Calm.
Three hours after everyone in college football believes that a person whose name rhymes with "Pawn Darp" attempted to hijack the Texas/Oklahoma to SEC dream with a calculated leak while Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher and athletic director Ross Bjork were on standby at SEC Media Days, armed with quotes to damn the very idea of what was being reported... all was calm.
Just a few hours earlier, there was a combination of excitement and silence coming from the Longhorn athletic department and University of Texas officials. The little fish were buzzing, while the big fish were mum.
Suddenly, information was starting to flow freely as one high-level source told me mostly unprovoked that this would all go down in the next week, with Texas and OU sending notices that they were not renewing media rights deals at the conclusion of the 2024-25 athletic calendar. Oh, and the Longhorn Network would go bye-bye.
In the rush to process what I had been told, I missed something in the moment, but by the end of the night and certainly by Thursday morning, it had become very clear to me.
There was no panic. No fear of anything going sideways. It was impossible not to realize that the school, once nicknamed "red tape" by a five-star defensive tackle's mother on an official visit to Texas when school officials wouldn't pick up an entire tab for a set of family, friends and entourage, wasn't worried about... red tape? Hurdles? SEC votes? Nothing?
Three hours after the message had been released to the public, the leadership in Austin and Norman were relieved. Like a man that had lived a lie, only to find out that the truth wasn't actually that much of a problem, officials from both schools were not only thankful that this news that was always going to be tough to deliver had seen the light of day, but they were able to go on the offensive.
Suddenly, not only did Texas folks want to talk, but they wanted to give the details.
Why?
Because the train was so far down the tracks on this that not even a maroon "Hail Mary" (if we can even call it that... see below) could stop it. Simple as that.
Let's talk about some of the details...
a. Kevin Eltife might just be Frank Erwin's long, lost lovechild. It cannot be overstated how much juice he currently owns at the top of the power structure and how thirsty the school has become to change the dynamics that adversely impact the athletic programs, with a special nod to football and football recruiting. From the Board of Regents to the president's office to the athletic director, everyone is in lockstep. On top of all of this, his political chops are being counted on in any battle with A&M chancellor John Sharp, a man known for his own savvy. Not since the days of Erwin has a single person carried this much weight behind the scenes in Austin, and it has led us to this moment.
b. A&M has been counting on some of its SEC brothers to help block any move by Texas to enter the SEC, but there's just too much money at stake and the unofficial pursuit of Texas has gone on for too long to think that any gentlemen's agreements between conference friends means much. The money I've heard mentioned with TV revenues for all of the schools in the SEC with Texas and Oklahoma in the cupboard is north of 70-75 million per year.
c. There is a strong belief that the Longhorns and Sooners not only know that they will get into the SEC, but that they'll do so with a unanimous vote. When push comes to shove, Wednesday might have been as much about A&M stating their true feelings before being asked to fall in line as a good SEC soldier than it was actually about trying to stop Texas from getting in. No one in Austin or Norman seem concerned that there is a roadblock that will stop them. Maybe A&M votes against it, but no one seems to care.
d. A source told me on Thursday that the rubber met the road on discussions with the SEC the very moment that the Big 12's TV partners indicated that early negotiations on a new TV deal were a non-starter. "That was the moment that we knew there could not be more waiting around. The sentiment was shared by (OU)," one source told me on Thursday.
e. Speaking of the boys in Norman... they don't give a ****. You want to talk all gas, no brakes, just look at OU's role in this. If it took three hours for the UT side to come to grips with the fact the entire world now knew about the plans that have been in the works for some time, it took the Sooners about three minutes. I had UT sources telling me about the loud victory parties that were taking place in the OU athletics offices once the news broke. Hell, in a world where the Aggies didn't obviously leak this story, you'd halfway suspect that the giddy Sooners might have because they are in YOLO-mode.
f. The Longhorns have Greg Abbott on their side in a big, big way. This is where Eltife being the 2021 version of Frank Erwin is critical. I've never seen the Longhorns in a better position with political allies at the statewide level in my nearly three decades of covering the team. I was told that high-level donors from multiple schools reached out to Abbott's office on Thursday for support and were told that he isn't getting in UT's way.
g. I spoke with athletics officials and reporters connected to three other Big 12 schools, and they were all stunned by what happened yesterday. One person told me that they believed that Big 12 commish Bob Bowlsby was in Lawrence on the KU campus when the news broke and that Bowlsby didn't see it coming from a mile away. Two different sources told me that the schools that they cover had emergency meetings this morning to discuss what had transpired in the past 24 hours. Neither source had the slightest clue what would come next for the school that they are covering.
h. The Big 12 was not expecting Texas and Oklahoma to no-show the emergency league meeting that was called to discuss the events of the last 24 hours. Neither team wants to listen to anyone in the league about this. The message sent was every bit as loud as the notice of not extending the media rights agreement will be when it arrives next week.
i. Texas and Oklahoma are hoping that chaos takes place from here and that all of the other schools being forced to fend for themselves will open the doors for the league to dissolve organically and in a way that allows for the Longhorns/Sooners to enter the SEC before 2025. Expect both schools to sit back and watch the mess that they've created for others actually pave the way for both schools to get everything they want, but in a quicker timeframe than current contracts would suggest are possible. Texas and Oklahoma are counting on the other eight schools to cry uncle and admit that staying together for four more years is unsustainable. The Longhorns and Sooners will then do a collective shoulder shrug and say, "Well, if you think it's best..."
j. Speaking of shoulder shrugs, not a single Texas source we've communicated with has indicated that anyone cares that the Longhorn Network will dissolve ahead of schedule. There's so much money in all of this that everyone seems to understand... it's cool.
k. If you're wondering about the Kansas and Kansas State situations, it's a complete mess because of the mixed board of regents situations for both schools. However, there's a belief that if one school (KU) has better options than the other (KSU), the school with the options will be allowed to do whatever it needs to do to secure its future. Basically, KSU is about to be left to die in the wheat fields.
l. There's real movement for all of this to be settled by the middle of August in an effort to not distract from the season. The train is moving very, very fast, folks.
m. And finally... I asked a high-level Texas source about what he thought would happen with the Big 12 and if it mattered whether the league added more teams or if it dissolved altogether. The response? "Ultimately, we don't really care." Ouch.
*****
(From Suchomel)
With the talk of Texas and Oklahoma possibly bolting for the SEC, we thought we’d check in with other Rivals.com sites to get the pulse of their readership. As you might expect, the news was mostly met with support, intrigue and a bit of curiosity, save for a couple programs (you can probably guess one of them).
Alabama (via Tony Tsoukalas) – “This would certainly be an exciting move and one that gives the SEC even more power in the college football landscape. From an Alabama perspective, that factor alone makes it enticing. As a beat writer in the SEC, I’m just excited about more opportunities to eat quality brisket!”
Auburn (via Bryan Matthews) – “It definitely generated a lot of interest and several threads on our message board. I'd say the opinions are mixed, but if Texas and Oklahoma do join the SEC and they keep the division format, it means Auburn and Alabama would likely move to the East with all of their traditional rivals, which would definitely excite Auburn fans and even things out from a scheduling perspective.”
Florida (via Nick de la Torre) - "The general vibe from Florida fans is, ‘How will this affect recruiting?’ Florida fans have become increasingly frustrated with how Dan Mullen and his staff are recruiting. The initial reaction is these are two more schools that are already recruiting better than Florida about to be given the SEC badge to further help them in those recruiting efforts. In terms of football, I think fans like good games and good matchups, so there is some excitement there.”
Georgia (via Radi Nabulsi) – “Georgia fans for the most part love the idea. UGA had already scheduled home and away series with Texas and Oklahoma for the future. Both of those announcements were welcomed by the fans. Georgia fans, warranted or not, feel the SEC is the home of the nation's best football. Adding two of the nation's top programs just feels like the rich getting richer. Of course, the devil is in the details. The No. 1 question was not whether it was a good idea, but rather how would the divisions or pods shake out? That Texas has the nation's top overall athletic program and Oklahoma has a series of eight national titles in one sport or another makes both programs appealing far beyond football.”
Kentucky (via Justin Rowland) – “It seems like Kentucky fans would be pretty excited about this. There are some who believe it would be bad for the football program, and the road there would indeed get tougher. But it's never been easy for UK football and the SEC. It would improve SEC basketball, and that would be a good thing for Kentucky. This would be really lucrative and the last round of expansion created the kind of financial situation that has really helped the overall athletics program.”
LSU (via Jimmy Smith) – “The SEC fan base is a bit unique in that there is a true sense of pride attached to being a member of the conference. Yesterday’s news played right into that, with many LSU fans seeing an opportunity to develop the first true super conference, and giving their Tigers even more premium matchups throughout a season.”
Mississippi State (via Kelly Quinlan) – “State fans are not exactly excited about the idea that the SEC and particularly the western side would get harder with the addition of Texas and Oklahoma. However, if they go to a pod system and split it up differently, they are okay with it. Overall everyone seems annoyed and displeased with the idea of adding two teams with the pedigree of the Longhorns and Sooners to the SEC.”
Missouri (via Gabe DeArmond) – “There are three different attitudes. There is still a segment of Mizzou fans that wants nothing to do with the Big 12 or any school in it and never wants to play any of the teams or be associated with them in any way. That's not a huge segment, but it exists. As for the less vitriolic, for the most part, Missouri fans would be fine with the addition of Oklahoma. I don't know if they'd be thrilled, but they'd be okay with it. The overwhelming fan opinion is that they don't want to be in a league with Texas and don't like it at all. Obviously fans are driven by emotion, and the decision makers will be far less driven by that. And it's my opinion Missouri would support the additions, regardless of things that might have been tweeted on Wednesday.”
Texas A&M (via Mark Passwaters) – “This is pretty predictable, but most A&M fans are disgusted at the idea of Texas and OU joining the SEC. They feel like it’s giving a hand up to a rival who has fallen behind, at least in part to being in an inferior conference. Some are also pretty amused that the two schools who talked the most trash about A&M going to the SEC, that they weren’t needed and the SEC is overrated … are now trying as hard as humanly possible to join them.”
Tennessee (via Brent Hubbs) – “I would say the fan base is intrigued. As is the case with everyone in college football, the fans have plenty of questions. Questions from the number of conference games to who would be moving to the Eastern division. How does the SEC handle the Longhorn Network? Would the league renegotiate the new TV deal as two more schools would be getting into the pie. Plenty of concerns about how it would affect recruiting. SEC schools have gone into Texas and the Midwest selling them on leaving to come to the SEC. How much harder would this move make recruiting? And finally could SEC schools block the move? Like everyone around the country lots of questions on a move that would drastically alter the landscape of the sport.”
Vanderbilt (via Chris Lee) – “The reaction has been mixed. I think most fans, if they take their team-colored glasses off, certainly understand why a partnership makes sense—and no doubt, it makes the league stronger and more interesting. But putting the colored glasses on again, Vanderbilt is a school that’s struggled to complete in football for the last 60 years and its basketball program (once the pride of the fan base) has been mired in misery for several years also, and I think the addition of those two teams freaks a lot of folks out because it makes the hill to even respectability that much tougher. From a baseball standpoint, it won’t matter much—they’re arguably the top program in the country and that won’t change as long as Tim Corbin is there—but certainly both schools have a lot to add there, too.”
******
Well, my recruiting section suddenly became way less interesting after Wednesday’s report of UT and OU talking with SEC officials, but there are some recruiting notes of interest to discuss, including the possibility of a few upcoming defensive commitments for the Longhorns.
Let’s start with an update from Jeremy Patton previewing his upcoming decision on July 31. The Tenaha linebacker officially has a final five and he weighed in on each of his finalists …
Michigan – “What put Michigan on my list, I would say the visit. The visits in general helped everyone out. Doing Zooms was good, but not like getting a real feel for real people. When I got there, the first night, it was like, ‘Nah this isn’t what I was used to.’ But as the days went on, I saw the campus and had breakfast, coach Harbaugh stood out to me. He’s really different. A real genuine dude, but the weird type. The first thing he did was sit right by me and said ‘I’ll grow on you.’ They have some really good people at Michigan.”
Baylor – “Going down to Waco, it’s right up the road, talking to coach Aranda, he’s a really genuine guy. They have really genuine people, which makes the decision really hard. Other than that, the whole community of Waco, it really felt like a home. Everybody was really friendly, made you feel welcome. And it’s not too much bigger and different than Tenaha.”
Texas – “UT, going to that visit, that was the first visit ever. I didn’t know what to expect, but when I got there I was blown away. They got straight to business. Coach Choate, coach Sark, they’re genuine dudes. Coach Sark at dinner would come sit with me and pops and would ask me everything that had nothing to do with football. He would talk about how they would develop me, just normal questions. They treated us like they knew us forever. Coach Choate is straight-forward, tells you what it was going to be, could be, what it wasn’t going to be. He doesn’t beat around the bush, gets straight to the point but at the same time is really genuine.”
LSU – “I’ve been talking to LSU. I didn’t get to come down there like I wanted to for my official. I was going to take an unofficial but they’ve been keeping in contact. What they did a couple years ago, the tradition there, what they’ve done on the field. I feel like LSU is someplace if I go there, I have to go there and find out if I’m a dog. I like that competition.”
Arkansas – “Really the main thing that’s kept them in my top five is how they’re defense is built around linebackers. Coming in, there’s a lot of room for early opportunity, having a lot of film. They say you can come make some big plays and I’d like doing that in the SEC.”
Patton says he’s still genuinely trying to figure out his final decision, but with his decision date rapidly approaching I think it's a very safe assumption that his mind is pretty much made up. He’ll visit Texas on July 30. His mom will accompany him since she wasn’t able to make it to the UT official visit. Assuming mom likes what she sees, I see no reason at all to change my FutureCast pick from Texas.
Patton and Derrick Brown will both announce their commitments on July 31. According to Patton, it wasn’t necessarily a coordinated plan the way Cole Hutson and Connor Robertson’s announcements were, but the two linebackers did talk before releasing their commitment dates.
“It really just kind of worked out like that. We were at Texas at the same time and we’ve been cool ever since. He’s been hitting me up, I’ve been hitting him up. He asked when I was doing mine, I told him the 31st and he told me he was doing his that day too.”
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Speaking of Derrick Brown, the Texas High defender has been quiet this week despite our attempts to get him to preview his upcoming decision.
As you all know, Brown will decide between Texas and Baylor, and like Patton, he’ll make his announcement one day after visiting UT for the Texas pool party/barbecue. That can’t be a bad sign, neither can some of the social media crumbs Brown has laid that all seem to point to Austin.
I put my FutureCast pick in for Texas with Brown the same day I did with Patton, right after they finished their UT official visits. I haven’t heard anything to make me want to switch my pick on Brown from Texas to Baylor.
******
In case you missed our report earlier this week on defensive lineman Aaron Bryant, the Southaven (MS) product is planning to announce his commitment on August 26, the day before his team’s first game.
The race is down to Texas, Texas A&M and Ole Miss, and the Longhorns have a commanding lead with a little more than one month left in this one. If things stay the course and if Texas pushes for a commitment, there’s a very strong chance that Bryant adds his name to the UT commitment list, giving the Longhorns their third defensive line pledge in the 2022 class (Kris Ross, Zac Swanson). One potential hang-up here is that Bryant is slated to take an unofficial visit to Ole Miss next weekend. That could certainly change things up because Ole Miss were believed to be the leader on this one early in Bryant’s recruitment, but the Rebels are playing from way behind right now, so much so that I put my FutureCast pick in for Texas this week.
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