Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Time to do away with the scratch-offs...)

[Buda Horn]

The portal targets we would be interested in are more experienced, ahead in their development, and hungry to play and not just content to be on the team.

And my point is that those players that you are describing would only come to Texas if there is a top 60 roster spot available for them, not if they are spot 60-85 on the roster, replacing the developmental prospects.

You said it yourself... they don't want to be content just to be on the team, but if their slot on the roster is spots 60-85, their role is not to play meaningful snaps.

 

[Buda Horn]

You can, though.

There are less quality landing spots available for many of these transfers. Texas would be an attractive place for kids who have limited options because the musical chairs game ended with them havuing less options that thwy want.

Diamonte Tucker-Dorsey wasn't a plus player for Texas, but he was a solid addition. He chose Texas over FAU. His presence made the team better.

Also, having an elite scouting department who is combing the country for players that can fill these roles would/should give Texas a major advantage.

When you look at the 2022 deep dig (thanks Alex), you find that Tucker-Dorsey ranked 3rd on the team in snaps at the LB position on the team with 260 snaps. Those are basically starter-level or 1st man off the bench in 2-LB alignment snap numbers, not 3rd string on the depth chart snaps. He didn't come here to be a 3rd string player on the depth chart.

 

[Mike.Tip]

And my point is that those players that you are describing would only come to Texas if there is a top 60 roster spot available for them, not if they are spot 60-85 on the roster, replacing the developmental prospects.

You said it yourself... they don't want to be content just to be on the team, but if their slot on the roster is spots 60-85, their role is not to play meaningful snaps.

You say they will not. They have. They don’t think they will be 3rd string but they find the competition better than they imagined. See JahLeel Billingsly, Tarique Milton, Ben Davis, Devin Richardson, Ray Thornton. All misses.
That would also be a recruiting miss by the coaches but, if they do it right, will only be a one year miss. I am saying that it is better to miss on a portal player with one year of eligibility than an incoming HS freshman that does not project to make a 2 deep by their RS sophomore year. It does HS kids no good service to take them knowing the deck is stacked against them to ever get on the field. Those kids would be better off getting reps on a thinner roster.

 

[Texus]

Until proven otherwise, It is still a concern for me. I want to see Manny emerge as “that guy” and see vastly better safety play. Are you confident the other corner is good enough? I have a lot of questions about the defense this year. I am hopeful PK and Nansen can get our D right but I am worried about the interior DL and overall pass defense.

The comparison is to last year’s squad.

J Thompson and K Crawford versus Mukuba and D Williams.

To me, this is the most improved position group on the team.

Brooks and Watts versus Mohammed and whoever wins the battle on the other side.

Brooks portaled because he knew he wasn’t going to win that battle.

With Barron back at nickel, a year more seasoned - with a healthy Gilbeau - that spot is also better.

I see the secondary as a whole as much improved.

 

[Ketchum]

I have this thing I’ve been doing with a close friend for a very long time where I look around CFB for the team with the best combo of OL and QB and pick that team to finish the season in the top 5. Steak dinner on the line. It rarely fails.

Texas is that team this year.

Curious your thoughts in the secondary. It’s the clearest area of improvement I see.
What do you see?

I think it's too soon to draw conclusions. Safety play should be much better. Can Jahdae play at a higher level. Is there enough quality corner depth?

 

[Ketchum]

They have kinda been doing that. The target isn’t to portal in 3rd string players. I doubt they would have taken any of them they didn’t think were an upgrade over their worst player pushing to make the 2 deep.
All this nil/portal stuff is still developing but there are way more players in the portal than ever get signed. Many of these players are better additions to the overall team than underclassmen development projects. It would yield more concentrated reps and coaching for the higher ranked/skilled/ready HS recruits. The portal targets we would be interested in are more experienced, ahead in their development, and hungry to play and not just content to be on the team.

 

[Ketchum]

Until proven otherwise, It is still a concern for me. I want to see Manny emerge as “that guy” and see vastly better safety play. Are you confident the other corner is good enough? I have a lot of questions about the defense this year. I am hopeful PK and Nansen can get our D right but I am worried about the interior DL and overall pass defense.

Are you my long lost brother?

 

[Type O]

Of the 22 players listed on the projected two-deep on defense, 18 made immediate impacts in their respective Texas careers and four made significant contributions and/or made the two-deep in their second seasons. Not a single player on the projected two-deep needed until a third season to emerge as a member of the two-deep or contribute in the majority of games.

Love the 2-deep/contributor impact analysis. Exactly what we’ve been arguing about for years. 😏

It shows that being a high 4-star or better is obviously important, but shows that mid 4-stars and lower contribute and are on every team, NFL be damned. It is definitely about managing the margins, as Jimmy Johnson and Bill Parcels famously did.

Too many OBs are caught up in your NFL draft percentage analysis and look at each recruit as pass/fail right off the bat. Hopefully this analysis gets them to look deeper into rankings and rosters.

 

[Mike.Tip]

The comparison is to last year’s squad.

J Thompson and K Crawford versus Mukuba and D Williams.

To me, this is the most improved position group on the team.

Brooks and Watts versus Mohammed and whoever wins the battle on the other side.

Brooks portaled because he knew he wasn’t going to win that battle.

With Barron back at nickel, a year more seasoned - with a healthy Gilbeau - that spot is also better.

I see the secondary as a whole as much improved.

Again. I’d feel better seeing it play out than relying on projections and hope. Catalon was supposed to be that hope once…

 

[Mike.Tip]

Are you my long lost brother?

My Dad WAS in the Navy… 🥸

 

[TexLex]

I am a bit surprised that some are still wrestling with Ketch's conclusions about HS vs Portal Transfers. I tried to restate it previously and only missed on my understanding that Ketch wants the HS players to be on at least 2nd string by year #2 of eligibility. But here goes another way to describe what Ketch is saying...maybe this will help.

• The higher ranked players are more often starters for you, so take them. Some will not develop as expected, but they will at a higher percentage than lower ranked players. If they do not develop, they will be gone....to Tech.
• While some of the lower-rated players will do well, given that it is at a smaller percentage than the highly-rated players, let Baylor, U of H, TCU, Tech and Texas St (you know, the 'UT farm system') take them, let those schools assume the risk they do not develop and then when those few 'projects' shine, money-whip them into the SEC by doubling what UofH will pay them, with a chance to play in meaningful games in front of 100,000 people in Austin and Tuscaloosa and Athens, etc., get more TV exposure, work with elite coaches and Strength and Conditioning staff and maybe play Sundays. Sure, they might not get as many minutes as they would at Tech, and maybe they will not get enough minutes to be pleased (in which case they are not really that good,) but they are getting more money and a better chance to go to the NFL if they come to Austin. And those that come will be better than the ones who never cracked the UT 2-deep and are now playing at TCU their final 2 years.

 

[Ketchum]

Love the 2-deep/contributor impact analysis. Exactly what we’ve been arguing about for years. 😏

It shows that being a high 4-star or better is obviously important, but shows that mid 4-stars and lower contribute and are on every team, NFL be damned. It is definitely about managing the margins, as Jimmy Johnson and Bill Parcels famously did.

Too many OBs are caught up in your NFL draft percentage analysis and look at each recruit as pass/fail right off the bat. Hopefully this analysis gets them to look deeper into rankings and rosters.

I feel like there's tons of room to do both.

 

[Ketchum]

Again. I’d feel better seeing it play out than relying on projections and hope. Catalon was supposed to be that hope once…

To be fair, I tried to tell everyone he was probably a waste of time.

 

[Ketchum]

I am a bit surprised that some are still wrestling with Ketch's conclusions about HS vs Portal Transfers. I tried to restate it previously and only missed on my understanding that Ketch wants the HS players to be on at least 2nd string by year #2 of eligibility. But here goes another way to describe what Ketch is saying...maybe this will help.

• The higher ranked players are more often starters for you, so take them. Some will not develop as expected, but they will at a higher percentage than lower ranked players. If they do not develop, they will be gone....to Tech.
• While some of the lower-rated players will do well, given that it is at a smaller percentage than the highly-rated players, let Baylor, U of H, TCU, Tech and Texas St (you know, the 'UT farm system') take them, let those schools assume the risk they do not develop and then when those few 'projects' shine, money-whip them into the SEC by doubling what UofH will pay them, with a chance to play in meaningful games in front of 100,000 people in Austin and Tuscaloosa and Athens, etc., get more TV exposure, work with elite coaches and Strength and Conditioning staff and maybe play Sundays. Sure, they might not get as many minutes as they would at Tech, and maybe they will not get enough minutes to be pleased (in which case they are not really that good,) but they are getting more money and a better chance to go to the NFL if they come to Austin. And those that come will be better than the ones who never cracked the UT 2-deep and are now playing at TCU their final 2 years.

💕💕💕💕💕💕💕💕💕💕💕💕💕💕💕💕

 

[Type O]

I feel like there's tons of room to do both.

Your NFL analysis is accurate. My only problem with it is that superficial OBs that don’t really understand recruiting take it to mean every recruit must be a high 4-star or 5-star, and we know that’s unrealistic.

What you’ve done here is the perfect balance to that.