar as well. Don’t be surprised if Texas gets him on campus for a visit soon.
As the potential transfer list builds, the Longhorns will do their homework and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they heavily pursue a transfer or two as well. Plus, there will be top recruits released from their LOIs now that the coaching carousel has begun to spin.
LOOKING AHEAD…
1) Will point guard be handled better next season?
Yes. Matt Coleman represents everything Texas needs at that position, should provide an immediate vocal presence too, and will be in the program multiple seasons. He’s arguably the best true point guard in the country, and his shooting and handling continue to progress.
Coleman is a perfect complement to players like Jones, Roach, and Davis.
Personally, I think Coleman is going to change the Texas basketball program. He’s the kind of competitor, player, and has the personality to bring the best out of teammates and coaches.
Now, is he the answer to all Texas’ problems? No. And he’ll have his freshmen bumps in the road too. But there’s no reason why he can’t make a similar impact to what freshmen point guards like Anthony Cowan (Maryland), Payton Pritchard (Oregon), Cassius Winston (Michigan State) did for their respective programs.
2) Will the roster be more experienced?
Well, I’m not it’s possible for it not to be considering the minutes Texas’ seniors played this year. The Longhorns will have three juniors, three or four sophomores (depending on Allen), four to six freshmen (depending on recruiting), and the possibility to add a transfer (either regular or graduate).
3) Will the roster be more versatile and athletic?
The biggest difference, besides a true point guard, between the 2016-17 Texas roster and the 2017-18 version will be its versatility and athleticism.
Osetkowski, who would have pushed Allen as the best player on the team this season, is a true inside-outside presence at the four that can shoot, pass, dribble, rebound and score. Texas signees Royce Hamm and Jericho Sims are combo forwards that will eventually be able to make plays from the perimeter. Sims, who is 6-9 with a ridiculous 7-9 wingspan, can jump out of the gym and has underrated skill (he played shooting guard and point guard his previous seasons in high school prior to senior campaign). Hamm is more of a pick-and-pop player similar to a Connor Lammert-type, but with more bounce and athleticism. Both players will need time, but both can make plays inside and outside.
If Texas can add a wing or another taller guard to play wing, the possible lineup constructions change dramatically as do what Texas can do schematically, which would possibly include using more full-court, aggressive defenses because of increased depth, athleticism, and length.
4) Will the roster be more talented?
Yes, but Texas desperately needs Allen to stay, Bamba to pick Texas, or both. If someone wanted to attempt to convince me Sims has five-star ceiling, I’d buy it, but he’s not polished enough to come in and feature immediately. James Banks is going to be a good player in time, but he’s more defense than offense right now and is still learning the game.
Allen would be a perfect complement to Osetkowski in the frontcourt because Osetkowski could facilitate offense from the perimeter, inside when Allen steps out, or at the elbows. Throw in a true point guard, talented guards in natural spots off the ball, and an Allen-led roster would feature a really solid seven to eight-man rotation, followed by the young depth to provide energy and spark when needed.
If he doesn’t return and Texas misses on Bamba, the roster would still be better in terms of construction, talent, depth, athleticism, and versatility. However, it would be a stretch to look at it and think it would compete for a Big 12 title. Of course, hitting a home run in the form of a graduate transfer would help, but most graduate transfers are graduate transfers for a reason.
5) Will Texas be better next season?
It better be or the questions following this season will only intensify.
ONE FINAL THOUGHT…
Smart has routinely stated he knew when he took the Texas job the second year was going to be especially tough before all the roster turnover. I know he, duh, wanted to win every game this season; despite the always positive vibes he gives up publicly, he’s a very intense competitor away from the public eye. I think Texas knew it would probably have to deal with a rough ride this season in order to make sure the future wasn’t sacrificed.
Remember in the 2004 ALCS when Tim Wakefield had to wear it for his team in game three? The Yankees jumped all over Boston starter Bronson Arroyo early, and were up 13-6 after five. They eventually won 19-8, to take a 3-0 lead. Wakefield, even though he was getting drilled, threw 3.1 innings that game to save Boston's bullpen. He was a human white flag for a city and team that hadn't won a ring since 1918, and was on the verge of being knocked out again by the arch rivals. Because he was okay in that role, Francona didn't have to sacrifice his chances to pull off the miraculous four-game comeback by using other bullpen arms. After that game, Boston had to win four games in four days, and did.
We could look back at 2016-17 as a necessary evil for Texas Basketball to get back to consistently winning games at a high level. Or we might not, and view it instead as a danger sign for struggles ahead. We’ll see. That’s for Smart to answer with his 2017-18 team, and with a roster that will be made up of his guys almost entirely.
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