Is it time to tap the brakes on 2017 JUCO LB Gary Johnson's 'immediate impact'?
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This news was certainly a bit unexpected. As Longhorns fans saw, Hager took a major step forward in 2016 after being moved to the "Fox"-role in Charlie Strong's defense. Hager was the most productive defensive player on the team per the Deep Dig's official statistics. As the season went on (and coordinators got demoted), Strong tweaked the defense to have two players like this on the field at the same time in Hager and Malcolm Roach in a "double-fox" look. It was a defense with two true "linemen" down, two "linebackers" on the outside (one sometimes had his hand in the dirt, but not always). There were also two "inside" linebackers inside in the box and off the line of scrimmage with nickel personnel in the secondary.
I've laid things out in this way to serve as an illustration that should show you that a Todd Orlando 3-4 nickel defense might not always look TOO much different (personnel-and-alignment-wise) from what you saw at times in 2016 -- especially toward the end of the season. And in 2016, Hager proved he was most natural in an outside capacity. The only argument that could be made against Hager's productivity (or fit) off the edge was his propensity for pursuing too hard down the line of scrimmage and absolutely blowing contain. He plays like a bull in a china shop and it killed Texas versus zone-read concepts on many an occasion in 2016. Other than that, Hager was a dynamo.
To add another wrinkle in the 2017 mix, we know that Todd Orlando told the Longhorn Network during national signing day programming that junior Malik Jefferson would play the "rover" linebacker position, which is the weak-side inside linebacker. This is, of course, different from the previous two seasons where Jefferson has played in the middle.
Finally, Tom Herman gave indications at his own signing day press conference with the local media that Johnson (who will come in as a junior) was targeted by Orlando to play a mike/mack role; to use his incredible speed both in a sideline-to-sideline and downhill fashion.
So, if we play the two IF/THEN scenarios pertaining to Hager's slotting within the linebacker corps in a TRUE nickel sense (where the F BACKER comes off the field for the nickel back, leaving only three spots for linebackers), it becomes clear that those who've been pegging Gary Johnson as a day-one starter on defense probably need to tap the brakes.
IF Malik Jefferson starts at ROVER and Breckyn Hager starts at MACK, THEN Johnson will inherently be, at best, No. 2 on the MLB depth chart.
IF Malik Jefferson starts at ROVER and Breckyn Hager stays at the B-BACKER (OLB) position, THEN the MACK position would be open, but Johnson (who will not be on campus until summer) will face relatively extreme competition from veteran players along the lines of Jeffrey McCulloch, Edwin Freeman and Anthony Wheeler to start. McCulloch is one of the best athletes on the team and was by far the best disruptor on a per-snap basis in 2016 while Wheeler would represent a returning starter next to Jefferson and the team's most prolific volume-tackler from 2016.
... But what about the IF/THEN scenarios that would take place if the F-BACKER were to stay on the field in nickel (similar to how Hager, Roach and the two big DL were used at times last season in "double-fox" AND Texas were to use the B-BACKER in a sometimes-down, sometimes-off role)?
IF Malik Jefferson starts at ROVER and Breckyn Hager stays at the B-BACKER (OLB) position AND Malcolm Roach moves to the F-BACKER, THEN, Johnson would probably still have to compete with Wheeler and McCulloch for the starting MACK role.
IF Malik Jefferson starts at ROVER and Breckyn Hager stays at the B-BACKER (OLB) position AND Malcolm Roach stays at an END (not optimal in this set) AND Jeffery McCulloch moves to F-BACKER (a great fit for the Shark), THEN Johnson finally has his best chance of sliding into a starting spot at the MACK, as he'd only have competition in this set from Anthony Wheeler and maybe Edwin Freeman.
So, as we see here, the best shot Johnson has to make a 'starter's' impact in 2017 is if the defense frequently utilizes a look similar to these directly above in order to get its four best linebackers on the field, AND, in that scenario, it is decided that Malcolm Roach (one of the biggest rising stars on defense and the second-most productive player overall last season per the Deep Dig) will not play in an OLB capacity.
The first part seems relatively plausible, but the second does not. It seems like, if Texas were to have a sub-package look similar to this, it would be done explicitly to get some combination of players including Roach at an outside linebacker as shown in the third image.
Therefore, it can be reasoned that Gary Johnson will have to come in and beat out at least Jeffrey McCulloch for starting duties. While Johnson will be a junior and McCulloch is only a sophomore, McCulloch will have one calendar year on Johnson in a Division I football program and an entire spring with the new coaching staff under his belt by the time Johnson even hits campus. McCulloch was a Top 10 recruit in the state coming into the program and has shown suddenness and speed similar to Johnson. McCulloch is also bigger and more powerful than Johnson at this time.
In 2016, McCulloch played only 169 snaps on defense, and they were meaningful snaps played at mostly at the MIKE position but also at the SAM/DOUBLE FOX. For this reason, it's sensible to believe that McCulloch could stand to slide into either an inside or outside position in 2017 depending on how the other pieces fall. As for why you might want him on the field, just look at the Deep Dig's numbers:
QB disruption caused (a sack, a QB hit or a QB pressure): once every 14.6 snaps
That is good for number one on the entire defense in 2016, in front of Malcolm Roach (15.4), Erick Fowler (20), Breckyn Hager (21.8), Bryce Cottrell (24.6) and Charles Omenihu (24.7). After this grouping, the next best number is Malik Jefferson at 38. This goes to show that McCulloch, who played mainly in the exact same role that Jefferson played last season, was nearly three times as efficient at somehow finding his way to the QB. This has to do with speed and instincts from the inside linebacker position, two attributes Todd Orlando craves in a unit built upon pressuring the signal-caller from surprise spots.
Snaps per production caused (tackle, sack, hit, TFL, batted pass, caused/recovered fumble, run-stuffs, PBUs, INTs, blowups, TDs, lockdown bonuses (DBs) and safeties): once every 6.04 snaps.
That is good for number two on the entire defense behind only Breckyn Hager (5.69). The only other players who have a snaps-per number less than 7 in the productivity department were Malcolm Roach (6.36) and (somewhat surprisingly) Erick Fowler (6.67).
Judging by the way the pieces are beginning to fall, it looks like McCulloch is the guy who'll have to hold off Gary Johnson. It's probably a good problem for fans to worry about; that is, possibly having enough good linebackers to where you physically can't have everyone you want on the field at the same time.
And Gary Johnson is one of those guys who you certainly do want on the field ...
However, a bet on Johnson's "immediate impact" is shaping up -- for all intents and purposes -- to look an awful lot like a bet against The Shark.
***
Orangebloods staff reports from last week's 'Inside the War Room' column stated that a possibility is being discussed that may move junior OLB Breckyn Hager back to the (inside) mike linebacker position that he played for most of his freshman season at Texas. Under new DC Todd Orlando, this position has traditionally been called the "mack."
This news was certainly a bit unexpected. As Longhorns fans saw, Hager took a major step forward in 2016 after being moved to the "Fox"-role in Charlie Strong's defense. Hager was the most productive defensive player on the team per the Deep Dig's official statistics. As the season went on (and coordinators got demoted), Strong tweaked the defense to have two players like this on the field at the same time in Hager and Malcolm Roach in a "double-fox" look. It was a defense with two true "linemen" down, two "linebackers" on the outside (one sometimes had his hand in the dirt, but not always). There were also two "inside" linebackers inside in the box and off the line of scrimmage with nickel personnel in the secondary.
I've laid things out in this way to serve as an illustration that should show you that a Todd Orlando 3-4 nickel defense might not always look TOO much different (personnel-and-alignment-wise) from what you saw at times in 2016 -- especially toward the end of the season. And in 2016, Hager proved he was most natural in an outside capacity. The only argument that could be made against Hager's productivity (or fit) off the edge was his propensity for pursuing too hard down the line of scrimmage and absolutely blowing contain. He plays like a bull in a china shop and it killed Texas versus zone-read concepts on many an occasion in 2016. Other than that, Hager was a dynamo.
To add another wrinkle in the 2017 mix, we know that Todd Orlando told the Longhorn Network during national signing day programming that junior Malik Jefferson would play the "rover" linebacker position, which is the weak-side inside linebacker. This is, of course, different from the previous two seasons where Jefferson has played in the middle.
Finally, Tom Herman gave indications at his own signing day press conference with the local media that Johnson (who will come in as a junior) was targeted by Orlando to play a mike/mack role; to use his incredible speed both in a sideline-to-sideline and downhill fashion.
So, if we play the two IF/THEN scenarios pertaining to Hager's slotting within the linebacker corps in a TRUE nickel sense (where the F BACKER comes off the field for the nickel back, leaving only three spots for linebackers), it becomes clear that those who've been pegging Gary Johnson as a day-one starter on defense probably need to tap the brakes.
IF Malik Jefferson starts at ROVER and Breckyn Hager starts at MACK, THEN Johnson will inherently be, at best, No. 2 on the MLB depth chart.
IF Malik Jefferson starts at ROVER and Breckyn Hager stays at the B-BACKER (OLB) position, THEN the MACK position would be open, but Johnson (who will not be on campus until summer) will face relatively extreme competition from veteran players along the lines of Jeffrey McCulloch, Edwin Freeman and Anthony Wheeler to start. McCulloch is one of the best athletes on the team and was by far the best disruptor on a per-snap basis in 2016 while Wheeler would represent a returning starter next to Jefferson and the team's most prolific volume-tackler from 2016.
... But what about the IF/THEN scenarios that would take place if the F-BACKER were to stay on the field in nickel (similar to how Hager, Roach and the two big DL were used at times last season in "double-fox" AND Texas were to use the B-BACKER in a sometimes-down, sometimes-off role)?
IF Malik Jefferson starts at ROVER and Breckyn Hager stays at the B-BACKER (OLB) position AND Malcolm Roach moves to the F-BACKER, THEN, Johnson would probably still have to compete with Wheeler and McCulloch for the starting MACK role.
IF Malik Jefferson starts at ROVER and Breckyn Hager stays at the B-BACKER (OLB) position AND Malcolm Roach stays at an END (not optimal in this set) AND Jeffery McCulloch moves to F-BACKER (a great fit for the Shark), THEN Johnson finally has his best chance of sliding into a starting spot at the MACK, as he'd only have competition in this set from Anthony Wheeler and maybe Edwin Freeman.
So, as we see here, the best shot Johnson has to make a 'starter's' impact in 2017 is if the defense frequently utilizes a look similar to these directly above in order to get its four best linebackers on the field, AND, in that scenario, it is decided that Malcolm Roach (one of the biggest rising stars on defense and the second-most productive player overall last season per the Deep Dig) will not play in an OLB capacity.
The first part seems relatively plausible, but the second does not. It seems like, if Texas were to have a sub-package look similar to this, it would be done explicitly to get some combination of players including Roach at an outside linebacker as shown in the third image.
Therefore, it can be reasoned that Gary Johnson will have to come in and beat out at least Jeffrey McCulloch for starting duties. While Johnson will be a junior and McCulloch is only a sophomore, McCulloch will have one calendar year on Johnson in a Division I football program and an entire spring with the new coaching staff under his belt by the time Johnson even hits campus. McCulloch was a Top 10 recruit in the state coming into the program and has shown suddenness and speed similar to Johnson. McCulloch is also bigger and more powerful than Johnson at this time.
In 2016, McCulloch played only 169 snaps on defense, and they were meaningful snaps played at mostly at the MIKE position but also at the SAM/DOUBLE FOX. For this reason, it's sensible to believe that McCulloch could stand to slide into either an inside or outside position in 2017 depending on how the other pieces fall. As for why you might want him on the field, just look at the Deep Dig's numbers:
QB disruption caused (a sack, a QB hit or a QB pressure): once every 14.6 snaps
That is good for number one on the entire defense in 2016, in front of Malcolm Roach (15.4), Erick Fowler (20), Breckyn Hager (21.8), Bryce Cottrell (24.6) and Charles Omenihu (24.7). After this grouping, the next best number is Malik Jefferson at 38. This goes to show that McCulloch, who played mainly in the exact same role that Jefferson played last season, was nearly three times as efficient at somehow finding his way to the QB. This has to do with speed and instincts from the inside linebacker position, two attributes Todd Orlando craves in a unit built upon pressuring the signal-caller from surprise spots.
Snaps per production caused (tackle, sack, hit, TFL, batted pass, caused/recovered fumble, run-stuffs, PBUs, INTs, blowups, TDs, lockdown bonuses (DBs) and safeties): once every 6.04 snaps.
That is good for number two on the entire defense behind only Breckyn Hager (5.69). The only other players who have a snaps-per number less than 7 in the productivity department were Malcolm Roach (6.36) and (somewhat surprisingly) Erick Fowler (6.67).
Judging by the way the pieces are beginning to fall, it looks like McCulloch is the guy who'll have to hold off Gary Johnson. It's probably a good problem for fans to worry about; that is, possibly having enough good linebackers to where you physically can't have everyone you want on the field at the same time.
And Gary Johnson is one of those guys who you certainly do want on the field ...
However, a bet on Johnson's "immediate impact" is shaping up -- for all intents and purposes -- to look an awful lot like a bet against The Shark.
