It was another step back for Texas last week with a tough home loss to West Virginia. Have the Longhorns missed a golden opportunity to re-claim the state? What issues are facing the UT decision-makers when it comes time to evaluate Charlie Strong's future?
We take a look at three things we learned over the last week, two questions that are on our mind and one prediction.
It's time for The 3-2-1 ...
THREE THINGS WE LEARNED
1. Texas hasn't quite gotten over the mediocrity hump
Opinions on this Texas team have been all over the map this year, and it's pretty remarkable to think back about where public perception has been from week to week.
Coming into the year, most realists had Texas winning anywhere from six to eight games. Those viewing things through a burnt orange lens were forecasting 10 wins or more and a run at the conference title.
Following the win over Notre Dame, it felt like the sky was the limit. Hell, I remember talking to a buddy of mine and he was going through the schedule, game by game, and making a case that Texas would have a chance to win all of them and run the table. And you know what, it didn't seem that ridiculous.
Then came a three-game skid, and you had people projecting a 3-7 or 4-8 season, with this week's Kansas game the only contest that some critics were chalking up as a win.
Despite the pretty average performances on a weekly basis, I even bought into the turnaround last week, thinking the odds were pretty good that the Longhorns would win their final three and finish the season with an 8-4 record. It wasn't so much that I believed Texas had taken some monumental strides towards being a good team ... it was more a reflection of my feelings on what I believe are very average West Virginia and TCU teams.
Of course, Texas couldn't maintain whatever momentum it had built up with wins over pretty bad Baylor and Texas Tech teams, and the Longhorns came crashing back to earth with a home loss to WVU. One step forward, two steps back.
Nobody should really be surprised at Texas' inability to get over the hump, considering it's all we've known from this program in the past few years. But it has to hurt the truest of Longhorn fans to repeatedly get roped into believing the Longhorns may have started to turn the corner, only to have Texas slip back to mediocrity again and again. This is what Texas football has become, and it's understandable why it's getting harder and harder for even the most die-hard of fans to muster up some excitement on a weekly basis.
2. Recruiting is pretty much at a standstill, and re-establishing momentum is going to be a tall order
Texas doesn't traditionally do a lot of in-season recruiting under Charlie Strong, so the lack of action over the past couple months isn't exactly reason to throw in the towel on the Longhorns' 2017 recruiting efforts. It's not as if the coaches have completely abandoned their recruiting obligations during the season - most of Texas' top targets still hear from the staff regularly. Things should begin picking up in a couple weeks in terms of visits so the program still has a chance to make some waves, but it's not going to be easy.
It almost feels like anybody who gives Texas a commitment from here on out is going to have to do it because the player just has a love for the Longhorns or UT's academic reputation because there's not much else to sell. It's tough to pitch progress when the team is struggling to get bowl eligible. The UT coaches are tremendous recruiters, but they can't really sell those relationships when recruits are wondering if they'll be around in a few weeks, much less next year.
Charlie Strong and staff have shown over the past couple years that they can close with the best of them, but it's going to be extremely difficult this year. As I said, they could still reel in some guys who just love the University of Texas, but those types are usually the guys who commit early and they're usually not the truly elite-level prospects with unlimited options.
This is such a deep year in the state in terms of high-level talent that Texas really needs to keep some of the top players at home, but it's not going to be easy. The Longhorns recruited exceptionally well last year despite a 5-7 record, but it gets harder to sell the idea of the program turning the corner with each passing year of mediocrity. Texas is going to have to display one hell of a kick down the back stretch, and it feels like UT could be running with a weighted vest on as it approaches the finish line.
3. Neither Texas or Texas A&M wants to take control of the state
Speaking of recruiting and turning programs around, how remarkable is it that neither Texas nor Texas A&M has been able to capitalize on the other's struggles and really seize control of the state? Normally, when one is down, it means the other is enjoying tremendous success, but it's once again looking like a bit of a wasted season for both programs.
Texas' issues have been well-documented all year and there was a time about a month ago that recruits were buzzing behind the scenes about A&M moving up their list. We've seen it with Anthony Hines. Even guys like Marvin Wilson and Walker Little showed some legitimate interest in A&M when the Aggies were flying high. Now, with A&M losing three of its last four (and LSU still on the schedule), the rumors have started swirling that Kevin Sumlin could be in hot water should the Aggies lose on Thanksgiving night.
If either of these programs could actually string together a little more consistent success, it could put itself in position to really take off. It looked like A&M might be positioning itself to do just that, but in typical Aggie fashion, they couldn't capitalize on the tremendous amount of momentum they had built in the first eight weeks of the season, when they were actually in contention for the College Football Playoff.
A&M's class currently ranks No. 9 nationally, but that's mostly based on the number of commitments (23), not the actual star power in the class (In fact, Texas average star ranking is actually quite a bit better than A&M's right now). There are some names on the Aggies' commitment list that Texas flirted with, but truthfully, there's only one player (Grayson Reed) that Texas was actively pushing for a commitment who chose A&M over UT.
Bottom line ... neither Texas nor Texas A&M is doing enough on the recruiting trail to put themselves in the position with the top programs in the nation, and they're both missing out on a golden opportunity while their in-state rival struggles.
TWO QUESTIONS
1. What's the latest with Strong's situation?
Another week, another turn in the road for Strong's chances to stay on past this year. After consecutive wins against Baylor and Texas Tech, most people thought Strong was safe. Now, fresh off a home loss to WVU, all bets are off once again and it's anyone's guess as to how this thing will play out. It's for that reason that I've felt all along that this thing needs to play out through the entire season before any decisions can be made.
Win the next two, and Strong probably has a chance to come back. Lose to TCU, and I just don't see how he can be retained ... there will be far too much pushback from those who want him out.
The next two weeks could be pivotal, but I'm not fully convinced a decision hasn't been made behind the scenes. In fact, that rumor has been floated across my desk a couple times this week. While I'm not buying in just yet that the wheels are already in motion for a coaching change, I'm not completely disregarding the idea either.
Whatever the case - if Strong is retained or let go - the announcement needs to be made swiftly following the end of the regular season. Letting speculation drag on all season hasn't been good for anyone, and it's only going to get worse the minute the TCU game ends. Keep him. Don't keep him. Just announce a decision quickly after the TCU game.
2. Would a Houston loss to Louisville on Thursday impact the decision makers?
If you're one to believe that the Longhorns should target Houston head coach Tom Herman in the event of a coaching change (or if you believe they're already targeting him behind the scenes), this Thursday's game between Houston and Louisville takes on added interest.
Much like the perceptions of Charlie Strong have changed from week to week, the same fate, to some degree, could face Herman this week. Herman was on top of virtually everyone's wish list when the Cougars started the season 5-0, including a win over Oklahoma. A three-game stretch in October where Houston lost to Navy and SMU and narrowly defeated Tulsa had some wondering if Herman was overvalued, only to have Houston bounce back and win its last two.
So what happens if Louisville, which enters Thursday night as a 14-point favorite, puts a pretty good beating on Houston on the Cougars' home turf? The guess is here is that perceptions from a good number of Longhorn fans will once again change. The real question ... would it impact the decision makers at UT and possibly affect their decision on Charlie Strong?
It shouldn't. Guys like Mike Perrin, Greg Fenves and whoever else will be involved in the decision on Strong's future are smart enough to know that one game should not sway their opinions. The only thing they need to look at when making their final call is whether or not Strong is showing enough improvement in his rebuild project, and if they feel he can get Texas to a championship level? If the answers to those questions, in their minds, are yes, they need to keep Strong regardless of who is available. If the answers are no, it's time for a change regardless of what Herman's perceived stock is or regardless of who else may or may not be a potential replacement. Thursday night's outcome shouldn't impact their decision either way.
All that being said, as for fan interest, if I set the over/under on the number of Herman threads on the Inside the Forty Acres board for Thursday night at 30, whatcha got?
ONE PREDICTION - Kansas plays Texas tougher than most are expecting
The Longhorns are a whopping 24-point favorites against a terrible Kansas team on Saturday. I'm not sure I'm buying it.
I'll admit that I have yet to break the match-ups down (looking forward to that) and I really don't know much about Kansas, but this just feels like one of those games where Texas may show up, on the road and just go through the motions. I get the feeling that last weekend's loss really took the wind out of some of the players' sails and we've seen much better Texas teams go to Kansas and struggle (albeit against better KU teams).
The Jayhawks rank 113th on ESPN's Power Index. Kansas' only win this year was in its season-opener against Rhode Island. Kansas is predicted to have just an 8.7 percent chances of winning this game.
The combined record of the five teams Texas has beaten this year is 19-30, and Baylor has proven to be a fraud. The Longhorns struggle on the road. Mentally, I'm not expecting Texas to approach this game with a lot of excitement.
On paper, it shouldn't be close, but I'm not fully convinced it plays out that way.
We take a look at three things we learned over the last week, two questions that are on our mind and one prediction.
It's time for The 3-2-1 ...
THREE THINGS WE LEARNED
1. Texas hasn't quite gotten over the mediocrity hump
Opinions on this Texas team have been all over the map this year, and it's pretty remarkable to think back about where public perception has been from week to week.
Coming into the year, most realists had Texas winning anywhere from six to eight games. Those viewing things through a burnt orange lens were forecasting 10 wins or more and a run at the conference title.
Following the win over Notre Dame, it felt like the sky was the limit. Hell, I remember talking to a buddy of mine and he was going through the schedule, game by game, and making a case that Texas would have a chance to win all of them and run the table. And you know what, it didn't seem that ridiculous.
Then came a three-game skid, and you had people projecting a 3-7 or 4-8 season, with this week's Kansas game the only contest that some critics were chalking up as a win.
Despite the pretty average performances on a weekly basis, I even bought into the turnaround last week, thinking the odds were pretty good that the Longhorns would win their final three and finish the season with an 8-4 record. It wasn't so much that I believed Texas had taken some monumental strides towards being a good team ... it was more a reflection of my feelings on what I believe are very average West Virginia and TCU teams.
Of course, Texas couldn't maintain whatever momentum it had built up with wins over pretty bad Baylor and Texas Tech teams, and the Longhorns came crashing back to earth with a home loss to WVU. One step forward, two steps back.
Nobody should really be surprised at Texas' inability to get over the hump, considering it's all we've known from this program in the past few years. But it has to hurt the truest of Longhorn fans to repeatedly get roped into believing the Longhorns may have started to turn the corner, only to have Texas slip back to mediocrity again and again. This is what Texas football has become, and it's understandable why it's getting harder and harder for even the most die-hard of fans to muster up some excitement on a weekly basis.
2. Recruiting is pretty much at a standstill, and re-establishing momentum is going to be a tall order
Texas doesn't traditionally do a lot of in-season recruiting under Charlie Strong, so the lack of action over the past couple months isn't exactly reason to throw in the towel on the Longhorns' 2017 recruiting efforts. It's not as if the coaches have completely abandoned their recruiting obligations during the season - most of Texas' top targets still hear from the staff regularly. Things should begin picking up in a couple weeks in terms of visits so the program still has a chance to make some waves, but it's not going to be easy.
It almost feels like anybody who gives Texas a commitment from here on out is going to have to do it because the player just has a love for the Longhorns or UT's academic reputation because there's not much else to sell. It's tough to pitch progress when the team is struggling to get bowl eligible. The UT coaches are tremendous recruiters, but they can't really sell those relationships when recruits are wondering if they'll be around in a few weeks, much less next year.
Charlie Strong and staff have shown over the past couple years that they can close with the best of them, but it's going to be extremely difficult this year. As I said, they could still reel in some guys who just love the University of Texas, but those types are usually the guys who commit early and they're usually not the truly elite-level prospects with unlimited options.
This is such a deep year in the state in terms of high-level talent that Texas really needs to keep some of the top players at home, but it's not going to be easy. The Longhorns recruited exceptionally well last year despite a 5-7 record, but it gets harder to sell the idea of the program turning the corner with each passing year of mediocrity. Texas is going to have to display one hell of a kick down the back stretch, and it feels like UT could be running with a weighted vest on as it approaches the finish line.
3. Neither Texas or Texas A&M wants to take control of the state
Speaking of recruiting and turning programs around, how remarkable is it that neither Texas nor Texas A&M has been able to capitalize on the other's struggles and really seize control of the state? Normally, when one is down, it means the other is enjoying tremendous success, but it's once again looking like a bit of a wasted season for both programs.
Texas' issues have been well-documented all year and there was a time about a month ago that recruits were buzzing behind the scenes about A&M moving up their list. We've seen it with Anthony Hines. Even guys like Marvin Wilson and Walker Little showed some legitimate interest in A&M when the Aggies were flying high. Now, with A&M losing three of its last four (and LSU still on the schedule), the rumors have started swirling that Kevin Sumlin could be in hot water should the Aggies lose on Thanksgiving night.
If either of these programs could actually string together a little more consistent success, it could put itself in position to really take off. It looked like A&M might be positioning itself to do just that, but in typical Aggie fashion, they couldn't capitalize on the tremendous amount of momentum they had built in the first eight weeks of the season, when they were actually in contention for the College Football Playoff.
A&M's class currently ranks No. 9 nationally, but that's mostly based on the number of commitments (23), not the actual star power in the class (In fact, Texas average star ranking is actually quite a bit better than A&M's right now). There are some names on the Aggies' commitment list that Texas flirted with, but truthfully, there's only one player (Grayson Reed) that Texas was actively pushing for a commitment who chose A&M over UT.
Bottom line ... neither Texas nor Texas A&M is doing enough on the recruiting trail to put themselves in the position with the top programs in the nation, and they're both missing out on a golden opportunity while their in-state rival struggles.
TWO QUESTIONS
1. What's the latest with Strong's situation?
Another week, another turn in the road for Strong's chances to stay on past this year. After consecutive wins against Baylor and Texas Tech, most people thought Strong was safe. Now, fresh off a home loss to WVU, all bets are off once again and it's anyone's guess as to how this thing will play out. It's for that reason that I've felt all along that this thing needs to play out through the entire season before any decisions can be made.
Win the next two, and Strong probably has a chance to come back. Lose to TCU, and I just don't see how he can be retained ... there will be far too much pushback from those who want him out.
The next two weeks could be pivotal, but I'm not fully convinced a decision hasn't been made behind the scenes. In fact, that rumor has been floated across my desk a couple times this week. While I'm not buying in just yet that the wheels are already in motion for a coaching change, I'm not completely disregarding the idea either.
Whatever the case - if Strong is retained or let go - the announcement needs to be made swiftly following the end of the regular season. Letting speculation drag on all season hasn't been good for anyone, and it's only going to get worse the minute the TCU game ends. Keep him. Don't keep him. Just announce a decision quickly after the TCU game.
2. Would a Houston loss to Louisville on Thursday impact the decision makers?
If you're one to believe that the Longhorns should target Houston head coach Tom Herman in the event of a coaching change (or if you believe they're already targeting him behind the scenes), this Thursday's game between Houston and Louisville takes on added interest.
Much like the perceptions of Charlie Strong have changed from week to week, the same fate, to some degree, could face Herman this week. Herman was on top of virtually everyone's wish list when the Cougars started the season 5-0, including a win over Oklahoma. A three-game stretch in October where Houston lost to Navy and SMU and narrowly defeated Tulsa had some wondering if Herman was overvalued, only to have Houston bounce back and win its last two.
So what happens if Louisville, which enters Thursday night as a 14-point favorite, puts a pretty good beating on Houston on the Cougars' home turf? The guess is here is that perceptions from a good number of Longhorn fans will once again change. The real question ... would it impact the decision makers at UT and possibly affect their decision on Charlie Strong?
It shouldn't. Guys like Mike Perrin, Greg Fenves and whoever else will be involved in the decision on Strong's future are smart enough to know that one game should not sway their opinions. The only thing they need to look at when making their final call is whether or not Strong is showing enough improvement in his rebuild project, and if they feel he can get Texas to a championship level? If the answers to those questions, in their minds, are yes, they need to keep Strong regardless of who is available. If the answers are no, it's time for a change regardless of what Herman's perceived stock is or regardless of who else may or may not be a potential replacement. Thursday night's outcome shouldn't impact their decision either way.
All that being said, as for fan interest, if I set the over/under on the number of Herman threads on the Inside the Forty Acres board for Thursday night at 30, whatcha got?
ONE PREDICTION - Kansas plays Texas tougher than most are expecting
The Longhorns are a whopping 24-point favorites against a terrible Kansas team on Saturday. I'm not sure I'm buying it.
I'll admit that I have yet to break the match-ups down (looking forward to that) and I really don't know much about Kansas, but this just feels like one of those games where Texas may show up, on the road and just go through the motions. I get the feeling that last weekend's loss really took the wind out of some of the players' sails and we've seen much better Texas teams go to Kansas and struggle (albeit against better KU teams).
The Jayhawks rank 113th on ESPN's Power Index. Kansas' only win this year was in its season-opener against Rhode Island. Kansas is predicted to have just an 8.7 percent chances of winning this game.
The combined record of the five teams Texas has beaten this year is 19-30, and Baylor has proven to be a fraud. The Longhorns struggle on the road. Mentally, I'm not expecting Texas to approach this game with a lot of excitement.
On paper, it shouldn't be close, but I'm not fully convinced it plays out that way.
