Yes, there's some glut. But Patterson went after sacred cows like meals for coaches and the SID.
Football
- Thread starter q1w2e3
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They’ve never gone to every road game - only the ones in state and whatever major OOC road game is on the schedule (tOSU, USC, etc.). When I worked with LHB, we would go to aTm, TT, BU and Dallas. Not cheap, but these were hardly extravagant trips for the students (box lunches and rarely an overnight stay). And often a few BMDs would fit the bill.
Not even a drop in the bucket for the athletic budget.
This will be an interesting year. I look for the WR's to be the strongest group follow by the DB's. Also, look at the TE position to be a lot better. QB should be better but every year we say that. I think the LB's will be good. Don't be surprised if Gary Johnson becomes one of the best at his position in the country. Issue position is the kicking game and returner as well. We haven't done well since Shipley
I think the success of this season will be determined by how much the offense can improve. I think the defense will still be at least solid, possibly great again. However, the offense has been bad. Very bad.
When I looked into the stats of the offense it was alarming. Texas' OFEI rating (offensive efficiency index: offensive efficiency adjusted for strength of opponents) was #117 in the country out of 130 teams. The only Big 12 team behind Texas was Kansas. The only other power five teams behind Texas were Kansas and Illinois. By the way, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State finished #1 and #2 respectively in those rankings.
For reference, the year before last in Strong's last season with the Giblet offense Texas finished #85 out of 130 and was also second to last in the Big 12 only ahead of Kansas. However, Herman's team lost the three best OL from that 2016 team, all three NFL caliber players including both the left and right tackle: Connor Williams, Brandon Hodges, and Kent Perkins. In addition he lost the Doak Walker award wining 2000 yard rusher in D. Foreman. Strong also had the stability of the same QB starting all 12 games.
So how much improvement could be reasonably expected in year two with Herman? By the way, before some of ya'll start screaming about Tim Beck and the play calling, don't forget Tom Herman called the plays in the bowl game and the offense was just as bad or worse. Only 280 yards of total offense, 3.94 yards per play which was lower than the season average of 5.15 (which was second to last in the Big 12). Only 113 rushing yards on 42 carries at 2.7 yards/attempt.
I think there will be some improvement with play calling and personnel packages regardless of who is calling the plays, but I think there is way more to story with the offensive development. Before injuries I expect at least marginal improvement form all six OL positions when including the TE. The same with both starting QB's returning especially with Sam having been a true freshman. Also, improvement with the RB position. The two main guys from last season, Young and Carter were both true freshman and you add in the Cal transfer and Ingram. WR should be fine. And I'm hoping the addition of OL coach Hand adds a boost to the horrid OL.
Despite all that we are still talking about what was the 3rd worst power 5 offense last year.
When I looked into the stats of the offense it was alarming. Texas' OFEI rating (offensive efficiency index: offensive efficiency adjusted for strength of opponents) was #117 in the country out of 130 teams. The only Big 12 team behind Texas was Kansas. The only other power five teams behind Texas were Kansas and Illinois. By the way, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State finished #1 and #2 respectively in those rankings.
For reference, the year before last in Strong's last season with the Giblet offense Texas finished #85 out of 130 and was also second to last in the Big 12 only ahead of Kansas. However, Herman's team lost the three best OL from that 2016 team, all three NFL caliber players including both the left and right tackle: Connor Williams, Brandon Hodges, and Kent Perkins. In addition he lost the Doak Walker award wining 2000 yard rusher in D. Foreman. Strong also had the stability of the same QB starting all 12 games.
So how much improvement could be reasonably expected in year two with Herman? By the way, before some of ya'll start screaming about Tim Beck and the play calling, don't forget Tom Herman called the plays in the bowl game and the offense was just as bad or worse. Only 280 yards of total offense, 3.94 yards per play which was lower than the season average of 5.15 (which was second to last in the Big 12). Only 113 rushing yards on 42 carries at 2.7 yards/attempt.
I think there will be some improvement with play calling and personnel packages regardless of who is calling the plays, but I think there is way more to story with the offensive development. Before injuries I expect at least marginal improvement form all six OL positions when including the TE. The same with both starting QB's returning especially with Sam having been a true freshman. Also, improvement with the RB position. The two main guys from last season, Young and Carter were both true freshman and you add in the Cal transfer and Ingram. WR should be fine. And I'm hoping the addition of OL coach Hand adds a boost to the horrid OL.
Despite all that we are still talking about what was the 3rd worst power 5 offense last year.
BTW, Texas' Defensive Efficiency Index ranking last season was #6 in the country only behind Georgia, Auburn, Wisconsin, Alabama, and Clemson. TCU was second in the Big 12 at #18.
Texas' 2016 rating was #45. That's a huge improvement.
Texas' 2016 rating was #45. That's a huge improvement.
I can relate to the old part. I remember Chuck Muncie from his college time at Cal. Chuck Muncie is the poster child for a career destroyed by drugs. He did some prison time and I saw where died a few years ago. Tragic and sad that was Chuck Muncie's life.
Sorry to hijack. Let's get back on track.
I crunched some numbers (I have a lot of free time today
using the Football Efficiency Index for offense and defense. It seems like a really good compass for success.
-the top 17 teams in the final AP poll won at least 10 games last season
-the top 11 teams all finished with a top 25 Efficiency ranking in BOTH offense and defense except two teams: OU and TCU. OU had the #53 ranked defense, but had the #1 offense and by miles. TCU came in with the #46 offense but had the #18 defense.
-Every team that finished in the top 10 in the final AP poll had a top 10 Efficiency ranking in at least one of offense or defense EXCEPT for TCU.
-three teams finished top 10 in both offense and defense rankings: Georgia, Ohio St, and Washington (Alabama just missed- #2 defense and #11 offense)
-the worst ranked offenses out of those 17 teams were Northwestern (75), Michigan St. (49), TCU (46), and Miami (36). Those were the only teams that their offense was ranked outside of the top 25. Their defensive rankings were: Northwestern (27), Michigan St. (25), TCU (18), Miami (14).
-the only other teams that won 10 or more games were all from non power 5 conferences: South Florida (41 offense, 30 defense), Boise St. (33 offense, 36 defense), and Memphis (16 offense, 44 defense)
If Texas is going to win 10 games or more they need to keep at least a top 20 defense and improve their offense from #117 to the 50-75 range minimum.
The last time Texas finished in that range? 2013 at #59. Mack's last season. That was a Case McCoy led offense. However, that O had probably the best Oline since at least 2009. Also had Jaxon Shipley, Mike Davis, Daje Johnson, and Malcolm Brown, J. Gray, and Bergeron in the backfield.
According to these metrics, what was the best Texas team since 2007 (as far back as they go) ?
2008. Texas finished ranked #3 on O and #5 on D. That was the Tex/OU debate year where OU lost to Florida in the NC game. For reference, OU finished #1 on O and #6 on D. Florida was #2 in both O and D. That was also probably Texas Tech's best team ever. They finished #5 on O and #30 on D. TCU had the #1 D that year.
Here are all of Texas' offense and defense efficiency index rankings going back to 2007: Offense listed first, defense second:
2017: 117/6
2016: 85/45
2015: 110/33
2014: 109/16
2013: 59/33 (Greg Robinson saves the D)
2012: 18/54 (Many _iaz sucks)
2011: 81/5 (Many Diaz is a genius)
2010: 107/26 (Gilbert QB/Greg Davis fired)
2009: 18/3
2008: 3/5
2007: 26/33
using the Football Efficiency Index for offense and defense. It seems like a really good compass for success. -the top 17 teams in the final AP poll won at least 10 games last season
-the top 11 teams all finished with a top 25 Efficiency ranking in BOTH offense and defense except two teams: OU and TCU. OU had the #53 ranked defense, but had the #1 offense and by miles. TCU came in with the #46 offense but had the #18 defense.
-Every team that finished in the top 10 in the final AP poll had a top 10 Efficiency ranking in at least one of offense or defense EXCEPT for TCU.
-three teams finished top 10 in both offense and defense rankings: Georgia, Ohio St, and Washington (Alabama just missed- #2 defense and #11 offense)
-the worst ranked offenses out of those 17 teams were Northwestern (75), Michigan St. (49), TCU (46), and Miami (36). Those were the only teams that their offense was ranked outside of the top 25. Their defensive rankings were: Northwestern (27), Michigan St. (25), TCU (18), Miami (14).
-the only other teams that won 10 or more games were all from non power 5 conferences: South Florida (41 offense, 30 defense), Boise St. (33 offense, 36 defense), and Memphis (16 offense, 44 defense)
If Texas is going to win 10 games or more they need to keep at least a top 20 defense and improve their offense from #117 to the 50-75 range minimum.
The last time Texas finished in that range? 2013 at #59. Mack's last season. That was a Case McCoy led offense. However, that O had probably the best Oline since at least 2009. Also had Jaxon Shipley, Mike Davis, Daje Johnson, and Malcolm Brown, J. Gray, and Bergeron in the backfield.
According to these metrics, what was the best Texas team since 2007 (as far back as they go) ?
2008. Texas finished ranked #3 on O and #5 on D. That was the Tex/OU debate year where OU lost to Florida in the NC game. For reference, OU finished #1 on O and #6 on D. Florida was #2 in both O and D. That was also probably Texas Tech's best team ever. They finished #5 on O and #30 on D. TCU had the #1 D that year.
Here are all of Texas' offense and defense efficiency index rankings going back to 2007: Offense listed first, defense second:
2017: 117/6
2016: 85/45
2015: 110/33
2014: 109/16
2013: 59/33 (Greg Robinson saves the D)
2012: 18/54 (Many _iaz sucks)
2011: 81/5 (Many Diaz is a genius)
2010: 107/26 (Gilbert QB/Greg Davis fired)
2009: 18/3
2008: 3/5
2007: 26/33
Color me fvcking impressed! You do taxes as well?
What metrics is used to mathematically calculate the FEI?
What metrics is used to mathematically calculate the FEI?
I crunched some numbers (I have a lot of free time today
-the top 17 teams in the final AP poll won at least 10 games last season
-the top 11 teams all finished with a top 25 Efficiency ranking in BOTH offense and defense except two teams: OU and TCU. OU had the #53 ranked defense, but had the #1 offense and by miles. TCU came in with the #46 offense but had the #18 defense.
-Every team that finished in the top 10 in the final AP poll had a top 10 Efficiency ranking in at least one of offense or defense EXCEPT for TCU.
-three teams finished top 10 in both offense and defense rankings: Georgia, Ohio St, and Washington (Alabama just missed- #2 defense and #11 offense)
-the worst ranked offenses out of those 17 teams were Northwestern (75), Michigan St. (49), TCU (46), and Miami (36). Those were the only teams that their offense was ranked outside of the top 25. Their defensive rankings were: Northwestern (27), Michigan St. (25), TCU (18), Miami (14).
-the only other teams that won 10 or more games were all from non power 5 conferences: South Florida (41 offense, 30 defense), Boise St. (33 offense, 36 defense), and Memphis (16 offense, 44 defense)
If Texas is going to win 10 games or more they need to keep at least a top 20 defense and improve their offense from #117 to the 50-75 range minimum.
The last time Texas finished in that range? 2013 at #59. Mack's last season. That was a Case McCoy led offense. However, that O had probably the best Oline since at least 2009. Also had Jaxon Shipley, Mike Davis, Daje Johnson, and Malcolm Brown, J. Gray, and Bergeron in the backfield.
According to these metrics, what was the best Texas team since 2007 (as far back as they go) ?
2008. Texas finished ranked #3 on O and #5 on D. That was the Tex/OU debate year where OU lost to Florida in the NC game. For reference, OU finished #1 on O and #6 on D. Florida was #2 in both O and D. That was also probably Texas Tech's best team ever. They finished #5 on O and #30 on D. TCU had the #1 D that year.
Here are all of Texas' offense and defense efficiency index rankings going back to 2007: Offense listed first, defense second:
2017: 117/6
2016: 85/45
2015: 110/33
2014: 109/16
2013: 59/33 (Greg Robinson saves the D)
2012: 18/54 (Many _iaz sucks)
2011: 81/5 (Many Diaz is a genius)
2010: 107/26 (Gilbert QB/Greg Davis fired)
2009: 18/3
2008: 3/5
2007: 26/33
I crunched some numbers (I have a lot of free time today
-the top 17 teams in the final AP poll won at least 10 games last season
-the top 11 teams all finished with a top 25 Efficiency ranking in BOTH offense and defense except two teams: OU and TCU. OU had the #53 ranked defense, but had the #1 offense and by miles. TCU came in with the #46 offense but had the #18 defense.
-Every team that finished in the top 10 in the final AP poll had a top 10 Efficiency ranking in at least one of offense or defense EXCEPT for TCU.
-three teams finished top 10 in both offense and defense rankings: Georgia, Ohio St, and Washington (Alabama just missed- #2 defense and #11 offense)
-the worst ranked offenses out of those 17 teams were Northwestern (75), Michigan St. (49), TCU (46), and Miami (36). Those were the only teams that their offense was ranked outside of the top 25. Their defensive rankings were: Northwestern (27), Michigan St. (25), TCU (18), Miami (14).
-the only other teams that won 10 or more games were all from non power 5 conferences: South Florida (41 offense, 30 defense), Boise St. (33 offense, 36 defense), and Memphis (16 offense, 44 defense)
If Texas is going to win 10 games or more they need to keep at least a top 20 defense and improve their offense from #117 to the 50-75 range minimum.
The last time Texas finished in that range? 2013 at #59. Mack's last season. That was a Case McCoy led offense. However, that O had probably the best Oline since at least 2009. Also had Jaxon Shipley, Mike Davis, Daje Johnson, and Malcolm Brown, J. Gray, and Bergeron in the backfield.
According to these metrics, what was the best Texas team since 2007 (as far back as they go) ?
2008. Texas finished ranked #3 on O and #5 on D. That was the Tex/OU debate year where OU lost to Florida in the NC game. For reference, OU finished #1 on O and #6 on D. Florida was #2 in both O and D. That was also probably Texas Tech's best team ever. They finished #5 on O and #30 on D. TCU had the #1 D that year.
Here are all of Texas' offense and defense efficiency index rankings going back to 2007: Offense listed first, defense second:
2017: 117/6
2016: 85/45
2015: 110/33
2014: 109/16
2013: 59/33 (Greg Robinson saves the D)
2012: 18/54 (Many _iaz sucks)
2011: 81/5 (Many Diaz is a genius)
2010: 107/26 (Gilbert QB/Greg Davis fired)
2009: 18/3
2008: 3/5
2007: 26/33
Great stats. Is there a website like pro football focus that breaks down individual player performance? Combine individual grades with your stats and we will be able to quickly zero in on the issues or successes on the team. Most of this is probably evident as we need the O-line to improve first, next qb play, rb, and down the line.
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I was wrong the F is not for football it’s for “Fremeau” so I guess it’s a proprietary formula. Link: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus
The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted drive efficiency. Approximately 20,000 possessions are contested annually in FBS vs. FBS games. First-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores are filtered out. Game efficiency (GE) is a measure of net success on non-garbage possessions, and FEI opponent adjustments are calculated with special emphasis placed on quality performances against good teams, win or lose. Strength of schedule (SOS) ratings represent the average number of losses an elite team (two standard deviations better than average) would have against the team's entire schedule.
Offensive FEI (OFEI) is value generated per drive adjusted for starting field position and opponent defenses faced. Defensive FEI (DFEI) is value generated per opponent drive adjusted for starting field position and opponent offenses faced. Special Teams Efficiency (STE) is the average value generated per possession by a team's non-offensive and non-defensive units.
The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted drive efficiency. Approximately 20,000 possessions are contested annually in FBS vs. FBS games. First-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores are filtered out. Game efficiency (GE) is a measure of net success on non-garbage possessions, and FEI opponent adjustments are calculated with special emphasis placed on quality performances against good teams, win or lose. Strength of schedule (SOS) ratings represent the average number of losses an elite team (two standard deviations better than average) would have against the team's entire schedule.
Offensive FEI (OFEI) is value generated per drive adjusted for starting field position and opponent defenses faced. Defensive FEI (DFEI) is value generated per opponent drive adjusted for starting field position and opponent offenses faced. Special Teams Efficiency (STE) is the average value generated per possession by a team's non-offensive and non-defensive units.
So is it possible for Texas to improve enough on offense to have a 9,10 or more win season? They would have to improve on offense from #117 to at least 75 or better for a chance assuming the D stays at least top 20 which is no guarantee. There are huge losses with Poona, Malik and Hill. Plus we were very fortunate with injuries on defense last year. The chance that the D will stay that healthy again aren’t a given. On top of that there is no longer the best punter in football who could completely change the field no matter how bad the offense was.
Looking at the FEI stats there was one season where Texas drastically improved on offense from one season to the next. 2011 to 2012. They went from #81 on offense in 2011 to #18 in just one year. An improvement of 63 spots. That would take the current Texas from #117 to #54 which is well into the range of a ten win season assuming the D stays top at least top 20.
So what was the difference in those two seasons? Well, I’m not sure but on first glance I think it had a lot to do with the quarterbacks. The offensive coordinator in 2011 was Brian Herson in his first year 2012 was his second year. In 2011 Garret Gilbert started the season as a starting quarterback but was benched after the second game versus BYU. For the remainder of the season true freshman David Ash and sophomore Case McCoy changed hands at quarterback back and forth.
The 2012 season was a now seasoned healthy David Ash for the whole year. Plus Brian Harrison in his second year as coordinator.
Obviously there are a lot of parallels from that to the current situation you’ve got a new staff coming into their second year and finally some quarterback stability and experience and depth.
Looking at the FEI stats there was one season where Texas drastically improved on offense from one season to the next. 2011 to 2012. They went from #81 on offense in 2011 to #18 in just one year. An improvement of 63 spots. That would take the current Texas from #117 to #54 which is well into the range of a ten win season assuming the D stays top at least top 20.
So what was the difference in those two seasons? Well, I’m not sure but on first glance I think it had a lot to do with the quarterbacks. The offensive coordinator in 2011 was Brian Herson in his first year 2012 was his second year. In 2011 Garret Gilbert started the season as a starting quarterback but was benched after the second game versus BYU. For the remainder of the season true freshman David Ash and sophomore Case McCoy changed hands at quarterback back and forth.
The 2012 season was a now seasoned healthy David Ash for the whole year. Plus Brian Harrison in his second year as coordinator.
Obviously there are a lot of parallels from that to the current situation you’ve got a new staff coming into their second year and finally some quarterback stability and experience and depth.
Stud. Herman has a national recruiting presence in his 2nd cycle after 7-6. Imagine what’s going to happen in state and national when he wins 10+
It's never good for any team when their second best unit is comprised mainly of kids who've never played a snap of college football. Not sure who's coming back from last year's secondary that will start, but if a large amount of corner's safeties, and/or at nickel are going to be the true freshmen, that doesn't bode well. Even if they are the best db class in the country.
Good thing for the Horns five upperclassmen former starters returning in the secondary: Boyd, Locke, Davis, Bonney, Jones.
I think the D should be fine, but not as good as last year. I dont think Malik and Hill being gone will cause that noticeable dropoff, but the loss of Poona and Dickson might do em in....On the other hand, we have a much more experienced defense (from a stand point of knowing the system) coming in this year over last year. By the end of the year our D might in fact be pretty salty.
Remember that last year we lost the truely irreplaceable man almost from the get go. If Johnson goes out early this year it could be more of the same. Thin as we are in some positions, we are still more loaded than last year where we were within 2 injuries of having to recruit Tuba players from the band for our O line.
Remember that last year we lost the truely irreplaceable man almost from the get go. If Johnson goes out early this year it could be more of the same. Thin as we are in some positions, we are still more loaded than last year where we were within 2 injuries of having to recruit Tuba players from the band for our O line.
Hope you didn't have your hopes up. Lol. Bruh, our secondary is loaded with very talented seniors, juniors, sophomores and even a couple studs from the previous class.
Davis, Boyd, Jones, Locke, Boyce, Thompson just off the top of my head.
If any of our new kids start, they will have earned it. Definitely would not be a thrown to wolves out of need situation. That being said, guys like Foster, Cook, and Sterns could still end up starting, because they're that good.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/247spo...-2018-College-Football-Preview-119474730/Amp/
If BJ foster can stop posting sh!t on instagram that could catch us an NCAA sanction and result in him getting booted..... we should be ok.
yup
The only ones who should have a AD full time staff job like that BBR, is Earl Campbell and Mack Brown cause we owe him money, can't figure that one out, of all the money we got we still owe MB...If ya took Earls title away you would have half of Texas coming to kick ya butt!...LOL
Hook'em
Basically, he and some of his boys posted a photo of them leaning on a $70k car holding shopping bags full of tennis shoes they'd bought at the foot locker...... hundreds of dollars worth of shoes, and the comment was "we spend that $ and we get it right back.....". The post was up for about an hour, then it was taken down. I assume the SID at UT was like "wtf you stupid idiot!". But, several screen shots were taken. It's out there. Not a good look.
And lets hear it clob..whose fault is it for letting do it? Someone don't have control of their team, and you forgot in your list a tractor for someone....Shades of Jackie Sherill...
Hook'em
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Someone has to teach these guys how to save money. They are going to need it when the cte sets in.
Seems like CTE has already set in for a few of them.
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So, college athletes are supposed to acquire a degree which can be used in the arena of work to earn $$$. Where is that concept lost?
We need to get back to the concept of the student athlete. If someone does not want to be at a university, enter an amateurs league instead. The entrance scores for athletes should equal that of the regular student.
Back to football. What will our interior d line rotation look like and what are the probabilities that this may be our weak link this year?
That’s good. Like I said, I was unsure about who you returned. Didn’t know if you guys were hanging on your freshmen or not. Sounds like you guys have a really good returning secondary.
Micco, hit this link and spread it to the others that were asking about me.
http://www.soonertimesbb.com/forums/view_topic.php?id=27628&forum_id=2
http://www.soonertimesbb.com/forums/view_topic.php?id=27628&forum_id=2
Can you predict that rating for this upcoming year, and if so, where do you expect us to be?
(I know it's gotta be a real SWAG!)
There are enough dudes with experience for depth on the interior just don't know if any are elite/special. Looks like they have Nelson as their #1 guy for now. I would guess behind him order would be Wilbon, Chisolm, Graham, Christmas, then the freshman Ojomo and Couburn.
No clue, but I'll guess. (TLDR my guess still top 25)
BTW the ESPN advanced metrics/efficiency ratings had the Texas defense at #5 last year and the offense at #97. Right near where the other system, FEI, had it.
Well, the D keeps Orlando and his system which year two should be a marginal improvement alone with second year in a new system for both the players and coaches. However, they lose Poona, Malik, Hill, and Elliot who were arguably the best players at each level of the defense.
It's hard to expect no drop off, but they should still be solid to very good. A good indication would the bowl game vs Mizzou, one the of country's best offenses and one of the top QB's who may be the first guy off the NFL board next draft. That game was played without Malik, Hill, and Elliot on for the draft, plus Chris Nelson was out due to injury. Only Poona played in that game and the D still absolutely dominated arguably the SEC's top offense (Big 12 just too physical
Texas held Mizzou to 20 points below their season average, over 100 yards of offense below their season average, and allowed only 5 yards per play down from their season avr. of 7.2 So, without the guys leaving and Chris Nelson out it was still a great D. But....there won't be the best punter in football this year pinning back the opposition deep all day, AND there is no way the D will be as lucky on the injury front. The D last year had a relatively very healthy year (whereas the offense was extremely unusually harsh).and it's unlikely they will be as lucky this year.
With all that, I would guess they should still be a top 25 defense with a decent shot at holding serve and being a top 10 D. Even if they are a top 25 D they just need the offense to get out of the gutter (which will help the D) and there should be some more overall improvement into Herman's second year.
