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A different year. Different head coach. Different players. Yet, the stakes are very similar.
Former Texas football coach Charlie Strong was fighting for his job with three games remaining in the 2016 season. Many members of the fan base were counting down the days until Tom Herman left Houston and led their program. Strong’s team was sitting at 5-4 after a two-game win streak, but still had to face West Virginia, Kansas and TCU. After a four-point loss against West Virginia, it was well-known if Strong simply defeated Kansas, a very bad team, he would keep his job. Of course, we know what happened in Lawrence. I will never forget standing outside the visiting locker room and witnessing the tears from Strong’s wife and support staff members. Everybody knew Strong was going to be terminated. Heck, Strong’s staff cleared out their offices prior to the season finale. The final three games of that season sealed his outcome.
Four years later, Herman is fighting for his job with three games remaining in the season. Many members of the fan base are counting down the days until Urban Meyer leaves his job at Fox Sports and joins the Longhorns. Herman’s team is sitting at 5-2 after a three-game win streak, and has games remaining at Kansas, home versus Iowa State, and at Kansas State. Unlike Strong, nobody knows the magic number of wins necessary for Herman to remain at Texas. Well, nobody outside of people behind the scenes who are preparing for a possible change.
Herman is coaching for his life.
This is not what anybody anticipated after Herman was hired. Herman was killing it at Houston. His teams knocked off Oklahoma, Louisville and Florida State like the giant killers they were. The acquisition of Herman was supposed to signify a new day at Texas. Texas may have settled for Strong after not acquiring Nick Saban, but Herman was viewed as the next great young coach.
I still remember what former Texas president Greg Fenves said at Herman’s introductory press conference.
“Over the past three years, Coach Charlie Strong has led our football program with class and with deep core values and with a passion for the young men on his team. His commitment to academics, to the campus, and to the Austin community was evident in everything that he did.
“While the results were not as we or he expected or desired, Coach Strong never wavered from being a consummate role model. I spoke with Coach Strong this morning, and I wished him well and his family the best.
“Today we begin a new chapter in the storied history of our great university as we welcome Tom Herman and his family back to Austin as the head coach for Longhorn football.
“Before Mike introduces Tom, I want to briefly outline how the process unfolded. I admire and respect Coach Strong and was hoping for a bright future for Longhorn football. At the same time, I had an obligation to the university and to our fans to do due diligence in case a change had to be made, which included conversations to identify and evaluate potential candidates.
“Now, coaching changes happen quickly, and we knew we would have to be ready to act if needed. Based on my assessment, it became clear to me that Tom Herman would be our target. Mike Perrin and I made the decision about Coach Strong this past Friday evening, and I decided not to inform the Coach that night after an emotional game for him and the members of his team. I did make the decision to move forward with the change regardless of where the coaching search would take us.
“Late Friday night, Mike and I met with Coach Herman for the first time. We talked for several hours to determine if he was the right coach for the university and if we were the right university for him. The answer was yes to both questions. The terms of the contract were negotiated and finalized on Saturday. Later Saturday morning, Mike informed Coach Strong of our decision, and as he expected, he handled the decision with class and with professionalism.
“Beyond that brief overview and out of respect for those involved, we will not air further details about the search, but what is important is in the end we got our man, and that man is the hottest coach in college football today, and he is here to lead the Longhorns. Tom is a Texas ex, who coached under Mack Brown, and his success at all steps of his career are indicative of the success we expect for our Longhorns.”
Herman is fighting to avoid a similar coaching obituary/wedding announcement.
Herman’s record at Texas is 30-17 (.638 winning percentage). Clearly, it is better than Strong’s 16-21 record during his tenure. Nobody can deny he improved the program.
However, 38 losses since 2014, Oklahoma’s continued dominance in the Big 12, plus the rise of Texas A&M this season, has many Texas fans pouring out what is left of their burnt orange Kool-Aid.
Barring a repeat of 2016, Texas should easily defeat Kansas on Saturday, giving the Longhorns a 6-2 record and four straight victories. That would leave Iowa State and Kansas State.
If Texas finishes 7-3 and misses the Big 12 Championship Game, it might be a win-win for everyone involved. Even if Herman lost his job, there are programs that would love to hire a coach who turned around a downtrodden program that missed bowl games in consecutive seasons before his arrival. They will gladly take three straight bowl victories, solid recruiting, and a 7-3 finish during a pandemic after seven new coaching hires. It might not be good enough at Texas, but what is one man’s junk is another man’s treasure.
Nevertheless, if Herman finishes 8-2 and advances to the title game, December might be the most fascinating month since the attempt to acquire Saban.
After the loss against Oklahoma this season, and Texas falling to 2-2, I conducted a poll on Orangebloods. I asked everyone to predict the final record for Texas, and nearly 1,500 members responded.
Here were the results:
8-2 – 2.8 percent
7-3 – 5.4 percent
6-4 – 51.6 percent
5-5 – 33.9 percent
Other – 6.3 percent
There were more votes for a below .500 finish than 7-3.
Obviously, Texas could finish 6-4, and the majority of skeptics would be right.
However, what if Herman runs the table and exceeds the expectations of 93 percent of fans who gave up on the season?
If that happens, Herman backs everyone into a corner, and the optics of firing a coach after a successful season, regardless of how much Longhorn fans hate seeing a rotation at running back and receiver, will not look good.
Heck, there were some college observers who believed Strong never received a fair shot at Texas. Imagine what will be said if Herman is fired after an 8-2 regular season record.
Cesspool Part II, Herbie?
I hate to make predictions because OB has mastered the bookmark tab. Yet, I will continue to say this is 2020. The moment you think something is predictable, you are waiting nearly two weeks for presidential election results. Yet, if Texas defeats Kansas, the Longhorns have a defense good enough to slow down Iowa State and Kansas State and win both games. If Sam Ehlinger plays better down the stretch, there is no doubt Texas will win run the table, and finish the regular season with six straight wins.
Suddenly, Herman becomes Bane from The Dark Knight Rises.
Herman may enjoy watching the world of his skeptics burn.
There are three games remaining in the regular season.
Herman is coaching for his life.
Funniest Things You Will See This Week
This officially makes Alex Trebek greater than Bob Barker (bad language alert)
We need something to laugh about post-election, but refrain from having a political conversation (bad language alert)
This dog is living his best life
When a player does not follow Yancy McKnight's offseason workout plan
Sports On A Dime
1. Former Texas defensive end Tim Crowder was recently a guest on my podcast. When we discussed the Longhorn’s current rotation at running back and receiver, Crowder said, “My thing is that as a coach, in order to help the team win and do the best for the team, you have to put the best player on the field as much as possible. That's what it really comes down to. You don't want to hurt anybody else's feelings, but it is what it is. They need to get better if they’re not in a rotation. The best players play. If you want to win, you put the best players on the field as much as possible. The probability of winning a football game goes up if you have the best players on the field the majority of the time. That's the thing. You have to play the best players as much as possible. They only come out when they need a break, and you put them right back in there. That was our philosophy when I was there. Coach [Mack Brown] would tell us all the time [they are] not in charge of the depth chart, you are. It based on where you practice and what you do in these games. If you want to play, get better in those two areas. If a guy beat you to the punch, he beat you to the punch. He got on the field and he made something happen so we're not going to take him off the field. We are cheating the team, and we're cheating your teammates, if we take a guy out that has 80 years on eight carries. It’s not we’re going to rest him and going to sit him down and let somebody else go in."
2. More from Crowder: “That's not fair to the team, and that's fair to that guy because as a football player, you get in the groove of the game. You get a chance to mess up and redeem yourself. I get to figure out what he [opponent] doesn’t like. Wait a minute, that nose guard likes to peek in that backside, so I’m going to stay front side a little bit more, but if you keep coming out constantly, you don't even get to see that. It’s the same thing as a receiver. At the end of day, football is about a bunch of little I's playing one-on-one. Just like how you were in the backyard with you and your buddies, or at the neighborhood park. Y'all was a team, but it was a bunch of little I's going to war with each other out there. You were figuring him out, and he was figuring you out, but you were going at it. But if that never happens, you never get a chance to figure anybody out.”
Here is a link to the free podcast
3. Crowder told me he would not be surprised if DeMarvion Overshown entered the NFL draft after this season. He said Overshown is the prototypical linebacker NFL teams want – a converted defensive back with speed. I think he is absolutely correct.
4. Since they are student-athletes, we might as well recognize Sam Ehlinger’s recent academic achievement:
5. Speaking of Ehlinger, the Senior Bowl will be a great opportunity for NFL coaches and general managers to spend time around him after the season. NFL coaches do not focus on the draft during the regular season. Instead, they wait until after the season to start watching film and accessing players. When you hear about a player’s draft stock prior to the conclusion of the regular season, take a mental note, but know it is not the gospel. The information fed to reporters during that time frame is typically from regional scouts who are not in the war room during the draft. Decisions about college players are made after the season when the people who matter within an organization start their evaluation process.
6. As a person who covered Aqib Talib from the moment the cornerback was drafted by Tampa Bay in 2008, I would have never predicted he would work in television one day. Not after he was accused of firing a gun at his sister’s boyfriend in 2011. Definitely not after I saw him being physically restrained by a teammate in the locker room after charging a reporter he did not like. If Talib has evolved, props to him.
7. This is for the old-school NBA fans (pay attention to the Hawks bench)
8. If you need any proof the game has change, here I is something that will make you throw stats on the window when comparing players from different eras
9. Terence Crawford kept switching between orthodox and south paw stances against Kel Brook on Saturday, and I thought he was just wasting time. When he switched back to southpaw, Crawford ended the fight. It is time to see Crawford against Manny Pacquiao or Errol Spence Jr., assuming he gets past Danny Garcia on December 5.
10. I did not wake up at 4:10 a.m. to watch the Turkish Grand Prix, but plan to watch the replay today. However, I was not surprised to wake up and learn Lewis Hamilton joined Michael Schumacher as a seven-time world champion after winning the race (fourth straight championship and sixth in eight seasons). This guy is impossible not to love
