With the release of the latest Rivals250 for the 2023 class on Tuesday, I thought I would dive into the rankings and provide some perspective to the list.
5 Stars
1. OL - T.J. Shanahan - Austin Westlake (10)
2. LB - Anthony Hill - Denton Ryan (11)
3. DE - David Hicks - Katy Paetow (13)
4. CB - Javien Toviano - Arlington Martin (20)
Initial Thoughts: I keep waiting for the wild amount of love that Rivals has for Shanahan to wear off... if even just a little. Not one time has it ever crossed my mind that he should be the No.1-ranked player in the entire state of Texas. Not once. Yet, there he is once again ranked in the top overall spot in the state by Rivals and within his entire position group. The other three guys are slam dunks and I'm in complete agreement with.
Underrated: In terms of positional value inside the state of Texas, virtually no position outperforms defensive ends with the physical profile that Hicks brings to the table.
Should Be In This Group: Johntay Cook narrowly missed earning a fifth star in this set of updated rankings, so it's probably a small nitpick, but I think he should be in this tier.
Bottom Line: I currently have the state with four 5-stars and so does Rivals. The only thing I would do is flip Shanahan with Cook.
High Four Stars
5. QB - Jackson Arnold - Denton Guyer (21)
6. RB - Reuben Owens - El Campo (22)
7. WR - Johntay Cook - Desoto (27)
8. CB - Jayvon Thomas - South Oak Cliff (31)
9. CB - Malik Muhammad - South Oak Cliff (34)
10. WR - Jalen Hale - Longview (35)
11. CB - Bravion Rogers - LaGrange (37)
12. S - Peyton Bowen - Denton Guyer (46)
13. DE - Braylan Shelby - Friendswood (47)
Initial Thoughts: It's pretty spotless as far as I'm concerned. Of the nine players that Rivals has ranked as high four stars, I have seven of them ranked exactly the same from a pure value standpoint. Meanwhile, the other two players that Rivals has ranked as high four stars, I have rated as my two highest mid-four stars and No.13 (Hale) and No.14 (Bowen), respectively.
Underrated: This is a small nitpick, but Shelby's positional value is so much higher than everyone else on the board outside of Arnold at quarterback that I would have him towards the top of this tier and not at the bottom.
Should Be In This Group: Ryan Niblett is a 10.4 guy in the 100 meters and has a gear that few guys across the country own. The high four-star tier should include guys with elite of the elite physical traits and not acknowledging the difference in top speed with him vs. the other elite receivers in the state is a mistake. Guys that run 10.41 in the 100, 21.25 in the 200 and long jump 23' 6.25 just don't grow on trees.
Bottom Line: Honestly, the only real bones to pick in the top two tiers is the inclusion of Shanahan in the top tier and the exclusion of Niblett in the second-tier. Other than that, we're very much on the same page.
Mid Four Stars
14. WR - Jaquaize Pettaway - Langham Creek (59)
15. QB - Austin Novosad - Dripping Springs (60)
16. WR - Jaden Greathouse - Austin Westlake (73)
17. DE - Colton Vasek - Austin Westlake (81)
18. LB - Derion Gullette - Teague (88)
19. OL - Harris Sewell - Odessa Permian (95)
20. Ath - Dalton Brooks - Shiner (104)
21. DE - Jordan Renaud - Tyler Legacy (115)
22. CB - Micah Bell - Houston Kinkaid (119)
23. RB - Quinton Joyner - Manor (120)
24. WR - Ryan Niblett - Aldine Eisenhower (134)
25. WR - Braylon James - Round Rock (136)
26. OL - Ian Reed - Austin Vandergrift (147)
27. DE - Isaiah Crawford - Post (149)
28. CB - Calvin Simpson-Hunt - Waxahachie (152)
29. CB - Tay'Shawn Wilson - Houston Mayde Creek (156)
30. DE - Princewill Umanmielen - Manor (158)
31. OL - Colton Thomasson - Smithson Valley (165)
32. WR - Anthony Evans - Converse Judson (174)
Initial Thoughts: My disagreements with Rivals don't really begin until we get into the mid 20s and the historical data shows that there's not enough of a difference between 25 through 75 to throw much of a hissy fit. I have a few players at the mid four-star range that they have in the low four-star range and vice-versa.
Underrated: Other than Niblett, there's not really anyone Rivals has ranked as a mid-four star that I'd call underrated. There's a few overrated prospects from my perspective, but again, standing on the table for a state top 50 kid because you think he should be in the top 25-30 doesn't usually end up being a battle worth having.
Should Be In This Group: The national guys really, really need to read my historical data reports because they have borderline criminally underrated a bunch of non-Tweener defensive ends because of they did, they'd know that the likes of Dylan Spencer, Avion Carter and Anthony James are about as valuable as prospects as any high four-star they currently have on the list. Players with their profiles from the state of Texas play on Sundays at almost a 50-50 clip. For my money, the ranking of Spencer at No.38 in the next tier is borderline obscene.
Bottom Line: Defensive ends and defensive backs should be prioritized inside of this group more than they are, but Rivals isn't alone in not understanding the strength and weaknesses of this non-top two tiers in the rankings. It's an industry issue.
Low Four Stars
33. OL - Jaydon Chatman - Harker Heights (181)
34. RB - Kedrick Reescano - New Caney (184)
35. RB - Tre Wisner - DeSoto (189)
36. LB - Samuel Omosigho - Crandall (194)
37. TE - Jaden Platt - Haslet Eaton (204)
38. DE - Dylan Spencer - C.E. King (216)
39. DB - Jamel Johnson - Arlington Seguin (217)
40. DE - Johnny Bowens - Converse Judson (225)
41. DE - Markis Deal - Naaman Forest (226)
42. DE - Enow Etta - Colleyville Christian (237)
43. CB - Jaylon Braxton - Frisco Lone Star (238)
44. LB - S'Maje Burrell - North Crowley (241)
45. Ath - Noble Johnson - Rockwall (242)
Initial Thoughts: 5 of the 13 players in this tier are Texas commitments. Of those five, I'd have Spencer and Burrell ranked a little higher.
Underrated: I've already mentioned the defensive ends in this group, but having Deal at No.40 seems low when you consider that he's a versatile prospect that could play on either side of the ball. Not having Avion Carter in the top 45 is an eye-opener and screams of a player that might be getting the raw end of the stick for not participating in national events this summer, especially when you consider that some believed he outperformed David Hicks at the 2021 Under Armour's Dallas camp.
Should Be In This Group: Mikal Harrison-Pilot is another layer that has to be in the top 45 for my money. I'm sure he's just outside of this grouping and that he'll have a low four-star grade like the rest of them, but I'd have him in the Rivals250. Same with Anthony James and Connor Stroh.
Bottom Line: See the previous bottom lines. My nitpicks in most cases aren't worth getting riled up over, even if they are worth noting.
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