Officially just 14 days (2 weeks) until the Longhorns host the Colorado State Rams in the season opener. I've returned from the matrix with my 2nd iteration of the 2024 offensive projections. With two weeks of fall practice in the books, and a bevy of notes from practices and scrimmages to build off of, this will include expected role growth and historical knowledge of how Coach Sarkisian has attacked usage, both while at Texas and Alabama as an offensive coordinator. The reason for using Alabama is pretty simple, it's his most recent job, and the only job with comparable talent on offense.
If you want to revisit my Way Too Early Projections from April 1st, be my guest.
The above image portrays the past five seasons in which Coach Sarkisian has overseen as the Head Coach at Texas and the Offensive Coordinator at Alabama. 2021 was the only season with less than 800 plays run and a massive 56% rush attempt split, easily explained by having Bijan Robinson and first-year starter Casey Thompson at quarterback, with lackluster weaponry, outside of Xavier Worthy. There is occasionally food for thought regarding if you allow more points, you will get more opportunities on offense, that hasn't been the case with Sarkisian at Texas. In 2023, the Longhorns held the football for an average of 31:13, good for 34th in the FBS, in 2022 that number was 27:18 and in 2021 Texas ranked 110th in FBS at 28:05. Translation, allow fewer points by possessing the ball more.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers is entering Year 3 and Head Coach Steve Sarkisian is entering Year 4. Both are subjectively important to building projections and understanding a team's trajectory/goals. As you can see in the 2024 projections, I have accounted for 16 games played, this infers a National Championship appearance. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Texas has the 4th best odds to win the National Championship, behind Georgia, Oregon, and Ohio State.
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If you want to revisit my Way Too Early Projections from April 1st, be my guest.
The above image portrays the past five seasons in which Coach Sarkisian has overseen as the Head Coach at Texas and the Offensive Coordinator at Alabama. 2021 was the only season with less than 800 plays run and a massive 56% rush attempt split, easily explained by having Bijan Robinson and first-year starter Casey Thompson at quarterback, with lackluster weaponry, outside of Xavier Worthy. There is occasionally food for thought regarding if you allow more points, you will get more opportunities on offense, that hasn't been the case with Sarkisian at Texas. In 2023, the Longhorns held the football for an average of 31:13, good for 34th in the FBS, in 2022 that number was 27:18 and in 2021 Texas ranked 110th in FBS at 28:05. Translation, allow fewer points by possessing the ball more.
At Alabama in 2020 and 2019, the average time of possession was 30:55 and 30:10.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers is entering Year 3 and Head Coach Steve Sarkisian is entering Year 4. Both are subjectively important to building projections and understanding a team's trajectory/goals. As you can see in the 2024 projections, I have accounted for 16 games played, this infers a National Championship appearance. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Texas has the 4th best odds to win the National Championship, behind Georgia, Oregon, and Ohio State.
This is premium content. Please subscribe to view.
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