Peter Zeihan: Deep in the Cold of Texas

[Schloss2Texas]

It’s not odd but perfectly reasonable to draw the line at taller turbines since vista is perhaps the most primordial—not to mention democratic—of all aesthetic mediums. The dimension of height is the most intrusive of this medium. Blades do not belong with mountains and thunderheads in the landscape of our fundamental human consciousness.

But taking off mountain tops and covering a vegetated landscape with dirt pads and roads is better?? Lmao. Tell me, how much time have you spent in mountainous regions and have you seen the before and after when those developments come in? Furthermore, windmills are frequently photographed in scenic view sheds across the west. That cannot be said for coal and natural gas pads.

 

[Schloss2Texas]

No

Actually she did.

 

[anon_i5889d0py7a2i]

Agreed. But much easier said than done In a deregulated market. The capital costs of nuclear are MUCH higher than wind or gas. What venture capitalist is going to invest in generation that will only sell on the market during extreme conditions. Deregulation provided Texans with great rates. But you can’t have your cake and eat it too. And I don’t see any way Texas opts out of deregulation.

Isn’t deregulation and regulation a cyclical thing?

 

[Schloss2Texas]

True.

Poster said 2 million but she did raise money.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.kh...torm/285-92d8fb77-a3ba-46f8-8265-fcd807a20f6a
you were saying

 

[anon_i5889d0py7a2i]

Yes but ours isn't set up for that and because of it Wind failed when needed the most.
Why we didn't pay for the winter version I have no idea. But the end result was failure.

Everything failed.

 

[New Ulm Horn]

Isn’t deregulation and regulation a cyclical thing?

Lol. Texas is not going to put the genie back in the bottle.

 

[HawaiianHorn]

Sorry but that's just not right.....It's pretty obvious just looking at the actual ERCOT production data both 1 week before and during the Arctic Outbreak which energy source failed and which came to the rescue/ramped up.

Since 2014 ERCOT retired 5GW of coal generation. Peak demand has grown by 9 GW since and to fill the gap, ERCOT decided to replace with 15 GW of wind. Gas generation was built as basically backup for new wind generation which almost entirely failed this week. The shift to wind is the number 1 culprit in making our grid less reliable.

Sorry you're missing the point. Wind was never intended to be available during the winter therefore how it performed or didn't peform is irrelevant to this crisis. They obviously felt they had enough. They didn't. Wind has nothing to do with it.

 

[New Ulm Horn]

Who runs them wasn’t my point. It’s the fact that because they are so nuclear forward they easily meet their own internal power needs. As an added bonus they are also the worlds largest net exporter of electricity generating > 3 billion Eros annually. French electrical generating costs are the lowest cost per kw/hour in the world.

Maybe you didn’t understand the meaning of runs. The French government OWNS them. Of course that matters in our political climate. And particularly so in a market such as Texas. Not sure where you got your stats but the avg cost per kWh in France is .21. It’s .11 in Texas. They are not the most expensive but certainly nowhere near the cheapest.

 

[McLovin327]

Zeihan strikes me as a chronic over-simplifier and exaggerator. It makes it easier to deliver snappy opinions when everything is so simple.

Austin got over a foot of snow this week?

I like Zeihan but he definitely over-simplifies and at times it leads to some wildly off base projections. Gotta take his writings with a grade of slaw.

 

[Bevotex]

Maybe you didn’t understand the meaning of runs. The French government OWNS them. Of course that matters in our political climate. And particularly so in a market such as Texas. Not sure where you got your stats but the avg cost per kWh in France is .21. It’s .11 in Texas. They are not the most expensive but certainly nowhere near the cheapest.

you do know that the United States Government owns and operates the Tennessee Valley Authority and TVA’S energy portfolio includes 3 operating nuclear stations (Browns Ferry units 1-3, Sequoyah 1&2, Watts Bar 1&2) as well as moth-balled Bellefonte 1&2?
I agree with your cost numbers. Makes you wonder if that extra dime per kWh the French pay assures better grid stability than what folks in Texas have felt.

 

[haywud]

Do you not see the MUCH LARGER drop off in red....

Lol it’s the only that saved us from a complete failure, without it we’d all be in the dark! The first catalyst was wind which created an enormous strain on the system including shutting down some Nat Gas Well compressors tied to the electric/wind grid. Retiring numerous reliable Coal and Nat gas generators over past 10 years and replacing with intermittent wind got us into this debacle, there is no disputing that!

 

[New Ulm Horn]

you do know that the United States Government owns and operates the Tennessee Valley Authority and TVA’S energy portfolio includes 3 operating nuclear stations (Browns Ferry units 1-3, Sequoyah 1&2, Watts Bar 1&2) as well as moth-balled Bellefonte 1&2?
I agree with your cost numbers. Makes you wonder if that extra dime per kWh the French pay assures better grid stability than what folks in Texas have felt.

You do understand we are talking about Texas. It’s a deregulated market. Texas has chosen price over stability. I suppose we could choose to try and put the toothpaste back in the tube but I don’t see that happening. In theory I agree with your premise.

 

[Coelacanth]

. . . this coming week Texas will demonstrate that in some circumstances wind is actually more reliable than supposedly rock-solid, non-intermittent, fully-dispatchable fossil-fuel driven power. That unexpected lesson will lodge itself into Texans' collective subconscious and color infrastructure decisions for years.

Now that we're a couple weeks out, I'm just wondering whether Ziehan's lesson--namely that "wind is actually more reliable than supposedly rock-solid, non-intermittent, fully-dispatchable fossil-fuel driven power"--has indeed lodged itself in Texans' collective subconscious?

What's the word on power sources returning to pre-ice age levels?

 

[chastok]

dude, everything was fail. it's as if you didn't even read the column.

That’s not exactly true. NG was down 40%. Wind was barely above 10%. If half our production gets to be wind, how do you plan for the loss of say 90% of it?