It's everyone's favorite time of the year... the weekend when we celebrate Hollywood! Yeah, baby!
Here's a look at the main categories with my personal rankings, predictions and overall thoughts on the movies that were nominated in the major categories (Yes, I have seen them all).
Feel free to use this info for gambling purposes.
Best Animated Film
(My Rankings)
1. Turning Red
2. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
5. The Sea Beast
Prediction: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Quick thoughts: This one feels like it should be Turning Red all day long, but the Academy is almost certainly going to reward one of its favorite sons - Guillermo del Toro. There's no question that del Toro has the most technically spectacular film among this five, but Turning Red was easily the best and most re-watchable of the five. I'm pretty sure I'll never watch this version of Pinocchio ever again.
Best Supporting Actress
(My Rankings)
1. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
2. Stephanie Hsu (Everything, Everywhere All at Once)
3. Hong Chau (The Whale)
4. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
5. Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything, Everywhere All at Once)
Prediction: Jamie Lee Curtis
Quick thoughts: This is probably the biggest question mark of the night with the major categories. The latest odds have Bassett as the favorite (+130), while Curtis (+165) and Condon (+175) are just behind her. I'm a little surprised that Bassett is listed as the betting favorite because Curtis seems to have momentum, while riding the EEAAO wave. Personally, I thought Curtis was the second best supporting actress in her own movie. If it was my call, I'd give it to Condon.
Best Supporting Actor
(My Rankings)
1. Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
2. Ke Huy Quan (Everything, Everywhere All at Once)
3. Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
4. Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
5. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Prediction: Huy Quan
Quick thoughts: No one has more momentum at the moment than Huy Quan, who is listed at +2000 coming into the event.
Best Actress
(My Rankings)
1. Care Blanchett (Tar)
2. Michelle Yeoh (Everything, Everywhere All at Once)
3. Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
4. Ana De Armas (Blonde)
5. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Prediction: Blanchett
Quick thoughts: Let's keep it real. Blanchett should be running away with this because she gave the single best acting performance of the year, regardless of category. A case can be made that this is one of the best performances of the century. She comes in as an underdog (+125), while Yeoh is the betting favorite (-180). This is my confirmation bias clicking in, but I think over 10,000 ballots, the older portion of the voting block will go for the actress of this generation (Streep is the last generation).
Best Actor
(My Rankings)
1. Collin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
2. Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
3. Austin Butler (Elvis)
4. Bill Nighy (Living)
5. Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Prediction: Butler
Quick thoughts: This has turned into a Butler (+105)/Fraser (-160) showdown and if it's a battle between those two, Fraser is the rightful winner. Yet, I think Butler is going to take it after watching him take home the award at the BAFTA, Golden Globe and Hollywood Critics.
Best Director
(My Rankings)
1. Todd Field (Tar)
2. Daniel Kwan, Daniel Schreinert (Everything, Everywhere All at Once)
3. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
4. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
5. Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness)
Prediction: Kwan and Schreinert
Quick thoughts: Let the EEAAO wave continue! The Dans have pretty much swept the award circuit the last few months and they are a -1800 favorite coming into Sunday night.
Best Movie
(My Rankings)
1. Tar
2. Everything, Everywhere All at Once
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Avatar: The Way of Water
6. Triangle of Sadness
7. The Fabelmans
8. All Quiet on the Western Front
9. Women Talking
10. Elvis
Prediction: Everything, Everywhere All Ay Once
Quick thoughts: EEAAO has won everything, everywhere throughout the award season. It is a -700 favorite coming in and I'm not sure there's a clear cut runner-up, which is why the second favorite (Banshees) is +1100. Tar is the best film of the year, but it doesn't have a chance. The only way EEAAO loses is if all of the old people in the voting block torpedo it with low votes in a 1-10 ranking. The data shows that old people don't like this movir very much or they didn't get it. Even that shouldn't be enough.
Here's a look at the main categories with my personal rankings, predictions and overall thoughts on the movies that were nominated in the major categories (Yes, I have seen them all).
Feel free to use this info for gambling purposes.
Best Animated Film
(My Rankings)
1. Turning Red
2. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
5. The Sea Beast
Prediction: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Quick thoughts: This one feels like it should be Turning Red all day long, but the Academy is almost certainly going to reward one of its favorite sons - Guillermo del Toro. There's no question that del Toro has the most technically spectacular film among this five, but Turning Red was easily the best and most re-watchable of the five. I'm pretty sure I'll never watch this version of Pinocchio ever again.
Best Supporting Actress
(My Rankings)
1. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
2. Stephanie Hsu (Everything, Everywhere All at Once)
3. Hong Chau (The Whale)
4. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
5. Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything, Everywhere All at Once)
Prediction: Jamie Lee Curtis
Quick thoughts: This is probably the biggest question mark of the night with the major categories. The latest odds have Bassett as the favorite (+130), while Curtis (+165) and Condon (+175) are just behind her. I'm a little surprised that Bassett is listed as the betting favorite because Curtis seems to have momentum, while riding the EEAAO wave. Personally, I thought Curtis was the second best supporting actress in her own movie. If it was my call, I'd give it to Condon.
Best Supporting Actor
(My Rankings)
1. Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
2. Ke Huy Quan (Everything, Everywhere All at Once)
3. Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
4. Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
5. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Prediction: Huy Quan
Quick thoughts: No one has more momentum at the moment than Huy Quan, who is listed at +2000 coming into the event.
Best Actress
(My Rankings)
1. Care Blanchett (Tar)
2. Michelle Yeoh (Everything, Everywhere All at Once)
3. Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
4. Ana De Armas (Blonde)
5. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Prediction: Blanchett
Quick thoughts: Let's keep it real. Blanchett should be running away with this because she gave the single best acting performance of the year, regardless of category. A case can be made that this is one of the best performances of the century. She comes in as an underdog (+125), while Yeoh is the betting favorite (-180). This is my confirmation bias clicking in, but I think over 10,000 ballots, the older portion of the voting block will go for the actress of this generation (Streep is the last generation).
Best Actor
(My Rankings)
1. Collin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
2. Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
3. Austin Butler (Elvis)
4. Bill Nighy (Living)
5. Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Prediction: Butler
Quick thoughts: This has turned into a Butler (+105)/Fraser (-160) showdown and if it's a battle between those two, Fraser is the rightful winner. Yet, I think Butler is going to take it after watching him take home the award at the BAFTA, Golden Globe and Hollywood Critics.
Best Director
(My Rankings)
1. Todd Field (Tar)
2. Daniel Kwan, Daniel Schreinert (Everything, Everywhere All at Once)
3. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
4. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
5. Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness)
Prediction: Kwan and Schreinert
Quick thoughts: Let the EEAAO wave continue! The Dans have pretty much swept the award circuit the last few months and they are a -1800 favorite coming into Sunday night.
Best Movie
(My Rankings)
1. Tar
2. Everything, Everywhere All at Once
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Avatar: The Way of Water
6. Triangle of Sadness
7. The Fabelmans
8. All Quiet on the Western Front
9. Women Talking
10. Elvis
Prediction: Everything, Everywhere All Ay Once
Quick thoughts: EEAAO has won everything, everywhere throughout the award season. It is a -700 favorite coming in and I'm not sure there's a clear cut runner-up, which is why the second favorite (Banshees) is +1100. Tar is the best film of the year, but it doesn't have a chance. The only way EEAAO loses is if all of the old people in the voting block torpedo it with low votes in a 1-10 ranking. The data shows that old people don't like this movir very much or they didn't get it. Even that shouldn't be enough.
