THREE THINGS WE LEARNED
1. It doesn’t sound like Tom Herman plans for any staff changes after the season
Fan frustration continues to mount with the struggles of the Texas offense, and the criticism of offensive coordinator Tim Beck reached a fever pitch on Saturday night after TCU was able to put the clamps on Texas, limiting the Longhorns to just 7 points and just 9 yards rushing.
Calls for a shuffling of the deck among the UT offensive coaching staff have pretty much become a weekly occurrence, with some hoping Tom Herman will take over playcalling duties, while others are calling for an outright replacement of Beck at the end of the season (at the latest). Herman was asked on Monday if he planned to stick with his current group of assistants past this season, and he wasted no time in giving his coaching staff a strong vote of support.
“Oh my gosh, yes. 100 percent,” Herman said. “We're all going to be evaluated and coached. It's my job as the head coach to coach the assistants and provide them feedback as to areas I think they need to improve, provide them with support and praise in areas that I think they are strong at and allow them to continue to enhance their strengths. But that's my job as the head coach is to coach the assistants.”
Herman did go on to say that he recognizes that there can be times when assistants (like players) become “uncoachable,” but he maintained through the course of his Monday press conference that he has confidence in his assistant coaches despite the offensive struggles. Without throwing his players under the bus, Herman detailed the issues Texas has had along the offensive line, and he ultimately absorbed a good chunk of the blame for the offensive issues, pointing out that all the coaches have a hand in game-planning and in-game adjustments and stating that he has a chance to override any and all in-game decisions.
“At the end the day, and the same goes for on defense, as well. If something comes out, a play that comes out that I don't think should be run, I'm going to say no, don't run that play,” Herman said.
Texas’ offense ranks 53rd nationally in total offense (413 ypg). The Longhorns actually rank a respectable 31st in passing offense, but are a dismal 97th in rushing offense. Texas actually averages 28.6 points per game, which is pretty much the definition of mediocrity (67th nationally), but those numbers are skewed a bit an overtime score and defensive/special teams scores. If you factor in only offensive scores in regulation, the Longhorns are averaging just 21.6 points per game, which would put Texas at 108th out of 129th in FBS in scoring average (those numbers are slightly skewed because I’m not factoring in non-offensive scores of other teams, but you get the point). The Longhorns rank 104th nationally in footballoutsiders.com’s offensive efficiency ratings and 97th in S&P+ Ratings.
Any way you slice it, things don’t look good, but I do agree with Herman on a few points. This team needs some continuity within its coaching ranks, particularly on offense, and this staff is coaching with both hands tied behind its collective back due to injuries and a lack of experience at pretty much every position on the offensive side of the ball. Herman has an offensive philosophy that has worked before, and it’s not realistic to expect him to change and fully relinquish any and all say in the offensive system and allow a new coordinator to completely revamp the Texas offense in the offseason. Ultimately, it’s up to Herman to get that side of the ball turned around and while it looks like 2017 is pretty much a lost cause, it’s probably too early to throw in the towel on his long-term goals. That being said, he and Beck will face a lot of justifiable pressure to get things turned around in 2018 and Beck’s seat will be white-hot if significant progress isn’t made next year.
2. Texas should strongly consider moving Jerrod Heard to quarterback in the off-season
Speaking of offensive struggles and plans to possibly jumpstart things, I had a conversation with a coaching friend of mine this week who mentioned that he thought Texas should have moved Jerrod Heard back to quarterback as soon as Tom Herman was hired. He had actually been saying that for months, and after watching the UT offense struggle through the first nine games of the season, he felt more strongly about it than ever.
Prior to our conversation this week, I really hadn’t given it a ton of thought. My belief had always been that Texas was in good hands with Shane Buechele and Sam Ehlinger, along with whoever UT signs in the 2018 class. But the more we talked about it and the more I thought about options for the 2018 season, it seems to make perfect sense to see if Heard can make that switch full-time in order to provide a spark for next season.
Herman was asked on Monday if there’s any chance Heard could get more QB work in the remaining three games of this season, and he basically said that’s not in the plans … Heard will continue to work at receiver and will be the team’s emergency quarterback if something happens to both Buechele and Ehlinger.
Once the season ends, a case could be made that giving Heard a shot to reclaim his footing at quarterback might be worth the risks that would be involved with such a move.
- As my coaching friend said, without a true dual-threat weapon in Tom Herman’s offense, about a third of the offensive game plan gets taken off the table. Heard obviously opens up more options in the running game on designed QB runs, plus his explosiveness and ability to improvise could take pressure off the offensive line and help free up running room for the tailbacks.
- Heard would obviously be a work in progress as a passer, but if Herman is as good of a developer of quarterbacks as most believe him to be, who’s to say he couldn’t turn Heard, a former high school all-American and two-time state champion, into a more than serviceable passer? It’s what he’s known for and he’s done it before with players with lesser pedigrees, a couple of whom are now playing in the NFL as wide receivers.
- If Texas was able to catch lightning in a bottle with Heard, similar to the way Herman did with Greg Ward Jr. at Houston, it would give the other quarterbacks on campus more time to develop and could make for a seamless transition to one of the younger quarterbacks in 2019.
- Heard has always been a player who has been well-liked and respected by his teammates and his peers. His success and ability to lead Denton Guyer is well-known, and other players were drawn to him when he took the field at top national recruiting events like the Rivals100 Five-Star Challenge and The Opening. He has the type of natural leadership qualities that Herman loves in his quarterbacks.
- If the move fails, and it becomes clear that Heard isn’t going to be the answer at the quarterback position next year, it would probably take him all of about one week to jump back into the receiver position and regain his form. And if we’re being honest, Heard is a nice weapon at receiver, but he hasn’t shown that he can be a true consistent game-changer at that position, and Texas isn’t exactly lacking in depth at the slot receiver position, with Reggie Hemphill-Mapps and Lil’Jordan Humphrey both appearing to have bright futures.
3. The Longhorns are cutting it close to gaining bowl eligibility
I don’t need to remind everyone of Texas’ record with just three regular-season games remaining. The Longhorns have to win two of their last three to qualify for a bowl, and it won’t be easy, with a road game against West Virginia still on the slate as well as a home tilt with a Texas Tech team that plays offense well enough that it’s an upset-candidate any time it takes the field.
With ¾ of the season in the books, let’s project how the remaining schedule plays out …
Kansas – This one’s a no-brainer, even with what happened last year. It’s in Austin, Kansas is dreadful and the Longhorns need a win. This should be a feel-good victory that sees Texas put up some decent stats to regain some momentum. The biggest key this week will be to get out of Saturday with an easy win and no devastating injuries. WIN.
At West Virginia –Texas is given a 53.3 percent chance of winning this game according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, which surprises me a little with the game being at West Virginia and the Mountaineers having a clear edge on offense. West Virginia has actually played pretty well at home this year, with its only loss coming by 11 to Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers don’t play great defense, but did knock off Iowa State in Morgantown last week, 20-16. This one will likely be the swing game for Texas and will probably be close for four quarters, but at some point Texas has to get over the hump in one of these close games, right? WIN.
Texas Tech – Most people are chalking this one up as an easy win, but I don’t see it that way at all. If Texas doesn’t beat WVU, the Longhorns will be playing for their bowl eligibility. Barring an upset of TCU, it looks like Tech will also be playing this one in an attempt to get its sixth win, so there could be quite a bit on the table. Texas should win, playing at home, against a Tech team that doesn’t play much defense, but something tells me this one plays closer than the numbers are indicating (Texas 73.3 win probability by the FPI). WIN.
Add it up and Texas finishes with a respectable 7-5 record, including going 6-3 in the Big 12. Not ideal, but that’s quite a bit of progress over what Texas has turned in the last three years.
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TWO QUESTIONS
1. Are there any Texas A&M commitments Texas could potentially flip?
It’s looking more and more like Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin will be let go with each passing week, and the subject has come up a few times recently about what currently-committed Texas A&M prospects the Longhorns might have a chance at landing.
The obvious need is along the offensive and defensive lines, but unfortunately for Texas, the Aggies just don’t have a lot of players that fit the needs UT has with its remaining spots, especially along the offensive line. A&M does currently have three offensive line commitments, but only one (Barton Clement) holds a UT offer and Texas never really pursued him that aggressively even before he committed.
Looking over on the defensive side, things are a bit more interesting.
LB DaShaun White – Plans to visit Texas and is down to a three-team race between A&M, Texas and Oklahoma. This one’s a very real possibility.
DE Max Wright – Remember, Wright told OB a few weeks ago that he’d like to come hit a Texas game at some point, and if A&M is going through a coaching search in December, I’d expect him to take an official visit that month. He may wind up sticking with A&M regardless, but Texas will have a chance to win him over. Wright does really like UT and Oscar Giles.
DE Bobby Brown – A&M’s most recent commitment, Brown has one official visit remaining. If he takes it, it will be to Texas and if Sumlin is canned, I’d expect he will in fact take that UT visit. This one would still be an uphill battle but if Texas can get him on campus, anything is possible.
2. What’s the outlook for UT’s linebacker recruiting?
It’s interesting that one week ago, there was a bit of a sense of panic with Texas’ linebacker recruiting situation in the days following UT commitment Ayodele Adeoye and top target DaShaun White’s visits to Oklahoma. Immediately after both players left OU’s campus, there were rumors that Adeoye would be flipping his commitment at any point, and White might just do the same without ever visiting Texas.
Fast forward a little more than a week, and the OU buzz has died down in regards to Adeoye, and he told Rivals.com this week that he’s “100 percent committed to Texas.” There was talk last week that Adeoye may take an official visit to Texas this coming weekend for the Kansas game, but as we mentioned in the War Room, that’s not going to happen since IMG Academy has a game of its own on Saturday. More likely, Adeoye will come in the weekend of December 15, which could benefit the Longhorns. For one, the longer Adeoye is removed from his OU visit without making any drastic moves, the better this one looks for Texas. Secondly, getting Adeoye on campus in December, the same weekend when most of the Longhorns’ other commitments will be in town, could go a long way towards solidifying his pledge.
As for White, it’s looking more and more likely that he’ll officially re-open his recruitment if/when Sumlin is let go at A&M. Oklahoma is still a major player in that one, but White does really like Texas as well. He told OB on Sunday night that he’d take his official visit to Texas this coming weekend, so the Longhorns will have their chance to really win him over if that trip does take place. If it gets pushed back, similar to the situation with Adeoye, it could be a blessing in disguise. White is close friends with UT linebacker commitment Byron Hobbs, so getting him on campus the same weekend as Hobbs and the other UT pledges could boost UT’s chances.
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ONE PREDICTION – Texas blows away Luke Ford this weekend and elevates its standing
The Longhorns will host the nation’s top tight end prospect, Luke Ford, on an official visit this weekend, and the guess here is that Texas heads out of the weekend as strong competitors for Ford’s commitment.
The Carterville (IL) product has had Alabama and Georgia as his top two for a while, with Texas in that next grouping of schools that’s hoping to work its way to the top of Ford’s list. Ford is coming off a Georgia official visit last week which likely blew him away, but Texas doesn’t often swing and miss on its own official visits. Ford has been on the UT campus once and thoroughly enjoyed that trip, and I’d expect more of the same this weekend. Unfortunately for Texas, Saturday’s game atmosphere probably won’t help UT’s cause, but Texas should be able to sell Ford on the opportunity for early playing time, academics and the city of Austin, which will all make an impact.
I still think Ford is SEC-bound when it’s all said and done, but I’ll be surprised if Texas doesn’t at least draw strong consideration after this visit.
