In my never-ending quest to turn the Pseudoscience of college football recruiting into something a little more scientific, today we're going to look at the value of elite wide receiver prospects from the Lone Star State.
Specifically, we're going to look at the five-star prospects, high four stars (6.0) and mid-four stars from the state of Texas in the 2002-2015 classes that have completed their eligibility.
A few data points to know ...
1. On the average, a five-star ranked player has somewhere between a 45-70 percent chance of being drafted by an NFL team, depending on the year. A five-star ranked player is also 10X more likely to be drafted in the first round than a four-star prospect and between 2-3 times more likely to be drafted at all than four stars.
2. On the average, a high four-star ranked player typically has somewhere between a 35-50 percent chance of being drafted by an NFL team, depending on the year. A high four-star ranked player is also 10X more likely to be drafted in the first round than a three-star prospect and twice as likely to be drafted at all over a mid four-star prospect.
Let's look at the five-stars.
2004 - Lance Leggett (Miami)
2007 - Terrance Toliver (LSU)
2011 - Trey Metoyer (Oklahoma)
Breakdown
* 0 of the 3 players (0.0%) were drafted by NFL teams.
* 0 of the 3 players (0.0%) played on Sundays in the NFL.
* While there were only three five-star wide receiver prospects in the history of Rivals from 2002-17, there have been a flood of five-star rankings in the last few classes: Alabama's Jaylen Waddle (2018, Oklahoma's Theo Wease (2019) and Trejan Bridges (2019), Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba (2020) and Texas A&M's Demond Demas (2020)
Now let's look at the high four stars:
2005 - Malcolm Kelly (Oklahoma)
2006 - Adron Tennell (Oklahoma)
2007 - Dez Bryant (Oklahoma State)
2008 - Jeff Fuller (Texas A&M)
2008 - Darryl Stonum (Michigan)
2010 - Mike Davis (Texas)
2010 - Darius White (Texas)
2012 - Thomas Johnson (Texas A&M)
2012 - Cayleb Jones (Texas)
2013 - Derrick Griffin (Miami)
2013 - Robbie Rhodes (Baylor)
2014 - K.D. Cannon (Baylor)
2015 - Demarkus Lodge (Mississippi)
2016 - Devin Duvernay (Texas)
2017 - CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma)
Breakdown
* 4 of the 15 players (26.7%) were drafted by NFL teams: Kelly (2nd round), Bryant (1st round) Duvernay (3rd round) and Lamb (1st)
* A few other names on the list played on a few NFL practice squads, but none ever played a snap in the NFL It should be noted that guys like Fuller, Cannon, Davis and Jones were solid to above average college players.
* UT's Breenan Eagles (2018) and Ohio State's Garrett Wilson (2019) are the only two active players from this tier.
Mid Four Stars
2004 - Myron Hardy (Texas)
2007 - Malcolm Williams (Texas)
2008 - Dan Buckner (Texas)
2008 - Omarius Hines (Florida)
2009 - Greg Timmons (Texas)
2010 - DeAndrew White (Alabama)
2010 - Ross Apo (BYU)
2010 - Chris Jones (Texas)
2011 - Jaxon Shipley (Texas)
2013 - Jake Oliver (Texas)
2015 - Carlos Strickland (California)
2016 - Tyrie Cleveland (Florida)
Breakdown
* 1 of the 12 players (8.3%) were drafted by NFL teams.
* 2 of the 12 players (16.7%) played on Sundays in the NFL
Low Four Stars
2004 - Lendy Holmes (Oklahoma)
2004 - George Walker (Texas)
2004 - Jordan Shipley (Texas)
2005 - Howard Morrow (Texas A&M)
2005 - David Nelson (Florida)
2006 - Phillip Payne (Texas)
2006 - Montre Webber (Texas)
2007 - Brandon Collins (Texas)
2007 - James Kirkendoll (Texas)
2008 - D.J. Grant (Texas)
2008 - Sedrick Johnson (Iowa State)
2009 - Eric Ward (Texas Tech)
2009 - Uzoma Nwachakwu (Texas A&M)
2009 - Emory Blake (Auburn)
2010 - Terrell Reese (Utah)
2010 - John Harris (Texas)
2010 - Darius Terrell (Texas)
2011 - Derek Edwards (Texas Texas)
2011 - Ty Montgomery (Stanford)
2011 - Kameel Jackson (Oklahoma)
2012 - Corey Coleman (Baylor)
2012 - Dominque Wheeler (Texas Tech)
2012 - Bralon Addison (Michigan)
2012 - Reginald Davis (Texas Tech)
2013 - Kyrion Parker (Texas A&M)
2013 - Tori Hunter Jr. (Notre Dame)
2013 - Jacorey Warrick (Texas)
2013 - Corey Robinson (Notre Dame)
2013 - Eldridge Massington (UCLA)
2013 - Ra'Shaad Samples (Oklahoma State)
2013 - Marcell Ateman (Oklahoma State)
2013 - Devin Lauderdale (Texas Tech)
2013 - Fred Ross (Mississippi State)
2013 - Quincy Abeboyejo (Mississippi)
2014 - Lorenzo Joe (Texas)
2014 - Armanti Foreman (Texas)
2014 - Keenan Brown (Oklahoma State)
2014 - Frank Iheanacho (Texas A&M)
2015 - J.F. Thomas (Texas A&M)
2015 - Blake Lynch (Baylor)
Breakdown
* 4 of the 40 players (10.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: Shipley (3rd round), Montgomery (3rd round), Coleman (1st round) and Ateman (7th round)
* 5 of the 40 players (12.5%) were drafted by NFL teams.
Measured Against Other Positions
Here are how the quarterbacks from the state of Texas compare against their in-state peers at other positions.
85.7% of five-star defensive tackles were drafted by NFL teams
83.3% of five-star quarterbacks were drafted by NFL teams
50.0% of five-star defensive ends were drafted by NFL teams
44.4% of five-star running backs were drafted by NFL teams
50.0% of five-star linebackers were drafted by NFL teams
22.2% of five-star offensive linemen were drafted by NFL teams
0.0% of five-star wide receivers were drafted by NFL teams
50.0% of high four-star running backs were drafted by NFL teams
40.0% of high four-star quarterbacks were drafted by NFL teams
35.7% of high four-star offensive linemen were drafted by NFL teams
33.3% of high four--star defensive tackles were drafted by NFL teams
33.3% of high four--star defensive ends were drafted by NFL teams
26.7% of high four-star wide receivers were drafted by NFL teams
0.0% of high four-star linebackers were drafted by NFL teams
28.6% of mid four-star defensive ends were drafted by NFL teams
25.0% of mid four-star quarterbacks were drafted by NFL teams
16.7% of mid four-star running backs were drafted by NFL teams
9.1% of mid four-star linebackers were drafted by NFL teams
8.3% of mid four-star wide receivers were drafted by NFL teams
6.7% of mid four-star offensive linemen were drafted by NFL teams
0.0% of mid four--star defensive tackles were drafted by NFL teams
100% of five-star quarterbacks played in the NFL
85.7% of five-star defensive tackles played in the NFL
66.7% of five-star running backs played in the NFL
66.7% of five-star defensive ends played in the NFL
50.0% of five-star linebackers played in the NFL
22.2% of five-star offensive linemen played in the NFL
0.0% of five-star wide receiver played in the NFL
60.0% of high four-star running backs played in the NFL.
40.0% of high four-star quarterbacks played in the NFL
35.7% of high four-star offensive linemen played in the NFL.
33.3% of high four-star defensive tackles played in the NFL
33.3% of high four-star defensive ends played in the NFL
26.7% of high four-star wide receivers played in the NFL.
0.0% of high four-star linebackers played in the NFL.
42.9% of mid four-star defensive ends played in the NFL
25.0% of mid four-star quarterbacks played in the NFL
16.7% of mid four-star linebackers played in the NFL.
16.7% of mid four-star running backs played in the NFL.
13.3% of mid four-star offensive linemen played in the NFL.
12.5% of mid four-star wide receivers played in the NFL.
0.0% of mid four-star defensive tackles played in the NFL
Overall Breakdown
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