LOL: your article is dated 11/26/2020. According to Genevieve Briand, who did the research cited in the article (with numbers from the CDC), she compared data from mid-March, 2020 -mid September 2020:
https://web.archive.org/web/2020112...1/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19
And provisional does not mean it is "just a guess," as the CDC explains.
The AMA article that I linked got its data from the CDC. Here's what the CDC says:
Summary:
What is already known about this topic?
The COVID-19 pandemic caused approximately 375,000 deaths in the United States during 2020.
What is added by this report?
The age-adjusted death rate increased by 15.9% in 2020. Overall death rates were highest among non-Hispanic Black persons and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native persons. COVID-19 was the third leading cause of death, and the COVID-19 death rate was highest among start highlightnon-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native persons.
What are the implications for public health practice?
Provisional death estimates provide an early indication of shifts in mortality trends. Timely and actionable data can guide public health policies and interventions for populations experiencing higher numbers of deaths that are directly or indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.
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CDC’s National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) collects and reports annual mortality statistics using data from U.S. death certificates. Because of the time needed to investigate certain causes of death and to process and review data, final annual mortality data for a given year are typically released 11 months after the end of the calendar year. Daily totals reported by CDC COVID-19 case surveillance are timely but can underestimate numbers of deaths because of incomplete or delayed reporting
. As a result of improvements in timeliness and the pressing need for updated, quality data during the global COVID-19 pandemic, NVSS expanded provisional data releases to produce near real-time U.S. mortality data.* This report presents an overview of provisional U.S. mortality data for 2020, including the first ranking of leading causes of death.
In 2020, approximately 3,358,814 deaths† occurred in the United States. From 2019 to 2020, the estimated age-adjusted death rate increased by 15.9%, from 715.2 to 828.7 deaths per 100,000 population.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm
Provisional does not mean that it is "just a guess" as you claim. It means that it is subject to change as more data comes in. And it may change .. a little. There could be fewer deaths or there could be more, but the final number of deaths is going to be very, very close to what the CDC has already published and what Ahmad and Anderson wrote. We will have the CDC's final numbers in November.
Incidentally, the "independent" Johns Hopkins says that, as of August 28, 638,720 people have died of Coronavirus in the United States:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
Finally, while the article that I linked was published by the AMA, the two authors of the article do not work for the AMA. Rather, they are Farida B. Ahmad of the National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in and Robert Anderson, National Center for Health Statistics, Mortality Statistics Branch, Division of Vital Statistics, Hyattsville, Maryland.
I just emailed Farida Ahmad and asked him how close the final numbers will be for overall deaths in the United States in 2020 will be to what he published in March. I'll post his response.