Donny's Out of his Element, but Dustin's 9 Dude-abiding thoughts are not... (The Big 12 and the NFL Draft)
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Happy to say this week's column is again brought to you by The Timothy Center. The father-son duo of Doctors Jimmy and Josh Myers, both big Longhorn fans, are doing some great counseling work in the Austin area, especially during such a trying time mentally for many as we all are dealing with a global pandemic.
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Drs. Jimmy & Josh Myers are the father/son owners of The Timothy Center here in Austin. Both are rabid UT fans, and both could use counseling themselves due to all the stress that this love of the Horns has generated.
The Timothy Center is unique in that it is the only Christian counseling facility in the Austin area that provides one-on-one counseling, couples therapy, an Intensive Outpatient programs for those teens and adults needing more concentrated help, medication management services, and one of the largest sexual addiction treatment programs in the central Texas area.
Another aspect of the Timothy Center is that all of these services are covered by most major insurance policies. Faith-based counseling, faith-based medication management, all covered by insurance is as rare in this area as an undefeated season by…well, you get the idea.
We have offices in south Austin, north near the outlet mall between Round Rock and Georgetown, and our main office about a mile north of the Arboretum on Jollyville Rd. Of course, right now, with the pandemic still raging, all of our adult services can be accessed in an online format.
If you should ever need our services, just give us a call at our main number 512-331-2700 or check out our website at www.timothycenter.com.
Alright, the writing...
1) The Big 12 and the NFL Draft
By the end of the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft the Big 12 turned into the chief target of Twitter comedians. The media does its best to become jokesters and NFL general managers by the end of the first round. “Tulsa and North Dakota State had more first-round picks than the entire Big 12!!!!!” Yep, that happened. Sadly, I just shrugged my shoulders. I wasn’t surprised.
The good part about each NFL Draft is it makes it more difficult for ignorant people to push back on the idea that stars and recruiting don’t matter. Sure, there will always be guys who end up at smaller schools and blow up for a variety of reasons. But you’re blind or being purposely obtuse if you look at draft results and ignore the data on five and four-star prospects. The SEC, for the 15th-straight year, led all conferences with NFL Draft picks. Here’s a hint: the SEC has been recruiting better than every conference for well over a decade.
I’m in a hint-giving mood today. Here’s another: while the Big 12 is going to have first-round picks in the future (duh), it isn’t ever going to match how many draft picks leagues like the SEC and Big Ten are producing. Well, let’s not go that far and just say it isn’t going to happen anytime soon. Why? There isn’t a single thing about programs like Oklahoma State, TCU, Iowa State and Baylor that suggests they’re going to suddenly start recruiting much better and producing more NFL players than they already do.
Heck, look at the draft picks Oklahoma State had this past season and look at its season results. Mike Gundy accepts Oklahoma State isn’t ever going to recruit any better, is totally comfortable with it and it’s why his ceiling as a coach is 10 wins with the occasional great season. Since he joined the Big 12, Gary Patterson has finished ranked three times and unranked six times. He might be a great evaluator, but he’s not going to finish in the top 10 of recruiting class rankings.
As good of a coach as Matt Campbell is, Iowa State isn’t going to soon reel in a bunch of Rivals250 players and the same goes for Baylor even if Dave Aranda turns into a good coach because that would mean he’ll probably just leave for another job. West Virginia has quietly elevated its recruiting profile some, but its recruiting potential is never going to be in the same league as Texas and Oklahoma. And who the hell knows about the Kansas schools and Texas Tech?
All these programs and coaches could turn into developmental machines, but even that wouldn’t match the other programs across the country reeling in elite prospects each year as the same teams keep going to the college football playoff over and over and over again. This is the Big 12. It’s not going to change. Kansas State and Iowa State aren’t going to suddenly relocate their campuses and Gundy and Patterson aren’t going to become elite recruiters overnight.
2) Texas’ part in all this…
Yeah, I’m going to get to Texas in all this. The league has been begging Texas for years to turn the conference into a two-team race, but Texas hasn’t been able to recruit and develop well enough to make it happen. Perhaps the league is more inviting now than ever if Texas can start recruiting at an elite level. Frankly, that’s all it will take. Seriously.
If the Longhorns sign a few elite recruiting classes and develop at merely an above average rate, they’ll often have such a noticeable talent advantage over the rest of the league it would be difficult not to win 10 games each season. And I’m not talking about something like UT’s 2019 class. Texas needs to sign the types of class Oregon, LSU, Georgia Clemson and Texas A&M did last season - multiple five-star prospects and an average star rating near 4.00.
From what I’ve seen thus far in a very small sample and what I know about this coaching staff, I think the developmental part of the equation will happen at an above average or better rate. As for recruiting...
3) What will recruiting look like?
We’re about to find out. Texas is off to a strong start in 2022, but this new coaching staff hasn’t yet been able to use one of its best weapons - visits. With the announcement from the NCAA all Division 1 sports will return to regular recruiting calendars beginning June 1, buckle up for madness. Good luck keeping track of all the college visits prospects take.
The lack of in-person recruiting leveled the recruiting playing field some. Now, the big boys in college football get to flex their recruiting muscle again. There aren’t many places in the country that can match Texas on a visit and especially an official visit, perhaps the most impactful tool in recruiting. Texas loaded up its coaching staff with solid or better recruiters. Now, they’ll soon be able to use all of Texas’ resources to their advantage.
From what I’ve heard about Steve Sarkisian, he has a gift for quickly establishing strong relationships with players and his genuine, down-to-earth personality resonates well. However, it’s been resonating well over Zoom. Frankly, I’m freaking sick of Zoom. I bet college coaches and recruits are too. Beginning in June and throughout the fall, we’ll get a true indication of how good this staff could be in recruiting.
And if it’s what Sarkisian, Chris Del Conte, Jay Hartzell and Kevin Eltife think it will become, Texas might finally be able to take advantage of a league that’s recruiting and NFL Draft success often turns into a joke. Texas bet on Sarkisian because it knows college football is all about getting players.
4) The hoops portal…
Business will continue to boom in the NCAA Transfer Portal for college basketball. Lately, the mentions of Texas contacting available transfers has declined from what felt like every single good player in the portal. After talking to people around the sport and in the industry, I’m not expecting the amount of good players entering the portal to decline anytime soon. While the Longhorns have plenty of spots still to fill, don’t expect them to begin taking players just to fill spots.
5) Texas Baseball postseason resume
The Longhorns lost their first series of the season, but their resume remains in good shape with an opportunity to receive a massive boost with a successful weekend in Fort Worth. If you want a couple of teams to root for, Nevada and Kansas are your best options because they have a chance to become Q1 wins for Texas if they finish the season strong.
Record - 36-11 (13-5)
RPI - 6
SOS - 27
Conference standing - 2nd
Q1 (top 50 opponents) - 8-7
Q2 (top 51-100 opponents) - 7-2
Q3 (101-150) - 7-0
Q4 (151-200) - 14-2
6) Really looking forward to covering teams when the world is normal again…
Hopefully, this current Texas Baseball season will be the last season I cover during COVID-19 protocols. That would mean the world is getting back to normal and beating the disease, which would obviously be fantastic news. On a more personal level, covering multiple teams as a beat writer without any face-to-face interaction with coaches or players creates a bit of a disconnect and a tiring, monotonous drag through seasons. Frankly, I don’t feel like I know the teams as well as I do turing typical, normal times and I miss those in-person interactions for a multitude of reasons. If I never participate in another Zoom interview session again, I won’t miss it for a single second.
What separates actual beat writers/reporters from the rest are those face-to-face interactions that afford us opportunities to develop working relationships and get the best, most authentic information to our readers. For example, under normal circumstances there’s no way we would have just now found out about Ty Madden’s blister because we would have noticed it during postgame interviews. Those interactions also afford us valuable off-the-record time with coaches and players to help us better understand our subjects and shape our writing. And if I’m being completely honest, it really adds some pep to my step and makes me feel a part of the fabric of the sport and its stories as opposed to watching from afar.
Make no mistake, I’m not complaining about Texas putting COVID protocols in place. It absolutely should. Rather, I’m nearing the end of another baseball season, and long grind of basically at least one basketball or baseball game every week and weekend since November and realizing perhaps the best, most impactful part of the job has been gone for over a year.
7) Scanning the rest of the sports globe…
--- The Aaron Rodgers story in Green Bay will be fascinating to watch unfold for a variety of reasons, but I find it especially interesting because there have been hints over the last couple years NFL quarterbacks could begin to wield the type of power NBA superstars do. If James Harden or Anthony Davis want to leave their current teams, they can; their contract status is almost meaningless. Are NFL quarterbacks slowing inching their way to acquiring that type of control over who they play for? Maybe.
--- Remember when the Los Angeles Dodgers entered the season with too much starting pitching? Dustin May will undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery, a crushing blow to my fantasy teams and my top breakout pick for the season. David Pierce is hurt. Tony Gonsolin is coming back from being hurt. Clayton Kershaw left his start after an inning yesterday and after looking invincible to begin the season, the Dodgers have been very ordinary for weeks now.
Meanwhile, the Padres, currently tied with the Dodgers for second in the division, continue to trot Dinelson Lamet out to the mound while his velocity and results strongly suggest he needs surgery. Adrian Morejon is out for the season. Ryan Weathers is trying to pitch through some discomfort. Chris Paddack is out too.
There is no such thing as too much starting pitching.
--- Since rejoining the lineup, Rangers outfielder/designated hitter Willie Calhoun is hitting .316/.381/.491 across 63 plate appearances with three homers. He’s hitting the ball to all parts of the field, is walking more and striking out less. I’ve been a huge fan since I saw him in person years ago in Round Rock and I’m all-in on the breakout season. The Rangers seem to be too because he’s starting often against lefties, and hammered a homer off lefty reliever Taylor Rogers yesterday.
--- In Houston, Yuli Gurriel continues to tell Father Time he’s going to have to wait. For most of his Astros career, Gurriel produced by putting the ball in play a ton; he hardly ever walked and also had one of the best strikeout rates in baseball. In his age-36 season, Gurriel is suddenly walking more than ever before and he’s done it by cutting his chase rate substantially, which is allowing him to hit the ball harder more consistently. Some wondered why the Astros extended Gurriel, but he’s making them look incredibly smart right now.
--- I don’t know if those Manchester United fans are going to get their wish, but I do know many of them are probably going to end up banned from Old Trafford and prosecuted. Fans rioted and cancelled a Premier League game. Think about that for a second. They were able to get onto the pitch and cause enough chaos to cancel a match between two of the biggest names in the sport in the most popular league in the world. That’s incredible. Buffalo Bills fans might tailgate to the extreme and jump through flaming tables. But they have nothing on European soccer fans.
8) Anything and everything…
--- In honor of Cinco De Mayo, a few of my favorite margaritas in Austin: Taco Flats (spicy frozen), Enchiladas y Mas (house frozen… two of them will knock you on your ass quicker than a 1988 punch from Mike Tyson), Guero’s (house frozen), Eldorado (house on the rocks or any of them), El Alma (Chilanga/any of them).
--- Jack is battling his first tough bout with diaper rash after a little stomach bug, but he’s a future spokesperson for Boudreaux’s Butt Paste, apparently.
New bone for Willie, but same negotiations in the game room.
--- Watched the first episode of The Mighty Ducks: Game Changers and I enjoyed it. It’s not going to blow you away with an amazing story, but I kind of get a little Ted Lasso vibe from the feel-good moments and acting.
---
--- Listened to The Moody Blues’ “Days of Future Passed” album start to finish for the first time. What a trip. I now understand why critics consider it one of the most important albums of its era.
9) The best thing I read this week is from… The New York Times: How Long Can We Live?
So with a lead talking about how well the SEC has been recruiting for a decade, why is there not a single word about how much the SEC has been paying recruits to come there?
Clearly Ole miss and Miss St don’t have more money or more donors with more money than Texas, right? And clearly there have been years where they have recruited better (cough, 5 5 star recruits one year)? And clearly they (the SEC) have been caught more than once?
So why do I not see a single piece of writing talking about the recruiting differences meaning money directly being paid?
Just stop with the “it’s a mystery how the SEC is recruiting better than everybody else” and “why can’t the Big12 recruit like that” bullchit. It gets old, and it’s pointless blathering that isn’t talking about the truth.
or is it your opinion that they aren’t paying signing bonuses, and it’s all on the up and up?
@Ketchum @Anwar Richardson @Suchomel @Alex Dunlap
Those are basically jet fuel and would be undrinkable if they weren't frozen. I have a couple of memories from drinking those bad boys in college.
I think you almost have to sort margaritas into two categories, frozen and not frozen.
For the not frozen list, I would submit the Trudy's Mexican Martini. Either it's very, very good, or I'm romanticizing the hell out of my memories of drinking them.
I remember Cedar Door having damn good Mexican Martinis too I think.
For the not frozen list, I would submit the Trudy's Mexican Martini. Either it's very, very good, or I'm romanticizing the hell out of my memories of drinking them.
I remember Cedar Door having damn good Mexican Martinis too I think.
a) I never said Ole Miss or Miss. State have more money donors than Texas nor did I ever imply Texas can recruit like the best of the best. The writing was about the other programs in the Big 12 besides OU.
b) You must have read a different column because I didn't write about it being a mystery how the SEC recruits well and why can't the Big 12 recruit like that. I suppose you're convinced everyone is cheating in the SEC and the recruiting practices are only limited to the SEC? And I'm not sure what you think that means for a Texas staff that hired a head coach from Alabama and a bunch of SEC assistants.
yeah, we had to get a special compound made for a new paste. It wasn't cheap.
Texas isn't the issue with the recruiting disparity, although it needs to be better. The issue is Iowa State, TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, West Virginia and Baylor. Call it whatever the heck you want, but when have those programs ever proven to be able to recruit at a high level?
Never said who was doing what (or that it was limited to specific programs).
what I am starting to get tired of is the idea or implication that this is something it isn’t. There have been about 20 instances where it was clear SEC programs have basically been indicted in these things. Yet nobody does anything or even writes anything.
And yes, in your story the lead was about how the SEC had dominated recruiting for about 10 years. But with no mention whatsoever about all the smoke and even fire (ole miss getting clearly caught paying players at the time of the 5 or more 5*’s they got).
It just gets old. It’s like watching a match where the refs are completely one sided and nobody says a thing and a predetermined result is somehow valid.
Are you saying that everybody is throwing bags of cash at these recruits but Texas is just not spending enough? If so I find that hard to believe.
Is it just not in ANYBODIES interest to bring this to light? Because nobody is even looking. They just keep closing the curtain and telling everybody to ignore the man behind the curtain.
This might be one of the first things I don't agree with you on. I think it's pretty much a margarita without ice, but served with an olive.
People just don't want to here the truth. Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, Kansas, Kansas St are not in the same league. We should be ashamed we aren't dominating this conference. We should be concerned about two games a year. The Red River and the championship. That's it. TCU should not be a concern. Tech shouldn't be going to overtime. We are in a Mickey Mouse conference and we play like it. I'm sick of it. I see light at the end of the tunnel finally but I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid this year.
the conference is begging for Texas and OU to turn it into a two-team league every single year.
Would have benefited the NFL greatly to adjust the salary cap by position so that no one position group could take up more than X % of the salary cap.
It remains shocking to me that the NFL does not use QB camps/QB training more given the lack of #s of QB in the league.
2 other points, there is nor has been ZERO wrong with TEXAS' recruiting. . .even at their weakest spot, the OL.
There have been massive problems with development.
Frozen margaritas? You hit 7-11 for a slushie and dumped tequila into it?????
zero wrong with Texas recruiting? Sounds like you hit the 7-11 slushie machine with the tequila early
Texas being clearly behind the likes of Ohio State, Clemson, Alabama, Georgia and others in recruiting is plainfully obvious on Saturday and in the NFL Draft. It's easier to develop guys when you deal with more really, really good ones and it's not a coincidence Texas' best player is a five-star prospect.
zero wrong with Texas recruiting? Sounds like you hit the 7-11 slushie machine with the tequila early
Well if our recruiting is a problem then I'd say Rivals isn't very good at their job. And I hate the way rivals only uses total points, when you look at average star rankings (quality over quantity) TEXAS actually does very well. 3.6 to 3.7 the bottom of "good class" range.
Here are our last classes working backward:
#14 3.41 Ave star rannking
#14 3.6 (actually a damn good class just smaller)
#4
#4
#31. . .stinker (CFS to Mensa transition year)
#11
#12
#20
#24 3.6 again, quality but smallish class
# 2
#3
Last 2 Mack's last 2 full years
So looking a bit further, TEXAS' problem has not been quality of recruits, I'd wager our average is about equal of anyone not in the "usual suspects" of the Top 5. . ..Bama Dawgs Clemson tOSU. . . ???? Not even sure who #5 would be
At no time in the last 10 years has TEXAS not enjoyed a talent advantage (often a serious one) over every opponent not named OU and we are close to OU in talent.
OTOH, our lack of turning said talent into NFL quality players speaks to a lack of coaching and a lack of development.
IMHO of course. .. . . .now time to turn in my man card and enjoy a slushie with some Margarittaville Tequila.
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