Austin has become 'ground zero' for the downturn of the once-booming property market in
Texas, a housing expert says.
The value of houses in the city are down a 20 percent since their pandemic peak, Nick Gerli, CEO of real estate data platform Reventure App, said.
Meanwhile, he says the number of homes for sale is on the up. When housing supply outweighs demand, prices tend to fall - so values may drop even more.
'Listings are now over 10,000, compared to 7,000 before the pandemic,' he wrote in a
post on social media site X. 'Huge supply.'
The property guru has a grim warning for others in the state: Dallas could be next.
In part due to thriving tech and music industries in the city and low state taxes, Austin has seen an influx of new residents in recent years - a trend which accelerated during the pandemic.
+4
View gallery
Austin has become 'ground zero' for the downturn of the once-booming property market in the state, a housing expert has claimed
Nick Gerli, CEO of real estate data platform Reventure App, said the value of houses in Austin are down almost 20 percent since the pandemic peak
The population of the greater Austin area surged from 1.6 million in 2013 to 2.3 million in 2023, according to
TheStreet.
That is now thought to be in reverse.
The influx of new residents prompted a rush in homebuilding, but demand is now failing to keep pace with supply -
pushing house prices down.
The influx of so many people into Austin also drove up house prices.
After the pandemic, as the number of people looking to move diminished, demand for homes also fell - especially as the city was no longer affordable for many Americans.
While Gerli pointed out Austin is the epicenter of the housing downturn, the problem is also state-wide.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmon...t-real-estate-market.html?ico=related-replace
'Texas housing supply has spiked to highest level since at least 2017,' he wrote on X.
Active listings are up 25 percent year-on-year, he said, 'and a massive 263 percent from the pandemic low.
'Texas is no longer in an inventory shortage. And is now over-supplied.'
Dallas is another market which is starting to get hit, Gerli said, with home values down around three to five percent since pandemic highs.
The Reventure CEO said he believes the reason for the huge rise in homes for sale in Texas is because homebuilders and investors are beginning to 'liquidate out of this market.'
In other words, they are beginning to sell up as they are not earning money on homes due to high property taxes and stagnating rents.
'Builders are needing to do big mark downs to sell houses, which is hurting the resale market,' he added.
It comes after warnings that the Texan condo market - in particular - is
teetering on the edge of a Florida-style crisis as sales decline in major cities.
The population of the wider city of Austin soared from 1.6 million in 2013 to 2.3 million in 2023 (Pictured: Suburb neighborhood of East Austin)
Austin's popularity sparked a surge in homebuilding, but the inventory is not being met by strong demand, experts say
In part due to thriving tech and music industries in the city and low state taxes, Austin has seen an influx of new residents in recent years - a trend which accelerated during the pandemic
Unsold homes are piling up in Austin, Fort Worth and Dallas, as high insurance costs and destructive natural disasters make condos a tough sell,
data from Redfin released earlier this year shows.
It comes as Florida faces a
catastrophic real estate crisis, which is seeing condo listings skyrocket as desperate owners try to flee.
The number of condos for sale in Florida increased by 53 percent in the year to July, according to Redfin.
But the Lone Star State is quickly catching up - with a 42 percent rise in that time.
In Fort Worth, listings have increased 65.4 percent and sales have fallen 33.3 percent.
Meanwhile in Dallas, the number of condos for sale is up 61.7 percent, and in Austin listings have surged by 28.6 percent.
Frequent and intense natural disasters in Texas - as in Florida - are a major factor in surging home insurance costs. In turn, this contributes to
surging HOA fees in condo buildings, as maintenance costs are passed on to unit owners.
Those rising costs, along with the danger of being caught in a natural disaster itself, are scaring off condo buyers and motivating owners to sell, Redfin said.
Texas has been hit by extreme weather this year - including the largest wildfire in the state's history, flooding, tropical storms and
deadly Hurricane Beryl.
Real estate investors have also backed off from buying condos. Instead, those who bought the properties to rent them out a few years ago are now trying to offload them.