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Trespassing in Texas (Can Oregon/Ohio State sustain?)

CodyCarpentier

every like is another Jonathon Brooks rushing yard
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Nov 25, 2023
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Building off of my Recruiting Pipelines column from last week, I wanted to take a look at the opposing side of the room. We know that year after year since Steve Sarkisian took over, Texas has done a better job recruiting in the state of Texas than his predecessors. Signing more Five-Stars in three cycles (7) than Tom Herman and Charlie Strong combined in seven cycles (6). While signing less 5.6 graded and below prospects (5) than Herman signed (12).

As Ketch has mentioned on end about the Blue Chip recruits signed by Texas, one it's a strong barometer for where the program stands, but also the sheer depth of quality talent has risen over the past decade. Since that 2010 recruiting cycle, Texas has never entered a season with more Blue-chip talent on the roster (see below).

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Who is the best at taking the Texas Cornbread?

Top 5 in 2022-2024
1) Texas: 4
2) Texas A&M: 4
3) Georgia: 3
4) Oklahoma: 2
5) Texas Tech: 1
6) Clemson: 1


Top 10 in 2022-2024
1) Texas A&M: 9
2) Texas: 8
3) Georgia: 3
4) Oklahoma: 3
5) LSU: 2

6) Texas Tech: 1
7) Clemson: 1
8) Florida: 1
9) Oregon: 1
10) Alabama: 1

Of the 8 players Texas signed, only Malik Muhammed (7/20), Johntay Cook (6/29), and Collin Simmons (8/10) did so before Winter.
Xavier Filsaime, Kobe Black, Anthony Hill, D.J. Campbell, and Terrence Brooks were all in December and later. Filsaime flipped from Florida on December 18th. Hill decommitted from Texas A&M on November 7th. Brooks flipped from Ohio State on December 15th.


Top 20 in 2022-2024
1) Texas A&M: 14
2) Texas: 13
3) Oklahoma: 5
4) LSU: 4
5) Alabama: 4

6) Georgia: 3
7) Clemson: 3
8) Ohio State: 2
9) Oregon: 2
10) USC: 2
11) Michigan: 1
12) Colorado: 1
13) Missouri: 1
14) Florida: 1
15) Texas Tech: 1
16) Oklahoma State: 1
17) Purdue: 1
18) TCU: 1




Top 5 in 2019-2021
1) Texas A&M: 5
2) Ohio State: 3
3) Oklahoma: 2
4) Alabama: 2

5) Texas: 1
6) TCU: 1
7) LSU: 1


Top 10 in 2019-2021
1) Texas A&M: 8
2) Alabama: 6
3) Ohio State: 4
4) Oklahoma: 3
5) Texas: 2
6) TCU: 2
7) LSU: 2
8) Stanford: 1
9) Georgia: 1
10) Florida: 1

During Tom Herman's tenure at Texas, competing with Jimbo Fisher for the state of Texas proved to be a difficult task, with the Aggies leading the state in the Top 5, 10, and 20 from 2019 through 2021. Herman and staff were still able to secure the secnd most Top 20 recruits from the state behind A&M. Interestingly enough, during this three-year span, the likes of Missouri and Oregon had no success poaching a Top 20 player from the state of Texas. Fast-forward to today, where both are heavily in a lot of conversations with top Texas talents.


Top 20 in 2019-2021

1) Texas A&M: 15
2) Texas: 11
3) Alabama: 7
4) Oklahoma: 6
5) LSU: 5

6
) Ohio State: 4
7) TCU: 3
8) Stanford: 2
9) Florida: 2
10) Georgia: 1
11) Illinois: 1
12) Kansas: 1
13) Arizona: 1

Missouri: 0

Oregon: 0




Top 5 in 2025
1) Oregon: 1
2) Ohio State: 1
3) Undecided: 3


Top 10 in 2025
1) Ohio State: 2
2) Oregon: 2
3) Alabama: 1
4) LSU: 1
5) Undecided: 4
6) Texas: 0
With recent verbal commitments like LaMont Rogers to Missouri, Riley Pettijohn to Ohio State, and Dakorien Moore to Oregon, there is 100% reason to become worried about the top-end talent in the state, however expecting Texas to become boxed out of the Top 5, 10 or 20 is more than unrealistic at the current stage. Over the past six recruiting cycles, Texas and Texas A&M combined for a total of 53 commitments in the Texas Top 20, an average of 8.8 players per cycle for the two schools. 14 in the Top 5. Currently, Texas and Texas A&M have a total of 3 commitments in the Top 20 and 0 in the Top 5.


Top 20 in 2025
1) Ohio State: 2
2) Oregon: 2
3) Texas A&M: 2

4) Alabama: 1
5) LSU: 1
6) Missouri: 1
7) Texas: 1
8) Arizona State: 1
9) Baylor: 1
Undecided: 8



5 Questions to ask ourselves?

1) Do we think Texas is boxed out of the Top 10 entirely?

2) Will Texas flip one or both of Dakorien Moore and Riley Pettijohn?

3) Would you be disappointed in missing out on Moore, if it means Texas receives commitments from both Jaime Ffrench and Kaliq Lockett?

4) Michael Fasusi has a real chance of being a bigger signing for Texas than Dakorien Moore?

5) Can Oregon and Ohio State hold off Texas and Texas A&M for power control in Texas?




Top 20 Futurecast Leaders

3) Michael Fasusi (OT) - 100% Texas; (Mine: Texas)

4) Jonah Williams (S) - 100% Texas A&M; (Mine: Oregon)

5) Ty Haywood (OT) - 100% Alabama; (Mine: Alabama)

7) Andrew Marsh (WR) - 75% Michigan, 25% Texas A&M; (Mine: Michigan)

11) Kaliq Lockett (WR) - 50% Texas, 50% Texas A&M; (Mine: Texas)

13) Michael Terry (ATH) - 67% Texas, 33% Texas A&M; (Mine: Texas)

15) Daylan McCutcheon (WR) - N/A; (Mine: Ohio State)

20) Taz Williams Jr. (WR) - 67% Penn State, 33% Texas A&M; (Mine: Penn State)
 
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