So...if you haven't seen mred's SEC Championship standings tiebreaker website...it is kind of shocking.
They have modeled all of the games played and you can choose winners of all remaining games. The biggest differentiator is the 2nd tiebreaker:
2. There's a three-way tie at the top and it looks like head-to-head record is being ignored. What's going on?
If three or more teams are tied, then round-robin record is only used if every tied team played all the other tied teams OR one team beat all the other teams OR one team lost to all the other teams.
Otherwise, it is ignored and we move to the next step.
See section 2.A.2. on the third page of the official SEC tiebreak procedure for this rule.
So...if no upsets and Texas beats A&M, it leaves A&M, Georgia and UT at 7-1...A&M and Georgia play:
1. Georgia (7 - 1)
With Texas A&M, above Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
Above Texas A&M based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (4-0).
2. Texas A&M (7 - 1)
With Georgia, above Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
Below Georgia based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-1).
3. Texas (7 - 1)
Below Georgia and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3594).
If we beat A&M...and they lose to, say, South Carolina...then we can go...
1. Georgia (7 - 1)
Above Texas based on head-to-head record (1-0).
2. Texas (7 - 1)
Below Georgia based on head-to-head record (0-1).
3. Alabama (6 - 2)
Above LSU, Tennessee, and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5313).
4. Texas A&M (6 - 2)
With LSU and Tennessee, below Alabama based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688).
With LSU, above Tennessee based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-0).
Above LSU based on head-to-head record (1-0).
If they lose to SCar and beat us...they go
1. Texas A&M (7 - 1)
Above Georgia based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
2. Georgia (7 - 1)
Below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4375).
3. LSU (6 - 2)
With Tennessee and Texas, above Alabama based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-0).
With Texas, above Tennessee based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (4-0).
Above Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4844).
4. Texas (6 - 2)
With LSU and Tennessee, above Alabama based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-0).
With LSU, above Tennessee based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (4-0).
Below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3594).
And...ironically...if LSU beats Alabama...and we win out.... the SEC Championship is A&M vs LSU
1. Texas A&M (7 - 1)
Above Georgia, LSU, and Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688).
2. LSU (7 - 1)
With Georgia and Texas, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
Above Georgia and Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
3. Georgia (7 - 1)
With LSU and Texas, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4375).
With Texas, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4375).
Above Texas based on head-to-head record (1-0).
4. Texas (7 - 1)
With Georgia and LSU, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3594).
With Georgia, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3594).
Below Georgia based on head-to-head record (0-1).
Here is the link mred's SEC Championbship Predictor
They have modeled all of the games played and you can choose winners of all remaining games. The biggest differentiator is the 2nd tiebreaker:
2. There's a three-way tie at the top and it looks like head-to-head record is being ignored. What's going on?
If three or more teams are tied, then round-robin record is only used if every tied team played all the other tied teams OR one team beat all the other teams OR one team lost to all the other teams.
Otherwise, it is ignored and we move to the next step.
See section 2.A.2. on the third page of the official SEC tiebreak procedure for this rule.
So...if no upsets and Texas beats A&M, it leaves A&M, Georgia and UT at 7-1...A&M and Georgia play:
1. Georgia (7 - 1)
With Texas A&M, above Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
Above Texas A&M based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (4-0).
2. Texas A&M (7 - 1)
With Georgia, above Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
Below Georgia based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (3-1).
3. Texas (7 - 1)
Below Georgia and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3594).
If we beat A&M...and they lose to, say, South Carolina...then we can go...
1. Georgia (7 - 1)
Above Texas based on head-to-head record (1-0).
2. Texas (7 - 1)
Below Georgia based on head-to-head record (0-1).
3. Alabama (6 - 2)
Above LSU, Tennessee, and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5313).
4. Texas A&M (6 - 2)
With LSU and Tennessee, below Alabama based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688).
With LSU, above Tennessee based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-0).
Above LSU based on head-to-head record (1-0).
If they lose to SCar and beat us...they go
1. Texas A&M (7 - 1)
Above Georgia based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
2. Georgia (7 - 1)
Below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4375).
3. LSU (6 - 2)
With Tennessee and Texas, above Alabama based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-0).
With Texas, above Tennessee based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (4-0).
Above Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4844).
4. Texas (6 - 2)
With LSU and Tennessee, above Alabama based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-0).
With LSU, above Tennessee based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (4-0).
Below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3594).
And...ironically...if LSU beats Alabama...and we win out.... the SEC Championship is A&M vs LSU
1. Texas A&M (7 - 1)
Above Georgia, LSU, and Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688).
2. LSU (7 - 1)
With Georgia and Texas, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
Above Georgia and Texas based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
3. Georgia (7 - 1)
With LSU and Texas, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4375).
With Texas, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4375).
Above Texas based on head-to-head record (1-0).
4. Texas (7 - 1)
With Georgia and LSU, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3594).
With Georgia, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3594).
Below Georgia based on head-to-head record (0-1).
Here is the link mred's SEC Championbship Predictor
