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Vegas has ND -10 over UT at home.

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If the game last year


I was a college strength coach in Indianapolis. There is no comparison about the weather. I was 30 at time. Had spent the previous 8 years coaching Jr. High and High School Ball in the San Antonio and Austin. When we do two a days down here we start at 6am do one practice give the kids a break and start the second practice around 10:00 am. One of the big reasons we do this is because its still above 90 at 9PM down here and those damn truf fields with the black rubber infill are 10-15 degrees hotter than the air temp.

Trust us the heat will be a factor. Saying that heat will not be a factor on the first weekend in September is just crazy. ND will have guys that have to go get IVs. Both teams will have to rotate players. This hurts us more than it hurts you because of our lack of depth.

What school? IUPUI at NIFs?

I had kids in my Indoc class from Alaska who had never been in 85 degree heat before who spent 10 weeks in July, August & September in San Antonio in which every day was a black flag day (heat index over 100) & not a single one had a problem. They dealt with it. College athletes deal with it. And you don't make excuses. If ND loses its because Texas beat them, not because of the weather. (If ND's 70 players all drop from cramps I will admit in wrong) Just like I didn't want to hear from ND fans we lost to Clemson because of the tropical storm.

I enjoy talking players, strategy & match ups.
If anyone would like to tell me how Texas will beat ND playing football I will gladly have that conversation.
 
They don't listen man they think they know everything it's like talking to a wall...

I will gladly talk football. I just don't like hypotheticals & excuses.

If you tell me Texas is going to win because they have a good Oline & dominate running game that will wear down ND & an improved D that will shut NDs high powered offense down, I will listen. And we can discuss it.
 
IUPUI doesn't have football. UIndy, the school on the southside that most people forget about. Anyway no on is making excuses. Its going to be hot you are going to have to deal with it but in my former life I was a student trainer at UT. My first game was in 95 when Pitt came rolling into town. They went through 13 liters of IV fluid that game. I don't know if ND will go through that many but I can guarantee that there will be guys in the locker room getting IVs. Again most of us are saying it won't effect the outcome of the game and most likely hurts us more than it does you. I just love hearing from all the guys up north that its not hot in Texas the first week in September
 
IUPUI doesn't have football. UIndy, the school on the southside that most people forget about. Anyway no on is making excuses. Its going to be hot you are going to have to deal with it but in my former life I was a student trainer at UT. My first game was in 95 when Pitt came rolling into town. They went through 13 liters of IV fluid that game. I don't know if ND will go through that many but I can guarantee that there will be guys in the locker room getting IVs. Again most of us are saying it won't effect the outcome of the game and most likely hurts us more than it does you. I just love hearing from all the guys up north that its not hot in Texas the first week in September

I know UIndy well, I'm a southsider. One of my friends I still train with is Eric Eads, who was one hell of a LB at UIndy. And UIndy has one of the best PT programs in the country. After I got out of the military I moved back here & went to & taught Epidemiology at IUSM.
 
IUPUI doesn't have football. UIndy, the school on the southside that most people forget about. Anyway no on is making excuses. Its going to be hot you are going to have to deal with it but in my former life I was a student trainer at UT. My first game was in 95 when Pitt came rolling into town. They went through 13 liters of IV fluid that game. I don't know if ND will go through that many but I can guarantee that there will be guys in the locker room getting IVs. Again most of us are saying it won't effect the outcome of the game and most likely hurts us more than it does you. I just love hearing from all the guys up north that its not hot in Texas the first week in September

Literally no one has said its not hot.

I've just posted statistical reality about Austin string that time of the year and compared them to tempature a common at mid day in the Midwest...and a few posters seemed to not like that data

But like I've said, I doubt heat will be a significant factor in the game
 
I actually have the ND/Texas 1996 game at Austin on my computer. I looked it up & it was on September 21st, day game. 11:11 Kickoff CST. Temp at kickoff was 72 degrees. Temperatures reaching mid 90's on the field during game. Game ended 2:30 CST. (3:19 game time)

So the theory is Texas should wear ND down in that heat? Texas led with 10 minutes to go in the game by a TD & Notre Dame dominated the last 10 minutes & won, including going no huddle the final 5 minutes, during the hottest part of the game.

That happened. No theories. Facts.
ND at Texas. Austin, TX. September 21, 1996
Notre Dame 27 Texas 24

Side note: According to South Bend weather history, the average temperature at noon the week of Seprember 19th, 1996 (the week of the game) at noon was 74 degrees.
 
Decker....I said I was just messing with you. I am sure the weather wont be any big deal. Having said that I will tell you that whatever data you have posted is flawed. Anyway, we will find out soon which of us is correct. I just hope for an injury free game.
 
Just answering a question that was raised. Luckily there was a factual answer.
Sorry if it wasn't the one you wanted.
Thank you for your analysis, but your use of a sample size of one game substantially reduces the statistical reliability of your conclusion. Could you repeat your analysis with a statistically meaningful number of games. TIA!

Or we could just settle it on the field in September.

Hook 'em
 
Decker....I said I was just messing with you. I am sure the weather wont be any big deal. Having said that I will tell you that whatever data you have posted is flawed. Anyway, we will find out soon which of us is correct. I just hope for an injury free game.

How so?

It was statistically accurate data for Austin, Texas during September (since the game is at the tail end of August)

It gave a statistical average of high temp, low temp, humidity, dew point, etc.

Seems pretty indisputable to me
(Though some here insist on trying to debate statistical data with anecdotes and think it's effective/meaningful)
 
Literally no one has said its not hot.

I've just posted statistical reality about Austin string that time of the year and compared them to tempature a common at mid day in the Midwest...and a few posters seemed to not like that data

But like I've said, I doubt heat will be a significant factor in the game

You are right - it will be the humidity. Temps can be the same in Austin and South Bend but it is still going to feel vastly different. THIS is what is going to cause problems.
 
I actually have the ND/Texas 1996 game at Austin on my computer. I looked it up & it was on September 21st, day game. 11:11 Kickoff CST. Temp at kickoff was 72 degrees. Temperatures reaching mid 90's on the field during game. Game ended 2:30 CST. (3:19 game time)

So the theory is Texas should wear ND down in that heat? Texas led with 10 minutes to go in the game by a TD & Notre Dame dominated the last 10 minutes & won, including going no huddle the final 5 minutes, during the hottest part of the game.

That happened. No theories. Facts.
ND at Texas. Austin, TX. September 21, 1996
Notre Dame 27 Texas 24

Side note: According to South Bend weather history, the average temperature at noon the week of Seprember 19th, 1996 (the week of the game) at noon was 74 degrees.

I was actually at that game and if you ever spent any significant time in Texas you would know that the third week in September is when the cold fronts start rolling through. I can tell you during this game there will be a 50/50 shot that this game will be 95+ degrees at kickoff which means 110 on the field. No on one on here is saying Texas will win because ND will wear down because of the heat but the heat will impact the game because backups are going to have to play more snaps than usual.
 
Just answering a question that was raised. Luckily there was a factual answer.
Sorry if it wasn't the one you wanted.
Yes, that one data point 20 years ago is certainly statistically significant. Thanks, Brainiac. It's not like it's gotten hotter since then or anything either. :rolleyes:
 
I was actually at that game and if you ever spent any significant time in Texas you would know that the third week in September is when the cold fronts start rolling through. I can tell you during this game there will be a 50/50 shot that this game will be 95+ degrees at kickoff which means 110 on the field. No on one on here is saying Texas will win because ND will wear down because of the heat but the heat will impact the game because backups are going to have to play more snaps than usual.

I'm getting sick of this heat debate already

No one knows how hot it will (or won't) be at kick, especially not on the field (affected by not only temp but sun-shine, etc.) and we don't want to look at statistical norms for it.....but instead base things on anecdotal stories..........unless of course the specific story doesn't being told doesn't fit our narrative............then we're back to demanding a statistically signifcant amount of data points

And somehow the irony of this circular argument is going unnoticed....




Let's try to discuss something that's prehaps a little more predictable than the weather, and if nothing else, more interesting:
BACK TO FOOTBALL



Let's say that players do start going do on both teams due to heat exhaustion, cramping, or both........how does the "next man in" at each position look for Texas, and how big of a loss would be for you if he had to start playing significant minutes

For ND
#2 QB - Zaire (rJR) / Kizer (rSO) - Great (who doesn't actually start this game is still a high level CFB starter)
#3 RB - Williams (SO) - Good (not a ton of experience, but great potential and was a start of the spring)
#4 WR - Boykin (rFR) - Solid (no CFB game experience, but spent a year practicing, and looks to have major potential)
#2 Slot - Sanders (SO) / Holmes (rSO) - Good (inexperienced, but whoever doesn't start should still be a legit weapon)
#2 TE - Smythe (rJR) / Weishar (rSO) - Great (Basically a rotation of 3-4 Sophs/Juniors with great potential)
#3 OT - Bivin (rJR) - Solid (highly recruited, but limited by injuries, wouldn't be bad but nowhere near our NFL OTs)
#3 OG - McGovern (rJR) / Hoge (rFR) - Solid (talented enough, but not a lot of playing experience)
#2 OC - Hoge (rFR) / Harrell (rSR) - Good (both played a lot of center, pushed for the starting spot, and are legit)

#3 DE - J. Hayes (rSO) / D. Hayes (FR) - Concerning (extremely talented but situational, and neither has experience at DE)
#3 DT - Cage (rSO) - Good (started in place of injured 2016 during 2015, talented enough to be the starter)
#2 MLB - Barajas (rFR) - Concerning (Talented enough to start, but inexperienced at a complicated position)
#3 OLB - Martini (JR) - Solid (Defines "solid, but not great" player. Not bad but isn't a game changer. Could start though)
#3 CB - Crawford (rFR) - Good (Starting NB, would have started at NB in 2015 if not for injury. Could start at CB)
#3 S - Studstill (FR) - Concerning (Talent EE who looked good in the spring...but still a Frosh that would start by default)


What would the similar breakdown for each of those positoins/roles (#2 RB, #3 DT, etc.) be for Texas, in your guys opinion?

How do you think having to reach into those ranks for new "starters" due to the exhaustion/cramps would compare for Texas/ND?
 
Saying it won't be hot because it wasn't one time 20 years ago is great reasoning. We stand corrected, Decker.

I'm getting sick of this heat debate already.
A) There's an easy fix for that, Chief. It's a thinker.
B) Sorry but you don't get to be the arbiter or what's discussed on the Longhorn site.

What would the similar breakdown for each of those positoins/roles (#2 RB, #3 DT, etc.) be for Texas, in your guys opinion?
Not near as good as any of the ND guys. At. All. Happy?
 
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Saying it won't be hot because it wasn't one time 20 years ago is great reasoning. We stand corrected, Decker.


A) There's an easy fix for that, Chief. It's a thinker.
B) Sorry but you don't get to be the arbiter or what's discussed on the Longhorn site.


Not near as good as any of the ND guys. At. All. Happy?

Let's review what's actually happened here:
  1. I'm the one who posted actual statistical data from a credible source about what the average temperature (high and low), humidity, dew point, etc. actually is in Austin in August/September........remember that?
  2. Then a bunch of Longhorn fans wanted to discredit the statistical data with anecdotal stories ...remember that?
  3. Then someone else started posting their own anecdotal stories about the heat really not being that bad....remember that?
  4. Then the same Longhorn fans had a problem with anecdotal evidence and wanted statistical backing....remember that?
  5. None of those same fans saw the irony in their circular logic....remember that?
But yes, instead getting back to football, let's continue this circular argument about what the weather will be 3 months from now

You seem like you'd be a real joy to have a beer with.....
 
You seem like a nerd. Carry on.

And I agreed you're way better than us. That's what you wanted, right? Now detail the sh*t out of us some more on why we have no chance.
 
Let's review what's actually happened here:
  1. I'm the one who posted actual statistical data from a credible source about what the average temperature (high and low), humidity, dew point, etc. actually is in Austin in August/September........remember that?
  2. Then a bunch of Longhorn fans wanted to discredit the statistical data with anecdotal stories ...remember that?
  3. Then someone else started posting their own anecdotal stories about the heat really not being that bad....remember that?
  4. Then the same Longhorn fans had a problem with anecdotal evidence and wanted statistical backing....remember that?
  5. None of those same fans saw the irony in their circular logic....remember that?
But yes, instead getting back to football, let's continue this circular argument about what the weather will be 3 months from now

You seem like you'd be a real joy to have a beer with.....

He genius remember on the other thread where I posted the temps for the past 15 years on Sept the 4th. Let me remind you. This isn't anecdotal, this is the actual reported highs on those days.

Just for some historical perspective on Sept 4th at Bergstrom

2015 100 degrees
2014 99 degrees
2013 102 degrees
2012 103 degrees
2011 102 degrees
2010 92 degrees rain
2009 95 degrees
2008 95 degrees
2007 83 degrees rain
2006 93 degrees
2005 98 degrees
2004 96 degrees
2003 96 degrees
2002 97 degrees
2001 91 degrees
2000 109 degrees (111 on the 5th)
 
He genius remember on the other thread where I posted the temps for the past 15 years on Sept the 4th. Let me remind you. This isn't anecdotal, this is the actual reported highs on those days.

Just for some historical perspective on Sept 4th at Bergstrom

2015 100 degrees
2014 99 degrees
2013 102 degrees
2012 103 degrees
2011 102 degrees
2010 92 degrees rain
2009 95 degrees
2008 95 degrees
2007 83 degrees rain
2006 93 degrees
2005 98 degrees
2004 96 degrees
2003 96 degrees
2002 97 degrees
2001 91 degrees
2000 109 degrees (111 on the 5th)

Those are the daily highs?
Or the temps at 7pm?
Or at 9pm?
Or 11pm?

Like I said, I posted the actual statistical average of high, low, few pint, humidity, etc.

We're looking at it likely (statistically) being in the 80's at kickoff, with tempatures obviously dropping throughout the game.

Again, based on actual data, the tampathre during game time isn't likely to be something that's uncommon for afternoons in Indiana.

That's just the way it is

Sorry bud
 
Decker is right ND will be ready and dominate us the whole game and ND will leave with a victory. Got it.

Hook 'Em

Literally never said that.

Just maintained that the concept that the night weather in Austin is going to have a significant impact on the game is likely flawed.

I've seen you try to conflate those concepts repeatedly though.

Why is that?
 
Literally never said that.

Just maintained that the concept that the night weather in Austin is going to have a significant impact on the game is likely flawed.

I've seen you try to conflate those concepts repeatedly though.

Why is that?

You don't listen....you're more stubborn then an old bull. Let's just say weather won't be a problem and forget about it and let's just talk football. I speak for myself when I say no more weather talk. We can have weather talk when the actual game starts, fair enough?
 
Lets see if I can do the same thing.

QB - Shane Buechele / Jerrod Heard / Tyrone Swoops - Unknown to Bad - This team will go as the QB situation goes.

RB - D'onta Foreman - GREAT - He is the full package
RB - Chris Warren - GREAT - Might have more talent than Foreman

TE - Caleb Bluiett - VERY GOOD - Great blocker, very good hands, and just scratching the surface of learning to play the position.

OT - Kent Perkins - Good - He has NFL ability but hasn't always played to his potential.
OG - Patrick Vahe - GREAT - Freshmen AA he is a devastating run blocker with a mean streak
C - Zach Shackleford - UNKNOWN - He is a true freshmen and will likely be the weak link on this line, but he is smart with a nasty streak in him as well.
OG - Brandon Hodges - FAIR - He has come a long way, and played well during spring, but he has a lot to prove.
OT - Connor Williams - GREAT - I dare say the best olinemen Texas has had in probably 15 years. He is destined to be a very high 1st round draft pick.

WR - John Burt - GREAT - Very high NFL ability, reminds me a lot of Michael Irvin with his ability to physically dominate a DB.
WR - Armani Foreman - GOOD - He is fast and polished route runner, but he needs to work on his concentration.
WR - Collin Johnson - GREAT - The word "great" might be an understatement, he is a true freshmen, but the tools he possesses remind me of Roy Williams. Once he gets used to the college game, he will dominate.

Defense to come later...
 
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You don't listen....you're more stubborn then an old bull. Let's just say weather won't be a problem and forget about it and let's just talk football. I speak for myself when I say no more weather talk. We can have weather talk when the actual game starts, fair enough?

I'm obviously on board.

Please note where I suggested just that (~3 posts ago) and tried to shift the focus back to football.

id much rather talk about the football...I'm not returning to Austin in August for the weather!!
 
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Lets see if I can do the same thing.

QB - Shane Buechele / Jerrod Heard / Tyrone Swoops - Unknown to Bad - This team will go as the QB situation goes.

RB - D'onta Foreman - GREAT - He is the full package
RB - Chris Warren - GREAT - Might have more talent than Foreman

TE - Caleb Bluiett - VERY GOOD - Great blocker, very good hands, and just scratching the surface of learning to play the position.

OT - Kent Perkins - Good - He has NFL ability but hasn't always played to his potential.
OG - Patrick Vahe - GREAT - Freshmen AA he is a devastating run blocker with a mean streak
C - Zach Shackleford - UNKNOWN - He is a true freshmen and will likely be the weak link on this line, but he is smart with a nasty streak in him as well.
OG - Brandon Hodges - FAIR - He has come a long way, and played well during spring, but he has a lot to prove.
OT - Connor Williams - GREAT - I dare say the best olinemen Texas has had in probably 15 years. He is destined to be a very high 1st round draft pick.

WR - John Burt - GREAT - Very high NFL ability, reminds me a lot of Michael Irvin with his ability to physically dominate a DB.
WR - Armani Foreman - GOOD - He is fast and polished route runner, but he needs to work on his concentration.
WR - Collin Johnson - GREAT - The word "great" might be an understatement, he is a true freshmen, but the tools he possesses remind me of Roy Williams. Once he gets used to the college game, he will dominate.

Defense to come later...

Good stuff...always interesting to discuss, debate, evaluate, etc.

But what I was actually trying to spark in that evaluation (due to the weather discussion) was the relative quality of the "next man in" at each position

For example, at RB, most teams expect to get significant snaps from 2 payers in a standard game. So if the "heat affect" takes 1 of those Top2 RBs out with cramping, what's the relative quality of RB #3
(On the same rating scale)

Same idea for WR #4, OT #3, DE #3, etc.

The position/depth-chart for each player that I listed is before the names of the player(s)

For reference, I would ranked players on ND that I see relatively comparable to Buchele or Shackleford as "Concerning" because despite talent, you're talking about a True Frosh starting by default (after injury)

An example was D. Hayes, who was a 5* DE/OLB who EE'd at ND...but I don't see how you could be anything but concerned forcing a True Frosh into the starting lineup...since you trally don't know what you'll get.

Players like Kent Perkins were what I was classifying as "Solid". Where you're not worried about them and they could start, but they haven't convinced you they'll be reliable/quality starters at their positions.

Players you're ready to put in as reliable, high quality starters...if there is an injury that forced them into the field...would fall into the good/great categories.

For ND, GREAT was QB Zaire (if Kizer was injured) and GOOD was mainly players that started (or would have started) in 2015 who are depth becuAse of other players returning from injury (NT Cage, TE Smythe, CB Crawford, etc.)



Can you try your hand at that kind of listing?
 
I'm obviously on board.

Please note where I suggested just that (~3 posts ago) and tried to shift the focus back to football.

id much rather talk about the football...I'm not returning to Austin in August for the weather!!

I was referring to that actually. But I get it and probably most others except for some critters here. Offically 99 days till kick off!
 
Those are the daily highs?
Or the temps at 7pm?
Or at 9pm?
Or 11pm?

Like I said, I posted the actual statistical average of high, low, few pint, humidity, etc.

We're looking at it likely (statistically) being in the 80's at kickoff, with tempatures obviously dropping throughout the game.

Again, based on actual data, the tampathre during game time isn't likely to be something that's uncommon for afternoons in Indiana.

That's just the way it is

Sorry bud

No you posted the average high for the month of September. Big difference. I went back and looked there is no way to look up the historical averages for a specific week but since you want the game time temps here you go. (Weather Underground post times at 51 minutes on the hour so all times are 6:51 PM)

2015 91
2014 84 (rain)
2013 97
2012 98
2011 97
2010 87
2009 69 (heavy thunderstorm)
2008 91
2007 73 (rain)
2006 84 (rain)
2005 91
2004 87
2003 91
2002 90
2001 78 (rain)
2000 106 got down to 91 at 11:53 PM
1999 80 (rain)

That's as far back as the hourly data goes back on weather underground. Looks like unless there is rain its going to be at least 90 at kickoff which means 100-105 on the field. Cant remember it getting anywhere near 100 when I was in Indy.
 
No you posted the average high for the month of September. Big difference. I went back and looked there is no way to look up the historical averages for a specific week but since you want the game time temps here you go. (Weather Underground post times at 51 minutes on the hour so all times are 6:51 PM)

2015 91
2014 84 (rain)
2013 97
2012 98
2011 97
2010 87
2009 69 (heavy thunderstorm)
2008 91
2007 73 (rain)
2006 84 (rain)
2005 91
2004 87
2003 91
2002 90
2001 78 (rain)
2000 106 got down to 91 at 11:53 PM
1999 80 (rain)

That's as far back as the hourly data goes back on weather underground. Looks like unless there is rain its going to be at least 90 at kickoff which means 100-105 on the field. Cant remember it getting anywhere near 100 when I was in Indy.

Even if we accept the tempatures for a single hour of a single day to be a statistically dingo can't sample (it's not, a larger average is much better)...

You data suggests that several things:

1. There is about a 50% chance it's in the 80's at kickoff
(Common weather for Indiana)

2. There is about a 50% chance it's in the 90's at kickoff
(Less common in Indiana but something that happens several times every year)

3. There is a greater chance it's in the 70's at kickoff than there is that it's in the 100's

So all your data set really shows is exactly what be been say.....at kickoff the weather is likely (statistically) to be fairly comparable to mid-day summer weather in Indiana.

And if you research the 11pm tempatures (likely around when the game will be ending) you'll see that the tempatures are even more in line with Indiana weather.

The night weather in Texas isn't going to be some kind of tempature that will shock NDs players.

Thus, the weather isn't likely to be a major factor in this game.
 
Since no website has any aggregate weekly historical data I did my own. Not a climate scientist but I will lay out my methods. I went and looked at a 5 day window and got the temps at 6:51 PM from 2005-2015 and 6:53 PM from 1999 to 2004 from Sept 2nd to Sept 6th. I coded that data as 1 clear, 2 cloudy/overcast, 3 rain. That gave me 85 data points. I used SPSS to do a general linear model. Based on the data in that date range you are looking at a game time temp of around 92 degrees at kickoff, subtract about 4.5 cloudy/overcast, and about 12 for rain. Based on the model you are at around 60% clear, 23% cloudy, and around 17% rainy.
 
Since no website has any aggregate weekly historical data I did my own. Not a climate scientist but I will lay out my methods. I went and looked at a 5 day window and got the temps at 6:51 PM from 2005-2015 and 6:53 PM from 1999 to 2004 from Sept 2nd to Sept 6th. I coded that data as 1 clear, 2 cloudy/overcast, 3 rain. That gave me 85 data points. I used SPSS to do a general linear model. Based on the data in that date range you are looking at a game time temp of around 92 degrees at kickoff, subtract about 4.5 cloudy/overcast, and about 12 for rain. Based on the model you are at around 60% clear, 23% cloudy, and around 17% rainy.

Just accepting those as facts since you've already done this research... And you don't strike me as someone who would lie to prove a point like this (meant to be a compliment)

Your own model shows an average effective tempature in the 80's

.6 x (92 - 0) = 55.2
.23 x (92 - 4.5) = 20.125
.17 x (92 - 12) = 13.6

55.2 + 20.125 + 13.6 = 88.8925

Average effective Temp:
~89 Degrees
(at kickoff)


So this has been my point all along...statistically, we're looking at weather likely being somewhat comparable at kickoff to mid-day weather in Indiana (likely in the 80s) with temps then falling throughout the game.

The reality is that this kind of weather isn't something that's uncommon in Indiana or that the ND players haven't seen before

Thus, the weather isn't likely (statistically) to be a significant factor in this game
 
So now that your own data has bourn out exactly what I've been saying this whole time.....can we FINALLY move on from the weather topic?

I don't know how much more in depth we can possibly discuss it than what we just didn't....prior to the games at forecast
 
great so then add the 10-15 degrees and you are looking at temp of around 100 on the turf at kickoff and in the 90's for most of the game
 
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