Photo: Brendan Maloney-USA TODAY Sports
At times in sports, the truth about a team or player can turn into an extreme narrative that follows it around like an unfairly labeled bad reputation. Once something about a team is said and said over and over again, it’s often just accepted.
Texas was not good on defense in 2015, especially when you consider Charlie Strong’s pedigree on that side of the football. That’s not up for debate.
However, what’s trailed closely behind Texas heading into the 2016 season is that it was a historically bad defense in 2015. The word “historically” carries the kind of negative energy that rivals a parent screaming for their child by first and middle name; it implies things like "horrendous" and worst in the league and nation.
So, let’s play a little narrative true or false: Was Texas historically bad on defense last year?
False.
The idea that Texas was a historically bad defensively in 2015 is rooted in the usage of general statistics that only tell a limited part of the story on the surface, and can be dispelled by simple math and schedule context.
Sure, if you look at total yardage numbers, the 2015 Texas defense takes a place in the Longhorn history books at the bottom. That’s obviously not good. However, the Longhorn defense was on the field for an average of 80.4 plays per game last season. Part of that is absolutely because it didn’t get off the field like it should, but there are also parts that have to do with the opposition’s style, Texas’ offense, and more factors.
If an offense ran 80.4 plays per game last season, it would rank as the 12th most nationally, and that’s in an era of football where offenses are trying to move quicker, and snap the ball more than ever before. Compare that to the Texas offense, which was on the field for just 65.1 plays per game, on average, in 2015. That ranks 116th most. So the Longhorn defense was on the field, on average, basically 15 more plays per game, and over five minutes more than the offense, which ranked as a worse unit. That’s a lot.
Also consider this: last season's 80.4 plays per game rank as the most ever for a Texas defense.
Take a look at how Texas’ schedule in 2015 ranked in offensive plays per game, per College Football Reference:
Baylor (1st)
Texas Tech (2nd)
TCU (4th)
West Virginia (10th)
Oklahoma (17th)
California (24th)
Iowa State (27th)
Rice (29th)
Oklahoma State (30th)
Kansas (37th)
Kansas State (94th)
Notre Dame (106th)
So 10 of the 12 games Texas played last season were against teams in the top 37 of most offensive plays per game, and averaged 76.7 plays or more. And out of 128 total teams, only five defenses were on the field for more plays per game than Texas.
When a defense faces an offense that goes as fast as possible and snaps the ball more than 70-plus other teams in the country, that defense is going to give up more yards than a vast majority of other defenses; there are going to be more plays in that football game because of the style and tempo. Again, simple math: if Team A is on defense 80 times a game and Team B is on the field 68 plays per game, it’s almost impossible for Team A not to give up more total yards. That alone doesn’t make a defense historically bad, unless one is content on simply labeling the defense without context of what football is in 2015.
Take a look at how Texas ranked in a couple FootballOutsiders.com advanced statistics:
S&P+ Defense – 66th (78th against the run; 20th against the pass)
FEI Defense – 23rd
Both statistics are adjusted for opponent, and one is derived from play-by-play data (S&P+) while the other is drive-based efficiency (FEI), among other factors; that delivers a far more accurate and detailed statistic than just yardage.
Now, look at how Texas’ 2015 schedule ranked in S&P+ Offense and FEI Offense, respectively (sorted by average of the two):
Texas Tech (3rd/7th)
Baylor (2nd/11th)
Notre Dame (8th/6th)
Oklahoma (7th/15th)
Cal (13th/19th)
Oklahoma State (22nd/24th)
TCU (18th/38th)
West Virginia (35th/83rd)
Kansas State (73rd/76th)
Rice (102nd/54th)
Kansas (116th/118th)
Not only did Texas play a lot of teams that snapped the ball on offense more than pretty much everyone else, but it also played just over half of its 2015 schedule, seven teams, that were essentially top 25 offenses when measured more accurately than by just yardage data, which can, as you’re probably realizing by now, be easily skewed.
Even the yardage figures themselves can be examined in a more detailed way.
Texas finished fifth in yards allowed per play in the Big 12, fifth in passing yards allowed per play, and seventh in rushing yards allowed per play with three teams ranking just ahead of its 4.51 average with numbers of 4.4, 4.3 and 4.2.
Again, that’s not good. But it provides context.
Where did Texas rank nationally in yards allowed per play? It ranked 60th out of 128 measured teams. That looks a lot different than simply scanning the bottom of a Texas record book.
So when Texas begins its preseason practice tomorrow, it will need to significantly improve in every area, including defensively. After all, 5-7 is still 5-7, and it’s all about wins and losses. Plus, a defense ranking around 60 in any category isn’t acceptable at Texas, and it certainly doesn’t suggest a defense is good or close to good. The Longhorns can't take a big step forward in 2016 if the defense doesn't produce in a way that greatly changes its 2015 numbers.
However, the narrative that Texas is going to have to improve from being historically bad on defense paints the wrong picture, and doesn’t tell the whole story. Was Texas in 2015 a bad defense? Maybe. An average to below-average defense? Probably. A historically bad defense? No.
