Texas suffered a tough loss to Cal on the road last week, and suddenly there are as many questions as answers with this year's Longhorns.
We take a look at three things we learned over the last week, two questions that are on our mind and one prediction.
It's time for The 3-2-1 ...
THREE THINGS WE LEARNED
1. Texas needs to make immediate changes on defense if it hopes to compete in the Big 12
I'm stating the obvious here, but Saturday night's performance was yet another confirmation that the Longhorns have a long way to go on the defensive side of the ball. After shutting down UTEP for most of the game two weeks ago, there was some thought that the UT D may have turned the corner. In hindsight, that performance looks like it was more a result of a terrible UTEP offense (269 total yards against Army last week) than it was any indicator of Texas having made improvements.
There are so many issues and questions with the Texas defense, we could probably fill this entire column with areas of that side of the ball that need to be improved. The truth is, there's plenty of blame to go around. The secondary was atrocious on Saturday night, but the defensive line did little to help things in the way of getting pressure on Davis Webb. Linebackers Malik Jefferson and Anthony Wheeler have been fairly active with their tackle production, but neither has really made any memorable plays through three weeks.
The biggest question, of course, is what changes need to be made in either scheme, personnel or coaching assignments? Most of those questions are for Charlie Strong to decide, but it seems obvious to most that some sort of shake-up needs to take place in all three of those areas. The opponents aren't going to get much easier with conference play about to start up, and the current version of the Texas defense has done nothing to make me think it will be able to make enough plays against some of the high-octane offenses in the Big 12. Significant changes need to be made or it could be another disappointing season for the Longhorns.
The guess here is that we see increased time for some of the program's younger players, in addition to dividing up some of the responsibilities of the defensive coaches. That may not necessarily mean a public declaration of reassigning some of the tasks of a guy like Vance Bedford, but it's hard to fathom that Strong won't make some internal changes behind the scenes.
2. Bedford deserves a lot of blame for the defensive issues, but he's not alone
It's easy to single out Bedford when picking apart the Texas defense's issues. It's his job to coordinate the entire defensive effort, and he's one of the highest-paid assistant coaches in all of college football. Bedford isn't living up to expectations. We all know that. But he's not the only one that needs to shoulder some blame.
If you listen to Bedford, Charlie Strong and even the Texas players, they've all said in the past 72 hours that the schemes are fine, but the execution and communication is lacking. Some of that obviously falls on the players, but isn't it Bedford, Strong and the other coaches' ultimate responsibility to make sure those communication and performance breakdowns don't keep happening?
(Side note ... am I the only one tired of hearing how things are fixable and it's just a matter of execution and fundamentals? It feels like fans have been hearing those same words for years, in all phases, to describe how close Texas is to turning the corner ... only to have the rug pulled out from under them time and time again.)
Ultimately, the buck has to stop with Strong every bit as much as it does Bedford. Strong built his coaching reputation as a defensive expert, and the idea of him having to make significant in-season changes on that side of the ball really does not reflect well on the head coach. For that matter, neither does the continuing revolving door that Strong has seen with his assistants in his brief stint in Austin. Whether or not Strong makes changes to his coaching staff in-season - and I don't expect he will aside from spreading out (or personally absorbing) some of the defensive duties - it should not take so many forced changes in the coaching staff to field an elite staff. Not at Texas.
3. The Big 12 is pretty awful, so there is still plenty of reason for optimism
As much as Saturday night stung for Longhorn fans, there's no need to hit the panic button just yet. Sure, a win would have been nice, but this isn't a team that was going to run the table and claw its way into the College Football Playoff. The more realistic goal is for Texas to win the conference and earn its way to an elite bowl appearance, and those options are still very much on the table.
Only two teams in the conference (Baylor and West Virginia) remain undefeated and for all intents and purposes, the Big 12 has already been eliminated from the College Football Playoffs. In week three. How sad is that?
There will be some tough games ahead for Texas and the Longhorns may very well find themselves in real battles against the likes of Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas Tech, West Virginia and TCU. None of those are anywhere close to sure-fire wins, but the Texas should at least have a shot in all of them, and this year has the feel that the conference champion will have at least one loss. Texas still has as much potential as any team in the Big 12 ... assuming things get better on defense.
TWO QUESTIONS
1. Have the Notre Dame and UTEP wins lost some of their luster?
It sure feels like it.
Nobody was really beating his chest after the Horns handled UTEP with ease, but seeing the Miners go out last week and get demolished by Army to the tune of 66-14, in El Paso, was a bit of an eye-opener.
For all the excitement that was generated in the Longhorns' season-opening overtime win over Notre Dame, the Irish now find themselves at 1-2 on the year after losing at home to Michigan State on Saturday. Notre Dame did claw back to make the game respectable, but MSU bullied the Irish for much of the game (it was 36-7 late in the third quarter) before taking its foot off the gas a little too early.
It's still a very small sample size, so I wouldn't make too much of the predictive analytics, but the Longhorns' "signature win" over Notre Dame looks a little less impressive after three weeks of football.
2. What can Texas do to improve its turnover production?
Through three weeks, the Longhorns rank tied for dead last in FBS with only one turnover gained, a fumble recovery against UTEP. Texas ranks 98th in turnover margin.
They say turnovers usually happen in bunches and while that may be true, it's hard to understand how a team with as much talent as Texas can rank so poorly in this category. To put things in perspective, as bad as the Texas defense was overall last year, it did rank 8th nationally in turnover margin. This year, not only is Texas getting stops, it's not making big plays.
One possible solution is to upgrade the athleticism in the back end by playing some younger guys at safety. That could help, but it could also make the defense even more susceptible to mistakes and blown coverages against some prolific offenses.
More than anything, Texas just needs better play from its front seven. The Longhorns actually rank tied for 11th nationally in sacks with 3.67 per game, but more often than not, opposing quarterbacks have been able to sit in the pocket with little to no pressure. The trio of Naashon Hughes, Breckyn Hager and Malcolm Roach have combined for 7 of the team's 11 sacks. Charles Omenihu is the only "pure" defensive lineman to record a sack, and he has only one.
At some point, Texas needs its elite playmakers - guys like Jefferson and Wheeler - to start making a bigger impact and the defensive backs need to play better overall, but it starts with getting pressure up front and the Longhorns are failing in that area.
One turnover and zero points created off turnovers through three games is downright horrible, and it doesn't bode well for success in conference play if that trend doesn't change immediately.
ONE PREDICTION - The computers are underestimating Texas
Want some sobering projections? According to this week's ESPN Football Power Index, which is described as "a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season" and is based on 10,000 simulations, the Longhorns now rank No. 30 nationally and fifth in the Big 12. According to the FPI, the Longhorns have a 6.6 percent chance of winning the Big 12 and the Texas' odds of running the table in conference games is .3 percent. Call me crazy, but I like the Horns' chances for success more than the ESPN computers. I'm nowhere near close to throwing in the towel in on this team just yet.
We take a look at three things we learned over the last week, two questions that are on our mind and one prediction.
It's time for The 3-2-1 ...
THREE THINGS WE LEARNED
1. Texas needs to make immediate changes on defense if it hopes to compete in the Big 12
I'm stating the obvious here, but Saturday night's performance was yet another confirmation that the Longhorns have a long way to go on the defensive side of the ball. After shutting down UTEP for most of the game two weeks ago, there was some thought that the UT D may have turned the corner. In hindsight, that performance looks like it was more a result of a terrible UTEP offense (269 total yards against Army last week) than it was any indicator of Texas having made improvements.
There are so many issues and questions with the Texas defense, we could probably fill this entire column with areas of that side of the ball that need to be improved. The truth is, there's plenty of blame to go around. The secondary was atrocious on Saturday night, but the defensive line did little to help things in the way of getting pressure on Davis Webb. Linebackers Malik Jefferson and Anthony Wheeler have been fairly active with their tackle production, but neither has really made any memorable plays through three weeks.
The biggest question, of course, is what changes need to be made in either scheme, personnel or coaching assignments? Most of those questions are for Charlie Strong to decide, but it seems obvious to most that some sort of shake-up needs to take place in all three of those areas. The opponents aren't going to get much easier with conference play about to start up, and the current version of the Texas defense has done nothing to make me think it will be able to make enough plays against some of the high-octane offenses in the Big 12. Significant changes need to be made or it could be another disappointing season for the Longhorns.
The guess here is that we see increased time for some of the program's younger players, in addition to dividing up some of the responsibilities of the defensive coaches. That may not necessarily mean a public declaration of reassigning some of the tasks of a guy like Vance Bedford, but it's hard to fathom that Strong won't make some internal changes behind the scenes.
2. Bedford deserves a lot of blame for the defensive issues, but he's not alone
It's easy to single out Bedford when picking apart the Texas defense's issues. It's his job to coordinate the entire defensive effort, and he's one of the highest-paid assistant coaches in all of college football. Bedford isn't living up to expectations. We all know that. But he's not the only one that needs to shoulder some blame.
If you listen to Bedford, Charlie Strong and even the Texas players, they've all said in the past 72 hours that the schemes are fine, but the execution and communication is lacking. Some of that obviously falls on the players, but isn't it Bedford, Strong and the other coaches' ultimate responsibility to make sure those communication and performance breakdowns don't keep happening?
(Side note ... am I the only one tired of hearing how things are fixable and it's just a matter of execution and fundamentals? It feels like fans have been hearing those same words for years, in all phases, to describe how close Texas is to turning the corner ... only to have the rug pulled out from under them time and time again.)
Ultimately, the buck has to stop with Strong every bit as much as it does Bedford. Strong built his coaching reputation as a defensive expert, and the idea of him having to make significant in-season changes on that side of the ball really does not reflect well on the head coach. For that matter, neither does the continuing revolving door that Strong has seen with his assistants in his brief stint in Austin. Whether or not Strong makes changes to his coaching staff in-season - and I don't expect he will aside from spreading out (or personally absorbing) some of the defensive duties - it should not take so many forced changes in the coaching staff to field an elite staff. Not at Texas.
3. The Big 12 is pretty awful, so there is still plenty of reason for optimism
As much as Saturday night stung for Longhorn fans, there's no need to hit the panic button just yet. Sure, a win would have been nice, but this isn't a team that was going to run the table and claw its way into the College Football Playoff. The more realistic goal is for Texas to win the conference and earn its way to an elite bowl appearance, and those options are still very much on the table.
Only two teams in the conference (Baylor and West Virginia) remain undefeated and for all intents and purposes, the Big 12 has already been eliminated from the College Football Playoffs. In week three. How sad is that?
There will be some tough games ahead for Texas and the Longhorns may very well find themselves in real battles against the likes of Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas Tech, West Virginia and TCU. None of those are anywhere close to sure-fire wins, but the Texas should at least have a shot in all of them, and this year has the feel that the conference champion will have at least one loss. Texas still has as much potential as any team in the Big 12 ... assuming things get better on defense.
TWO QUESTIONS
1. Have the Notre Dame and UTEP wins lost some of their luster?
It sure feels like it.
Nobody was really beating his chest after the Horns handled UTEP with ease, but seeing the Miners go out last week and get demolished by Army to the tune of 66-14, in El Paso, was a bit of an eye-opener.
For all the excitement that was generated in the Longhorns' season-opening overtime win over Notre Dame, the Irish now find themselves at 1-2 on the year after losing at home to Michigan State on Saturday. Notre Dame did claw back to make the game respectable, but MSU bullied the Irish for much of the game (it was 36-7 late in the third quarter) before taking its foot off the gas a little too early.
It's still a very small sample size, so I wouldn't make too much of the predictive analytics, but the Longhorns' "signature win" over Notre Dame looks a little less impressive after three weeks of football.
2. What can Texas do to improve its turnover production?
Through three weeks, the Longhorns rank tied for dead last in FBS with only one turnover gained, a fumble recovery against UTEP. Texas ranks 98th in turnover margin.
They say turnovers usually happen in bunches and while that may be true, it's hard to understand how a team with as much talent as Texas can rank so poorly in this category. To put things in perspective, as bad as the Texas defense was overall last year, it did rank 8th nationally in turnover margin. This year, not only is Texas getting stops, it's not making big plays.
One possible solution is to upgrade the athleticism in the back end by playing some younger guys at safety. That could help, but it could also make the defense even more susceptible to mistakes and blown coverages against some prolific offenses.
More than anything, Texas just needs better play from its front seven. The Longhorns actually rank tied for 11th nationally in sacks with 3.67 per game, but more often than not, opposing quarterbacks have been able to sit in the pocket with little to no pressure. The trio of Naashon Hughes, Breckyn Hager and Malcolm Roach have combined for 7 of the team's 11 sacks. Charles Omenihu is the only "pure" defensive lineman to record a sack, and he has only one.
At some point, Texas needs its elite playmakers - guys like Jefferson and Wheeler - to start making a bigger impact and the defensive backs need to play better overall, but it starts with getting pressure up front and the Longhorns are failing in that area.
One turnover and zero points created off turnovers through three games is downright horrible, and it doesn't bode well for success in conference play if that trend doesn't change immediately.
ONE PREDICTION - The computers are underestimating Texas
Want some sobering projections? According to this week's ESPN Football Power Index, which is described as "a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season" and is based on 10,000 simulations, the Longhorns now rank No. 30 nationally and fifth in the Big 12. According to the FPI, the Longhorns have a 6.6 percent chance of winning the Big 12 and the Texas' odds of running the table in conference games is .3 percent. Call me crazy, but I like the Horns' chances for success more than the ESPN computers. I'm nowhere near close to throwing in the towel in on this team just yet.
