Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend: (The problems on offense....)
- Thread starter Ketchum
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All of that if good and fine... the reality s that Texas has not gotten anywhere close to the quarterback play it needs in 8 of the last 12 quarters since Quinn has returned.
We can debate and discuss the reasons for that, but it's a reality that exists and impacts results.
I did not realize the Sugar Bowl is something you just show up for and win? 🤣
He did a lot, and the 10-win season was miraculous given the head coaching and talent surrounding him at that time.
Most of those I lived in Houston or Katy. Saw all the ones in Austin too. 🤷🏻♂️
Throwing for 11,436 passing yards while throwing 94 passing touchdowns and rushing for 1,907 yards with rushing TDs is not nothing.
I think you’re confusing the team’s success overall. The talent just wasn’t there until Sark arrived, with the exception of Bijan.
Sam did more than Quinn with less. The evidence is in the career statics. Period.
You can't say he's done more when the more is compiling a bunch of empty stats.
How about days ranked in the top 5?
For those of us that are not big Country fans; who is Keith Whitley and what is his back story ?
I'm not opening up this week's column with concerns about Quinn Ewers.
Or the Texas offensive line. Or the Texas running backs. Or even a wide receiver unit that people really should apologize for daring to compare to last season's group.
As the Texas football team gets ready to head into a bye week with one foot into the first-ever 12-team college football playoff that begins in 54 days, my issue is less about the individual parts of Steve Sarkisian's offense and more about the sum of the collected parts.
By the end of Saturday night's win over Vanderbilt, the Texas offense had been found out. The passing game was performing at the levels of the first half of the Georgia game. The running game was admittedly solid, but not so solid that it could punt any drive into the end zone. Explosive plays were suddenly occurring with a premium. Sloppiness was constantly popping up. Vanderbilt defensive backs were sitting on every route, daring Texas to do anything down the field.
Texas averaged 3.1 yards per play, 1.4 yards per rush, and completed two passes in the fourth quarter, while nearly posting as many yards in penalties (45) as it gained in total offense (51).
That's so not remotely good enough as a standard for the future that actual poor standards are blushing in comparison. When Sarkisian says that his team needs to play to a high standard, and not to its weekly opponent, this is the opposite of what he's aiming for.
With the weeks that will ultimately determine how the season is remembered looming in the near-distance,
Sarkisian has to put his Humpty Dumpty offense back together again ... or else.
Let's take a look at the various areas of concern.
No. 2 - Quinn Ewers ...
Since returning from his oblique injury three weeks ago, here's a look at Ewers' performance levels by quarter:
OU 1st Q: 3 of 5 for 13 yards, OT, 1 INT (41.8 rating)
OU 2nd Q: 10 of 12 for 109 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT (181.7 rating)
OU 3rd Q: 5 of 9 for 71 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (121.8 rating)
OU 4th Q: 2 of 3 for 6 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (6.4 rating)
Georgia 1Q: 5 of 8 for 17 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (80.4 rating)
Georgia 2Q: 1 of 4 for 0 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT (-25.00)
Georgia 3Q: 7 of 10 for 90 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT (211.6 rating)
Georgia 4Q: 12 of 21 for 104 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (98.7 rating)
Vandy 1Q: 12 of 13 for 126 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT (201.3 rating)
Vandy 2Q: 7 of 8 for 85 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT (218.0 rating)
Vandy 3Q: 6 of 9 for 39 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT (80.8 rating)
Vandy 4Q: 2 of 7 for 36 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT (71.8 rating)
For those who don't completely understand the context, know that the nation's lowest-rated passer on the official NCAA website this week is Wyoming's Evan Svoboda, who is the only player in the country with a sub-100 rating (94.58). In seven of the quarters that he's played since his return, Ewers has posted sub-100 ratings, and in six of those quarters, his passer rating was below the season number for the worst quarterback in the country. Another Ewers' quarter (OU third quarter) would rank 106th in the country, respectively, if slotted in this week's current NCAA individual passing leaders rankings.
It means that since his return, Ewers has delivered four absolute elite of the elite-level quarters of action and eight quarters of the worst or the worst-level quarters of action as it relates to non-subjective passing efficiency data.
Heading into this weekend, Ewers ranked 128th nationally in air yards per attempt (5.65) and 115th in percentage of throws 20 or more yards downfield (9.3%), numbers that were impossible to forget during the Vanderbilt game as the naked eyes of the Orangebloods universe watched pass after pass after pass after pass after pass delivered within a 10-yard window of the line of scrimmage.
According to Pro Football Focus, Ewers has thrown 31.0% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage this season, while 36.9% are within 0-9 yards of the line of scrimmage. By comparison, only 25.0% of Arch Mannings's passes have been behind the line of scrimmage and only 28.6% of his throws have been between 0-9 yards. Meanwhile, Manning's instinct to throw the ball 20+ yards down the field (20.2%) is one of the reasons why he would lead the nation in yards per attempt if he had enough attempts to qualify.
I'm not suggesting that Manning be the starter. I'm merely pointing out that all of the data surrounding Ewers isn't a byproduct of Sarkisian's system with Ewers as the centerpiece.
The rub is, according to PFF, Ewers only has a passing efficiency of 136.8 when he throws the ball 10+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage, while he has a 162.3 rating when throwing the ball under nine yards from the line of scrimmage. As things stand, Manning has a season efficiency rating of 255.3 when throwing the ball 10+ yards down the field, while also having a much higher rating when throwing under nine yards from the line of scrimmage.
Simply put ...
a. Ewers must play better.
b. Ewers must throw the ball more down the field.
c. Ewers must achieve more success when throwing down the field.
No. 3 - The offensive line ...
It's all been falling apart throughout the last two games, at least when comparing the level of play by this group compared to what was produced in the first half of the season.
It feels like three areas of this group need to be focused on ...
a. Penalties
The mountain of flags thrown against this group simply has to slow down significantly. If you have a passing game that wants to throw the ball short, constantly putting it in awful down-and-distance situations is begging for problems.
It's not rocket science. Texas had a penalty by an offensive lineman or tight end in every second-half possession against Vanderbilt outside of the drive that ended on play No. 3 because of an Ewers interception.
Cam Williams has to clean up his game. The entire line does, but Williams has been called for 11 penalties (per PFF) in eight games and has only played two clean games all season.
b. The right side of the line
The combination of Williams and starting guard D.J. Campbell hasn't been good enough in the last two games.
Period.
c. Protecting Quinn as a pass protection unit
This doesn't all fall on the offensive line because you have to include the running backs and tight ends to get a full grasp of the failings that have occurred as a working unit, but alarm bells are going off.
Ewers has a 105.23 quarterback efficiency rating, is completing only 48.9% of his passes, and averaging 6.0 yards per attempt when pressured this season (per PFF).
Teams have figured out that the way to break the Texas offensive passing game is to get to Ewers because he'll either ineffectively throw it short or the line will commit a penalty. The rub is that if you blitz and don't get to Ewers, he'll kill opposing defenses.
Too often in the past couple of weeks, Ewers is getting pressured by teams that don't need to blitz to create pressure. Opposing defensive linemen are winning too many battles.
These are all areas that Kyle Flood has to improve.
No. 4 - The running backs ...
It's possible that nothing can be done about the situation at running back and it's also possible that all of the issues at running back would still exist if CJ Baxter was healthy.
Tre Wisner has been solid this season, but his 5.3 yards per carry is largely lifted because of a season-best game against Oklahoma, as he's been held under 5 yards per carry in five out of seven games. Meanwhile, my guy Jaydon Blue is averaging 4.4 yards per carry this season and you can't call that anything other than a borderline disaster after averaging 6.1 yards per carry a season ago. Baxter averaged 4.8 yards per carry last year, so it's hard to say with certainty that he would have impacted these numbers significantly if healthy.
The bottom line is that Jonathon Brooks, Bijan Robinson, and Roschon Johnson aren't walking through the locker room doors and what's left behind has been below any resemblance of high-level standards.
In addition to the not-good-enough numbers, the blocking at the position has also been a problem in recent weeks.
These are all areas of things Tashard Choice has to improve, if at all possible.
No. 5 - The wide receivers ...
Since Ewers returned to the line-up, here is how the wide receiver unit has performed in each game:
vs. Oklahoma: 8 catches for 105 yards and 0 touchdowns
vs. Georgia: 9 catches for 100 yards and 1 touchdown
at Vanderbilt: 13 receptions for 157 yards and 3 touchdowns
The offense just isn't getting enough out of the players available. Ryan Wingo is averaging 22.3 yards per game in SEC play. DeAndre Moore had six catches for 97 yards against Vanderbilt, but had only 3 combined catches for 25 yards in games against Georgia and Oklahoma. Matthew Golden is averaging 36 yards per game over the last three games. Silas Bolden and Johntay Cook are basically non-factors.
All of this is happening while Isaiah Bond hasn't been able to feature because of injury.
In addition to the not-good-enough numbers, the blocking at the position has also been a problem in recent weeks.
These are all areas of things Chris Jackson has to improve, if at all possible.
No. 7 - About the defense ...
In the event you're concerned that too much of the column is based on negative things, take a look at these defensive numbers:
Scoring Defense: (11.50) 2nd nationally
Total Defense: (241.2): 1st nationally
Passing yards allowed: (135.8) 3rd nationally
Rushing yards Allowed: (105.5) 20th nationally
3rd down defense: (28.4%) 8th nationally
Red-Zone Percentage: (.733) 14th nationally
Red-Zone Scores Allowed: (8) 2nd nationally
Red-Zone Passing TDs Allowed: (2) 2nd nationally
Red-Zone Rushing TDs Allowed: (4) 6th nationally
First Downs: (13.1 per game) 1st nationally
Team Passing Efficiency: (90.77) 2nd nationally
Team Sacks: (20) 16th nationally
Team Tackles For Loss: (6.9 per game) 23rd nationally
Turnovers Gained: (17) 8th nationally
No. 7 - If I had a vote that mattered ...
1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Miami
5. Texas
6. Penn State
7. Tennessee
8. Clemson
9. Indiana
10. Notre Dame
Heisman Trophy
1. Cam Ward (Miami)
2. Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)
3 Dillon Gabrel (Oregon)
4. Travis Hunter (Colorado)
5. Kurtis Rourke (Indiana)
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I still think Texas heads into College Station with a 10-1 record, but the game in Fayetteville is ominous.
(Sell) Sam played with the following NFL skill players: Devin Duvernay, Collin Johnson, Lil'Jordan Humphrey, Keaontay Ingram, Andrew Beck, Jared Wiley, Jordan Whittington, Roschon Johnson, and Bijan Robinson. Let's not pretend that he was a one-man gang that was always surrounded by bums. No, in general, he did not do more with less. I completely reject that notion.
(Sell) I've always been at a 10 with this game. It's the second-most difficult game on the entire schedule.
(Sell) It's at least a 9, even if I think Texas will win the game.
(Sell) My instincts say no, but perhaps I'd change my mind if I had more context to "Texas trailing".
(Buy) I absolutely expect it to be better. It's going to be loaded.
(Sell) I'm kind of done giving the offense the benefit of the doubt. Some really good defenses are on the horizon.
(Buy) 10000000000%
(Buy) I always hold back to some degree. There's never a completely unvarnished, unhinged expression of thought.
(Buy) I believe Arch is better. I have been saying that at least on the low-key for the last few weeks.
(Sell/Buy) I don't know what to tell you about the Arkansas roady. There's absolutely some real risk in a terrible weekend occurring. Yes, Green will be a good practice exam for the game in College Station. It definitely won't hurt.
(Sell) I don't believe that at all.
(Buy) Arch's distribution in the passing game mirrors what Alabama did under Sark.
(Buy) Probably by less than a field goal. Maybe a pick'em?
(Sell) All you're telling me with that suggestion is that the band-aid should pulled off slowly instead of quickly IF the band-aid needs to be pulled.
(Sell) He'll be in the NFL next season.
(Buy) He's hit something. He hasn't recorded an official stat in the last two games.
No. 9 – Scattershooting all over the place …
... Let's just not speak of what happened to the volleyball team in mid-week ...
... Game this week to enjoy on the bye week: No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State (11 am on Fox)
... Ohio State is nothing special.
... Notre Dame really beat the hell out of Navy. Isn't that a federal crime?
... SEC Thoughts: That Aggies team looked like a real threat in the second half after a pretty weak first half. Mess around with that team and you can find out. Missouri should be ashamed of itself for that performance at Alabama. Woof. OU's going to need to win in Columbia to make a bowl game. That's not an impossible mission. Arkansas' season will be defined by its next two games... at home against Ole Miss (this Saturday) and Texas (in three weeks).
... Ho-hum, the Texans are just on pace to win 12 or 13 games ...
... Bijan Robinson is on pace for 1,173 yards rushing, 1,661 all-purpose rushing/receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns in his second NFL season.
... Aaron Rodgers has the same record with the Jets as the Browns have after this weekend. Lulz ...
... Kevin Durant has passed 29,000 career points, joining LeBron James, Kareem Abdel-Jabbar, Karl Malone, Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan, Dirk Nowitzki and Wilt Chamberlain. Some company. The dude just turned 36 years old and he dropped 31 points and 9 boards on 10 of 21 shooting in a win over the Mavericks.
... Ohtani's gonna play in game 3? Ohtani's gonna play in game 3!
... Did the game one walk-off clinch Freddie Freeman as a Hall of Famer?
... Max Holloway got knocked the hell out at UFC 308. I guess there's a first time for everything.
... Man, Barcelona dog-walked Real Madrid 4-0 in the Bernabeau. It's a result that is so emphatic that I'm not fully sure how I should process it.
... Premier League Randomness: Liverpool/Arsenal played what it ended up being a pretty fair result. I found it interesting that Arsenal basically sat in deep and played for a 2-1 game coming out of halftime, as it created a mere .05 xG from halftime until the 81st minute. At home, needing 3 points? Cowards. That slate of Saturday 9 am games didn't look like much on paper, but the final combined 30 minutes was borderline insane. Brighton has no business dropping points to Wolves at home after taking a 2-0 lead. Woof. That would keep me up for a week. I didn't watch a second of the Spurs game... what the hell was that? It bothers me that Man United is going to get Ten Hag fired.
No. 10 – The List: Keith Whitley
If Keith Whitley never died and had found a way to get on top of his demons... what happens?
Is he the GOAT? Is he just outside of King George territory? Does he become forgotten in time?
Something I was thinking about this week while spending some time listening to him.
Last 5 Out: It Ain't Nothin', Hard Livin, Some Old Side Road, Brotherly Love and
Til a Tear Becomes a Rose
10. I'm Over You
A top 5 song for Whitley on Spotify with more than 33 million listens.
A duet with Whitley and Lorrie Morgan
9. Homecoming '63
The second Top 10 hit of Whitley's career.
8. Ten Feet Away
Our boy could simply sink the hell out of a ballad.
7. I Never Go Around Mirrors
The most underrated song among the best of his best songs.
6. I'm No Stranger to the Rain
It hit No. 1 on April 8, 1989, and one month and a day later, Whitley was dead.
5. I Wonder Do You Think of Me
This was the first single released after he died... you're going to hear this word again in a bit, but, haunting...
4. Miami, My Amy
The catchiest song of his catalog.
3. Tell Lorrie I Love Her
Absolutely haunting.
2. When You Say Nothing At All
It feels like this song would be the consensus No. 1 for Whitley, but I prefer a different song.
1. Don't Close Your Eyes
This song makes me ask a hell of a lot of questions, but the bottom line is that the pain of him singing for the love of his life to forget about some other guy is a hard listen packed into incredibly painful storytelling/singing.
Big country sensation in the late 80s/early 90s.
Was married to country singer Lorrie Morgan and was haunted by alcoholism, which killed him.
B/S: Texas would be the Vegas underdog if playing Aggy in CS next weekend.
(Buy) Probably by less than a field goal. Maybe a pick'em?
FPI currently has the Horns ranked #1 and Aggy at #12.
SP+ has the Horns, again, at #1 and Aggy at #11.
Both of these are predictive models.
Sagarin has Texas #4 & A&M #11 with an implied line of Texas -1 on the road.
FPI/SP+ both have Texas favored by ~9 on a neutral field.
As recently as 10/17, at least one book was taking bets at Texas -8.5.
The Kyle Field home field advantage in this rivalry game has to be worth more than the standard ~3 points. Let's call it 5. Add in recency bias and the line could very well have opened up anywhere from UT -3.5 to PICK were they playing this Saturday (though the UT -3.5 side of that would have been more likely).
But, coming back to earth a bit... A&M lost to Notre Dame at home, struggled with a 4-4 Bowling Green team at home, should have lost to Arkansas on a neutral field, struggled to put away Miss St.
ESPN Matchup Predictor (using FPI) gives Texas a 69% chance of winning in College Station. This implies a -6 -225 type line.
We would have been favored.
Well, I'm a known skeptic on the value of data and analytics. I don't dismiss it, but I've learned that it suggests conclusions that are always simplistic, and wrong a decent chunk of the time.
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I guess "Or even a wide receiver unit that people really should apologize for daring to compare to last season's group." came across as bit of a swipe to me, but maybe I'm wrong.
That’s a team stat, not a QB stat.
Jaydon Daniels never spent a day in the top 5, yet he won the Heisman?
Same could be said about Johnny Football
I guess you don't watch the Texans as much as I do. The Oline penalties for both teams are mind numbing.
Yes, statistics will tell you anything you want to know if you torture them enough. Still, average depth of targets is 5.9 yards is bottom of the power conferences. This ain't right.
So far, Ewers has done the same with a much better team around him.
I don’t think that he has recovered but is afraid of being overshadowed by Arch and losing his job while he actually heals. He is also fearful of being tagged as injury-prone at the next level and he should be — every year since his last year in high school, he has been out with an injury and unable to play.
Entirely true and I totally agree with this opinion. Sark probably feels caught between a rock and a hard place. I just wonder if Quinn would benefit from professional counseling. I watch him and I feel like he is really scared of getting hurt. All of his dreams are going up in smoke.
Scouts just have the evidence to determine, going back to high school days, that Quinn has not played as season without being injured. The only constant in Ewers history is that he will get injured.
What we are witnessing now is his focus on not getting injured, to the detriment of the team's ability to win.
Ewers took us to a conference title and the CFP. How exactly has he done less?
The best running back in the NFL draft was Jonathan Brooks, and our DTs went in the 1st and 2nd round of the NFL draft.
X went in the 1st round
AD Mitchell went in the 2nd round
Both ran 4.2 and 4.3 40-yard dashes, one set the all-time record for the 40-yard dash.
The only upgrade might be Gunner Helm at TE.
We got the best left tackle in Longhorn history protecting Ewers, who may not be here next year for Arch.
Let’s stop comparing Texas Football team results with Ewers. His best game by far was Bama last year where X primarily went off. You’re seeing that talent in the NFL with Mahomes to X now. Same receiver, at a higher level, still excelling.
Meanwhile without all that talent around him, Ewers has regressed, or is playing injured as some suggest. Either way, the upside with Arch outweighs whatever else Ewers has to offer and he is still the backup to Arch.
I remember Maalik starting a few games while Ewers was injured.
Ewers didn’t even start every game last season. Common now Ketch, now you’re reaching.
Got him. 😇
Wait, Bama was his best game “by far”? In the Big 12 title game, Ewers finished 35 of 46 passing for 452 yards and four touchdowns. Bama game: 24 of 38 passes for 349 yards and three touchdowns. But in any event, both great games when it mattered most. We’ll just agree to disagree.
The 2024 WR numbers on the season are better. Not sure what else I can use to judge how good they are. Both groups had lulls during the season that led to games that were too close for comfort. I'm don't believe that the receivers were to blame in either case.
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