CFB Playoffs

[speedstrength]

I believe the most undefeated teams at the end of the season has been 3. Alabama, Clemson and ND in 2018 so I don't expect us to have 4 this year.

Remaining Schedules

Georgia - Ole Miss, Tennessee, GA Tech and most likely Bama
Michigan - Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State and most likely Iowa
Ohio State - Mi State, Minnesota, Michigan and most likely Iowa
FSU - Miami, North Alabama, Florida and most likely Louisville
Washington - Utah, Oregon State, Washington State and Most Likely Oregon
Oregon - USC, Arizona State, Oregon State and most likely Washington
Texas - TCU, Iowa State, Tech and most likely OkSU

Dark Horse - Bama - Kentucky, UT Chattanooga, Auburn and Georgia.

So we have the easiest remaining slate followed by FSU and Bama. The problem is we don't have any really big match ups coming up and this is a beauty contest.

I am not even sure Georgia makes it through the next two weeks without dropping a game and I honestly think Bama has a really good shot of taking them down in the championship game thus creating chaos. As you can see we need several teams in front of us to lose. Ohio State, Michigan, Bama, Oregon, with one loss get in ahead of us. We are defiantly in the conversation but need multiple teams ahead of us to lose.

 

[2300 Nueces]

I believe the most undefeated teams at the end of the season has been 3. Alabama, Clemson and ND in 2018 so I don't expect us to have 4 this year.

Remaining Schedules

Georgia - Ole Miss, Tennessee, GA Tech and most likely Bama
Michigan - Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State and most likely Iowa
Ohio State - Mi State, Minnesota, Michigan and most likely Iowa
FSU - Miami, North Alabama, Florida and most likely Louisville
Washington - Utah, Oregon State, Washington State and Most Likely Oregon
Oregon - USC, Arizona State, Oregon State and most likely Washington
Texas - TCU, Iowa State, Tech and most likely OkSU

Dark Horse - Bama - Kentucky, UT Chattanooga, Auburn and Georgia.

So we have the easiest remaining slate followed by FSU and Bama. The problem is we don't have any really big match ups coming up and this is a beauty contest.

I am not even sure Georgia makes it through the next two weeks without dropping a game and I honestly think Bama has a really good shot of taking them down in the championship game thus creating chaos. As you can see we need several teams in front of us to lose. Ohio State, Michigan, Bama, Oregon, with one loss get in ahead of us. We are defiantly in the conversation but need multiple teams ahead of us to lose.

Good job. Excellent analysis. I don't know that I would like to see Texas against a team that can throw the ball in the playoff. Our secondary outside Ryan Watts, stinks. While this team may be our best bet to win a National Championship in some time, I don't think the results would be good in the playoff. Texas has played 3 complete games under Sark in 3 years, Tceh '21, OU '22, and Bama '23.

I am concerned about next year. We lose a lot of talent and are potentially filling those holes with less experienced dudes. We step up in competition so Sark is going to have to go heavy portal to add experienced depth at QB, RB, WR, TE, DE, DT, LB, and Safety. So I do agree with Polly, enjoy this while it lasts even if it's not the mountaintop. All Sark has to do is look at TCU. The fans at TCU want Dykes fired yesterday and he went to the NT game last year. Sark better not think he has the time to let players develop in today's game. He has to get old at as many positions as possible next year. ONE BIG THING TO MONITOR, Sark's contract runs through 2026 and he hasn't been extended. If we extend him after this season, there is a strong likelihood he will go soft in the offseason and we get killed next year, just like Sonny Dykes did. We have to stay aggressive and infuse rigorous competition every offseason. We can't let these top recruits feel entitled.

I think there is going to be significant draft and portal turnover on this team after the season. It's going to make our heads spin.

Get Bean from Kansas! That dude would win the Heisman at Texas. At the moment Murphy and Arch are too wet behind the ears. They need more time on the scout team. Neither is a good option next year unless you want to be Clempson. Clemson and dare I say it, aggy, are our future unless we are aggressive in the portal at adding talented experienced players across the board.

 

[KChorn11]

If we make the playoff I don’t even care who we play or what happens to be honest. It will mean we won 12 games, have the best season in 15 years, and real momentum in building this program. Whatever happens in the playoff is gravy

 

[2300 Nueces]

If we make the playoff I don’t even care who we play or what happens to be honest. It will mean we won 12 games, have the best season in 15 years, and real momentum in building this program. Whatever happens in the playoff is gravy

TCU's loss to Georgia did them no favors.

 

[diadevic]

I believe the most undefeated teams at the end of the season has been 3. Alabama, Clemson and ND in 2018 so I don't expect us to have 4 this year.

Remaining Schedules

Georgia - Ole Miss, Tennessee, GA Tech and most likely Bama
Michigan - Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State and most likely Iowa
Ohio State - Mi State, Minnesota, Michigan and most likely Iowa
FSU - Miami, North Alabama, Florida and most likely Louisville
Washington - Utah, Oregon State, Washington State and Most Likely Oregon
Oregon - USC, Arizona State, Oregon State and most likely Washington
Texas - TCU, Iowa State, Tech and most likely OkSU

Dark Horse - Bama - Kentucky, UT Chattanooga, Auburn and Georgia.

So we have the easiest remaining slate followed by FSU and Bama. The problem is we don't have any really big match ups coming up and this is a beauty contest.

I am not even sure Georgia makes it through the next two weeks without dropping a game and I honestly think Bama has a really good shot of taking them down in the championship game thus creating chaos. As you can see we need several teams in front of us to lose. Ohio State, Michigan, Bama, Oregon, with one loss get in ahead of us. We are defiantly in the conversation but need multiple teams ahead of us to lose.

Assuming no upsets along the way ...

Winner of tOSU and Michigan = in.
Undefeated Fla State = in.
Winner of Washington/Oregon. Washington = in, Oregon is currently ahead of UT in rankings, so a tentative in.
Alabama/Georgia. Georgia = in. BUT - if Bama beats Georgia ---- do you really think they will leave the SEC out of the playoff, even though UT beat Bama head to head?

 

[KChorn11]

TCU's loss to Georgia did them no favors.

Lol. Losing to Georgia has absolutely nothing to do with this year…. Do you enjoy just making stuff up?

 

[2300 Nueces]

Lol. Losing to Georgia has absolutely nothing to do with this year…. Do you enjoy just making stuff up?

65-7 made TCU look like they didn't belong. It's tough to overcome that in recruiting 4 and 5 star guys.

 

[KChorn11]

65-7 made TCU look like they didn't belong. It's tough to overcome that in recruiting 4 and 5 star guys.

TCU wasn’t getting 4-5 star guys even had they had beat UGA

Their 2022 class finished 9th in the conference. Their 2023 class is 21st in the country and their 2024 class in 33rd in the country.

That kind of is what TCU is. They bought lighting in a bottle with a group of guys. The loss to UGA didn’t hurt their recruiting. Their recruiting is what it is.

 

[outhereincali]

I believe the most undefeated teams at the end of the season has been 3. Alabama, Clemson and ND in 2018 so I don't expect us to have 4 this year.

Remaining Schedules

Georgia - Ole Miss, Tennessee, GA Tech and most likely Bama
Michigan - Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State and most likely Iowa
Ohio State - Mi State, Minnesota, Michigan and most likely Iowa
FSU - Miami, North Alabama, Florida and most likely Louisville
Washington - Utah, Oregon State, Washington State and Most Likely Oregon
Oregon - USC, Arizona State, Oregon State and most likely Washington
Texas - TCU, Iowa State, Tech and most likely OkSU

Dark Horse - Bama - Kentucky, UT Chattanooga, Auburn and Georgia.

So we have the easiest remaining slate followed by FSU and Bama. The problem is we don't have any really big match ups coming up and this is a beauty contest.

I am not even sure Georgia makes it through the next two weeks without dropping a game and I honestly think Bama has a really good shot of taking them down in the championship game thus creating chaos. As you can see we need several teams in front of us to lose. Ohio State, Michigan, Bama, Oregon, with one loss get in ahead of us. We are defiantly in the conversation but need multiple teams ahead of us to lose.

I like your assessment. I think you're a Florida State guy and with all due respect I worry they'll get in the playoffs thru the back door when they haven't played anyone. That LSU win doesn't look so good now. We'll see. My biggest worry is that Ohio State and Michigan will make the playoffs again. I mean with the exception of Penn State the rest of the Big X is just plain lousy.

Oklahoma State has a golden schedule this year. I knew they were playing all the new schools. And now the last 3 games are UCF, Houston, and BYU. They're certain to be in the Big XII title game. The next 2 games are going to be a dog fight for the horns were on the road in both games.

And the Pac XII is going out in style not just Washington and Oregon. Oregon State, Utah, and now Arizona are moving up. Lots of great matchups. Washington has the Heisman front runner and Bo Nix has a chance to be invited.

And no matter what we're still 8/1 and ranked 7th.

 

[outhereincali]

And Georgia hasn't blown anyone out the way they have the late couple of years. Their best player, Brock Bowers, is out for the season.

 

[KChorn11]

The PAC 12 could beat it self out of the playoff. Utah is capable of beating Washington next week, and USC despite not having a defense could beat Oregon.

Btw USC fired their DC this afternoon

 

[outhereincali]

The PAC 12 could beat it self out of the playoff. Utah is capable of beating Washington next week, and USC despite not having a defense could beat Oregon.

Btw USC fired their DC this afternoon

I told you that in another thread you and I were on it before anyone else 😊. After he lost to Texas a few years ago he fired Mike Stoops and replaced with Ruffin McNeal who improved the defense enough for them to win the Big XII. He was an interim coach and he replaced him with Grinch.

 

[2300 Nueces]

TCU wasn’t getting 4-5 star guys even had they had beat UGA

Their 2022 class finished 9th in the conference. Their 2023 class is 21st in the country and their 2024 class in 33rd in the country.

That kind of is what TCU is. They bought lighting in a bottle with a group of guys. The loss to UGA didn’t hurt their recruiting. Their recruiting is what it is.

Not according to Bobby Burton and Gerry Hamilton. They both have said on many occasions that the loss to Georgia hurt their recruiting.

 

[outhereincali]

Not according to Bobby Burton and Gerry Hamilton. They both have said on many occasions that the loss to Georgia hurt their recruiting.

Well they did have their highest rated recruiting class ever last year I think they finished 18th. But here's the thing. Warren Roberson was a TCU commit he decommitted to Texas on signing day. All their success especially against Texas, being in the title game and still Texas beat them out.

 

[KChorn11]

Not according to Bobby Burton and Gerry Hamilton. They both have said on many occasions that the loss to Georgia hurt their recruiting.

Yeah. Well evidence doesn’t back that up.

And if Texas played any of the top 4 they wouldn’t get blown out the way TCU did. They may lose but wouldn’t get embarrassed

 

[speedstrength]

Yeah. Well evidence doesn’t back that up.

And if Texas played any of the top 4 they wouldn’t get blown out the way TCU did. They may lose but wouldn’t get embarrassed

OSU WR vs our DBs. MM at QB. Maybe not TCU bad but we just aren't there.

 

[KChorn11]

OSU WR vs our DBs. MM at QB. Maybe not TCU bad but we just aren't there.

Ohio state has a lot of talent, but they aren’t exactly rolling people. And Maalik wouldn’t be at QB in that game.

 

[westx]

The PAC 12 could beat it self out of the playoff. Utah is capable of beating Washington next week, and USC despite not having a defense could beat Oregon.

Btw USC fired their DC this afternoon

Washington and Oregon are the real deal. They are both good enough for the CFP. Utah is a distant 3rd in the PAC

 

[KChorn11]

Washington and Oregon are the real deal. They are both good enough for the CFP. Utah is a distant 3rd in the PAC

Don’t disagree but Utah is very capable of beating Washington, and hell USC could fool around and beat Oregon.

 

[Hoookem722]

Good job. Excellent analysis. I don't know that I would like to see Texas against a team that can throw the ball in the playoff. Our secondary outside Ryan Watts, stinks. While this team may be our best bet to win a National Championship in some time, I don't think the results would be good in the playoff. Texas has played 3 complete games under Sark in 3 years, Tceh '21, OU '22, and Bama '23.

I am concerned about next year. We lose a lot of talent and are potentially filling those holes with less experienced dudes. We step up in competition so Sark is going to have to go heavy portal to add experienced depth at QB, RB, WR, TE, DE, DT, LB, and Safety. So I do agree with Polly, enjoy this while it lasts even if it's not the mountaintop. All Sark has to do is look at TCU. The fans at TCU want Dykes fired yesterday and he went to the NT game last year. Sark better not think he has the time to let players develop in today's game. He has to get old at as many positions as possible next year. ONE BIG THING TO MONITOR, Sark's contract runs through 2026 and he hasn't been extended. If we extend him after this season, there is a strong likelihood he will go soft in the offseason and we get killed next year, just like Sonny Dykes did. We have to stay aggressive and infuse rigorous competition every offseason. We can't let these top recruits feel entitled.

I think there is going to be significant draft and portal turnover on this team after the season. It's going to make our heads spin.

Get Bean from Kansas! That dude would win the Heisman at Texas. At the moment Murphy and Arch are too wet behind the ears. They need more time on the scout team. Neither is a good option next year unless you want to be Clempson. Clemson and dare I say it, aggy, are our future unless we are aggressive in the portal at adding talented experienced players across the board.

Bean is a 5th year senior. He has no eligibility after this year.

 

[Hoookem722]

If we win out and win the conference then i'm about 95% sure we get in. I can only see there being maybe 2 undefeated teams being left after it's all said and done.

 

[westx]

Here is my CFP prediction: Seeds1-4
1: Michigan wins out
2: UW wins out
3: FSU wins out
4: Bama wins out

I am proud of the Longhorns, but too many things to overcome to make the CFP. Loss to ou and a rs-freshman backup QB.

Can you imagine the controversy if Texas wins out and the top 4 above win out? Either Texas will get shafted even with a head to head loss and lack of style points or Bama and the mighty SEC will have no representation in the CFP. Michigan is a wild card due to the scandal, but would that mean the B10 has nobody in the show? But, I don’t think anybody would mind that because you have to win your conference title. Nonetheless, It would still create tons of chaos if the above 4 and Texas win out.

What do you guys think?

 

[diadevic]

Here is my CFP prediction: Seeds1-4
1: Michigan wins out
2: UW wins out
3: FSU wins out
4: Bama wins out

I am proud of the Longhorns, but too many things to overcome to make the CFP. Loss to ou and a rs-freshman backup QB.

Can you imagine the controversy if Texas wins out and the top 4 above win out? Either Texas will get shafted even with a head to head loss and lack of style points or Bama and the mighty SEC will have no representation in the CFP. Michigan is a wild card due to the scandal, but would that mean the B10 has nobody in the show? But, I don’t think anybody would mind that because you have to win your conference title. Nonetheless, It would still create tons of chaos if the above 4 and Texas win out.

What do you guys think?

This goes back to the BU/TCU imbroglio from 10 years ago. All of the talking heads try to analyze a hundred factors, but at the end of the day, they are trying to figure who the best 4 teams are. Between UT and Alabama -- it has been settled. If not, then there is no reason to ever play a game. Just pick the 4 teams in August and go straight to the playoffs. And if that means no SEC team is in the Final 4 - that would be crazy, but that's their problem.

 

[Drtxhorn]

Here is my CFP prediction: Seeds1-4
1: Michigan wins out
2: UW wins out
3: FSU wins out
4: Bama wins out

I am proud of the Longhorns, but too many things to overcome to make the CFP. Loss to ou and a rs-freshman backup QB.

Can you imagine the controversy if Texas wins out and the top 4 above win out? Either Texas will get shafted even with a head to head loss and lack of style points or Bama and the mighty SEC will have no representation in the CFP. Michigan is a wild card due to the scandal, but would that mean the B10 has nobody in the show? But, I don’t think anybody would mind that because you have to win your conference title. Nonetheless, It would still create tons of chaos if the above 4 and Texas win out.

What do you guys think?

I believe if the SEC and Big 12 champs get in if they have no more than 1 loss. If Bama wins the SEC and Texas wins the B12, both teams are in the playoffs.

 

[outhereincali]

We're playing so sloppy on offense right now I don't see us making the playoffs. But damn it sure feels nice to be be in the running.

 

[clob94]

Bean is a 5th year senior. He has no eligibility after this year.

Covid year?

 

[KChorn11]

We're playing so sloppy on offense right now I don't see us making the playoffs. But damn it sure feels nice to be be in the running.

We’ve got a backup QB who has never played. If anything the fact that we’re winning right now is going to look more favorably in the committees eyes

 

[westx]

I believe if the SEC and Big 12 champs get in if they have no more than 1 loss. If Bama wins the SEC and Texas wins the B12, both teams are in the playoffs.

I hate this more than anybody, but this never would have happened if those numbskulls would have increased the playoff teams sooner. My setup was that my first 3 seeds are P5 teams that would end up with zero losses, which makes it an almost certainty they are in. This would leave a potential dilemma for the 4th spot. This happened to Texas in 2008 with the head to head victory over ou meaning diddly squat. I am not in favor of any of this, but it is worth thinking through because it has a decent chance of happening.

Pros for Texas:
Texas would be 12-1, B12 Champs and a head to head victory over bama.

Pros for Bama:
Bama would be 12-1, SEC Champs

I think Bama would get the nod because:
*They would theoretically have a 4-1 record over current ranked teams vs Texas's 2-1.
*They are closing the season very strong with convincing wins/scores over the current ranked teams.

 

[diadevic]

I hate this more than anybody, but this never would have happened if those numbskulls would have increased the playoff teams sooner. My setup was that my first 3 seeds are P5 teams that would end up with zero losses, which makes it an almost certainty they are in. This would leave a potential dilemma for the 4th spot. This happened to Texas in 2008 with the head to head victory over ou meaning diddly squat. I am not in favor of any of this, but it is worth thinking through because it has a decent chance of happening.

Pros for Texas:
Texas would be 12-1, B12 Champs and a head to head victory over bama.

Pros for Bama:
Bama would be 12-1, SEC Champs

I think Bama would get the nod because:
*They would theoretically have a 4-1 record over current ranked teams vs Texas's 2-1.
*They are closing the season very strong with convincing wins/scores over the current ranked teams.

I've never recovered from the TCU/Baylor debacle a decade ago. Baylor beat TCU head to head. But the TCU argument -- made by non TCU media - was that TCU's loss was better than Baylor's loss. Go figure.

 

[oldhorn2]

I've never recovered from the TCU/Baylor debacle a decade ago. Baylor beat TCU head to head. But the TCU argument -- made by non TCU media - was that TCU's loss was better than Baylor's loss. Go figure.

Easily solved...just ask aggy

They have a whole department dedicated to explaining quality losses