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Where do we stand with the big DT from Bellville and OT Lamont Rogers .
I don't hear much about either of these guys and both appear to be top 50 national type players.
You’re right that you don’t hear a ton about OL Lamont Rogers or DT D.J. Sanders, mostly because neither 2025 standout talks much at all. I’ve exchanged some DMs with Rogers, who has a strong liking for Texas, but he’s never really tipped his hand on much when it relates to his recruitment.
Rogers did take an unofficial visit to Texas back in March and to my knowledge, that’s the only college visit he’s taken this year. We’re forced to read between the line a bit with him, but that’s obviously a good sign for the Longhorns. I wouldn’t be shocked if he showed back up on campus again in late July for UT’s pool party but nothing is set up just yet.
Sanders may actually communicate less than Rogers. I’ve reached out to him a few times but haven’t heard a peep in response (note to self … find a source on Rogers). He is from the smallish town of Bellville, and it seems like more often than not, kids from those types of schools, in that part of the state, usually stay in-state. I’d expect Texas and Texas A&M to both be heavy participants in that race.
I’m not very smart on recruiting (or many things that don’t involve taking the skin off a wild anima) so help me understand the percentage of recruits who commit vs recruits who sign. Is there a staggering difference? Also, how has NIL affected these numbers?
Overwhelmingly, if a player commits to a school, he usually winds up signing with that same program. It’s a total guess on my part, but I’d estimate that more than 80 percent of recruits wind up signing with the school they originally commit to, and that may be a bit conservative.
Your question on NIL is a good one … it’s still a bit early to have much of a sample size, but I absolutely do think you’ll see more guys make late changes in their recruitments as NIL becomes a bigger factor.
Please give us your best shot as to commits to Texas between now and August 15 for the 2024 and 2025 classes.
I’d be surprised if we see many, if any from the 2025 class. Yes Texas did pick up a big QB commitment last weekend, but most of those guys are still a long way from making decisions.
As for guys from the 2024 class that I think Texas has a strong chance of landing prior to August 15, give me the following: RB Jerrick Gibson, WR Parker Livingstone, TE Jordan Washington and OL Daniel Cruz. There are so many others that are possibilities – guys like Alex January, Daniel Calhoun, Kobe Black, Nyier Daniels, Melvin Hills, Aeryn Hampton, Khmori House and Freddie Dubose – but the timing of their decisions are a bit more up in the air.
Besides the coaches informing recruits how they would be used and building rapport with them, what ways have you heard the coaches make an OV unique to the individual recruit?
For the most part, it’s a cookie-cutter approach to official visits. Things are of course tailored to each recruit’s personal taste, but it’s usually the same stuff … nice welcome gifts in the hotel room, sitting in meetings with their position coaches, academic tours, nice dinners, time with the current team members, breakfast at Sark’s house, etc.
On a weekend like last weekend, when Ryner Swanson was the only visitor in town, it’s much easier to personalize the visit. For instance, Swanson actually went to some thrift stores with his player host instead of doing the usual official visit lifestyle, and Texas took some time during the visit to connect him with some missionaries and YSA wards on campus.
Texas lands a momentum inducing recruit during or soon after their big recruiting weekend later this month. Yes or no?
I fully expect Texas to land a commitment (or a few). I’d guess that Jerrick Gibson is the closest thing to a momentum-inducing commitment but I’m not expecting a windfall of commits to follow him if he does choose UT in late June.
B/S Sark is just showing off by slow playing filling up this 2024 class. He is totally confident this team puts him in a position to reel in lots of “big fish” in December, or go get whatever he needs through the portal in early 2025.
I’m kind of in between on that one, but I’ll go with sell. I do believe that Sark and staff are very confident in the team’s performance and the recruiting bump the Longhorns will get in the fall. But I do not feel he’s purposely slow playing 2024 recruiting and telling guys not to commit. I promise you, Sark and everyone on staff wouldn’t mind having 10+ commitments from some of their top targets.
Regarding QB Lacey, I've read that his ranking is likely to rise from #66 and a four-star to a five-star as time goes by. What's the thinking there, and why not bump him now?
I haven’t heard that his ranking is likely to rise to five-star status … @Ketchum and I both have mentioned that we feel it’s a possibility if he continues to play well and back up his stellar sophomore season, but nothing is really “expected” in that it’s a given. Rivals already has him rated the highest out of the three major rankings services. Can he go up from there? Absolutely, and I expect he’ll continue to put up the stats to back up that thinking. Will he make it to five-star status? That’ll be pretty tough.
Does the QB verbal distance UT from other high school QBs that were/are leaning to us?
Nah. Texas already had its 2024 QB in Trey Owens and wasn’t going to take another in that class. The staff had extended only two QB offers in the 2025 class and there’s no way the Longhorns were going to land both KJ Lacey and Bryce Underwood. The question is whether or not it’ll impact 2026 QB Julian Lewis but it’s way too early to know how those dominoes will fall.
What are our odds on top 20 kids in Texas?
That’s a pretty broad ask. Let’s handle this one like this. I’ll categorize each guy in one of four groups … <25%, 26-50%, 51-75%, >75%.
Colin Simmons - 26-50%
Micah Hudson - 26-50%
Justin Williams - 26-50%
Kobe Black - 51-75%
DJ Lagway - <25%
Dre’lon Miller - <25%
Blake Frazier - <25%
Taylor Tatum - <25%
Xavier Atkins - <25%
Nigel Smith – 26-50%
Payton Pierce - <25%
Xavier Filsaime - <25%
Corian Gipson – 26-50%
Ka’Davion Dotson – 26-50%
James Peoples - <25%
Ashton Funk - <25%
Maurice Williams - <25%
Aeryn Hampton – 51-75%
Selman Bridges – 41-75%
Zion Kearney - <25%
True or false, Swanson committs before the 4th of July. T/F Lacey is locked in and like the tweet says, his receiver decommitts from Bama and follows him.
False on Swanson. I’m not sure he’ll decide by then unless he comes to a conclusion while in Europe, and I’m not convinced the choice will be Texas regardless.
True that Lacey is locked in … there will be some scary moments there but I don’t see any reason to think he’s anything less than completely happy with his decision. False that his receiver decommits and follows him … it’s possible but I think it’s more likely that the two go to separate schools.
Are commitments coming in slower than you anticipated considering that Texas has most of its recruiting eggs in the June basket?
I’d be lying if I said things weren’t a bit slower than I would have anticipated with Texas having only three commitments in the 2024 cycle. While it’s not ideal compared to so many other power programs that have had no issues reeling in a large number of pledges, I wouldn’t go jump off a cliff just yet. Texas showed last year that it can establish a lot of momentum in a hurry and I expect that to happen in June and July. If we’re in mid-July and the Longhorns are still sitting at a very low number of commitments, then it’ll be time to ring the alarm bell.
With KJ on board do the coaches stop recruiting the kid from Georgia that was supposed to all world in the 25 class
You’re thinking of Julian Lewis in the 2026 class. No way the coaches peel back on him though. He’s too good of a talent and Texas has already invested a lot of time in that one.
