Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (What we KNOW about Quinn/Arch)
- Thread starter Ketchum
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Boy that Steve Martin John Candy clip is fantastic-As a writer, you kind of know that you're potentially opening a can of worms when you have to issue a disclaimer at the top of a content piece.
Here's mine ... I KNOW that Quinn Ewers is the starting quarterback for the Texas Longhorns. I also KNOW that there's not much of a quarterback competition for the starting job in 2024.
It's Quinn.
From my perspective, Ewers proved last year that he's a very, very good quarterback capable of leading a team to big things. He's good enough to win the Big 12 Championship game MVP. He's good enough to beat Alabama on the road. He's a future NFL player.
Yet, he's not yet proven that he's a great quarterback. His worst game of last season (statistically speaking) came in the most important game of last season when he was clearly the second-best quarterback on the field in a game that Texas lost by 8 points while also knocking on the door of Washington's goal line in the final seconds. Outside of the Big 12 Championship, he didn't break a game rating of 164 in seven of his last eight games (starting on 9/30/23).
By comparison, Dillon Gabriel did it four times in his final eight games last year at Oklahoma, including three straight to end the season, and the OU coaches basically showed him the door.
Quinn Ewers is a very good college football player who everyone is hoping takes the final step in his evolution of a player into the greatness tier. We might have a subjective opinion on whether it will or will not happen in 2024, but we don't KNOW. From a quantifiable standpoint, it simply hasn't happened yet.
Enter Arch Manning into the chat.
Before we go any further, let's just acknowledge that Manning is ... which is the most exciting, non-starting player in college football. He's the former No. 1 overall player in the 2023 recruiting class and has one of the most-known last names in the sport. It's like if his last name was Maradona and he lived in Argentina.
On a weekend in college football where spring games took place all over the country, only one story in college football made ESPN.com's "Top headlines" on Sunday morning ... the backup quarterback at Texas.
Before we go any further, we all need to be on the same page that this situation is unique in a million ways.
One of those unique ways is the reality that no 5-star quarterback since 2002 who was ranked as a top-5 (or better) prospect nationally has ever waited two years before emerging as a starting quarterback. Manning is going to do this and it's never happened before. We're talking about a player who some people believe will be the No. 1 overall pick in a future NFL Draft to be named later. It's like getting a PlayStation for Christmas and not being able to plug it in for a couple of years.
Ok, let's talk about his performance in the glorified practice that gets televised and has a snazzy name (The Spring Game) when he went 19 of 26 for 355 yards and 3 touchdowns (I'm not counting that Hail Mary interception on the last play of the scrimmage against him).
I thought he looked sensational and just like a future first-round-level quarterback.
He made every kind of throw you could ask a quarterback to make. He threw balls to the opposite hash marks that showed off his arm strength. He threw the ball over the middle. Hell, he threw the ball over the middle in a tight window on a deep post that should have been a touchdown. He was accurate. He was creative. He was damn good.
Manning does it all with a calmness that is unmistakable and it's a trait that some very successful players never obtain. When he drops back and his eyes look down the field, there's no anxiety in his body when he has to check down to the intermediate and short-area targets. The field never gets overly busy and his body language in the pocket is such that his feet don't get sloppy as a byproduct of anxiety.
You'd have to be Ray Charles not to be able to see the skill set that has so many people drooling over the idea of seeing him play more. This isn't the same as Maalik Murphy's 9 of 13 performance from last year for a lot of reasons, but Murphy not being more skilled than Manning in some pretty important ways is not a piece of the discussion to overlook.
I'd flat out be lying to you if I said I didn't wonder a few times during the spring game whether Manning is the best quarterback on campus right now. That's what happens when a guy goes 10 for 10 to start a scrimmage and one of his two interceptions in the first half was perhaps the best throw he made all day.
According to the Oxford Dictionary, "to know" something is to be "absolutely certain or sure" about it. Of all the things I am absolutely certain about Ewers, I am not absolutely certain that he's better than Manning right now. As I established above, Ewers has been a very good quarterback, but he's not great. Manning also isn't a great quarterback yet, but is anyone going to argue that he might not be very good right now?
That's very good vs. very good. One guy has more experience with game-proven success, while the other guy might simply have a higher upside, both as a collegiate player and NFL Draft prospect.
I'm just going to say the quiet part out loud ... Quinn Ewers is the starting quarterback for the 2024 Longhorns, but I don't KNOW that the 2024 Longhorns will be better with him at quarterback than they would be with Manning as the starter.
I don't know that at all.
No. 2 - Let's talk about Ryan Wingo ...
Back in early January, there was a feeling among those who do high school recruiting rankings for a living that Ryan Wingo wasn't one of the more impressive wide receivers that attended any of the major all-star games.
Hell, On3 ended up ranking him as the No. 92 overall prospect in the country and the 15th-best wide receiver in the country, while the other three services had him ranked between 32-48 in the national rankings.
As I watched Wingo on Saturday, all I kept thinking about was who these other wide receivers were on the national landscape that had people thinking Wingo was a JAG among the elite because he looked like a player that appears to be on the verge of being a big-time college player.
Consider these words from a former starting quarterback at Texas ...
Man, I don't know who the top three receivers are for the Longhorns going into the off-season, but Wingo has to be in that group, right? Texas doesn't have three receivers better than him. If so, I didn't see that on Saturday. Wingo is wildly athletic and looks so much more polished than he was supposed to be just a few months ago (attaboy, Chris Jackson?).
He simply has to be on the field. Period. And you better believe Sark knows it.
This might not be fair to Matthew Golden, but it feels like Wingo, Johntay Cook, Isaiah Bond and DeAndre Moore are the top four at the moment and all of those other dudes probably need to get very clear in very short order that wherever playing time might be able to be earned, it's not going to be at the expense of No. 5.
No. 3 – Trey Owens is very good...
Here's a hot take... I thought Trey Owens looked as good on Saturday as Maalik Murphy did in last year's game.
The kid can play. He's been on campus only a few months, but his talent is pretty obvious. He's just going to have to be patient and here's hoping that kid has some Guns N' Roses on his playlist.
On some level, Owens knew when he signed with Texas five months ago that he would likely redshirt this season and then wait until Arch Manning finishes his career before he truly gets a chance to start barring injury. At best, that's 2026. Most likely it’s 2027. There's a world out there where a new starter (post-Arch) isn't needed until 2028.
Of course, as soon as next season, he's the next man up. He is a very important player in the program because if anything were to happen to Arch, Owens is QB1 of a top-5 program.
Yet, if Owens keeps playing like he did on Saturday, he'll have schools knocking on his door and everyone in burnt orange will hope he channels his inner Axel Rose.
p.s. There's a reason why Sark and this staff feel like taking two quarterbacks in this class would be a good idea.
No. 4 - Mindless randomness after watching the spring game a second time on Sunday morning ...
... I have no idea how to rank the receivers. Johntay Cook is the best player in the group right now, so he has to be No. 1, while Ryan Wingo is No. 2 or No. 3 (at worst). Those two are 100 percent safe on the Wide Receiver Rotation Island. I kind of feel like DeAndre Moore and Isaiah Bond can be slotted anywhere between 2-4. Then there's Matthew Golden. Then there's Silas Bolden arriving in June. That's six freaking legit dudes and I haven't got the slightest clue how Chris Jackson and Steve Sarkisian are going to distribute reps.
... I've got questions about Bond's hands and chemistry with his quarterbacks, but I don't have questions about his speed. That touchdown reception from Manning was exhibit A in my mind about why he has to be on the field a lot this season. That's game-changing stuff right there.
... Manning throws a better, more natural deep ball than Ewers. I just don't think Ewers throws the same kind of ball to Bond for that 75-yard touchdown that Manning threw.
... Sark shouting from the rooftop after the spring game to the media that he's calling in all the reinforcements at defensive tackle that he can get his hands on is such an indictment to the seven remaining defensive tackles that were on the roster for the spring game. Five of the seven are entering either their third, fourth or fifth seasons as college football players.
“I think, obviously, the depth on the defensive line is not where we need it to be,” Sark said. “We don't have enough bodies; there's not enough big humans. I mean, it's simple math, so we've got to address it.”
... If I'm allowed to say the quiet part out loud about the defensive tackles, I wonder what third-year sophomores Jaray Bledsoe and Aaron Bryant think about the incoming Portal guys that are 1,000-percent being brought in and immediately slotted in front of them? Both players were given endorsements by Sarkisian in the last week or so, but neither guy really caught my attention in the spring game and if either was truly surging in a way that had the coaches thinking they were about to become difference makers, the coaches probably wouldn't be eager to block that projected rise. Those two have to be asking some internal questions right about now.
... Before anyone hits me up about how talented and athletic Bledsoe is ... save it. We all know he can do flips and stuff. What we don't know is whether he has a definitive role on this year's team outside of maybe 12-15 snaps per game or whether he even has that. He's kind of in the same place that Austin Jordan is in at nickel.
... It was kind of disappointing that not a single young player on the defense flashed on multiple occasions outside of Colton Vasek and Kobe Black.
... Freshman five-star Xavier Filsaime did not look like a guy that will be playing much against Michigan in week two. He simply looked like a guy who’s been a major college player for a couple of months.
... We didn't really learn much about the running backs on Saturday other than Savion Red is the clear third-team running back, while all of the other players rotate among the first and second teams.
... Say what you want about the defensive play on Saturday, but the first-team defense absolutely held the first-team offense with Quinn Ewers in check before Ewers left after two series. The first-team defense gave up nothing and had a pick-six.
... The second- and third-team offensive lines did a very good job in pass protection. Some of those pockets were incredibly clean.
... I have to believe the coaches will watch film today and really wish they had found a way to land Jabbar Muhammad. The No. 2 cornerback spot was wildly up and down on Saturday.
... Justice Finkley flashed more in the re-watch of the game than I thought he did when watching it live. It always felt like he was close to making a play, but it never quite happened. Yet, he kept almost getting close. He gave Cam Williams a few "almost" moments.
... That touchdown throw from Manning to Bond in the fourth quarter was something else. Manning just kind of flicked the ball right into Bond's breadbasket in stride. No quarterback makes it look that easy.
No. 5 - Updated Scholarship Board...
While we wait for more movement to occur, in both the incoming and outgoing varieties, here's an updated look at the Scholarship Board.
No. 6 – Spring Games, Spring Games and More Spring Games ...
... It doesn't sound like Maalik Murphy has won the starting quarterback job at Duke under new coach Manny Diaz, but he probably exited Saturday as the favorite for the job.
... Former Purdue receiver Deion Burks, who the Texas staff didn't prefer over the Portal receivers they took, was the star of the Oklahoma spring game, as he caught five passes for 174 yards and 2 touchdowns. When OU starting quarterback Jackson Arnold wasn't completing passes to Burks, he was 5 of 15 for 59 yards. So, yeah ... Burks is an important player for the Sooners. This an OU team with some talent, but it's hardly oozing with it.
... Conner Weigman completed 5 of 14 passes for 47 yards in the A&M spring game ... woof.
... That A&M defensive line is very, very good, Walter Nolan's departure be damned.
... Michigan's quarterback play is an absolute mystery. Alex Orji is the favorite to be the starter, but he looks every bit like just a guy. He completed 11 of 17 passes for 95 yards and had one rush for 18 yards. Here's what was written in the Detroit Free-Press:
"Orji moved the blue team down the field well on his first drive. His first two passes − one for Max Bredeson, one for Tyler Morris − were behind his intended receivers, but he'd settle down with a screen pass and then a curl on fourth down to Bredeson to keep the drive alive.
His best pass was a 12-yard out-route to Payton O'Leary from the left slot, then two plays later, Orji made his most athletic play of the drive as the play broke down and he scrambled out to his right and out-ran the defense for 18 yards and a touchdown. For what it's worth, he was wearing a white non-contact jersey, and it appeared as though a few defenders could have tackled him if they'd been allowed, however, it was ruled a touchdown.
Orji came back in for two possessions in the second half. On his first, he attempted one pass and moved well in the pocket to create a throwing lane, but overthrew his intended receiver by a good five feet to lead to a punt.
On the next, U-M attempted four straight runs and on fourth-and-1 from the 47, a handoff to Benjamin Hall got stuffed for a turnover on downs.
With the offensive line and skill position groups separated, it's hard to make any true assessments, but Orji didn't seem to do anything in particular to hurt his perception as the clubhouse leader for the job."
No. 7 – Odds and Ends …
... Texas Baseball continue to hate Friday nights, but it found a way to win another series this weekend against TCU. With OU sweeping BYU (novel concept!), the Longhorns are three games back in the loss column in the Big 12 standings, but cold end up being tied for second in the league before the end of the day if Texas tech beats West Virginia. Never say never, right?
... Everyone held serve this weekend at the top of the Big 12 standings in softball. The Longhorns swept Kansas and just need to keep winning, while waiting for the Oklahoma/Oklahoma State series to unfold however it will unfold.
... One Last Goodbye...
No. 8 – BUY or SELL …
(Buy) I don't know if that was the intention going in. Considering the defenses "won" the previous two scrimmages, things could have gone the other way, in easy theory. Yet, the byproduct of what happened definitely adds more pressure on Quinn. That's unavoidable after the performance that Manning had.
Keep in mind that Sarkisian could have yanked Manning in the name of controlling the narrative, similar to what he did in 2021 with giving Casey Thompson 42 pass attempts in the name of trying to give him some momentum on a day when Hudson Card looked like the better of the two quarterbacks. Sark wanted to play with his newish toy and he had fun in doing so. It just wasn't optimal for the buzz that will now follow Manning into this season.
(Buy) Yeah, I kind of feel that way,
(Buy) It's a reminder to all of the 5-stars out there that it's gonna be lit in the passing game when Ewers is gone.
(Buy) He's definitely playing two full seasons before going to the NFL. I think there’s a better chance that he finishes his eligibility than there is of him leaving after the 2025 season.
(Buy) Equal.
(Sell) Not if very solid means guys that are going to be on the two-deep.
(Buy) Sure. I think that's right. I expect major progress from a year ago and it's important to not lose sight of what happened in the other 14 practices.
(Sell) I don't think so.
(Sell) That feels a little soon, but he's got a real future in due time.
(Sell) Nothing really jumps out to me.
(Buy) He'll have games this season when his stats will suggest he's WR1.
(Sell) A "good chance" is a subjective interpretation, but I'd say that while there is "a chance" it could happen, I won't go far as to say there's a "good chance."
(Buy) The Longhorns have a little something something with him.
(Buy) LFG!
(Buy) It's not a slam dunk, but sure.
(Buy) Sure.
(Buy) I think there will be room for it.
(Buy) We can all see the obvious, the more and more I think about it.
(Buy) It's a top 4 roster in college football. Full stop.
(Sell) I don't believe his going to his wedding was some sort of projection towards him leaving. Where is he going to go where things are better?
No. 9 – Scattershooting all over the place …
... It's Draft week!!!!!!
... BWAHAHAHAHA
... On a court with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, Minnesota's Anthony Edwards was the best player in game one of the Minnesota/Phoenix series.
... Jarrett Allen (16 points and 18 rebounds) was a damn beast in game one of the Cleveland/Orlando series.
... If Josh Hart is going to shoot 50% from 3 and New York is going to grab 23 offensive rebounds ... my Sixers ain't gonna be around long.
... Just how bad are things with the Astros right now?
... Freaking Jude Bellingham...
... Austin FC had one hell of a smash and grab in Houston this weekend, but a smash and grab on the road will do just nicely when you're otherwise one of the worst teams in the league.
... Kids in elementary school treat new episodes of Bluey like Taylor Swift fans treat overnight album drops.
... Here's hoping John Candy has all the peace he can handle in the afterlife. We all still really miss him.
No. 10 - Top 10: Prince ...
What can I say? I just found myself wanting/needing some Prince this weekend.
Yes, I've done a Prince list in the past, but it's been roughly half a decade, so why not?
Away we go ...
Honorable Mention: I Would Die For You, I Could Never Take the Place of Your Man, Delirious, Raspberry Beret, U Got The Look, Bambi, Insatiable, Diamonds and Pearls, Cream, Uptown, Black Sweat, Controversy and Sing o' the Times
Top 10 Prince Songs
10. Little Red Corvette
9. I Wanna Be Your Lover
8. The Beautiful Ones
7. 1999
6. If I was Your Girlfriend
5. Kiss
4. Darling Nikki
3. Let's Go Crazy
2. Purple Rain
1. When Doves Cry
Bonus Prince: After-Hours
10. Cream
9. Lady Cab Driver
8. ***** Control
7. Sexy MF
6. Adore
5. Erotic City
4. Scandalous
3. Get Off
2. Do Me, Baby
1. Darling Nikki
Dang you for finding a way to increase my Kleenex expenditures several time a year and God bless you for the same as you've been doing to me since the late 90's..
You're in the exact place that God had in mind for you.
Never understood why I Could Never Take the Place of Your Man doesn’t get more love.
Man reading about the futility at OU, a&M, and Michigan quarterback positions it warms my heart and it makes me appreciate the job Sark has done. We're just taking it in stride like it's no big deal. Great spot to be in
For anyone that ever attended one of our parties in college and P**** Control got blasted, I apologize. I know of one instance in particular that a friend had to take home a girl he just brought back from the bar after our antics from this song playing. That song turned us into blood thirsty pack of wolves.
Is it possible the reason why the defense “won” the other 2 scrimmages is because Arch wasn’t at the helm? It just seems like everything is more difficult with Quinn for some reason.
Good stuff @Ketchum .
I have to razz you a bit, but is the term “saying the quiet part out loud “ going to become the new “taking someone’s cornbread “ phrase that you like to hammer for months ?
It's not the worst idea of all-time.
After looking at the DT room, everyone should get why Sark didn't break the budget to keep Bo.
