Photo via the Houston Chronicle
Texas football coach Tom Herman is definitely winning the offseason.
Just think of all the little things Herman has done to grab national headlines since arriving at Texas. The hydration chart became a huge story, and even ESPN’s Bob Ley wanted to have championship hydration levels and not be viewed as a bad guy. Texas’ new lockers were featured on every major sports network, internet website and sports radio shows because of the eye-catching features Herman designed. Heck, Herman’s wife, Michelle, made headlines of her own this past week after cleverly responding to the Oklahoma assistant coaches who questioned the integrity of her husband.
Speaking of Oklahoma, Herman better have Fernando Lovo, Texas’ chief of staff, open any packages from Norman in the future. Herman snagged a verbal commitment from quarterback Casey Thompson, who lives in Oklahoma. He followed that up by flipping quarterback Cameron Rising from Oklahoma eight days later. Herman completed the trifecta when Oklahoma City defensive end Ron Tatum verbally committed to the Longhorns instead of Stoops a few weeks ago.
One thing none of us know is how Herman’s headlines will translate to wins during the regular season. We are four months away from the season opener against Maryland – man, we need summer to fly by – and most people have a win total number in their head. My number has been eight wins from the start, which I have shared to our community more than once. It seems like a safe number when you consider how bad this program has been the past few years.
However, the more I am around Herman and members of this program, nine or 10 wins might be a reasonable expectation in year one.
Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh might be the last coach who won the offseason and it translated to instant success on the football field. Harbaugh took over in 2015 and instantly grabbed headlines with his satellite camps, and he was unapologetic for treading in the SEC's backyard. Each camp drew national attention, even if most of us cannot escape the image of a shirtless Harbaugh in Alabama.
If you never saw the picture, feel free to join the rest of us in misery.
When it was time to play football, Harbaugh’s team finished 10-3 in 2015, and defeated Florida in the Citrus Bowl. Many coaches complained about Harbaugh camps, while some in the Big Ten were jealous of the attention he received. After that season, Harbaugh’s haters did not have much to say.
That being said, Harbaugh is the exception to what most coaches endure in year one.
Texas fans remember how tough it was for former football coach Charlie Strong to win games in 2014. After an eight-win season under Mack Brown, Texas compiled only six wins under Strong that year. It ended up being his best record at UT.
Last season, there were 28 first-year Division I-A football coaches. Only eight of those coaches finished with a winning record. Six teams finished with six wins, while 14 squads had losing records.
Here is that list:
Chris Ash, Rutgers – 2-10
Dino Barbers, Syracuse – 4-8
Matt Campbell, Iowa State – 3-9
Jason Candle, Toledo – 9-3
Tracy Claeys, Minnesota – 8-4
D.J. Durkin, Maryland – 6-6
Willie Fritz, Tulane – 4-8
Scott Frost, UCF – 6-6
Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech – 9-3
Clay Helton, Southern California – 9-3
Jay Hopson, Southern Miss – 6-6
Mike Jinks, Bowling Green – 4-8
Seth Littrell, North Texas – 5-7
Bronco Mendenhall, Virginia – 2-10
Scottie Montgomery, East Carolina – 3-9
Will Muschamp, South Carolina – 6-6
Mike Neu, Ball State – 4-8
Mike Norvell, Memphis – 8-4
Barry Odom, Missouri – 4-8
Mark Richt, Miami – 8-4
Nick Rolovich, Hawaii – 6-7
Kalanti Sitake, BYU – 8-4
Kirby Smart, Georgia – 7-5
Lovie Smith, Illinois – 3-9
Tyson Summers, Georgia Southern – 4-7
Matt Viator, Louisiana-Monroe – 4-7
Frank Wilson, Texas-San Antonio – 6-6
Everett Withers, Texas State – 2-10
Herman has a good chance to be in the winners circle for first-year coaches in 2017.
Some coaches set the bar low in year one. They talk about the need to build a program. There are usually subtle jabs about the lack of talent at a new school. Coaches will lower expectations and emphasize the need to bring in “their players,” which is a slick way to buy time with a new fan base. When media members ask coaches for an acceptable win total, they tap dance better than Sammy Davis Jr.
If you look at Herman’s past two stops, he did not need a transition year.
When Herman arrived at Ohio State as an offensive coordinator prior to the 2012 season, they inherited a 6-7 team that was a mess under Luke Fickell. Buckeye coach Urban Meyer expressed his disappointment with the offensive line during spring practice. Herman had only one senior on that offensive line and three new starters. Carlos Hyde was still an unproven running back prior to that season. In addition, there were question marks about quarterback Braxton Miller, who had 1,159 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and four interceptions, while adding a team-leading 715 rushing yards and seven touchdowns in 2011.
Ohio State finished 12-0 that season.
Herman inherited an 8-5 Houston team in 2015. He had Greg Ward, a speedy quarterback, and running back Kenneth Farrow, who had over 1,000 rushing yards in 2014. The Coogs did lose their number-one pass catcher from 2014 in Deontay Greenberry (841 receiving yards, six touchdowns, 11.7 yards per catch) but Herman still had a talented group to work with.
Houston finished 13-1 that season.
Herman’s ability to hitting the ground running should give Longhorn fans plenty of optimism about the upcoming season. Sure, it easy for fans to recall tough loses against UCLA and Arkansas in 2014 and take a wait-and-see approach with Herman. It is easy to drink the Kool-Aid in May, but some Longhorn fans have been spitting out their beer on game days for several years, and are rightfully skeptical.
Just know the oddsmakers are not doubting Herman.
Earlier this year, Bovada gave its 2018 National Championship odds. For those who missed it, Texas was given better odds of success than most college teams:
Alabama 4/1
Florida State 7/1
Ohio State 15/2
Michigan 9/1
Oklahoma 9/1
USC 9/1
LSU 12/1
Clemson 16/1
Louisville 16/1
Texas 28/1
Obviously, putting Texas in the national championship discussion right now is going too far. This team has a lot to prove, and Herman’s squad opens up against Maryland, which is reportedly better than last year. It just means oddsmakers are not discounting Herman having an immediate impact.
Herman inherited a talented roster at Texas this year. Left tackle Connor Williams is a future NFL draft pick. Running back Chris Warren III could have an impact if he stays healthy. Shane Buechele started in 12 games last season and could improve in a new offense. Herman previously said this is the most talented group of receivers with which he has worked. Malcolm Roach, Poona Ford and Chris Nelson could have breakthrough season's in Todd Orlando's defense. There is a lot of potential at the linebacker position. Herman absolutely loves defensive back P.J. Locke.
In fact, Herman believes he might have 18 to 19 players who can compete at a Big 12 championship level. The team's biggest weaknesses are right tackle and tight end. There are fewer question marks entering this season than Ohio State had prior to 2012.
So far, Herman is winning the offseason.
It is possible nine or 10 wins are next.
Photo via the Houston Chronicle
Funniest Things You Will See This Week
Moms will definitely appreciate this one
His mom is hiding her head in shame today
For the dog lovers
Sports On A Dime
1. Michelle Herman is a boss. For those who are unfamiliar with Michelle supporting her husband until he made it big, check out this previous story on SI.com. Oklahoma fans may not like her response after their coaches made pretty serious allegations this week, but Longhorn supporters will respect her even more after knowing the Hermans' journey.
https://www.si.com/college-football...ching-star-michelle-herman-provided-stability
2. Tom Herman deserves credit for being in the mix for former Notre Dame quarterback Malik Zaire. It proves he has a pitch players are listening to. That being said, my guess is Zaire may not attend Texas. I honestly have no clue which program he will verbally commit to on Friday, assuming he does not move back his announcement. Buechele is not Colt McCoy, but there are easier paths for him to take. If Zaire has a real chance to attend Harvard, putting up great stats while getting that education makes a lot of sense. No matter what, hopefully the young man will land in a spot where he is happy.
3. Texas defensive coordinator Todd Orlando’s annual salary of $1,090,000 annually is a lot of damn money. However, former Texas defensive coordinator Vance Bedford earned $800,000 a year and was demoted. Orlando’s salary is enough to keep him in Texas until he gets a major job offer. Now, he just needs Texas’ defense to exceed expectations.
4. Introducing Houston Texans running back D’Onta Foreman:
5. Just finish cleaning up the problem, Baylor:
6. Speaking of Baylor, there are two things that immediately came to my mind after reading about Robert Griffin III proposing to his former mistress the day after he got divorced. First, RGIII makes bad decisions on and off-the-field (bro, slow down). Second, what the hell is up with his old man hands?
7. Every member of the Cleveland Browns needs to sprinkle holy water on their body before putting on a uniform. On Saturday, the Browns lost fourth-round draft pick Howard Wilson to a fractured patella, or broken kneecap, an injury that could keep him off the field for his entire rookie season. The best thing about that organization is not being a part of it.
8. Speaking of bad luck, Chicago Bears receiver Kevin White cannot catch a break in the NFL. Check out this Yahoo story:
“In Chicago there has been a series of car thefts that involve a simple scheme. A person whose car is stopped at a light or a sign is bumped from behind. When they get out of the car to assess the damage, someone standing by steals their car.
“That’s what happened to White’s girlfriend, who was driving his white Maserati on Thursday night, according to NBC Chicago. White’s girlfriend was rear-ended at a stop sign in the city’s West Town neighborhood. When she exited to see if there was any damage, two men got in the car and drove off with it.”
9. No matter what happens in the Western Conference Finals, San Antonio had one hell of a season. I am not saying James Harden was paid off, but something is very suspicious about his performance in that final game.
10. This one is for all the boxing fans who read the Pulpit. The Canelo Alvarez-Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. fight last week did at least one million pay-per-view buys, and there are plenty of great fights ahead on the boxing schedule (ironically, the top MMA fighters are making excuses to avoid bouts like boxers once did). Boxing is not all the way back, but our sport is making a comeback.
