After breaking recruiting data down to a point that I believe we have consistent analytical metrics to lean on, I was somewhat curious to see what the state of Texas data looked like while taking a walk down memory lane in the process.
So, here's what I did... I made a list of the five-star and high-four star prospects from Rivals since the turn of the decade and put together snapshots of how each player's career has unfolded through the 2017 season.
Why those two categories? Because those two tiers of recruits represent the tiers that develop NFL drafted players at levels that are substantially higher than any other tier to the point that they don't warrant being in the same conversation together.
For instance, based on a three-year average of five-stars from 2012-2014 (the three classes that comprised the 2017 NFL Draft):
* 30-percent of five-star (6.1) prospects were drafted in the first round
* 59.40-percent of five-star (6.1) prospects were drafted in the first three rounds.
* 21.10-percent of high-four star (6.0) prospects were drafted in the first three rounds.
* 83.16-percent of five-star (6.1) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
* 30.47-percent of high-four star (6.0) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
(Note: The numbers on the five-star players were at incredibly high record levels in 2017. The average numbers are typically 15-20 percent lower over seven rounds.)
Without turning you away with too much math, here's a look at how the other tiers broke down over seven rounds so that you can have something to compare the data to.
* 15.79-percent of mid-four star (5.9) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
* 16.03-percent of low-four star (5.8) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
* 8.59-percent of high-three star (5.7) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
* 6.57-percent of mid-three star (5.6) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
* 4.37-percent of low-three star (5.5) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
* 1.69-percent of high-two star (5.4) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
* 1.35-percent of mid-two star (5.3) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
* 1.29-percent of low-two star (5.6) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
So, what did the numbers show?
* From 2010-2014, a total of 12 five-star and 18 high-four star players have completed their college football stories.
* Of that group of 12 five-stars, 50-percent (6) of five-star prospects were drafted, including four (33-percent) that who drafted in the first and seconds rounds of the NFL Draft.
* Of that group of 18 high four-stars, 22-percent (6) of high four-star prospects were drafted.
* A total of four players from the overall 30 ended up not getting drafted, but still were able to carve out NFL careers that included actual game-time.which means that 46.7-percent of the players ended up playing in the NFL.
Ok, now it's time for the fun part.
2017
Five Stars
Marvin Wilson (FSU)
Played in 12 games this season for the Seminoles and recorded seven tackles and 0.5 tackles for loss.
Walker Little (Stanford)
Emerged as a starter at left tackle as a true freshman and was named Co-Pac 12 Newcomer of the Year.
Baron Browning (Ohio State)
Played in 12 games as a true freshman and recorded 14 tackles and 1.5 tackles for loss.
Jeffrey Okudah (Ohio State)
Played in 14 games as a true freshman and recorded 17 tackles.
High Four Stars
Brock Wright (Notre Dame)
Redshirted in 2017.
Austin Deculus (LSU)
Redshirted in 2017.
J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State)
Set a new Ohio State freshman record with 1,403 yards rushing in 2017.
Cedarian Lamb (Oklahoma)
Started 12 games in 2017, recording 741 yards second most and 40 receptions are fifth-most among OU freshmen) and seven touchdowns (tied for the most all-time among OU freshmen).
2016
Five Stars
Gregory Little (Ole Miss)
A second-team All-SEC player as a sophomore in 2017, Little has started 15 of 23 games at Ole Miss at left tackle.
Erick Fowler (Texas)
Recorded 29 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and a sack as a sophomore at Sam Houston State in 2017 after transferring from Texas.
Ed Oliver (Houston)
Consensus All-American and the Outland Trophy winner in 2017.
High Four Stars
Kaden Smith (Stanford)
Caught 23 passes for 414 yards and five touchdowns as a redshirt freshman for the Cardinal in 2017.
Devin Duvernay (Texas)
Caught nine passes for 124 yards this season as a reserve.
Patrick Hudson (Texas)
Missed most of the season with a knee injury that was suffered in reserve duty in game one.
Brandon Bowen (TCU)
Missed the entire 2017 season with a shoulder injury.
Kellen Diesch (Texas A&M)
Made one appearance this season as a redshirt freshman.
2015
Five Stars
Soso Jamabo (UCLA)
Rushed for 446 yards (5.0 yards per carry) and six touchdowns this season as a junior.
Malik Jefferson (Texas)
Earned All-America honors and was the Big 12 Co-Defensive Player of the Year as a junior.
Maea Teuhema (LSU)
A two-year starter for the Tigers, Teuhema was suspended for the LSU program and transferred to Southeastern for the 2017 season. Has announced his plans to declare for the NFL Draft.
High Four Stars
Deionte Thompson (Alabama)
Has emerged as a key back-up for the Tide during his sophomore season, as he's played in every game and has recorded 18 tackles, one tackle for loss (-2) and an interception.
Kendall Sheffield (Alabama)
Played in all 14 games (3 starts) as a sophomore at Ohio State, recording 40 tackles and nine pass break-ups.
Daylon Mack (Texas A&M)
Started one game as a junior, recording 16 tackles, 5.0 tackles for loss, a sack and a forced fumble in 12 games.
DaMarkus Lodge (Ole Miss)
As a junior for Ole Miss, Lodge caught 41 passes for 698 yards and seven touchdowns.
Ronald Jones II (USC)
Earned All-America honors as a junior, as he rushed for 1,550 yards and 19 touchdowns for the Trojans.
2014
Five stars
Myles Garrett (Texas A&M
Earned All-America honors with the Aggies and was the first pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.
Tony Brown (Alabama)
As a senior, Brown has been a vital role player, but has not emerged as a consistent full-time player during his career.
High Four Stars
KD Cannon (Baylor)
A three-time All-Big 12 performer who turned pro following his junior season and wasn't drafted. Still trying to find a full-time job in the NFL.
Solomon Thomas (Stanford)
Earned All-America honors for the Cardinal and the third overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.
Jamal Adams (LSU)
A second-team All-American in 2016, Adams departed LSU early and was the sixth overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.
Demetrius Knox (Ohio State)
Emerged as an eight-game starter for the Buckeyes this season at right guard.
Dylan Sumner-Gardner (Boise State)
Transferred from Boise State after being suspended for academic reasons in 2016. As far as I can tell, he's disappeared off the face of the earth.
Edward Paris (LSU)
Emerged as a starter this season as a senior, but a knee injury caused him to miss all but three games.
Nick Harvey (Texas A&M)
After starting 12 games for the Aggies in 2016, Harvey redshirted in 2017 due to a knee injury.
2013
Five stars
Mike Mitchell (Ohio State)
Didn't make it at Ohio State and transferred to Texas Tech, but eventually made a second transfer to Southeastern. Played in two games as a senior in 2016, recording a mere five tackles.
A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama)
A consensus All-American in 2015 as a junior, Robinson declared early for the NFL and was a second round selection.
High Four-stars
Ricky Seals-Jones (Texas A&M)
Played three seasons for the Aggies and never quite developed into a difference maker. Turned pro following his junior season in 2016 and although he went undrafted, he turned into one of the top rookies in the 2017 class.
Kent Perkins (Texas)
Started 34 games for the Longhorns and was a second-team All-Big 12 selection as a senior. Went undrafted in the 2017 NFL Draft, but is currently on the roster of the Cincinnati Bengals and played one game this season.
Derrick Griffin (Texas A&M)
Transferred to Texas Southern, declared early for the NFL Draft and hasn't really been heard from since.
Keith Ford (Oklahoma)
Transferred from Oklahoma to A&M, where he just finished his senior season, rushing for 493 yards on 122 carries with a team-high 11 TDs
Darius James (Texas)
Transferred from Texas to Auburn and eventually emerged as a multi-year starter for the Tigers at tackle.
Robbie Rhodes (Baylor)
After lasting about five minutes at Baylor, he transferred to Bowling Green, but didn't last there either.
2012
Five stars
Mario Edwards (Florida State)
Was a second-team All-ACC selection as a junior and turned pro following the 2014 season.Was selected in the second round by the Raiders in the 2015 NFL Draft.
Johnathan Gray (Texas)
Made 13 starts as a Longhorn, but two separate Achilles tendon injuries killed any chance he had at emerging into an NFL player.
Trey Williams (Texas A&M)
Williams rushed for 1,343 yards on 204 carries with 18 touchdowns during his career with the Aggies before leaving early for the NFL. Wasn't able to stick with a team in 2015, but has kept battling and actually was active for a game with the Cowboys this season.
Malcom Brown (Texas)
Earned All-America honors as a junior, turned pro early and was a first round pick by the Patriots.
High Four Stars
Thomas Johnson (Texas A&M)
Left college football early due to mental illness and eventually faced murder charges for killing a jogger, but he was deemed unfit to stand trial.
Kendall Sanders (Texas)
Was accused of sexual assault (and later found not guilty) and was dismissed from the Texas program. Transferred to Arkansas State and had a nice senior season in 2016.
Cayleb Jones (Texas)
Transferred from Texas to Arizona after off-field issues and was a solid player for the Wildcats in 2014 and 2015. Has spent some time on NFL practice squads, but has not been on an active roster.
2011
Five-stars
Malcolm Brown (Texas)
Was a second-team All-Big 12 selection in 2013 and has spent the last three seasons with the L.A. Rams.
Trey Metoyer (Oklahoma)
Was dismissed from the Oklahoma program after an indecent exposure charge. Never played college football again.
Brandon Williams (Oklahoma)
Transferred to Texas A&M and played running back for a couple of years before moving to cornerback as a senior. Was drafted in the third round of the 2016 NFL Draft.
High Four-stars
Steve Edmond (Texas)
A three-year starter who played in 49 career games with 34 starts, earned honorable mention All-Big 12 honors three times.
2010
Five-stars
Jackson Jeffcoat (Texas)
Was a consensus All-American in 2013, but injuries hampered him throughout his career. Went undrafted in the NFL, but eventually played with Washington for a couple of years. Is now in the CFL.
Lache Seastrunk (Baylor)
Was an All-Big 12 player in 2013 and departed early for the NFL, where he was drafted in the sixth round by Washington. After bouncing around for a few years on various practice squad, Seastrunk is currently in the CFL.
High-Four Stars
Reggie Wilson (Texas)
Never emerged as a difference-maker for the Longhorns.
Mike Davis (Texas)
David finished his career with 200 receptions for 2,753 yards and 18 touchdowns. Is currently in the CFL.
Tevin Jackson (Texas)
Never emerged as a difference-maker for the Longhorns.
Luke Joeckel (Texas A&M)
Earned All-America honors for the Aggies and was the second overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft.
Darius White (Texas)
Transferred from Texas to Missouri and ended up having a decent career with the Tigers, but never emerged as a difference-maker.
Jake Matthews (Texas A&M)
Earned All-America honors with the Aggies and was the sixth overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft.
So, here's what I did... I made a list of the five-star and high-four star prospects from Rivals since the turn of the decade and put together snapshots of how each player's career has unfolded through the 2017 season.
Why those two categories? Because those two tiers of recruits represent the tiers that develop NFL drafted players at levels that are substantially higher than any other tier to the point that they don't warrant being in the same conversation together.
For instance, based on a three-year average of five-stars from 2012-2014 (the three classes that comprised the 2017 NFL Draft):
* 30-percent of five-star (6.1) prospects were drafted in the first round
* 59.40-percent of five-star (6.1) prospects were drafted in the first three rounds.
* 21.10-percent of high-four star (6.0) prospects were drafted in the first three rounds.
* 83.16-percent of five-star (6.1) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
* 30.47-percent of high-four star (6.0) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
(Note: The numbers on the five-star players were at incredibly high record levels in 2017. The average numbers are typically 15-20 percent lower over seven rounds.)
Without turning you away with too much math, here's a look at how the other tiers broke down over seven rounds so that you can have something to compare the data to.
* 15.79-percent of mid-four star (5.9) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
* 16.03-percent of low-four star (5.8) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
* 8.59-percent of high-three star (5.7) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
* 6.57-percent of mid-three star (5.6) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
* 4.37-percent of low-three star (5.5) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
* 1.69-percent of high-two star (5.4) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
* 1.35-percent of mid-two star (5.3) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
* 1.29-percent of low-two star (5.6) prospects were drafted in one of the seven rounds.
So, what did the numbers show?
* From 2010-2014, a total of 12 five-star and 18 high-four star players have completed their college football stories.
* Of that group of 12 five-stars, 50-percent (6) of five-star prospects were drafted, including four (33-percent) that who drafted in the first and seconds rounds of the NFL Draft.
* Of that group of 18 high four-stars, 22-percent (6) of high four-star prospects were drafted.
* A total of four players from the overall 30 ended up not getting drafted, but still were able to carve out NFL careers that included actual game-time.which means that 46.7-percent of the players ended up playing in the NFL.
Ok, now it's time for the fun part.
2017
Five Stars
Marvin Wilson (FSU)
Played in 12 games this season for the Seminoles and recorded seven tackles and 0.5 tackles for loss.
Walker Little (Stanford)
Emerged as a starter at left tackle as a true freshman and was named Co-Pac 12 Newcomer of the Year.
Baron Browning (Ohio State)
Played in 12 games as a true freshman and recorded 14 tackles and 1.5 tackles for loss.
Jeffrey Okudah (Ohio State)
Played in 14 games as a true freshman and recorded 17 tackles.
High Four Stars
Brock Wright (Notre Dame)
Redshirted in 2017.
Austin Deculus (LSU)
Redshirted in 2017.
J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State)
Set a new Ohio State freshman record with 1,403 yards rushing in 2017.
Cedarian Lamb (Oklahoma)
Started 12 games in 2017, recording 741 yards second most and 40 receptions are fifth-most among OU freshmen) and seven touchdowns (tied for the most all-time among OU freshmen).
2016
Five Stars
Gregory Little (Ole Miss)
A second-team All-SEC player as a sophomore in 2017, Little has started 15 of 23 games at Ole Miss at left tackle.
Erick Fowler (Texas)
Recorded 29 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and a sack as a sophomore at Sam Houston State in 2017 after transferring from Texas.
Ed Oliver (Houston)
Consensus All-American and the Outland Trophy winner in 2017.
High Four Stars
Kaden Smith (Stanford)
Caught 23 passes for 414 yards and five touchdowns as a redshirt freshman for the Cardinal in 2017.
Devin Duvernay (Texas)
Caught nine passes for 124 yards this season as a reserve.
Patrick Hudson (Texas)
Missed most of the season with a knee injury that was suffered in reserve duty in game one.
Brandon Bowen (TCU)
Missed the entire 2017 season with a shoulder injury.
Kellen Diesch (Texas A&M)
Made one appearance this season as a redshirt freshman.
2015
Five Stars
Soso Jamabo (UCLA)
Rushed for 446 yards (5.0 yards per carry) and six touchdowns this season as a junior.
Malik Jefferson (Texas)
Earned All-America honors and was the Big 12 Co-Defensive Player of the Year as a junior.
Maea Teuhema (LSU)
A two-year starter for the Tigers, Teuhema was suspended for the LSU program and transferred to Southeastern for the 2017 season. Has announced his plans to declare for the NFL Draft.
High Four Stars
Deionte Thompson (Alabama)
Has emerged as a key back-up for the Tide during his sophomore season, as he's played in every game and has recorded 18 tackles, one tackle for loss (-2) and an interception.
Kendall Sheffield (Alabama)
Played in all 14 games (3 starts) as a sophomore at Ohio State, recording 40 tackles and nine pass break-ups.
Daylon Mack (Texas A&M)
Started one game as a junior, recording 16 tackles, 5.0 tackles for loss, a sack and a forced fumble in 12 games.
DaMarkus Lodge (Ole Miss)
As a junior for Ole Miss, Lodge caught 41 passes for 698 yards and seven touchdowns.
Ronald Jones II (USC)
Earned All-America honors as a junior, as he rushed for 1,550 yards and 19 touchdowns for the Trojans.
2014
Five stars
Myles Garrett (Texas A&M
Earned All-America honors with the Aggies and was the first pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.
Tony Brown (Alabama)
As a senior, Brown has been a vital role player, but has not emerged as a consistent full-time player during his career.
High Four Stars
KD Cannon (Baylor)
A three-time All-Big 12 performer who turned pro following his junior season and wasn't drafted. Still trying to find a full-time job in the NFL.
Solomon Thomas (Stanford)
Earned All-America honors for the Cardinal and the third overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.
Jamal Adams (LSU)
A second-team All-American in 2016, Adams departed LSU early and was the sixth overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.
Demetrius Knox (Ohio State)
Emerged as an eight-game starter for the Buckeyes this season at right guard.
Dylan Sumner-Gardner (Boise State)
Transferred from Boise State after being suspended for academic reasons in 2016. As far as I can tell, he's disappeared off the face of the earth.
Edward Paris (LSU)
Emerged as a starter this season as a senior, but a knee injury caused him to miss all but three games.
Nick Harvey (Texas A&M)
After starting 12 games for the Aggies in 2016, Harvey redshirted in 2017 due to a knee injury.
2013
Five stars
Mike Mitchell (Ohio State)
Didn't make it at Ohio State and transferred to Texas Tech, but eventually made a second transfer to Southeastern. Played in two games as a senior in 2016, recording a mere five tackles.
A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama)
A consensus All-American in 2015 as a junior, Robinson declared early for the NFL and was a second round selection.
High Four-stars
Ricky Seals-Jones (Texas A&M)
Played three seasons for the Aggies and never quite developed into a difference maker. Turned pro following his junior season in 2016 and although he went undrafted, he turned into one of the top rookies in the 2017 class.
Kent Perkins (Texas)
Started 34 games for the Longhorns and was a second-team All-Big 12 selection as a senior. Went undrafted in the 2017 NFL Draft, but is currently on the roster of the Cincinnati Bengals and played one game this season.
Derrick Griffin (Texas A&M)
Transferred to Texas Southern, declared early for the NFL Draft and hasn't really been heard from since.
Keith Ford (Oklahoma)
Transferred from Oklahoma to A&M, where he just finished his senior season, rushing for 493 yards on 122 carries with a team-high 11 TDs
Darius James (Texas)
Transferred from Texas to Auburn and eventually emerged as a multi-year starter for the Tigers at tackle.
Robbie Rhodes (Baylor)
After lasting about five minutes at Baylor, he transferred to Bowling Green, but didn't last there either.
2012
Five stars
Mario Edwards (Florida State)
Was a second-team All-ACC selection as a junior and turned pro following the 2014 season.Was selected in the second round by the Raiders in the 2015 NFL Draft.
Johnathan Gray (Texas)
Made 13 starts as a Longhorn, but two separate Achilles tendon injuries killed any chance he had at emerging into an NFL player.
Trey Williams (Texas A&M)
Williams rushed for 1,343 yards on 204 carries with 18 touchdowns during his career with the Aggies before leaving early for the NFL. Wasn't able to stick with a team in 2015, but has kept battling and actually was active for a game with the Cowboys this season.
Malcom Brown (Texas)
Earned All-America honors as a junior, turned pro early and was a first round pick by the Patriots.
High Four Stars
Thomas Johnson (Texas A&M)
Left college football early due to mental illness and eventually faced murder charges for killing a jogger, but he was deemed unfit to stand trial.
Kendall Sanders (Texas)
Was accused of sexual assault (and later found not guilty) and was dismissed from the Texas program. Transferred to Arkansas State and had a nice senior season in 2016.
Cayleb Jones (Texas)
Transferred from Texas to Arizona after off-field issues and was a solid player for the Wildcats in 2014 and 2015. Has spent some time on NFL practice squads, but has not been on an active roster.
2011
Five-stars
Malcolm Brown (Texas)
Was a second-team All-Big 12 selection in 2013 and has spent the last three seasons with the L.A. Rams.
Trey Metoyer (Oklahoma)
Was dismissed from the Oklahoma program after an indecent exposure charge. Never played college football again.
Brandon Williams (Oklahoma)
Transferred to Texas A&M and played running back for a couple of years before moving to cornerback as a senior. Was drafted in the third round of the 2016 NFL Draft.
High Four-stars
Steve Edmond (Texas)
A three-year starter who played in 49 career games with 34 starts, earned honorable mention All-Big 12 honors three times.
2010
Five-stars
Jackson Jeffcoat (Texas)
Was a consensus All-American in 2013, but injuries hampered him throughout his career. Went undrafted in the NFL, but eventually played with Washington for a couple of years. Is now in the CFL.
Lache Seastrunk (Baylor)
Was an All-Big 12 player in 2013 and departed early for the NFL, where he was drafted in the sixth round by Washington. After bouncing around for a few years on various practice squad, Seastrunk is currently in the CFL.
High-Four Stars
Reggie Wilson (Texas)
Never emerged as a difference-maker for the Longhorns.
Mike Davis (Texas)
David finished his career with 200 receptions for 2,753 yards and 18 touchdowns. Is currently in the CFL.
Tevin Jackson (Texas)
Never emerged as a difference-maker for the Longhorns.
Luke Joeckel (Texas A&M)
Earned All-America honors for the Aggies and was the second overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft.
Darius White (Texas)
Transferred from Texas to Missouri and ended up having a decent career with the Tigers, but never emerged as a difference-maker.
Jake Matthews (Texas A&M)
Earned All-America honors with the Aggies and was the sixth overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft.
