After many crowed about Texas being capable of winning 10+ following the Louisiana victory, I typed this up and started to post it on Thursday. But, didn't want to enter the weekend arguing with those that inevitably would think I was taking a dump on Texas & Sark. So, I shelved the post. In light of yesterday's disappointment though, I figured I might as well post it.
I know everyone wants Texas to roar out of the gates under Sark and instantly compete for the Big 12, with an outside shot at even reaching the Playoff. And, I want that too. But, if you look at the data from coaches that we all respect, almost NONE of them had great 1st seasons. For the most part, year 1 was up & down. It's year 2 or year 3 that, almost across the board, is when the elite coaches roar into the Top 10 and/or compete for National Championships. I don't want to talk anyone out of believing this is going to be a great season. And, I don't want to talk anyone off the ledge that believes this will be a disastrous season. But, I want to at least give context for what to expect, because if history is right, Sark will have some outstanding upsets.......and he'll have some crushing defeats.
Here's the 1st year record of EVERY good to great coach the last 36 years that (a) was hired by a premier program (i.e. programs capable of competing for NCs) and (b) took over a program that was NOT a perennial Top 10 program. That means guys like Jimmy Johnson, Ryan Day, Lincoln Riley, Urban Meyer (at tOSU), etc aren't included. These are ONLY coaches that took over programs that were at or near the pinnacle of the sport. When I looked this up, I had in mind to simply include the last 25 seasons. But, guys like Terry Bowden & Gary Moeller were just outside that mark, and I didn't want to be accused of picking a specific date to skew the data one way or the other, so I just cut everything off at 1985.
Bad 1st Seasons
36.4% (4-6-1) -- John Cooper -- Ohio State (1988)
45.5% (5-6) -- Lou Holtz -- Notre Dame (1986)
50.0% (6-6) -- Pete Carroll -- USC (2001)
53.8% (7-6) -- Nick Saban -- Alabama (2007)
53.8% (7-6) -- James Franklin -- Penn St (2014)
58.3% (7-5) -- Bob Stoops -- Oklahoma (1999)
58.3% (7-5) -- Gene Stallings -- Alabama (1990)
58.3% (7-5) -- Jim Tressel -- Ohio State (2001)
Decent 1st Seasons
61.5% (8-5) -- Brian Kelly -- Notre Dame (2010)
64.3% (9-4) -- Dabo Swinney -- Clemson (2009) ***
66.7% (8-4) -- Nick Saban -- LSU (2000)
66.7% (8-4) -- Mark Richt -- Georgia (2001)
69.2% (9-4) -- Lloyd Carr -- Michigan (1995) ***
69.2% (9-4) -- Mark Richt -- Miami (2016)
Good 1st Seasons
71.4% (10-4) -- Jimbo Fisher -- Florida St (2010) ***
75.0% (9-3) -- Mack Brown -- Texas (1998)
75.0% (9-3) -- Gary Moeller -- Michigan (1990) ***
75.0% (9-3) -- Urban Meyer -- Florida (2005)
Great 1st Seasons
76.9% (10-3) -- Jim Harbaugh -- Michigan (2015)
81.8% (9-2) -- Steve Spurrier -- Florida (1990)
Outstanding 1st Seasons
100% (11-0) -- Terry Bowden -- Auburn (1993)
*** Internal Hire
I added the good/great season categories above, just to make it easier to read the data. Zero issues if anyone want to argue one a particular season belongs in a different category. I honestly don't care & am no preferential. I just wanted to display the data as easily as possible.
Other than Terry Bowden, no a single good to great coach had a Top 10 season after being hired by a program that was perennially outside the Top 15. None of that's to say that Sark won't bomb at Texas. And, none of it's to say he won't be a sensation. It's just to provide context. Expecting him to have a 10+ win season is unrealistic, because it's something very few of the greats over the last 36 seasons have accomplished. If you look through the data......season-by-season.......HOF coach by HOF coach........almost all of them had up & down first seasons. And it makes sense. 100% of the players are learning a completely new scheme from scratch. When they step on the field, they're thinking, rather than reacting, because they don't have the comfort & familiarity that comes from having spent a season or more in that system. A significant portion of the coaches' time was wasted scouting his own players to figure out what he was working with. There are talent and depth holes that can't be fixed in a single offseason. And, the in-coming "transition" class is almost always down, which exacerbates the talent/depth issues.
Now go look at the 2nd season for all of those coaches. With rare exception, they're all significantly better. Dabo is the only one that didn't have a Top 25 season in year 2, and the OVERWHELMING majority had Top 10 seasons, with a number of them winning a National Championship (Urban, Tressel, Stoops...).
All of that's to say.......don't attach yourself to a yo-yo and bounce up & down all season. There are going to be disappointments as the players & coaches work out the kinks, get up to speed, etc. If you look through the first season of all of the coaches above, you'll see almost all of them had embarrassing losses. Saban, Mack, et al.
I know everyone wants Texas to roar out of the gates under Sark and instantly compete for the Big 12, with an outside shot at even reaching the Playoff. And, I want that too. But, if you look at the data from coaches that we all respect, almost NONE of them had great 1st seasons. For the most part, year 1 was up & down. It's year 2 or year 3 that, almost across the board, is when the elite coaches roar into the Top 10 and/or compete for National Championships. I don't want to talk anyone out of believing this is going to be a great season. And, I don't want to talk anyone off the ledge that believes this will be a disastrous season. But, I want to at least give context for what to expect, because if history is right, Sark will have some outstanding upsets.......and he'll have some crushing defeats.
Here's the 1st year record of EVERY good to great coach the last 36 years that (a) was hired by a premier program (i.e. programs capable of competing for NCs) and (b) took over a program that was NOT a perennial Top 10 program. That means guys like Jimmy Johnson, Ryan Day, Lincoln Riley, Urban Meyer (at tOSU), etc aren't included. These are ONLY coaches that took over programs that were at or near the pinnacle of the sport. When I looked this up, I had in mind to simply include the last 25 seasons. But, guys like Terry Bowden & Gary Moeller were just outside that mark, and I didn't want to be accused of picking a specific date to skew the data one way or the other, so I just cut everything off at 1985.
Bad 1st Seasons
36.4% (4-6-1) -- John Cooper -- Ohio State (1988)
45.5% (5-6) -- Lou Holtz -- Notre Dame (1986)
50.0% (6-6) -- Pete Carroll -- USC (2001)
53.8% (7-6) -- Nick Saban -- Alabama (2007)
53.8% (7-6) -- James Franklin -- Penn St (2014)
58.3% (7-5) -- Bob Stoops -- Oklahoma (1999)
58.3% (7-5) -- Gene Stallings -- Alabama (1990)
58.3% (7-5) -- Jim Tressel -- Ohio State (2001)
Decent 1st Seasons
61.5% (8-5) -- Brian Kelly -- Notre Dame (2010)
64.3% (9-4) -- Dabo Swinney -- Clemson (2009) ***
66.7% (8-4) -- Nick Saban -- LSU (2000)
66.7% (8-4) -- Mark Richt -- Georgia (2001)
69.2% (9-4) -- Lloyd Carr -- Michigan (1995) ***
69.2% (9-4) -- Mark Richt -- Miami (2016)
Good 1st Seasons
71.4% (10-4) -- Jimbo Fisher -- Florida St (2010) ***
75.0% (9-3) -- Mack Brown -- Texas (1998)
75.0% (9-3) -- Gary Moeller -- Michigan (1990) ***
75.0% (9-3) -- Urban Meyer -- Florida (2005)
Great 1st Seasons
76.9% (10-3) -- Jim Harbaugh -- Michigan (2015)
81.8% (9-2) -- Steve Spurrier -- Florida (1990)
Outstanding 1st Seasons
100% (11-0) -- Terry Bowden -- Auburn (1993)
*** Internal Hire
I added the good/great season categories above, just to make it easier to read the data. Zero issues if anyone want to argue one a particular season belongs in a different category. I honestly don't care & am no preferential. I just wanted to display the data as easily as possible.
Other than Terry Bowden, no a single good to great coach had a Top 10 season after being hired by a program that was perennially outside the Top 15. None of that's to say that Sark won't bomb at Texas. And, none of it's to say he won't be a sensation. It's just to provide context. Expecting him to have a 10+ win season is unrealistic, because it's something very few of the greats over the last 36 seasons have accomplished. If you look through the data......season-by-season.......HOF coach by HOF coach........almost all of them had up & down first seasons. And it makes sense. 100% of the players are learning a completely new scheme from scratch. When they step on the field, they're thinking, rather than reacting, because they don't have the comfort & familiarity that comes from having spent a season or more in that system. A significant portion of the coaches' time was wasted scouting his own players to figure out what he was working with. There are talent and depth holes that can't be fixed in a single offseason. And, the in-coming "transition" class is almost always down, which exacerbates the talent/depth issues.
Now go look at the 2nd season for all of those coaches. With rare exception, they're all significantly better. Dabo is the only one that didn't have a Top 25 season in year 2, and the OVERWHELMING majority had Top 10 seasons, with a number of them winning a National Championship (Urban, Tressel, Stoops...).
All of that's to say.......don't attach yourself to a yo-yo and bounce up & down all season. There are going to be disappointments as the players & coaches work out the kinks, get up to speed, etc. If you look through the first season of all of the coaches above, you'll see almost all of them had embarrassing losses. Saban, Mack, et al.
