Texas once again struggled on the road last week, and the calls for change have gotten louder and louder. What should fans believe, what on-field changes are coming and will they make any difference?
We take a look at three things we learned over the last week, two questions that are on our mind and one prediction.
It's time for The 3-2-1 ...
THREE THINGS WE LEARNED
1. The rumor mill is going to be working overtime during the next five weeks
If the last couple days are any indication, those of us who cover the Longhorns are going to spend a lot of time chasing down rumors should Texas continue to limp towards the finish line of the 2016 season.
With every additional loss, the cries for change from both fans and media get louder and louder (including some national publications calling for Charlie Strong's firing immediatly after the K-State game), and you're going to hear a lot more from "insiders" who will claim to have knowledge on Strong's job status, or the Longhorns' attempt at securing a new coach.
My advice? Take it all with a big grain of salt.
As an example, rumors began swirling behind the scenes on Monday that Strong had been relieved of his job, which had all of us at Orangebloods frantically working our sources. The initial information came from someone close to the program, and it spilled over to other people with connections to the program who gave very loose confirmations as we began to make calls. About that same time, Benjam Allbright tweeted that Tom Herman to the Longhorns was "all but official," which set off another wave of discussion. It turns out, as expected, all the talk was way premature.
I think most would agree that Strong is facing an uphill battle to save his job. With five games remaining, four of which look extremely tough on paper, Strong needs to start piling up wins consistently, something he has been unable to in his two-and-a-half years in Austin. If he can't do that, more and more rumors are going to come out with each passing week and while things could always change if Texas goes out and gets embarrassed by a team like Baylor, we continue to hear that no final decision on Strong's future is expected be made during the season.
We can all speculate and try to project what is going to happen, but I like to stick to the things I know as factual and let you all put the pieces together however you see fit. What I can tell you, as of Tuesday morning, is that numerous people inside the program have not heard any word on Strong's future. As one key team source told me on Monday while making calls about a couple different rumors, the only thing Strong and the rest of the football staff are worried about right now is trying to find a way to get over the hump and stack some wins on top of one another. Everyone in the program knows what is at stake and hears the rumors, but there has been no actual talk of Strong being replaced. Furthermore, a source on the Houston side of things told me any talk of some back-channel agreement with Herman, as was tweeted on Monday, is completely inaccurate.
Could both of those stories pick up steam in the next few weeks? Of course, but most of what is being said this week has been inaccurate gossip and I'd tread lightly on believing any rumors you read in the coming weeks.
2. Texas is going to have a hard time finishing with an elite recruiting class
Prior to Saturday's game against Kansas State, I was thinking about what the Longhorns needed to do down the stretch to give the program a chance to finish with some recruiting success. The more I thought about it, I realized not only did Texas need to get to eight regular-season wins, but it probably needed to win every game remaining on the schedule (which would have put UT at nine regular-season wins prior to KSU).
Let's just say Strong's magic number of wins to get a fourth year is seven (although eight may be more realistic). Even if Texas wins four out of its next five, which seems like an extreme longshot at this point, it's probably not going to be enough to jump-start the Longhorns recruiting efforts. Yes, Texas would have some positive momentum that it could sell to recruits, but other teams will easily be able to combat that by pointing out the obvious - that Strong could find himself on the hot seat again in 2017 and the players may only get a single year with the current coaching staff. Basically, the only way for Texas to eliminate those concerns was to remove all doubt about Strong's long-term job stability, and that's pretty much impossible at this point.
Strong and the entire Texas staff have shown that they're as good as anyone at closing recruiting cycles with a flourish, but the challenge this year will be greater than it was in Strong's first two years in Austin.
3. The coaches have to be smart with how they use D'Onta Foreman
As valuable as quarterback Shane Buechele is for the Longhorns, I'm not sure Texas would have much of a shot in any game on the schedule if something was to happen to junior running back D'Onta Foreman. With Chris Warren on the shelf for a few more weeks and possibly the season, Texas desperately needs Foreman to stay healthy because it's pretty clear that the Longhorn offense wouldn't be able to function without him on the field.
In the past three games Texas has been without Warren, Foreman has carried the ball 79 times for 419 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kyle Porter is the only other back to get any work, with the freshman carrying 14 times for 54 yards.
It's a fine line the coaches will have to walk to keep Foreman fresh and healthy, because the drop-off from him to Porter is significant. True freshman Lil'Jordan Humphrey is another player who could get a look, but Foreman is the one known commodity who really makes Texas' offense go.
Foreman slipped to third nationally in rushing yards per game (142.5) but should see his numbers climb with upcoming games against Baylor and Texas Tech. He's averaging over 6 yards per carry every time he touches the ball, finishes runs when there's little daylight to be found and has shown to be an effective receiver in the rare moments when his number is called.
Simply put, Foreman is Texas' best player by a wide margin and the coaches have to find a way to balance out the need to get him touches with the risk of not overusing him. I'm sure the staff would like to limit his carries if at all possible, but the suggestion here is to ride him as much as you have to and just hope for the best, because you're probably not going to win many games without Foreman getting a heavy workload. He's that good, and there's just not a lot behind him to pick up the slack.
TWO QUESTIONS
1. Will we see more personnel changes this week?
The snap distribution for the Longhorns has been tough to figure out this year, especially on defense.
It's been a revolving door of players in the secondary and for whatever reason(s), the coaches have been unable to find a consistent depth chart. At linebacker, we've seen Malik Jefferson's workload decrease over the last couple weeks, and back-ups Edwin Freeman and Time Cole both played pretty well against K-State.
Jefferson, Holton Hill and Davante Davis have been the three biggest disappointments on the team so far in 2016, and their play (or non-play) is a big part of the reason Texas is struggling so much on defense. I have no clue what will happen with the secondary from week to week, but it won't shock me at all to see some more shake-up in the back seven of the defense this week. In fact, I'm already hearing some chatter and expecting it, and yes, that includes some of the bigger names. Keep an eye out for some movement along the offensive line as well.
2. Will those changes matter?
We'll see how things shake out after this week's practices, but there's already word going around among some people close to the team that there is going to be some movement with the team's starters and the number of reps some guys will get.
It makes sense when you think about how some players (or position groups as a whole) have really struggled, but it does raise some questions if significant changes do in fact happen.
First off, why so late? The coaches have had all spring, summer and now seven games of the season to see that there were issues, and to make personnel moves now feels like a bit of desperation. Secondly, how does that look in terms of player development by the coaches if they're having to take some of the team's most highly-touted players off the field due to lack of production?
Maybe some changes on both sides of the ball will help get things pointed somewhere close to the right direction, but I'm just not seeing it. More likely, this is another case of the coaches trying anything they can think of to provide a spark, but it feels like it will probably lead to more of the same.
ONE PREDICTION - D'Onta Foreman goes for more than 150 yards on the ground on Saturday
Baylor's run defense, statistically, is actually pretty solid this year. The Bears rank fifth in the Big 12 in yards given up per game, but they are second in the league in average per rush, yielding just 3.5 yards per carry.
But if you look a little deeper, Baylor can be had on the ground, and the Longhorns should be able to control the ball with Foreman. The Bears shut down Kansas' running game the last time they played, but in each of the three games prior to that (Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Rice) gave up more than 200 rushing yards.
Foreman will be by far the best, most physical back the Baylor defense has faced, and he should be able to wear down Baylor's defense in the second half to put up some very good numbers.
Where this gets a little dicey for Texas is if the Longhorns are playing from behind, especially early. If the Longhorns are having to play catch-up all game, that will certainly cut into Foreman's carries. More than that, if Baylor jumps out to an early lead of a couple scores (or more), I could see this Texas team struggling to put up enough of a fight to make the game competitive. The Longhorns have to start quickly and then ride Foreman's legs if they're going to have any hope.
We take a look at three things we learned over the last week, two questions that are on our mind and one prediction.
It's time for The 3-2-1 ...
THREE THINGS WE LEARNED
1. The rumor mill is going to be working overtime during the next five weeks
If the last couple days are any indication, those of us who cover the Longhorns are going to spend a lot of time chasing down rumors should Texas continue to limp towards the finish line of the 2016 season.
With every additional loss, the cries for change from both fans and media get louder and louder (including some national publications calling for Charlie Strong's firing immediatly after the K-State game), and you're going to hear a lot more from "insiders" who will claim to have knowledge on Strong's job status, or the Longhorns' attempt at securing a new coach.
My advice? Take it all with a big grain of salt.
As an example, rumors began swirling behind the scenes on Monday that Strong had been relieved of his job, which had all of us at Orangebloods frantically working our sources. The initial information came from someone close to the program, and it spilled over to other people with connections to the program who gave very loose confirmations as we began to make calls. About that same time, Benjam Allbright tweeted that Tom Herman to the Longhorns was "all but official," which set off another wave of discussion. It turns out, as expected, all the talk was way premature.
I think most would agree that Strong is facing an uphill battle to save his job. With five games remaining, four of which look extremely tough on paper, Strong needs to start piling up wins consistently, something he has been unable to in his two-and-a-half years in Austin. If he can't do that, more and more rumors are going to come out with each passing week and while things could always change if Texas goes out and gets embarrassed by a team like Baylor, we continue to hear that no final decision on Strong's future is expected be made during the season.
We can all speculate and try to project what is going to happen, but I like to stick to the things I know as factual and let you all put the pieces together however you see fit. What I can tell you, as of Tuesday morning, is that numerous people inside the program have not heard any word on Strong's future. As one key team source told me on Monday while making calls about a couple different rumors, the only thing Strong and the rest of the football staff are worried about right now is trying to find a way to get over the hump and stack some wins on top of one another. Everyone in the program knows what is at stake and hears the rumors, but there has been no actual talk of Strong being replaced. Furthermore, a source on the Houston side of things told me any talk of some back-channel agreement with Herman, as was tweeted on Monday, is completely inaccurate.
Could both of those stories pick up steam in the next few weeks? Of course, but most of what is being said this week has been inaccurate gossip and I'd tread lightly on believing any rumors you read in the coming weeks.
2. Texas is going to have a hard time finishing with an elite recruiting class
Prior to Saturday's game against Kansas State, I was thinking about what the Longhorns needed to do down the stretch to give the program a chance to finish with some recruiting success. The more I thought about it, I realized not only did Texas need to get to eight regular-season wins, but it probably needed to win every game remaining on the schedule (which would have put UT at nine regular-season wins prior to KSU).
Let's just say Strong's magic number of wins to get a fourth year is seven (although eight may be more realistic). Even if Texas wins four out of its next five, which seems like an extreme longshot at this point, it's probably not going to be enough to jump-start the Longhorns recruiting efforts. Yes, Texas would have some positive momentum that it could sell to recruits, but other teams will easily be able to combat that by pointing out the obvious - that Strong could find himself on the hot seat again in 2017 and the players may only get a single year with the current coaching staff. Basically, the only way for Texas to eliminate those concerns was to remove all doubt about Strong's long-term job stability, and that's pretty much impossible at this point.
Strong and the entire Texas staff have shown that they're as good as anyone at closing recruiting cycles with a flourish, but the challenge this year will be greater than it was in Strong's first two years in Austin.
3. The coaches have to be smart with how they use D'Onta Foreman
As valuable as quarterback Shane Buechele is for the Longhorns, I'm not sure Texas would have much of a shot in any game on the schedule if something was to happen to junior running back D'Onta Foreman. With Chris Warren on the shelf for a few more weeks and possibly the season, Texas desperately needs Foreman to stay healthy because it's pretty clear that the Longhorn offense wouldn't be able to function without him on the field.
In the past three games Texas has been without Warren, Foreman has carried the ball 79 times for 419 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kyle Porter is the only other back to get any work, with the freshman carrying 14 times for 54 yards.
It's a fine line the coaches will have to walk to keep Foreman fresh and healthy, because the drop-off from him to Porter is significant. True freshman Lil'Jordan Humphrey is another player who could get a look, but Foreman is the one known commodity who really makes Texas' offense go.
Foreman slipped to third nationally in rushing yards per game (142.5) but should see his numbers climb with upcoming games against Baylor and Texas Tech. He's averaging over 6 yards per carry every time he touches the ball, finishes runs when there's little daylight to be found and has shown to be an effective receiver in the rare moments when his number is called.
Simply put, Foreman is Texas' best player by a wide margin and the coaches have to find a way to balance out the need to get him touches with the risk of not overusing him. I'm sure the staff would like to limit his carries if at all possible, but the suggestion here is to ride him as much as you have to and just hope for the best, because you're probably not going to win many games without Foreman getting a heavy workload. He's that good, and there's just not a lot behind him to pick up the slack.
TWO QUESTIONS
1. Will we see more personnel changes this week?
The snap distribution for the Longhorns has been tough to figure out this year, especially on defense.
It's been a revolving door of players in the secondary and for whatever reason(s), the coaches have been unable to find a consistent depth chart. At linebacker, we've seen Malik Jefferson's workload decrease over the last couple weeks, and back-ups Edwin Freeman and Time Cole both played pretty well against K-State.
Jefferson, Holton Hill and Davante Davis have been the three biggest disappointments on the team so far in 2016, and their play (or non-play) is a big part of the reason Texas is struggling so much on defense. I have no clue what will happen with the secondary from week to week, but it won't shock me at all to see some more shake-up in the back seven of the defense this week. In fact, I'm already hearing some chatter and expecting it, and yes, that includes some of the bigger names. Keep an eye out for some movement along the offensive line as well.
2. Will those changes matter?
We'll see how things shake out after this week's practices, but there's already word going around among some people close to the team that there is going to be some movement with the team's starters and the number of reps some guys will get.
It makes sense when you think about how some players (or position groups as a whole) have really struggled, but it does raise some questions if significant changes do in fact happen.
First off, why so late? The coaches have had all spring, summer and now seven games of the season to see that there were issues, and to make personnel moves now feels like a bit of desperation. Secondly, how does that look in terms of player development by the coaches if they're having to take some of the team's most highly-touted players off the field due to lack of production?
Maybe some changes on both sides of the ball will help get things pointed somewhere close to the right direction, but I'm just not seeing it. More likely, this is another case of the coaches trying anything they can think of to provide a spark, but it feels like it will probably lead to more of the same.
ONE PREDICTION - D'Onta Foreman goes for more than 150 yards on the ground on Saturday
Baylor's run defense, statistically, is actually pretty solid this year. The Bears rank fifth in the Big 12 in yards given up per game, but they are second in the league in average per rush, yielding just 3.5 yards per carry.
But if you look a little deeper, Baylor can be had on the ground, and the Longhorns should be able to control the ball with Foreman. The Bears shut down Kansas' running game the last time they played, but in each of the three games prior to that (Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Rice) gave up more than 200 rushing yards.
Foreman will be by far the best, most physical back the Baylor defense has faced, and he should be able to wear down Baylor's defense in the second half to put up some very good numbers.
Where this gets a little dicey for Texas is if the Longhorns are playing from behind, especially early. If the Longhorns are having to play catch-up all game, that will certainly cut into Foreman's carries. More than that, if Baylor jumps out to an early lead of a couple scores (or more), I could see this Texas team struggling to put up enough of a fight to make the game competitive. The Longhorns have to start quickly and then ride Foreman's legs if they're going to have any hope.
