How exactly did we get here?
For the better part of Saturday night and Sunday morning, I spent a lot of time giving that question serious thought.
I mean ... in the aftermath of Tom Herman's insane-in-retrospect hyperbole, this team actually being ranked coming off of a 5-7 season, non-stop 9-3 or better predictions and discussions on the Fox pre-game show about Texas being in the playoff within three seasons ...
How did we get here? Exactly.
I have a multi-part theory on how it all happened.
Part I: The overrating of the Texas talent.
All of this is connected to a slippery slope of connected parts, but let's start with this ... the Texas running backs, tight ends and offensive line are below average parts in reality, even more below average than Tom Herman could have imagined.
The trickle down was that when Herman saw a guy like Poona Ford make a play, there was a lot of fool's gold to be found in overvaluing what making that play really meant. At every layer of the defense, it was controlling its competing counterparts consistently and a couple of options for what it meant appeared.
a. The defense is really damn good.
b. The offense is so poor that it is making the defense appear to be much better than it really is.
Herman chose to believe the first option, in part because admitting that the second option was true was essentially an admission of multiple failures on the coaching staff in its quest to develop players over the course of the last eight months.
The coaches looked at all of those pretty players in pretty uniforms and underestimated how far the disease in the Texas program has spread in the last decade. Never in a million years did they think the players would blink like they did on Saturday in an actual game. It has rendered everything the coaches thought they knew about the team moot going into week two of the season.
Part II: The Media Got Drunk
Oh yeah, we played a role.
After seven straight seasons of failed benefits of the doubt, the media went all-in in giving Herman the benefit of the doubt before he had earned it in his new job.
Myself included (see my 9-3 season prediction, despite all of my admitted reasons for pause).
Herman hit the right note so many times on so many things during the off-season that we all just assumed anyone with his profile would lift this program above what it was a season ago.
The biggest thing it did to the media is that it created a force of push-back to reporting anything that wasn't pretty. In order to believe the team was going to go 9-3 or better, there needed to be enough pieces fitting together to justify that opinion. Throughout the last two weeks of camp, I've tried to be very slick in reporting that the offense had a very poor camp by dropping little snippets without giving the appearance that I was pissing on everyone's good-feel excitement.
Instead of trying to be slick, I needed to be screaming from the mountaintops, "This offense has looked like a hot mess!" I should have been more direct, but perhaps I let the potential push-back that I knew would come from reporting the struggles of the offense/quarterback (because it was significant throughout the off-season) impact the way I tried to be unassuming when dropping some of these hints (see my column from two weeks ago). I don't know what the exact answer is, but in retrospect I should have taken the heat at the expense of loud and clear disclosure.
Every media member let his or her confirmation bias kick in. We WANT to cover a good football team. It's great for business when the team is good.
Herman can sell a ketchup Popsicle to a room full of people wearing white coats and the media wasn't nearly as jaded with the handling of his first team as it has been for much of the last five years.
Point blank.
Part III: Herman drank the Kool-Aid
There's no reason to trace back over all of his commentary from the last month because I think most can remember at least one occasion when Herman said something about this team that expressed extreme confidence.
With practices closed and Herman providing near-daily updates, everyone trusted him when he spoke about the team because we all believe that he's a straight shooter when it comes to talking about his team. He had been so low on them in the spring, so when he started creating some hyperbole, it seemed to underscore his true thoughts on the team, even if a literal interpretation of what he was saying could be taken.
I think Herman significantly believed in this team going into Saturday. Because he seemed to believe so strongly, it made believing in his believing very easy to do.
Conclusion: When you add those three things together to create a super chaos baby, that's how the events of Saturday unfolded the way they unfolded from a perception standpoint from within.
That's my theory.
No. 2 – Putting Humpty Dumpty back together again ...
Tom Herman is going to earn his paycheck this week.
If there's anything Texas fans know after all of these years is that a loss like that can impact team psyche to the point that it can impact an entire season. I have to think Texas fans actually know that more than Tom Herman would.
You guys have seen it repeatedly. He hasn't.
As soon as that game ended, Herman's chops as an elite coach became much-needed because you have to believe some confidence was shaken on Saturday inside that locker room.
There's just too much football for one loss to help create another and another, so Herman and his staff have to be at their best this week in re-drawing the starting point of what can still be a very good season with substantial improvement across the board.
It starts in practice this week. This was the part of the job that Mack Brown did better than anyone else in the history of college football. It'll be fascinating to see how much Herman has learned from the old hound that never used to lose the follow-up to the Oklahoma game no matter what the circumstances were.
No. 3 - Three for three: Let's not forget the few positives ...
It wasn't all terrible on Saturday. Here are a few guys that deserve shout outs:
1. Reggie Hemphill-Mapps: Suchomel's lust over his favorite player could have only increased on Saturday, as he flashed all over the field throughout the game. The Texas punt return game was dreadful all year in 2016 and he changed that note in 2017 right away.
2. Collin Johnson: 7 for 125 and a touchdown. Get used to stat lines like this one.
3. Charles Omenihu: He's the one defensive player that deserves some love. He's turning into an impact player.
No. 4 – Stop me if you've heard this before ...
The four guys that Texas named as season-long captains a week ago were Connor Williams, P.J. Locke, Poona Ford and Naashon Hughes.
Each of those guys will have better moments ahead, but how many played at a high-enough level to warrant anyone caring about what they think from a leadership department?
Exactly.
No. 5 – Buy or Sell …
BUY or SELL: We are dramatically overreacting?
(Sell) I don't know that I have seen overreactions. I think what I've seen is a fan-base snapped quickly back to reality. Personally, I've seen tons of meltdowns over the years that were unwarranted. That is not what happened yesterday.
BUY or SELL: We will finish 5-7 again this year?
(Sell) I'm going top preach caution at this point. Let's see a little more football before we go there. I've said all along that this team'sbest football won't be played in September.
BUY or SELL: Gary Johnson plays at least 20 plays next game?
(Sell) He doesn't do any of the things well that the Texas linebackers didn't do on Saturday. He has problems getting off blocks, taking on blockers and avoiding critical run-game errors, just like everyone else.
BUY or SELL: More than 2 assistants are changed at year end?
(Sell) More so than Charlie Strong, Herman comprised this staff with his b-o-y-s. More so than Strong, Herman seems like a ride-or-die guy with his boys.
BUY or SELL: Herman inherited a more talented roster at UH than at Texas?
(Sell) I simply do not believe that.
BUY or SELL: The staff gives J.Heard more reps at QB since the offensive scheme seems better tailored to a true dualthreat QB?
(Buy) It might not happen in game settings yet, but I think Heard takes more reps in practice this week.
BUY or SELL: Outside of the new lockers, weight room, and social media, CTH is much more like CFS than any of us wanted to admit. Both had success at mid-major schools. Both had confidence in how they construct a winning team. Both brought in comfort hires to implement that vision rather than utilizing Texas money to bring in the top coaches in college football.
(Sell) I need a larger sample-size before completely changing what I thought about Herman a week ago. I'd tell you not to go too far.
No. 6 – Texas Football Tweet of the Weekend...
A few days later...
No. 7 – Marcus Johnson in Philly...
I think karma is about to bite me in the ass.
As someone who famously dismissed him as a college prospect following his junior season, it has occurred to me while watching his role in Philly grow that payback might be coming in the form of the most painful kind of payback .... scoring touchdowns against the Cowboys.
I'm bracing myself.
No. 8 – Five more sports things ...
a. My goodness, Alabama. The Tide didn't just beat on a very, very good Florida State team, it physically imposed its will in a way that will change the entire FSU season. Yes, Bama has my attention.
b. Michigan pretty much did a poor man's version of what Bama did to FSU in its game against Florida.
b. Just like Maryland beating Texas wasn't an accident, Liberty beating Baylor wasn't an accident.
c. Holy, smokes! Texas A&M... I see you. Wow. Well done (Edited: Never mind.)
d. Attaboy, Howard.
e. It felt like Costa Rica absolutely exposed the US men's national team on Friday night. Time to rally the troops on Monday night.
No. 9 – Game of Thrones Review: Season 7 (The Season Finale)...
With season seven in the books, I thought I would walk through what I think next season's opener might look like after processing last week's season-finale.
So, let's do this. My guesses for the first episode sometime in the next 18 months or so.
*SPOILER ALERT!*
*SPOILER ALERT!*
*SPOILER ALERT!*
... The episode begins with a shot of Tormund and Beric. Both are burried under ice and snow, but they are alive. As they emerge from the mess, they look over to the right and it looks like something out of a disaster movie. Within five feet of them is the edge of the Wall and beyond those five feet is nothing but air, as the rest of the wall has fallen to ground. Below them is an army of dead walking through.
Tormund mentions to Beric that this is the second time they deserved to die at the hands of the army of the dead and he's not sure why they are still around.
"This must mean that I am meant to be with the giant woman," Tormund jokes.
... We shift directions to a scene with Dany and Missandei.
Dany: "I think I'm in love. He did things I have never experienced."
Missandei."Did he do the thing with his tongue that Grey Worm does?"
Dany: "What tongue thing?"
Missandei leans and whispers into Dany's ear, causing a blush.
Dany: "You know nothing, Jon Snow."
... The next scene involves Jon and The Onion Knight. Jon isn't pouting. wait, is that a smile? He's totally giving away that he got laid and the Onion Knight remarks, "You know every man that has made love to her is dead with the exception of you. I would have targeted Melisandre."
At that moment, Sam and Bran show up on a boat... because... why the hell not? Time Travel is possible these days it seems based on season seven.
... Cersei is drinking in the next scene. Jamie asks in the presence of Bronn if she should be doing that since she;'s prego. She tells him, "Shut up, your traitor bitch."
As they walk away, Bronn tells Jamie, "I know you lost a hand, but I didn't know you also lost your balls."
... Hey, there's the ice dragon. He's just flying around destroying stuff, while the Night King rides him like he's Gene Wilder in Stir Crazy.
... We go back to Jon, Sam and Bran. Before Sam can delicately tell Jon that he;s related to his girlfriend, Bron snaps, "You slept with your Aunt! BTW, I'm the Three-Eyed Raven."
Jon: "What is he talking about?"
Sam: "Don't worry, he says that a lot. He's a different kind of dude, Jon. He's hell to take a long-distance trip with. That being said, I have good news and bad news.
Jon: "What's the bad news?"
Sam: "You are related to your girlfriend and your dad isn't who you thought it was.
Jon: "What's the good news?"
Sam: "You can probably ride a dragon."
Bran: "I have to go find a tree. I'll be back."
... Final scene of the episode. Beric and Tormund are surrounded and it looks bad for them. They start fighting there way out of the army when they find themselves standing in front of the Night King.
At that moment, both men wield weapons and prepare for the fight. Just then, all of the members of the army of the dead drop their weapons and an opening presents itself for both men to escape through. Confused, both men begin to run through the path created and they eventually leave the army of the dead behind them, while the Night King watches on, having allowed it all to happen.
As the camera zooms into his face and into his eyes, it zooms back out quickly and you see Bran's face. He is the Night King.
*END OF SPOILER ALERT!*
*END OF SPOILER ALERT!*
*END OF SPOILER ALERT!*
No. 10 – And finally …
I just wanted to give a special shout out to @OBRob for putting together an amazing event at the Jeff Dillard tailgate, especially when you consider it all came together in the final days and hours. If you want to profile your business on the board/site moving forward, send him a PM.
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