THREE THINGS WE LEARNED
1. Texas will host several prospects on Friday
The recruiting dead period officially ends at midnight on Tuesday, which means we should see an uptick in recruiting action for the next week before another dead period begins on August 1.
The Texas coaches will take advantage of the one-week window and host a number of prospects on Friday. The Longhorns will welcome several current commitments, but the big story we’ll be tracking is which uncommitted players make it to town.
The plans of Javonne Shepherd are always tough to pin down and they usually change multiple times, so he’s a guy we’ll watch closely this week to see if he’s able to make it in. If Shepherd does wind up visiting, it will almost certainly solidify Texas’ already strong position atop his list. If Shepherd isn’t able to make it to Austin, it’ll be a minor disappointment since the staff was close to getting him on campus again, but I’m not sure it matters much in the grand scheme of things. Texas still feels like the runaway leader in this one.
Linebacker David Gbenda, at last check, was still trying to lock in his plans but he should be able to make it in. If he makes visits, it could push Texas out in front in a recruitment that has been tough to read between Texas and Texas A&M. Gbenda plans to take his time with the process so don’t look for any fireworks this weekend, but getting him around the coaching staff yet again can only help UT’s chances.
Out-of-state safety Noa Pola-Gates, a Rivals250 member, will be one of the bigger names in attendance. Pola-Gates coming in is interesting for a few reasons, not the least of which is Texas already having one out-of-state safety commitment (Chris Adimora) and the Longhorns’ strong standing with guys like Jalen Catalon and Lewis Cine. Texas has recruited Arizona exceptionally well in this cycle, so it won’t be a shock at all to see the Longhorns shoot up Pola-Gates’ list after this weekend’s visit.
The 2019 prospects will dominate the headlines because there’s more urgency with those players, but the bulk of this weekend’s recruiting impact will actually be focused on underclassmen. Look for Texas to host a large number of 2020 prospects – guys like Zachary Evans, Jaylen Jones and Bryson Washington are expected in – and if things go as expected, Friday’s visit could help the staff lay some very important foundation pieces.
It’s the last big recruiting event of the summer for Texas and while it should be productive overall, we’re not likely to see a rush of breaking news in the way of commitments. Instead, it’ll be more about the staff chipping away with 2019 targets and setting themselves up for success with some of the top 2020 players on their board.
2. The true freshmen should have a big impact on the 2018 season
Don’t look now, but we’re a little more than a week away from the start of actual football practices. With that in mind, it’s time to start talking some actual football as we gear up for what should be a fun season to follow.
The new redshirt rules allow the coaches a lot more flexibility to play true freshmen and I’d expect most of the 2018 class to see the field at some point, so let’s try to rank the players who could have the biggest impact on the team this fall.
1. Ryan Bujcevski – The punter gets the top nod. It’s entirely possible that Bujcevski is a game-one starter and if things go well, he could lock in his spot for the next few years.
2. B.J. Foster – Texas has some secondary talent, but Foster is just too good to keep off the field. I expect him to play early and often.
T2. Caden Sterns – Same story as Foster.
4. D’Shawn Jamison – We’ll see whether Jamison gets his first action as a receiver or a DB, but I expect him to find his way onto the field. My guess is that he’ll be a nickel back long-term, so that’s where I’d like to see him get his first action.
5. Anthony Cook – Texas needs to break in its young DBs and Cook had a good spring, so he should play quite a bit.
6. Jalen Green – Same situation as Cook.
7. Dele Adeoye – The team really doesn’t have a ton of linebacker depth, so Adeoye will likely be thrown to the wolves a bit to see how he holds up.
T8. Cameron Rising – Sam Ehlinger and Shane Buechele should be able to hold down the top two spots, but the coaches may as well throw their two freshmen out there at some point to see how they fare. Who knows, maybe one catches lightning in a bottle the way a guy like Major Applewhite did and shows that he’s the QB of the future for this program.
T8 Casey Thompson – Same story as Rising.
10. Keondre Coburn – I may have him slotted too low. Texas needs one (or both) of its defensive tackle signees to be productive early on.
11. Demarvion Overshown – I could see him moving up the list as the year goes on.
12. Moro Ojomo – I have a sneaky suspicion that I may be underrating Ojomo. He’s sort of my sleeper pick in this class.
13. Keaontay Ingram – He’ll play, but the running back room is pretty crowded all of a sudden.
14. Mike Williams – I’m intrigued to see how he’ll be used with his size and athleticism.
15. Brennan Eagles – This may seem a little low based on his talent level, but the reps at outside receiver may be tough to come by.
16. Al’Vonte Woodard – Similar story as Eagles, although Eagles may be more ready right now.
17. Cameron Dicker – Tough one to slot here. This guy could wind up winning the job, or he could sit behind Joshua Rowland for a year. I’m thinking it’ll probably be the latter.
18. Junior Angilau – Could he get an early look inside?
19. Joseph Ossai – Terrific athlete with a high ceiling, but there are only so many reps to go around.
20. Byron Hobbs – I expect this to be more of a learning year for Hobbs as his body continues to develop.
21. Josh Moore – This one’s tricky. I could see a scenario where he plays more and should be higher on the list, especially if he’s able to contribute out of the slot.
22. Daniel Carson – Lots of upper-classmen depth at DE.
23. Malcolm Epps – He’s different than any tight end on the roster so he could get some packages, but I expect the coaches to lean on the more experienced players.
24. Rafiti Ghirmai – It’s always tough for young offensive linemen to crack the rotation.
25. Reese Moore – Love his upside, but he’s probably a couple years away.
26. Christian Jones – Similar story to that of Ghirmai and Moore.
3. Your questions answered
For sake of argument, let's suppose we don't get any of the RBs we offered so far. Who are the other RBs in Texas we COULD go after that have not been publicized?
If Texas misses on all the backs that have been offered, that would be a tough pill to swallow but it would make the recruiting pitch to Zachary Evans in the 2020 class pretty easy. In the 2019 group, I could certainly see the staff circling back on a guy like Darwin Barlow, who has visited UT previously. Deondrick Glass has been on the radar for a while and while he technically has been offered, Texas hasn’t really pushed there so he’d be another guy worth watching closely, especially if he has a big 2018 season. There are actually a couple pretty good backs in West Texas and the panhandle as well (King Doerue and Deion Hankins).
B/S: We are evaluating several stud OL prospects that we haven't heard about yet and the offers will go out soon.
I’ll sell on the offers going out soon, but yes, I suspect Herb Hand has a lengthy list of linemen on his radar to evaluate in the fall. Hand has been in touch with a few out-of-state guys, including Dohnovan West out of California, but I’m expecting an in-state guy or two to land on the radar in the fall.
If a big-time recruit or his father joined OB and got caught up in the moment and blasted.... would you suspend them?
Not if they promised to give me the inside scoop.
Has the ideal type of offensive line recruits changed since Hands hiring? How does his desired skill set for personnel jibe with the previous o-line coaches that recruited the current group of players at his disposal?
Good question. So far, it seems like it’s pretty much business as usual. Hand is going after the same guys just about every other offensive line coach is targeting, although he is casting a wider net with some top national prospects and his reputation is opening some doors. Like most coaches, Hand does seem to favor the more “college ready” linemen who possess good size rather than targeting the longer, leaner players who will need a couple years to add weight and develop their bodies.
How are we looking at running back recruiting and Noah Cain?
Things have been pretty quiet with Cain of late but I believe he may be visiting Penn State this coming weekend. A June visit to Georgia moved the needle some but this one is a long way from being resolved. Cain has maintained all along that he’ll wait until December to decide, after he’s taken all five official visits. Texas should get one of those visits. If the Longhorns show improved play on offense this fall, and solid offensive line play, I like Texas’ chances. If the offense struggles, the chances go way down and he likely lands elsewhere. I’d very cautiously put my money on Texas right now.
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TWO QUESTIONS
1. Will Texas get a commitment this weekend?
Any time you have a big recruiting event where a lot of prospects are going to be on campus, there’s going to be a chance for a commitment. That being said, if one goes down this weekend, it would be a bit of a surprise since most of the Longhorns’ remaining 2019 targets have said they’re going to wait it out a while before deciding.
There’s always a chance that someone could pull the trigger sooner than expected – like a Javonne Shepherd if he was to make it in – but if you’re looking for a surprise commitment this weekend, your odds are probably better that some 2020 prospect pulls a huge surprise and makes a move. Who would that be? Hard to say right now, but I’d say the odds are against anyone pulling the trigger this weekend.
2. Who will be Texas’ next commitment?
If a commitment this weekend would be a surprise, who might be next to pull the trigger in favor of the Longhorns?
The obvious answer is Baton Rouge University Lab standout Makiya Tongue, but there are some moving parts in that one that we’ll be following over the next few weeks. Tongue, who is down to Texas, Georgia and Arizona State, will take an unofficial visit to Georgia this weekend. He’ll likely visit next week, before the dead period begins.
This weekend’s trip to Georgia could be telling. If the Bulldogs push for a commitment, Georgia could very well surge to the top of his list, but there’s been chatter from people who cover Georgia that UGA’s numbers are pretty tight. If Georgia doesn’t “push” and Tongue sticks to his timeline of deciding before his senior season starts, this one looks good for Texas. But he did insinuate last week that he’s not 100 percent locked into making an August decision. Again, lots of moving parts.
I’ll stick with my prediction of Tongue until I hear things have changed, either with Georgia or with the timing of his decision. If it’s not Tongue, it becomes a heck of a lot harder to predict because the other top guys on the board have all indicated they’ll wait things out for a while. Of course, we are talking about recruiting so it’s always wise to expect the unexpected.
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ONE PREDICTION – Texas’ win total for 2018 will be …
Coming out of Big 12 Media Days, I wrote last week that I was buying the optimism that Tom Herman and his players were selling. Herman wasn’t exactly proclaiming that his team was going to be world beaters this fall, but I sensed that he has a quiet confidence about this year’s group. I’m sooooo close to bumping my win total up to nine games, but I’ve been burned too many times over the last few years.
My gut tells me eight wins is a reasonable expectation, with a couple key swing games that will ultimately determine how this year is viewed. Two stretches of games – USC/K-State/TCU and Oklahoma State/West Virginia/Texas Tech will tip the scales in this one. If Texas can win two of three from both stretches, nine wins (or more) seems likely. If they split out of those six games, eight wins feels like the smart bet.
