Photo via HookEm.com
Texas football coach Tom Herman and his staff are facing an uphill recruiting battle.
Herman made the right move by overhauling his staff after last season. His previous coaches were not getting the most out of a talented roster. Texas finished 8-5 last season and did not sustain the momentum generated during a 10-win campaign a year earlier, which was capped off by defeating Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Herman hired defensive coordinator Chris Ash, a guy he won a national championship with at Ohio State. He interviewed several candidates and hired offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich, who learned under Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State. Herman filled out his staff with guys who have a history of developing players.
However, Herman had no clue a pandemic would shut down the world a few months after his hires, and every offseason recruiting event he planned would be canceled. Basically, Herman’s new staff members are trying to establish relationships with players through FaceTime and Zoom meetings. That is admirable, but they are recruiting against coaches who have seen the same players face-to-face, visited key family members, and attended their games. They are basically trying to sell a home virtually, but other programs are selling to clients who saw the house in-person, took pictures, and know the layout.
The Longhorn staff is optimistic a strong start this season could give UT a recruiting boost. My sources believe if Texas plays well in the first five games, that might enough to convince top recruits to join their program. The last time Texas started that strong was in 2009. Texas would need to catch lightning in a bottle. On the outside, it appears to be an impossible task.
Nevertheless, a strong start this season could help Texas finish with an elite recruiting class.
In order to have this conversation, you will need to apply a bit of blind faith. I need you to imagine Texas beginning 5-0 this season. That means defeating USF in the season opener, beating LSU on the road, knocking off UTEP, a win at Kansas State, and defeating Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl. I need you to talk yourself into LSU returning to reality without quarterback Joe Burrow and assistant coach Joe Brady. In addition, tell yourself Lincoln Reily mysteriously lost his amazing ability to coach quarterbacks, and Spencer Rattler will not compete for the Heisman Trophy as a redshirt freshman.
Envision 5-0 for your Longhorns.
Jason hopped on my podcast (Your Drunk Uncle’s Sports Podcast) this week, and I asked if he believed a 5-0 start could help Texas with the 2021 class. He maintained it definitely would help with players who are on the fence, and said the Longhorns could still do damage at 4-1 - if the loss was close. I raised the same topic during our TicketCity podcast, and a prison riot broke out. The only thing missing from a debate that lasted way too long was seeing one of my coworkers get shanked.
It took several hours of original research, but I discovered a fast start has given multiple programs an instant recruiting boost, which was reflected in the class signed immediately after the season. The biggest gains were typically made after the following season.
However, there were instant results, which should give Longhorn fans hope about recruiting.
Here was my approach.
--- I researched every team that started 5-0 over the past five years.
--- I only studied teams that finished with less than 10 wins in the previous season before the 5-0 start next year. Texas was 8-5 last season, making it a fair comparison.
--- I looked up the recruiting rankings for three seasons: how they finished a year before; year the team started 5-0 to gauge the immediate recruiting impact; the ranking a season after winning five straight games.
It is time for us to geek out on numbers.
2019
Top Tier Results (schools comparable to Texas)
Auburn
Year prior to 5-0 start: 12th ranked class (8-5 record)
Year of 5-0: 10th ranked class (9-4 record)
Immediate impact: Only two spots
Current ranking: 8th
Next Tier
Minnesota
Year prior to 5-0 start: 41st (7-6 record)
Year of 5-0: 38th (7-6 record)
Immediate impact: Only three spots
Current ranking: 10th
No Change
Wake Forest
Year prior to 5-0 start: 56th (7-6 record)
Year of 5-0: 60th (8-5 record)
Immediate impact: None
Current ranking: 41st
Memphis
Year prior to 5-0 start: 57th (8-6 record)
Year of 5-0: 71st (12-2 record)
Immediate impact: None
Current ranking: 64th
SMU
Year prior to 5-0 start: 72nd (5-7 record)
Year of 5-0: 94th (10-3 record)
Immediate impact: None
Current ranking: 35th
Penn State
Year prior to 5-0 start: 11th (9-4 record)
Year of 5-0: 14th (11-2 record)
Immediate impact: None
Current ranking: 15th
Baylor
Year prior to 5-0 start: 33rd (7-6 record)
Year of 5-0: 66th (11-3 record)
Immediate impact: None due to Matt Rhule’s departure
Current ranking: 19th
Wisconsin
Year prior to 5-0 start: 27th (8-5 record)
Year of 5-0: 27th (10-4 record)
Immediate impact: None
Current ranking: 20th
2018
Top Tier
LSU
Year prior to 5-0 start: 14th (7-6 record)
Year of 5-0: 3rd (10-3 record)
Immediate impact: Improvement of 11 spots
Following season: 4th (15-0 record)
Next Tier
Colorado
Year prior to 5-0 start: 51st (5-7 record)
Year of 5-0: 45th (5-7 record/yes, lost seven straight)
Immediate impact: Minor improvement of six spots
Following season: 32nd (5-7 record)
North Carolina State
Year prior to 5-0 start: 34th (9-4 record)
Year of 5-0: 28th (9-4 record)
Immediate impact: Minor improvement of six spots
Following season: 42nd (4-8 record)
No Change
West Virginia
Year prior to 5-0 start: 33rd (7-6 record)
Year of 5-0: 46th (8-4 record)
Immediate impact: None due to Dana Holgerson’s departure
Following season (2019): 28th (5-7 record)
Kentucky
Year prior to 5-0 start: 30th (7-6 record)
Year of 5-0: 30th (7-6 record)
Immediate impact: None
Following season: 21st (8-5 record)
--- LSU received eight of its 25 commitments beginning in November, including 4-star running back John Emery (No.2 running back in the country), 4-star defensive tackle Siaka Ika out of Utah, and 4-star athlete Devonta Lee.
2017
Top Tier
Miami
Year prior to 5-0 start: 11th (9-4 record)
Year of 5-0: 6th (10-3 record)
Immediate impact: Improvement of five spots
Following season: 35th (7-6 record)
Georgia
Year prior to 5-0 start: 3rd (8-5 record)
Year of 5-0: 1st (13-2 record)
Immediate impact: Top class in the country
Following season: 1st (11-3 record)
Next Tier
Washington State
Year prior to 5-0 start: 51st (8-5 record)
Year of 5-0: 15th (9-4 record)
Immediate impact: Improvement of 36 spots
Following season: 62nd (11-2 record)
TCU
Year prior to 5-0 start: 41st (6-7 record)
Year of 5-0: 28th (11-3 record)
Immediate impact: Improvement of 13 spots
Following season: 29th (7-6 record)
No Change
UCF
Year prior to 5-0 start: 53rd (6-7 record)
Year of 5-0: 67th (13-0 record)
Immediate impact: None
Following season: 52nd (12-1 record)
Navy
Year prior to 5-0 start: 76th (9-5 record)
Year of 5-0: 91st (7-6 record)
Immediate impact: None
Following season: 78th (3-10 record)
--- Georgia received 17 commitments beginning in October, including 5-star quarterback Justin Fields (Georgia), 5-star defensive end Adam Anderson (Georgia), 5-star running back James Cook (Florida), 5-star defensive end Brenton Cox (Georgia), 5-star offensive lineman Jamaree Salyer (Georgia), 5-star offensive lineman Cade Mays (Tennessee).
--- Washington State received 15 of its 26 commits beginning in October, including Texas 4-star receiver Drue Jackson. Miami received a commitment from Georgia 4-star quarterback Jarren Williams in early December.
2016
Top Tier
Texas A&M
Year prior to 5-0 start: 17th (8-5 record)
Year of 5-0: 10th (8-5 record)
Immediate impact: Improvement of seven spots into top 10
Following season: 16th (7-6 record)
Washington
Year prior to 5-0 start: 37th (7-6 record)
Year of 5-0: 23rd (12-2 record)
Immediate impact: Improvement of 14 spots
Following season: 15th (10-3 record)
Next Tier
Nebraska
Year prior to 5-0 start: 24th (6-7 record)
Year of 5-0: 20th (9-4 record)
Immediate impact: Improvement of four spots
Following season: 24th (4-8 record)
No Change
Tennessee
Year prior to 5-0 start: 15th (9-4 record)
Year of 5-0: 15th (9-4 record)
Immediate impact: None
Following season: 20th (4-8 record)
West Virginia
Year prior to 5-0 start: 38th (8-5 record)
Year of 5-0: 51st (10-3 record)
Immediate impact: None
Following season: 33rd (7-6 record)
Boise State
Year prior to 5-0 start: 28th (9-4 record)
Year of 5-0: 66th (10-3 record)
Immediate impact: None
Following season: 56 (11-3 record)
--- Texas A&M received eight of its 28 commitments beginning in October, including Plano 4-star linebacker Anthony Hines (Rivals Top 100) and Florida WR Jhamon Ausbon (ranked 130th nationally)
2015
Top Tier
Florida
Year prior to 5-0 start: 23rd (7-5 record)
Year of 5-0: 14th (10-4 record)
Immediate impact: Improvement of nine spots
Following season: 9th (9-4 record)
LSU
Year prior to 5-0 start: 8th (8-5 record)
Year of 5-0: 5th (9-3 record)
Immediate impact: Improvement of three spots into top five
Following season: 8th (8-4 record)
Next Tier
Utah
Year prior to 5-0 start: 50th (9-4 record)
Year of 5-0: 33rd (10-3 record)
Immediate impact: Improvement of 17 spots
Following season: 25th (9-4 record)
Houston
Year prior to 5-0 start: 89th (8-5 record)
Year of 5-0: 41st (13-1 record)
Immediate impact: Improvement of 48 spots
Following season: 76th (9-4 record/Herman departed for Texas)
Iowa
Year prior to 5-0 start: 58th (7-6 record)
Year of 5-0: 42nd (12-2 record)
Immediate impact: Improvement of 16 spots
Following season: 40th (8-5 record)
Northwestern
Year prior to 5-0 start: 55th (5-7 record)
Year of 5-0: 46th (10-3 record)
Immediate impact: Improvement of nine spots
Following season: 56th (7-6 record)
Cal
Year prior to 5-0 start: 29th (5-7 record)
Year of 5-0: 27th (8-5 record)
Immediate impact: Improvement of only two spots
Following season: 75th (5-7 record)
No Change
Texas A&M
Year prior to 5-0 start: 10th (8-5 record)
Year of 5-0: 17th (8-5 record)
Immediate impact: None
Following season: 10th (8-5 record)
Oklahoma State
Year prior to 5-0 start: 38th (7-6 record)
Year of 5-0: 45th (10-3 record)
Immediate impact: None
Following season: 36th (10-3 record)
Toledo
Year prior to 5-0 start: 89th (9-4 record)
Year of 5-0: 88th (10-2 record)
Immediate impact: Improvement of only one spot
Following season: 79th (9-4 record)
--- Florida received 12 of its 25 commitments starting in October, including 5-star defensive end Antonneous Clayton (Georgia) and 4-star quarterback Feleipe Franks (Florida)
Basically, there is hope for the Longhorns.
If you look at Ketch’s LSR list, Texas has verbal commitments from defensive end Ja’Tavion Sanders (No. 4), athlete Billy Bowman (No. 5) and dual-threat quarterback Jalen Milroe (No. 7). Meanwhile, there are still several players Texas is currently pursuing.
No. 1 – OT Tommy Brockermeyer
No. 2 – RB Camar Wheaton
No. 6 – G Bryce Foster
No. 9 – T Savion Byrd
No. 10 – DE Shemar Turner
My sources believe many elite players will wait until the regular season to commit. The Longhorns are optimistic a good start in those first five games, coupled with recruits finally being able to meet Herman’s staff in-person, will lead to a strong recruiting finish.
Obviously, Texas will need to handle its business on the field.
However, a strong start this season could help Texas finish with an elite recruiting class.
Photo via USA Today Sports
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Sports On A Dime
1. The Big 12 delivered good news on Friday when after announcing its football teams could begin voluntary workouts on June 15. I checked in with my sources this past week, and nobody expects every player to arrive in Austin prior to that date. The dorms remain closed, which means every Longhorn player will need to live off-campus. For players who have their own apartments, that will be easy to pull off. However, everyone else would need to find a place to stay if they want to be a part of the offseason program. Time will tell how many players return in mid-June.
2. Right now, there are no plans in place to quarantine the football team when they are allowed to perform team activities. There was talk about potentially renting out a hotel for training camp, but the decision-makers decided against that route. That being said, a high-level administrator told me UT is considering having one student in each dorm this semester, and taking over hotels close to campus for the remaining students. I do not know what will eventually occur, but school officials are studying that option. Regardless, the football team will not do anything independent of the student body.
3. Herman is giving his staff this week off to spend time with their family before returning to work on June 1. It is possible this week will be their last vacation until next year.
4. My goal is to obtain a N95 mask before the season opener. Once that happens, I am ready for road games.
5. Greg Brown III has to feel great about his decision to attend Texas. Brown can begin working out with the men’s basketball team on July 15. That means Brown can drive to campus, workout, and go home if the dorms are not open. While other players in his class do not know when they can workout with their teams, Brown has a major advantage.
6. Thank you for the info?
7. Enjoy the greatness of Michael Jordan
8. I grew up as a Knicks fan. To this day, I feel bad for Patrick Ewing
9. Speaking of Ewing, let us hope he has a speedy recovery.
10. Can you believe Sugar Ray Leonard recently turned 64-year-old? We are definitely getting old. By the way, his bout against Wilfred Benetiz featured two undefeated fighters, and Leonard won late in the 15th round by TKO. Leonard would have won the fight if it went to the judges, but this was an impressive win before the first loss of his career against Robert Duran a year later in 1980.
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