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Texas BASEBALL - 2023 Season Preview

ZachattheDisch

Texas Longhorn Baseball
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Jun 1, 2006
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16 Days. In just over two weeks time, Texas fans will get to see the Horns take the diamond this Spring for the annual Alumni Game. While it is certainly not going to tell fans anything about this squad, it is a great time to be out at the Disch and get an in person view of the 2023 version of Horns baseball.

Alumni Game (Varsity v. Alumni)
Date: Feb 4th
Time: Noon CST
Television: Longhorn Network


I apologize in advance as this is LONG, so pop a cold one or three and have at it.


Taking that in mind, lets take a look at the 2023 version of Texas Longhorn baseball. @AaronLittleOB, @Travis Galey and I have put together a view of the projected pitching rotation, projected lineup, new faces in the program, projections for the season and finally a look at the Big 12 opponents that Texas will face off against in the quest for a self record breaking 39th trip to Omaha. 2023 is a new year and as mentioned previously, there has been a ton of turn over from last years Omaha squad due to expired eligibility and players heading off to MLB.

While Texas is one of those select few programs where success will always be judged by a summer vacation to Omaha, this years expectations realistically are very different than last year's squad that kicked off the year as #1 in the nation. That is not to say that internally the goal of the coaching staff and players is not to make it back to Omaha as it absolutely is, but this year's squad has a very different makeup and ceiling as compared to last year. The good news is that there is a ton of potential with this years squad, highlighted by an a strong incoming freshman class and some key transfer portal additions.

The other good news for Texas and fans is that last year's arduous road schedule is gone and it has been replaced by a very friendly home schedule. The Horns only have one true non-conference road series (at Cal State Fullerton). The Horns do kick off the season in Arlington again in 2023 and will face a strong trio of #8 Arkansas, Missouri and #10 Vanderbilt. The Arlington series will be an excellent early test for the squad to see how they matchup against Omaha class teams and to get a view of where they are and what needs to be done. Even if Texas does go 1-2 or god forbid 0-3 on the weekend, all is not lost. The Horns will face the following ranked opponents in 2023 per D1Baseball (#1 LSU, #5 Texas A&M, #8 Arkansas, #9 Oklahoma State, #10 Vanderbilt, #15 TCU and #24 Texas Tech). For the full Texas schedule, visit this link (2023 Schedule).

Speaking of rankings, as mentioned previously, Texas will begin the season unranked or barely ranked in the majority of the polls. Officially, the NCAA utilizes D1Baseball's poll, which finds Texas just outside of the Top 25. Here is a breakdown of the various rankings currently released.

D1Baseball - #9 Oklahoma State, #15 TCU and #24 Texas Tech
Collegiate Baseball News - #12 Oklahoma State, #15 TCU, #17 Texas Tech and #25 Texas
College Baseball Nation - #18 Texas, #19 Oklahoma State and #24 Texas Tech
Perfect Game - #14 TCU, #16 Texas Tech, #18 Oklahoma State and #24 Texas

Not that it matters in the least, but here is how I would rank Big 12 teams coming into the season. #10 Oklahoma State, #13 TCU and #21 Texas Tech


PITCHING PREVIEW:
Without further adieu, lets take a look at the 2023 squad and projections starting with the Horns pitching projections by our very own eephus maestro @AaronLittleOB:

  • Projected Weekend Rotation
    • Lucas Gordon - Junior LHP
      • 2022 - 7-2, 3.05 ERA, 85.2 IP
      • It seems like Lucas Gordon is the least talked about Friday night starter that the Horns have had in recent memory. Gordon was forced into the weekend rotation last season after Tanner Witt went down with an elbow injury, and while no single player was going to be able to make up for what was lost with Witt, Gordon was vital to the Horns’ run to Omaha.
      • In 2022 Gordon went after hitters with fastballs at the knees, a unique changeup, and varying types of breaking balls. That combination was good for Gordon throughout the year but against the best teams -- the start in Omaha against A&M comes to mind -- hitters seemed comfortable in the box, unafraid of being overpowered.
      • During the offseason Gordon worked on adding a more traditional “sweeping” slider, while also flirting with more fastballs to the top of the zone. I had a source that I trust indicate to me that the metrics on Gordon’s fastball show that it could be really effective if thrown to the top of the zone on occasion. These reports on Gordon have me encouraged that he can take the next step to go from a reliable Sunday starter, to a guy that can go toe-to-toe with other aces in the conference.
      • After gaining a lot of confidence and experience in 2022, a true three-pitch mix could lead Gordon to a breakout season in 2023.
    • Charlie Hurley - Junior RHP
      • 2022 (USC) - 6-2, 4.19 ERA, 73 IP
      • Hurley was a big transfer portal addition this offseason. The 6’8” righty figures to slide into the weekend rotation after making 13 starts for USC in 2022.
      • In the Fall World Series Hurley displayed a sinking fastball that sat 91-93 MPH. He relies heavily on a big 12-6 curveball and consistently flashed a changeup to lefties. I expect Hurley to provide experience and reliability to a pitching staff that enters the year with a lot of question marks. And while his numbers at USC are not eye-popping by any means, I am interested to see what impact Woody Williams and Chris Gordon will have on someone like Hurley who clearly has potential with his 6’8” frame.
    • Zane Morehouse - Redshirt Junior RHP
      • 2022 - 3-1, 6.00 ERA, 39 IP and 6 starts
      • For my money, there is not a more important player for Texas in 2023 than Zane Morehouse.
      • Last season Morehouse was asked to do a little bit of everything including midweek starts, high leverage relief appearances, and weekend starts at the end of the year. It was clear as day all throughout last season that Morehouse possessed the raw stuff to dominate in the Big 12, it just never really came together. Morehouse would go from hot to cold in the blink of an eye and struggled with consistency out of the stretch. He was simply a different guy when people were on base.
      • Zane enters this season with a four-seam fastball that sits 93-95 MPH complemented by a devastating slider and a sinker. During the Fall World Series I was impressed by Zane’s ability to throw his slider in the zone to both righties and lefties. If Morehouse is able to put his slider in the zone regardless of the count, hitters largely will not have a chance. His fastball/slider combination has the highest potential of any two-pitch combo on the team.
      • It remains to be seen if Morehouse will be able to repeat his mechanics and stay in rhythm when guys get on base, and it’s fair to question the durability of a guy who only made six starts a season ago. But I remain bullish on Morehouse as a pitcher and believe he is the linchpin to a successful season from a pitching perspective.
  • Everyone else
    • On a pitching staff with little experience and many questions, it’s fair to assume that roles will shift heavily throughout the year based on performance. JUCO transfer Chris Stuart, Lebarron Johnson Jr, and Andre Duplantier are a few guys that the coaching staff has extended during the fall, making them logical candidates to compete for weekend spots or start midweek games. LBJ and Duplantier figure to also be in the mix for high leverage roles out of the bullpen. LBJ is certainly the main guy to watch from a potential breakout standpoint, he was throwing mid-to-upper 90s in the fall with good feel for his slider.
    • Luke Harrison and Travis Sthele will again be in the mix out of the bullpen after getting a lot of experience last year as freshmen, while Max Grubbs appears to be the freshman most likely to earn innings at this -- albeit early -- moment in time. Grubbs is a 6’1” righty with very clean mechanics, he relies mostly on a sinker/slider combination that he showed good command of in the Fall World Series.






**** @ZachattheDisch - Side note on Tanner Witt as I am sure everyone wants to know where he is at, how he is doing and if he will pitch in 2023. According to Coach Pierce, Tanner is ahead of schedule in his TJ rehab with the anticipation of being available to some small degree in early to mid April. That said, there is still no determination of Witt actually pitching this season as he could still very well sit out and continue prep for the 2023 MLB Draft. Conversations between the coaching staff, Witt (who is a very competitive man and absolutely wants to play) and his parents for what is best for him. Does he want to try and pitch a few short outings or take the Connor Prelipp (Alabama) route and only throw bullpen.





HITTING PREVIEW:

For the projected lineup, there are going to be a lot of new faces as the Horns lost a lot of experience and faces from last year's squad. Before we get into the project positional lineup, here is a quick glance at production lost.

  • 6 of the top 9 offensive leaders have departed
  • 1749 of the 2396 total ABs
  • 406 of 541 Runs
  • 578 of 753 Hits
  • 105 of 128 HRs
  • 398 of 505 RBIs
Needless to say, the offense is going to look different in 2023. No longer is the Golden Spikes winner ( Ivan Melendez) going to be banging out HRs while Murphy Stehly put up an absurd slash at times. The 2023 version of the Longhorns is going to be built on athleticism, speed on the base paths and gap to gap power over HRs. Expect speedsters like Eric Kennedy, Dylan Campbell, Porter Brown and others are expected to be turned loose and put pressure on opposing pitching and defense.


Positional Projections:
C - Garret Guillemette / Kimble Scheussler / Rylan Galvan / Peyton Powell
1B - Jared Thomas / Peyton Powell / Cam Constantine
2B - Jack O'Dowd / Jayden Duplantier / Cade O'Hara
SS - Mitchell Daly / Tanner Carlson / Cade O'Hara
3B - Jalin Flores / Tanner Carlson / Peyton Powell
LF - Porter Brown / Cam Constantine
CF - Eric Kennedy / Ace Whitehead
RF - Dylan Campbell / Max Belyeu
DH - Peyton Powell / Max Belyeu / Rylan Galvan


Looking at this lineup, you can pretty well take to the bank that Dylan Campbell (DC) is going to hit in the 3 hole. After playing sparingly last season, DC broke out in a big way late in the season, including that walk-off winning hit to RF in the Super Regional against East Carolina. The staff expects big things from Campbell this season as he has a great approach at the plate and the ball jumps off his bat in a different way than other hitters. Factor in the speed and his experience last year defensively and you can see why everyone is excited about what he can do.

Mitchell Daly has assumed the captain of the infield role from Trey Faltine and will look to replicate his freshman campaign after a Sophomore slump in which he struggled to get barrels on balls and find consistency. Another returning player that is expected to contribute heavily is Eric Kennedy who has been a left side mainstay for the Horns for the past few seasons. Look for him to continue to hit and use the slash bunt to get on base and create havoc. Another returning player that has turned heads is do it all Peyton Powell. The jack of all trades has always looked like a million bucks in the hitting cage, but he has started to put it together and he is a guy that I believe the staff will find a role for in the season.

Texas brought in several players through the transfer portal and the two most important are behind the plate (Garret Guillemette) and in LF (Porter Brown). Garret is the heir apparent to Silas Ardoin for catcher in 2023, where Texas has quite a few options. While the initial reports were that Garret was a bit "noisy" behind the plate defensively, he has settled in and appears to have locked up the starting position unsurprisingly after two strong years at USC and a strong summer on the Cape. The other transfer that is expected to be a day one starter in LF is TCU transfer Porter Brown. A quiet, almost unassuming kid, Brown came to Texas to compete for a regular starting position and bet on himself with a storied program like Texas. During the first scrimmage of the Fall, Brown displayed exactly why the Texas coaches were excited to land him, hitting for the cycle in the first 4 at-bats. Brown does not have a ton of power, but has a mature approach at the plate and can definitely swing the stick, in addition to being extremely athletic. The other major transfer was Tanner Carlson from Long Beach State. Carlson was sidelined for much of the Fall due to an minor injury, but could easily slot in at 3B, SS or even 2B if needed this Spring.


Looking at the freshman, Jalin Flores continues to exhibit why he was such a high prospect in the 2022 MLB Draft as he is expected to hit for average and has some power as well. The biggest transition for Flores is adjusting to college pitching and ensuring he stays within himself. The other notable freshman is Jared Thomas who once he fully grows into his body and adds strength is going to be a hand full from the left side of the plate. Lastly, the other freshman that is expected to play a role in 2023 is RF Max Belyeu. Belyeu came out of high school being best known for his bat and I expect the staff to get some plenty of ABs early on to potentially bring him along in the same vein as Dylan Campbell in prior seasons. Two other freshman that I expect to get playing time are Cade O'Hara and Jayden Duplantier. Cade O'Hara was a late addition to the Texas signing class and while he is behind others offensively, he has an outstanding glove and looked very comfortable at SS. Jayden is of course the younger brother of Andre Duplantier and is a lesson in trusting @DustinMcComas. Jayden looked extremely smooth defensively at 2B, moving well and adjusting to the turf, but more surprisingly looked more comfortable and settled at the plate than I thought he would. Long term, I really like his upside and I think Texas has their future 2B for the next couple of seasons. The other freshman that has not gotten as much talk as the others is Rylan Galvan, the long term answer at catcher for the Horns. After an exception prep career at Sinton, coached by none other than former Longhorn great Adrian Alaniz, there is a hope and promise in Galvans play. Natural power with an excellent presence at the plate, he very well could get some DH time this season. Having sat behind super prep prospect Blake Mitchell at Sinton and missing a few weeks in the Fall due to illness, Galvan has been a bit behind others, but I expect him to make good progress throughout the rest of the year.







Thoughts on the 2023 Schedule (@AaronLittleOB):
  • After playing 25 true road games last season, including a month long trip hiatus from home, Texas schedule has just 17 road games for the 2023 regular season. Coach David Pierce wanted to have more home games this season due to the inexperience of the team and after seeing the toll certain road games/trips took on the team last season. Notable non-conference games include an opening weekend in Arlington against #8 Arkansas, Missouri and #10 Vanderbilt. The Horns will also take a trip out West to face off against Cal State Fullerton at the beginning of March and have mid-week games scheduled against #5 Texas A&M and Texas State.
  • Big 12 Home Series: Texas Tech, Kansas State, Oklahoma and West Virginia
  • Big 12 Away Series: Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU and Kansas


Predictions for the season:



Big 12 Predictions:

@AaronLittleOB -
  1. Oklahoma State
  2. TCU
  3. Texas
  4. Texas Tech
  5. West Virgina
  6. Oklahoma
  7. Kansas State
  8. Baylor
  9. Kansas
@Travis Galey -
  1. Oklahoma State
  2. Texas
  3. TCU
  4. Texas Tech
  5. West Virgina
  6. Oklahoma
  7. Kansas State
  8. Baylor
  9. Kansas
@ZachattheDisch -
  1. Oklahoma State
  2. TCU
  3. Oklahoma
  4. Texas Tech
  5. Texas
  6. West Virginia
  7. Baylor
  8. Kansas
  9. Kansas State


Regular Season Record Prediction:
---Note: We are still working out a prize for the winner and what happens to the losers


Big 12 Conference Outlook:

  • Baylor:
    • New head coach in Mitch Thompson, previously head coach of McLennan, where he won the JUCO national title in 2021
    • Only return one (1) position player from last years squad (Andrade)
    • Pitching looks to be the strength of the Bears in 2023
      • Helton will be the weekend ace
      • Andrade and Caley will compete for weekend rotation
    • Outfield looks to be in a stronger position than Infield
    • Offense will look to grind out at-bats, steal and put on motion
    • Key Transfers: Teplanszky (TCU), Stracener (A&M), and Pendergrass (Cisco CC)
    • Personally - I will be watching freshman pitcher RHP Danny Valadez, having known the young man 2009.
  • Kansas:
    • New head coach Dan Fitzgerald who spent 9 years as an assistant at Dallas Baptist before spending one year as an assistant and recruiting coordinator at LSU
    • The Jayhawks have not made the NCAA tourney since 2014 and unfortunately, 2023 does not look like the year to break that streak
    • Expect to see a ton of new faces on the team as KU lost a ton of talent: Ahuna (Tennessee), Josenberger (Arkansas), Vanderhei (TCU) to name a few
    • Pitching looks to be the strength of the Jayhawks in 2023 with an anticipated rotation of Ireland (Minnesota), Baumgartner and either Cranton (SDSU) or Bradford (Nebraska)
    • Plenty of question marks offensively with a lot of new faces
      • Brooks (UCF), Cranford (LSU), Cobb (JUCO), Elvis (Cal), Leto (LSU), Hunt (Texas Tech) and Reeder (JUCO)
      • Offensively, this looks to be a team that does not have a lot of speed and will use more situational hitting above all else
  • Kansas State:
    • Lots of new faces in the team (a recurring theme this year in the Big 12)
    • Strength of the team looks to be the lineup, whereas the pitching staff has plenty of question marks
    • Offensively, the Wildcats will not have the same power that they did last year, but do boast one of the best SS in the Big 12 (Nick Goodwin), who had an outstanding season on the Cape
    • Interestingly, the Wildcats are going to base much of their lineup and defense on who the opposing team is, so there is going to be a lot of moving pieces
    • Pitching wise, it will be all hands on deck with no defined roles.
      • Hassall who was expected to be the ace is out for 2023 due to surgery
      • Wentworth and Rothermel are expected to play large roles, but will also be out for 1-2 months at the beginning of the season
      • Boerema (Div II) will be the "ace" of the staff
      • Hartis (Texas Tech) and Cater (Div III) and Fajardo (Arizona) will also look to play big roles
  • Oklahoma:
    • Sooners lost a ton of offense (Graham, Tredaway, Crooks, Robertson and Squires)
    • Extremely athletic!
    • New promoted assistance coach Willits will have OU running even more this season to create chaos on the base paths
    • A lot of pitching depth and really solid defense
    • Star Names on offense - Spikerman and Pettis
    • OU brought in a ton of transfers so competition has been fierce this past Fall and leading up to the season
    • Pitching, there was a lot of turnover as Sooners lost the entire weekend rotation of Bennett, Sandlin and Horton, as well as closer Michael.
      • Sooners brought in a lot of pitching talent though in Kale Davis (Okie State), Hitt (Texas Tech), Thomas (TCU), Douthit (Lamar) and Carsten (McLennan).
      • In total, Sooners brought in 11 transfer arms to bolster their staff, many of whom are tall power guys
  • Oklahoma State:
    • Pokes will be replacing their entire starting rotation as well as their top two relievers
    • Coaching staff brought in one of the biggest transfer portal pitchers in LBSU starting pitch Jauron Watts-Brown, who excelled in the Cape this past summer
      • The other transfer pitchers of note are Keisel (BYU), Hendry (St Johns), O'Toole (JUCO) and Hogue (JUCO)
      • Top returner is Bogusz who all should remember as having pitched an 8 inning gem against the Horns in the Big 12 Tournament
      • At the back of the bullpen, returner Nolan Mclean remains as a hard tossing flame thrower
    • Pokes lost Doersching, Thompson and Trenkle offensively but return quite a bit
      • Mclean is back and will start at 3B
      • Wulfert (JUCO) hit 20 HRs last season in JUCO
      • Roc Riggio is back and ready to improve on an outstanding freshman campaign
      • Mendham, Brown and Ehrhard also return in addition to Holt (LSU) and Turley (Arizona)
    • Top to bottom, Okie State is loaded with pitching and offense, which is why they are the betting favorites to win the Big12 in 2023
  • TCU:
    • Frogs lost their offensive guru as Bill Mosiello is now the head coach at Ohio State
    • Offensively, the Frogs return a core group of starters in Taylor (All-American), Nunez, Bishop and Byrne
      • The Frogs also added Baylor transfer Tre Richardson, West Virginia Austin Davis and McLennan transfer Fontenelle
      • Combining the starters and newcomers, the Frogs look to have an excellent core group of players
    • Pitching, the Frogs lost Cornelio, Korb, Walker and Perez, but brought in a number of guys
      • Staff ace will be Cam Brown
      • Kansas transfer Vanderhei will get the nod as a weekend starter
      • Luke Savage returns
      • California transfer Stoutenborough could be a weekend starter
      • Freshman Rodriguez and Hoover are two newcomers who will get plenty of looks as well
  • Texas Tech:
    • Lots of competition across the lineup
    • Pitching staff must replace 41 total starts as Birdsell, Morris and Hampton have departed
      • Mason Molina is expected to be the staff ace
      • Parish, Robertson and Ole Miss transfer Washburn are expected to play big roles
      • Another name to file away is Bo Blessie who will look to be the back end guy for the Red Raiders
    • Offensively, the Red Raiders lost some big names (Jace Jung, Stilwell, Murrell, Wilson and Kelly
      • Catcher Hudson White is one of the best in the Big 12
      • Dukart (Oregon St) will look to take one of the starting positions up the middle
      • Green (JUCO) was one of the best hitters in all of JUCO in 2022
      • Hester (Wofford) and Woodcox are two transfers that will also look to lock down starting positions that can really hit
      • Lastly, Texas transfer Gavin Kash has had a slow start in Lubbock after tearing it up in California during the summer, but has shown that he can really hit and will look to play a role
  • West Virginia:
    • New faces in the program! Nearly half of the roster is brand new to the team in 2023, as only 3 every day starters return from 2022
    • Mountaineers were just left out of the NCAA Tourney despite having a 14-10 Big 12 record and an RPI of 40 surprisingly
      • The 14-10 finish also happened to be the best ever Big 12 finish by WVU
    • Pitching will have some solid pieces, starting with Ben Hampton, who led the Cape League in strikeouts this past summer
      • Major, Reed and transfers Traxel (CSUN) and Siegel (Tulane) are really good pieces to build around. Siegel specifically had an outstanding freshman year with Tulane and I look forward to getting to see more of him in person.
      • Another major addition is Gavin Van Kampen who turned down MLB money to attend WVU and looks to have a very bright future
      • Lastly, Oklahoma transfer Keegan Allen could be the logical replacement to the departed closer Braithwaite
    • Offensively, this squad will look very different than last year, which was highlighted by Austin Davis and Victor Scott, who absolutely scorched the base paths en route to 199 steals.
      • WVU will instead rely on the power of Hussey and Wetherholt to get the offense going, along with 3B Garcia and freshman Sam White.
      • Evan Smith is a guy who could be poised to have a big year after a really solid summer and Fall
 
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