Playoff Picture

Discussion in 'Longhorn Sports' started by FlourBluffHorn, Nov 6, 2018.

  1. FlourBluffHorn

    FlourBluffHorn Well-Known Member
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    USA Today

    There is a six-pack of Power Five teams left with a single loss – Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Washington State and West Virginia. The College Football Playoff Selection Committee will have tough decisions to make when slotting these one-loss teams.

    Georgia and Michigan look like the best of this group if we're going by the eye test and both of their losses have come to teams ranked in the top four of last week's poll (LSU and Notre Dame) in true road games. Oklahoma and West Virginia have both lost to teams ranked in the Top 25 (Texas and Iowa State) but only West Virginia's came in a true road game. Oklahoma's three-point loss to Texas was at a neutral site. West Virginia and Oklahoma will sort themselves out in a matchup in three weeks.

    Ohio State's loss on the road to currently unranked Purdue wasn't pretty but the Boilermakers appear to be better than its record indicates.

    That leaves Washington State. The Pac-12 has been wild this year and it seems like any team can win on any given day. That being said, Washington State has been the most consistent team, but its three-point loss to an unranked USC is the worst loss that any of these one-loss teams have taken. Washington State has a quality strength of schedule ranking but it's hard to see enough good wins that will boost the Cougars to the top of this group.

    There are only four spots in the College Football Playoff and, unless Notre Dame stumbles down the stretch, at least two of the Power Five conferences won't be competing for the top prize in college football. The winners of the SEC and ACC championship games will most likely be Alabama and Clemson and they will make the final top four in the rankings. That leaves the Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-12 battling for the final spot.

    In the Big 12, there could be bedlam if Oklahoma takes a loss from Oklahoma State this coming weekend. See what I did there? Running through all the scenarios will make your head spin but it boils down to this: If West Virginia or Oklahoma wins out, either would have a very legitimate claim and resume to gain that fourth spot.

    In the Big Ten, if Michigan wins out it'll likely be in the playoff. It gets a little more complicated if Ohio State wins out. The Buckeyes will have a very strong resume if they beat Michigan this year but they will need Purdue and Penn State to be ranked after Championship Weekend for their resume to be unquestionably better than that of Washington State. On top of that, they'll need Oklahoma to lose prior so the Big 12 champion, presumably West Virginia in this case, won't have a better resume.

    The Pac-12 could be the longest shot. It needs Washington State to win out, and get some help in other conferences.

    Very few things are "no-brainers" in college football but there is no doubt Alabama and Clemson are the two best teams in the country right now. Alabama just used LSU's impressive defense as a punching bag and Heisman frontrunner

    Tua Tagovailoa
    threw two touchdowns and nearly 300 yards against a secondary that features four future NFL players. Ed Orgeron's offense hasn't been anything to write home about but it has played well this season. That is, until Alabama just shut them out in Death Valley, ending any hope that LSU had that this offense was different than previous years.
    The Crimson Tide are, deserve to be and will continue to be the top-ranked team in the College Football Playoff Rankings. But is Clemson closing the gap? Both teams have played the same number of teams that are currently ranked and the statistical similarities are staggering. Clemson averages about 30 fewer yards per game, Clemson averages about four fewer points per game but both teams have scored the same number of offensive touchdowns. Clemson gives up about 25 fewer yards per game than Alabama and both teams give up virtually the same amount of points per game.

    This question could be argued endlessly but fans are enjoying watching each week as both teams try to one-up the other. Well, the fans of teams they play each week don't seem to be enjoying it much.

    The Knights are one of four undefeated teams remaining and are riding a 21-game winning streak so what will it take for the College Football Playoff Selection Committee to put them within shouting distance of the top four?

    McKenzie Milton
    is in the top 20 of passing efficiency and has UCF near the top of the total offense rankings. Defensively, UCF is ranked second in the nation in turnover margin and in the top 25 in scoring defense.
    The biggest argument against UCF is its weak schedule but it is one of five teams averaging 45 points or more and also is outscoring its opponents by at least 20 points. The fact that the Knights are really dominating the teams they are supposed to dominate should carry at least some weight with the selection committee.


    Hook'em
     
  2. westx

    westx Well-Known Member
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    Top 8 AP are: Remaining challenges
    1. Bama 9-0 Georgia-SEC champ game
    2. Clemson 9-0 nobody
    3. Notre Dame 9-0 (USC-kind of)
    4. Michigan 8-1 tOSU & Big 10 champ game
    5. Georgia 8-1 bama- SEC champ game
    6. blowu 8-1 okie lite (kind of-inferior complex makes them know they have to lose),WV,Big12 champ game
    7. WV 7-1 okie lite and blowu back to back, Big 12 champ game
    8. tOSU 8-1 Mich St, Mich, Big 10 champ game

    Things look good to win out for the top 4. Bama with an undefeated record, Clemson with an undefeated record, ND with an undefeated record, and I believe Michigan will win out (wins have been solid). I can't decide, but, blowu and WV are neck and neck for the 5th spot because I think one of them will win out, Georgia in 6th spot with 2 losses.
     
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  3. FlourBluffHorn

    FlourBluffHorn Well-Known Member
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    WSU should be at 4 or 5



    Hook'em
     
  4. mm42

    mm42 Well-Known Member
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    It won't happen, but if Georgia somehow beats Alabama and Michigan wins out, it will get crazy. That is what I am hoping happens, as unlikely as it seems that anyone beats Alabama.

    Clemson and ND would be in. But how you shake out Alabama, Georgia, and Michigan of they all have one loss would be glorious.
     
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  5. Scholz

    Scholz Well-Known Member
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    There are 6 1-loss teams vying for that 4th spot. I'm just surprised we haven't seen $ooner fans yet write their "we're the most deserving to backdoor in" manifesto that happens most years.
     
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  6. DHHorn

    DHHorn Well-Known Member
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    Alabama would get in.
     
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  7. q1w2e3

    q1w2e3 Well-Known Member
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    Easy. If those are the only 3 being considered assuming neither OU/WVU won out:
    1. Michigan
    2. Georgia
    3. Alabama
     
  8. westx

    westx Well-Known Member
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    Gooners love the backdoor
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  9. LonghornMM

    LonghornMM Moderator
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    Even if Ohio State wins out, they shouldn't be considered. The blow out loss to Purdue was a really bad loss. Purdue is not a good team and that should kill their chances right there. However things play out, let's hope that there are never two teams from the $EC in the CFP again. No one wants to see that, or two teams from any conference for that matter.
     
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  10. mm42

    mm42 Well-Known Member
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    Not easy. I was assuming either OU or WVU won out. Didn't think either got in under this scenario. My guess would be Alabama and... not sure between Michigan and Georgia.
     
  11. clob94

    clob94 Well-Known Member
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    Lol that you think georgia has a China man's chance in hell of beating bama.
     
  12. FlourBluffHorn

    FlourBluffHorn Well-Known Member
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    WSU could beat WV and Michigan..


    Hook'em
     
  13. mm42

    mm42 Well-Known Member
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    Georgia has as good a chance to beat Bama as anyone that will make the playoffs. If you assume Georgia has zero chance, you might as well cancel the playoffs. The more I think of it, Alabama is ruining college football. Too good.
     
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  14. mm42

    mm42 Well-Known Member
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    This subject came up on game day. The question was what if Clemson, ND, & Michigan won out. And Georgia beat Bama.

    Sounded like they think Clemson & Michigan would be in. The final 2 spots was hotly debated between Alabama, Georgia, and Notre Dame.

    It was interesting that some people wanted the best teams in and others the most deserving. In this case that would probably be the deciding factor in letting Bama or ND in.

    No mention of WVU or OU. Sounds like anyone outside those top 5 needs a lot of help.
     
  15. q1w2e3

    q1w2e3 Well-Known Member
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    Again, in that scenario if Alabama loses the last game of their season head to head against Georgia they should not get in over Georgia. That would just be silly. I can't believe people would serious think that. Alabama has looked fantastic pulverizing a bunch of teams without a pulse. They also have one single quality win in the LSU game. If they play a two game season and can't win the second, they shouldn't be in over Georgia.

    Plus, if OU or WVU actually wins out the conversation will change by the time it's actually decision time.

    And what is the point of a committee and all the hoopla of analyzing a season week after week if at the end they just put in who they subjectively feel are the "best" teams?
     
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  16. Belldozer1

    Belldozer1 Well-Known Member
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    I’m not so sure LSU should have still been in top10 after their loss. Sure it was to Alabama but they got shut out at home.
     
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  17. Belldozer1

    Belldozer1 Well-Known Member
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    just wait, if OU wins out, we’d have a great chance. Assuming we win out, means Murray would be playing well, believe it or not I think that alone may carry some weight. Heisman contender etc. imo
     
  18. 2300 Nueces

    2300 Nueces Well-Known Member
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    The only way to knock bama off the perch is to open the wallet wider than they do..... which aggy is trying to do. Kudos to them.
     
    18 2300 Nueces, Nov 10, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2018
  19. Scholz

    Scholz Well-Known Member
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    Yes you deserve to back door your way in every year. It’s the $ooner way. Thanks for proving my point.

    And Murray won’t win lulz.
     
  20. Belldozer1

    Belldozer1 Well-Known Member
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    He may not but you have to admit he’s pretty much the whole package.
     

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