THREE THINGS WE LEARNED
1. Texas’ offer to Keithron Lee has Lee’s attention
Wide receiver Keithron Lee picked up a Texas offer a little less than two weeks ago and after taking some time to step away from the media spotlight and catch his breath, we were able to connect with Lee this week to get his thoughts.
Classified by Rivals.com as an athlete out of Bryan Rudder, Lee is being recruited by Texas (and the other schools that have offered) as a wide receiver. The 5-10, 170-pounder has seen interest from other schools pick up of late, with programs like Texas, Arizona State, Ole Miss, Texas Tech, Baylor, Washington and Tennessee getting in the mix in recent weeks. The Texas offer came in on November 11.
“I was on FaceTime with coach (Tom) Herman. He said they liked my play, liked what I could do at the slot position,” Lee said. “He just thought the Longhorns could be a great option for me.”
This one’s still in the beginning stages and Lee is planning to take things slowly and not sign until February. A one-time UTSA commitment, Lee said the contact with Texas started with Jay Valai, and then receivers coach Andre Coleman got in touch the day he got the UT offer. Lee said he’s still building his relationship with the UT staff, but liked what he knows of the Texas coaches so far.
“I know that they have a new offensive staff. Coach Coleman, this is his first year, so he’s kind of still building to bring in new guys,” Lee said.
With late interest coming in from new schools and COVID shutting down official visits, Lee is taking a patient approach to the recruiting process. He’ll try to decide in January or possibly December if he’s ready, before signing in February. As of right now, he’s looking at roughly eight schools and said he’ll list some favorites in the coming weeks. Texas will make the cut.
“They’re definitely in there,” Lee said. “I’m building that connection as the days go on.”
Last week, Lee did a virtual visit with Texas as the UT staff looks to develop a quick bond.
“They just kind of go through the campus, what it would look like your first year,” Lee said. “Then obviously talking about the money side of it (name, image and likeness), kind of explaining to your parents the situation like they would on a real visit.”
Lee seems to be keeping a pretty open mind, but the Longhorns are definitely in the mix.
“Coach Herman, I think he definitely coaches winning football,” Lee said when asked what has UT in good standing with him. “It’s not too far from home but not too close. It’s Big 12, and like I said, it’s just winning football in my eyes.”
2. COVID has thrown a wrench in the plans of 2022 RB Tavorus Jones
When I spoke with running back Tavorus Jones late in the summer, the 2022 Rivals250 member mentioned he could look to make a fairly early decision, and Texas was on top of his list.
Three months later, COVID has thrown Jones and his El Paso Burges teammates some curveballs, and his recruiting timeline has been pushed back. Due to game cancellations, Burges has been able to play only four games all season. Jones sat out the first two contests due to injury and his team started the season at 0-2. Since returning to action, Jones has helped his team bounce back with two straight wins with 100+ rushing yards in both contests (on the year he’s rushed for 335 yards and 6 TDs, averaging nearly 10 yards per carry).
On the recruiting front, Jones holds more than 20 offers and is keeping an open mind, but he does say that two schools are recruiting him harder than others, and those two have made a strong early impression.
“I’ve been having good relationships with the coaches at Texas. Also at Florida,” Jones said. “Those are a couple the schools I’ve been talking to the most.”
Stan Drayton did a good job of getting Texas’ foot in the door early in this one, and Jones said he has a lot of trust in Drayton and a strong relationship with the UT running backs coach.
“I know he’s produced some really good talent. When we talk, he’s mainly just giving me good lessons,” Jones said. “He’s talking to me about how I’d fit in their offense. The conversations are pretty short, but they’re good talks.”
The idea of committing early is no longer on the table for Jones. He now says he’ll wait things out a bit and hopefully take some visits when the current restrictions are lifted. Texas, Penn State and Florida are trips Jones says he knows he’d like to take.
The 5-11, 205-pound Jones is part of a deep 2022 running back talent pool in the state, including backs like Jaydon Blue, Emeka Megwa, Jamarion Miller and Jadarian Price, who all hold UT offers. Texas could very well look to take two backs in next year’s class, and Jones said he’s fine with that scenario.
“They asked me when we first started talking and I told them I’m fine with that,” Jones said.
3. This week’s game feels like a play-in game for Texas and ISU, and has even bigger implications than that for the Longhorns
Normally, when you’re talking about a program’s biggest game in years, you’re usually referencing some colossal match-up between power programs looking to get a leg up in the race for the national title … think Alabama-LSU in recent years, or maybe USC-Notre Dame back when those programs were both among the nationally elite. Hell, harken back to those Texas-OU clashes when Mack Brown and Bob Stoops were running their respective programs if you’d like.
This week’s Texas-Iowa State game in no way resembles those contests mentioned above as far as national relevance, but make no mistake about it … this is shaping up to be one of the most important games in years for the Longhorns, and its outcome could dramatically shape the future of the Texas program.
Tom Herman would probably tell you this is only one game and his focus is on Iowa State and Iowa State alone, but nobody in their right mind believes that. Friday’s clash with the Cyclones is pretty much a play-in game for a spot in the Big 12 Championship to face off with Oklahoma. If Texas gets the win, the task of winning in Manhattan and Lawrence looks to be a near formality at this point. If Iowa State wins, by my math, the Cyclones clinch a spot in the title game and they’d need only to take care of business at home against West Virginia the following week to solidify their position as the Big 12’s top seed.
Per ESPN’s FPI predictor, Texas has a 77 percent chance of making the conference title game with a win on Friday. Frankly, that number seems way too low. Lose the game and the Longhorns’ chance of backdooring their way into the title game fall to 2 percent.
It’s a huge game from a conference standings perspective, but that may actually be the secondary storyline in this one. As has been discussed (or speculated, more accurately), Tom Herman is likely coaching for his job and the most common thought is that a loss in this game (or any of the final three regular season contests) will have the power people at Texas calling for change. If Herman can’t make the conference championship game in years three or four of his time in Austin, those who want to go in a different direction will have all the ammunition they need. On the flipside, if Herman is able to lead this team into a rematch against Oklahoma, it’s starting to feel more and more like that just might be enough to keep him around for at least another year. Beat OU, and it feels like a near certainty that he returns, but I’m not sure a berth in the Big 12 Championship Game (and a decent showing on that stage) isn’t enough to do the trick.
It’s truly fascinating that everything has come to this, and we’re discussing this game as having this type of implications. But that’s where 2020 has brought us … that three hours on Friday afternoon could basically determine whether or not this season is labeled a success or a failure, and could ultimately determine the leadership of one of the top programs in all of college football. Friday is that big.
******
TWO QUESTIONS
1. What to make of recruiting in the 2022 class?
I get questions all the time on how recruiting is going to look with next year’s class, or more specifically, which guys could be a part of that group. At this point, the simple answer is that there is no way to tell since there are so many unknowns with the future of the Texas program.
Texas took a huge hit with the loss of Quinn Ewers when he decommitted less than a month ago. Unsurprisingly, Ewers committed to Ohio State last week. Wide receiver Phaizon Wilson followed Ewers’ decommitment from Texas with one of his own, and top national wide receiver prospect Caleb Burton committed to Ohio State on Monday night, literally as I was writing this section.
This is where things get really, really tricky for the decision-makers at Texas. If Herman wins out and is retained, the Longhorns will almost certainly re-gain some recruiting traction, but how much is realistic? There will still be questions about Herman’s long-term future at UT (he’ll probably sit atop just about every “hot seat” article you see from national publications) and I just don’t see a scenario where 2022 recruiting suddenly takes off in the months between now and next September. If Texas goes out in the 2021 season and plays a dominant brand of championship football, essentially eliminating any questions about Herman’s job stability, you could see a late surge with members of that 2022 class, but it’ll probably be way too late with many of the top players that are currently on the radar. The guess here is that Texas would still field a solid class, but I have a hard time envisioning a scenario where it would be a class that would compete with the nationally elite, especially with so many other programs in the region playing well and recruiting well.
Obviously, things could be completely shaken up if there’s a coaching change, but it’s a bit premature to be making any predictions on who could possibly be in the 2022 class based on potential coaching hires. We’ll cross that bridge if/when there’s an appropriate time.
It’s another interesting dynamic in what will probably be tough decisions that need to be made … just how much of a factor recruiting will be in the ultimate decision on Herman’s future remains to be seen. I have a hard time believing it will carry nearly as much weight as the product on the field, but boosters and Texas officials are probably taking notice of recruiting more than ever so it’s a topic that can’t be completely ignored.
2. How does the Big 12 stack up after last week’s action?
1. Oklahoma (Last week: 1) – I said it two weeks ago, but OU is playing at different level than the other teams in the league right now.
2. Iowa State (Last week: 2) – Texas gets the Cyclones in Austin, otherwise we’d probably be looking at an OU-ISU rematch for the Big 12 title game.
3. Texas (Last week: 4) – As stated above, this weekend’s game is huge on several levels.
4. Oklahoma State (Last week: 3) – I’m a bit surprised the Cowboys couldn’t even put up a fight against OU.
5. West Virginia (Last week: 6) – They get OU at home this week, but I doubt it matters.
6. TCU (Last week: 7) – Things really fall off for these last five spots, but TCU may be the best of the worst.
7. Texas Tech (Last week: 8) – Technically, the Red Raiders are on a one-game win streak so that’s something.
8. Kansas State (Last week: 5) – A shell of the team it was earlier in the year.
9. Baylor (Last week: 9) – Terrible.
10. Kansas (Last week: 10) – More terrible.
******
ONE PREDICTION - Savion Byrd to Oklahoma
Duncanville offensive lineman Savion Byrd announced on Sunday that he’ll make his commitment on the first day of the early signing window, December 16. I don’t have a great feel for where Byrd will wind up, but that early commitment date seems to indicate that Byrd has a pretty good idea of where he’ll wind up, and that would seem to all but eliminate Texas. I’ve had Oklahoma as a sneaky pick in this one when many others were pointing to SMU or LSU. None of those three would surprise me, but I’ll stick with Oklahoma as my prediction.
