- Jan 14, 2011
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No garage beer session with your buddies is complete without getting to at least one Hank Williams song on the playlist.
Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (10 Futurecasts, 7 to Texas)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
Kelvin Sampson was a .500 coach who went to the tournament one time in 8 seasons at Washington State.
He wasn’t hired for what he did at Fresno.
I asked a simple question.
He's not a part of the specific 2022 group I outlined that I was writing about.
I know but in general, when we discuss the DL for next year, he never gets mentioned. Coming out of high school, I thought he was considered better than Burke.
What about Sydir Mitchell? Didn’t see that you covered him. Is it because he’s assumed to be the starting NT?Let the wild speculating begin!
A year ago this weekend, I decided to let everything hang out in making 10 Futurecasts of the top prospects in the Lone Star State from the Class of 2024.
Now it's time to do it with the Class of 2025. Yet, before we start making future forecasts, let's look at the 10 I made last February.
1. Lake Belton Wide receiver Micah Hudson to Texas (Oops)
2. Duncanville edge rusher Colin Simmons to LSU (Oops... but yeah!)
3. Brownsboro wide receiver Gekyle Baker to Texas (Oops)
4. Waco Connally CB Kobe Black to Texas (Hit)
5. Duncanville running back Caden Durham to Oklahoma (Oops)
6. Melissa defensive end Nigel Smith to Oklahoma (Hit)
7. Copperas Cove offensive lineman Michael Uini to Texas (Oops)
8. IMG Academy running back Jerrick Gibson to Texas (Hit)
9. Roswell, Ga. Offensive lineman Daniel Calhoun to Georgia (Hit)
10. 2025 North Shore cornerback Devin Sanchez to Texas (Oops)
The first thing I would tell everyone about looking at last year's early predictions is that if you find yourself in panic mode right now over the 2025 recruiting year ... r-e-l-a-x. If there's anything that I could produce that would show you just how much things can still change between the start of March through the summer/fall/National Signing Day, it's last year's projections.
Folks, things change. Significantly.
One moment you think Hudson is going to Texas, the next moment there's commotion over a spring visit gone bad and things were never the same. One moment, Simmons looked like an LSU strong lean and the next moment he's committing to Texas in the summer and never looking back. Hell, one moment Texas is recruiting kids like Baker and Uini and the next they aren't.
Knowing that I'm probably going to be wrong on half of these, let's get to it.
1. Lewisville offensive tackle Michael Fasusi to Texas
I've been expecting this recruitment to turn into a Texas/OU battle and while I might favor the Sooners in February by a very slight percentage, I'm giving the Longhorns the benefit of the doubt on this one that they'll make up all the ground they need and then some before we get to the end of the summer.
2. Galveston Ball safety/linebacker Jonah Williams to Oklahoma
The Aggies have seemingly botched the hell out of this recruitment. There's a part of me that believes that the Aggies might get back into this one in a big way or even the Longhorns, but it's hard not to lean into OU's February momentum.
3. Mater Dei running back Jordan Davison to Texas
Sark is going to own Mater Dei before he's done with it.
4. Katy Jordan wide receiver Andrew Marsh to Texas A&M
It feels like it's going to come down to down to the Longhorns and Aggies, but the fact that he's got family connections to A&M and he's from Katy ... a notorious A&M territory ... has me going with the Aggies right now. Plus, he chose to visit College Station on January 20 instead of Austin when Texas held its only Junior Day of the month.
5. Bellville defensive tackle D.J. Sanders to Texas A&M
Rivals analyst Adam Gorney said this last week about Sanders: "Everything is pointing to Texas A&M in Sanders’ recruitment. Texas is also a contender but the overwhelming feeling is that the Aggies have all but locked up the four-star defensive lineman from Bellville, Texas, just an hour down the road from College Station."
6. Jasper tight end Kiotti Armstrong to Texas
The visit to Austin on January 20 was just the beginning. I've got my money on Jeff Banks finally landing a war daddy at the position, especially after Armstrong's teammate Tyanthony Smith signed in December.
7. Port Arthur defensive end Michael Riles to Texas
This one feels like UT's to lose at the moment.
8. McKinney linebacker Riley Pettijohn to Texas
McKinney is about to be Longhorn territory after it seemingly belonged to Oklahoma for two decades.
9. Cy Fair defensive lineman Landon Rink to Texas
There's no way this Longhorn legacy goes to OU or A&M, right? Right?
10. Summer Creek defensive end Chad Woodfork to Texas
If the No. 2 team in his recruitment is Tech, this should favor the Longhorns unless his dad played for the Red Raiders.
No. 2 - Let's talk about the defensive line ...
While there's a lot of justifiable discussion about the need for the returning members of the Texas defensive line to raise their levels of play, the Texas coaches will be able to set their watches to the expected contributions from the likes of Alfred Collins, Ethan Burke, Barryn Sorrell and newcomer Tia Sevea.
From my perspective, it's what sits behind those players that possesses the biggest set of questions. Five different third-year players from the Class of 2022 will enter the spring looking to state a strong case for inclusion into this year's plans for that group or perhaps they'll fall into the group of players we're half expecting to enter the transfer portal in the coming 10 months.
As players heading into their third seasons, the entire group should still be treated with a certain amount of patience, primarily because a handful of them appeared to be three-year projects from the moment they signed with the Longhorns. Yet, year three has arrived and it's time to start making some waves, even if we’re just talking about baby waves.
Let's take a look at the group.
Redshirt sophomore Jaray Bledsoe (6-4, 274 pounds)
2023 Performance Levels: Played in 9 games and finished with 2 tackles, 1 tackle for loss and one fumble recovery
2023 Orangebloods Defensive Productivity Rankings: Sub-Replacement Level (No. 26 on the team)
(Via PFF)
What needs to happen this spring: The first question that is going to be asked of every interior lineman in the program is whether he can play nose tackle, and that includes Bledsoe, who didn't play a single snap at the position in a season that ended seven weeks ago. Bledsoe's best position is at the three-technique, but he'll have to climb over two players in Alfred Collins and Vernon Broughton that played 3-4X as many snaps as Bledsoe at that position last year. So, can Bledsoe play some nose tackle? There's room for someone to make a move into the two-deep this spring. If not, Bledsoe needs to circle Broughton's name and make a move for his spot on the two-deep.
Redshirt sophomore Aaron Bryant (6-2, 301 pounds)
2023 Performance Levels: Played in 7 games, recording one assisted tackle.
2023 Orangebloods Defensive Productivity Rankings: No production (No. 37 on the team)
(Via PFF)
What needs to happen this spring: Bryant's snap log doesn't look much different than Bledsoe's, except Bryant actually played 5 total snaps at nose tackle. If you're Bryant, your goal has to be putting a stake down at nose tackle and earning a spot on the two-deep. How likely is that? Well, the good news is that the pathway is wide open. The bad news is that there's no sign that he's good enough to earn that role. Bryant's goal has to be to prove that he's up for the task.
Junior Justice Finkley (6-2, 250 pounds)
2023 Performance Levels: Played in all 14 games and finished with 15 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 2 sacks and a forced fumble.
2023 Orangebloods Defensive Productivity Rankings: Sub-Replacement Level (No. 17 on the team)
(Via PFF)
What needs to happen this spring: There's not really a path for a starting spot for Finkley as long as Sorrell is still on campus, but playing time could become even harder to come by if Burke starts taking snaps at DE, while Trey Moore and Colin Simmons take snaps at Edge. Finkley has to do two things: a) start playing at a higher level and b) make sure that he doesn't get boxed out of significant playing time by the duo of Sorrell/Burke. If he can continue to make strides, he could once again be the top reserve behind Sorrell.
Redshirt sophomore J'Mond Tapp (6-3, 266 pounds)
2023 Performance Levels: Played in 7 games and recorded 8 tackles and 1.5 tackles for loss.
2023 Orangebloods Defensive Productivity Rankings: Sub-Replacement Level (No. 24 on the team)
(Via PFF)
What needs to happen this spring: Tapp needs to find the light switch in a big way because it's tough to know where he's going to make an impact if Moore and Simmons make the big push at Edge that is expected. Tapp has received reps at both end spots, but there's a logjam of bodies in front of him unless he's able to make a big jump in performance levels.
Redshirt sophomore Zac Swanson (6-4, 270 pounds)
2023 Performance Levels: Played in only one game.
2023 Orangebloods Defensive Productivity Rankings: No Production (No. 37 on the team)
(Via PFF)
What needs to happen this spring: Everything. He's last on the totem pole at the moment.
No. 3 - Historical Breakdown: In-State Defensive Tackles ...
Given the deep dive we're taking on the defensive line in this column, I thought I would show everyone a look at the defensive tackle position from a historical standpoint using the Rivals rakings.
Let's look at the five-stars.
2002 - Rod Wright (Texas)
2004 - Frank Okam (Texas)
2005 - Demarcus Granger (Oklahoma)
2012 - Mario Edwards (Florida State)
2012 - Malcom Brown (Texas)
2013 - A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama)
2016 - Ed Oliver (Houston)
2017 - Marvin Wilson (Florida State)
Current 5-Stars in college football: 2023 David Hicks Jr. (Texas A&M)
Breakdown
* 75% were drafted by NFL teams and 87.5% played in the NFL
* The only player that didn't play in the NFL (Granger) was on his way to having that type of career before injuries and off-field issues seemed to cause it to stall out.
* Three of the last 5 five-star defensive tackles since 2005 have been selected in the first round of the NFL Draft and another (Edwards) was selected in the second round.
High four stars:
2005 - Roy Miller (Texas)
2007 - Andre Jones (Texas)
2008 - Jarvis Humphrey (Texas)
2009 - Jamarkus McFarland (Oklahoma)
2009 - Calvin Howell (Texas)
2015 - Daylon Mack (Texas A&M)
Current High 4-Stars in college football: None
Breakdown
* 33.0% were drafted by NFL teams and played in the NFL.
Mid Four Stars
2008 - Chancey Aghayere (LSU)
2010 - Ashton Dorsey (Texas)
2010 - Taylor Bible (Texas)
2013 - Justin Manning (Texas A&M)
2013 - Isaiah Golden (Texas A&M)
2013 - Kerrick Huggins (Oklahoma)
2014 - Deshawn Washington (Texas A&M)
2015 - Darrian Daniels (Oklahoma State)
2018 - Keondre Coburn (Texas)
2018 - Calvin Avery (Illinois)
Current Mid 4-Stars in college football: 2020 Vernon Broughton (Texas) and 2022 Jaray Bledsoe (Texas)
Breakdown
* 10.0% were drafted by NFL teams and played in the NFL.
* Active college players: 2020's Vernon Broughton (Texas) and 2022's Jaray Bledsoe (Texas), 2019's Joshua Ellison (Texas A&M/Memphis), 2021's Marcus Burris (Texas A&M), Jadon Scarlett (Texas A&M) and 2023's Markis Deal (TCU)
Low 4 Stars
2004 - Walter Thomas (Oklahoma State)
2005 - Vince Oghobaase (Duke)
2005 - Vincent Williams (Texas A&M)
2006 - Brandon Antwine (Florida)
2008 - Rod Davis (Texas A&M)
2008 - Kheeston Randall (Texas)
2010 - Eric Humphrey (Oklahoma)
2011 - Marquis Anderson (Oklahoma)
2011 - Jordan Wade - (Oklahoma)
2011 - Desmond Jackson (Texas)
2011 - Quincy Russell (Texas)
2012 - Paul Boyette (Texas)
2013 - Andrew Billings (Baylor)
2013 - Hardreck Walker (Texas A&M)
2014 - Zaycoven Henderson (Texas A&M)
2016 - Chris Daniels (Texas)
2016 - Kendall Jones (Alabama)
2019 - Joshua Ellison (Oklahoma/Memphis) - (Draft eligible)
* Active college players: 2021 Marcus Burris (Texas A&M), 2022 Jadon Scarlett (Texas A&M), 2023 Markis Deal (TCU) and 2024 Dealyn Evans (Texas A&M)
Breakdown
* 11.8% were drafted by NFL teams and played in the NFL.
High 3 Stars
2004 - James McClinton (Kansas)
2006 - Ra'Jon Henry (Texas Tech)
2007 - Chris Perry (Miami)
2008 - Damion Square (Alabama)
2009 - Joey Searcy (Minnesota)
2009 - Thaddeus Randle (Nebraska)
2009 - Siosaia Tuipulotu (Utah)
2010 - Rodney Williams (Houston)
2019 - Torrea Peterson (Oklahoma)
2010 - Cory Coleman (Texas Tech)
2010 - Damon Williams (Oklahoma)
2010 - David Johnson (TCU)
2010 - Diamonte Wheeler (Oklahoma State)
2010 - Donavan Johnson (Iowa)
2010 - Daniel Nobel (Oklahoma)
2011 - Isaiah Norton (Colorado State)
2011 - James Castleman (Oklahoma State)
2012 - Alex Norman (Texas)
2012 - Donald Hopkins (Houston)
2013 - Charles Walker (Oklahoma)
2013 - Vincent Taylor (Oklahoma State)
2014 - Trey Lealaimatafau (LSU)
2015 - Bryce English (Kansas State)
2015 - Joseph Broadnax (TCU)
2015 - Kingsley Keke (Texas A&M)
2015 - Du'Vonta Lampkin (Texas)
2016 - Jordan Elliott (Texas)
2016 - Marcel Southall (Texas)
2016 - Michael Williams (Stanford)
2016 - Ross Blacklock (TCU)
2016 - Brayvion Roy (Baylor)
2017 - Damion Daniels (Nebraska)
2017 - Corey Bethley (TCU)
2017 - Joshua Rogers (Texas A&M)
2017 - Zaccaeus McKinney (Oklahoma)
2018 - Moro Ojomo (Texas)
2018 - Dominic Livingston (LSU)
2019 - Taurean Cartr (Arkansas)
2019 - Enoch Jackson (Arkansas)
2021 - Byron Murphy (Texas) - Draft eligible
Active college players: 2022 Cedric Roberts (Oklahoma), 2022 Kris Ross (Texas), 2022 Connor Lingren (YCU), 2023 Samu Taumanupepe (Texas A&M), 2023 Ansel Nedore (Texas Tech), 2023 Jayden Cofield (Texas Tech), 2023 Riley Van Poppel (Nebraska), 2023 DK Kalu (Baylor) and 2024 Alex January (Texas)
Breakdown
* Drafted by NFL teams: Vincent Taylor (6th round), Kingsley Keke (5th round), Jordan Elliott (3rd round), Ross Blacklock (2nd round), Brayvion Roy (6th round) and Moro Ojomo (7th round)
* 15.4% (6 of 39) of all high three-star prospects were drafted by NFL teams and 18.0% played on NFL teams.
* Played in the NFL: Square, Taylor, Keke, Elliott, Blacklock, Roy and Ojomo
No. 4 - ICYMI ...
Three of my favorite videos on Orangebloods Live this week.
The Latest on 5 Star Edge Colin Simmons
LIKE THE VIDEO & SUBSCRIBE TO THE CHANNELThe leading source of all things Texas Longhorns. Orangebloods.com is home to the most active, largest online commun...t.co
Will Texas Land the #1 RB in the Country, Jordon Davison?
LIKE THE VIDEO & SUBSCRIBE TO THE CHANNELThe leading source of all things Texas Longhorns. Orangebloods.com is home to the most active, largest online commun...
What's Next For Johntay Cook?
LIKE THE VIDEO & SUBSCRIBE TO THE CHANNELThe leading source of all things Texas Longhorns. Orangebloods.com is home to the most active, largest online commun...
No. 5 - All hail, Vic Schaefer ...
Technically, there's still a lot of work to do for the Texas women's basketball team.
Part one of that work is to take out an Oklahoma team on Wednesday that beat Texas in the Moody Center last month. That will put the Longhorns in a position to take at least a share of the Big 12 regular-season title.
Part two will be harnessing the play from the last six weeks and the potential No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament that could come with it into a deep Tournament run.
That this team is in this position after losing all-everything point guard Rori Harmon is one of the most incredible season-saving pieces of coaches I've seen on the 40 Acres. This team has very little outside shooting and a bench that doesn't always go one-deep on some nights.
Yet, the Longhorns have serious guts and play out of their minds on defense. They are tough as nails.
They embody their coach
If we're doing a list of the best coaches on the 40 Acres, I'm not sure where Schaefer resides, but the roll call won't take long before we get to his name.
No. 6 - About Rodney Terry ...
Let me just state for the record a few things with regards to Texas head basketball coach Rodney Terry.
a. He was never the best candidate for the head coaching job, but Chris Del Conte and other decision makers let themselves get boxed into a bad spot last spring.
b. This season hasn't exactly been a ball of joy and losing 6 games this season by 10+ points isn't inspiring.
c. The smart money has the team barely making the Tournament and not lasting through the first weekend of the Tournament.
Those things being said, let me reiterate once again that the entire tone of this season will change if the Longhorns make it into the Tournament and win a mere two games over three games. As unlikely as it seems at this very moment, the Longhorns have a pair of players in Dylan Disu and Max Abmas that can carry a team through a pair of early Tournament games.
Before everyone gives up on the season, you might as well hang in for a few more weeks to see if Terry can lead this team to the Sweet 16 for only the second time in half a generation.
If that doesn't happen, I'll be out of things to reiterate and you guys can set stuff on fire, I suppose.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I think they still make the Tournament.
(Buy) Five-star tackles get on the field in year two. Period. If not earlier.
(Sell) Too many tricky minefields for that.
(Sell) He'll get a second year.
(Sell) I'm not sure I'm expecting that to change much.
(Sell) If you believe in Sark's culture, then the answer is no.
(Sell) That feels like an unlikely statistical anomaly that I'm not sure I would count on.
(Sell) South Carolina is undefeated. They'd be No. 1, no matter UT's record.
(Buy) There's nothing like seeing people ignore his apparent lies and poor judgment because ... sports. We need more of that.
(Buy) Yes, damnit. Not two ... just one.
(Buy) Considering how long the program hadn't even made the Sweet 16, a bird in hand is worth two in the bush, even if it means the following couple of seasons end short of something memorable. Plus, there wasn't really a sure-fire go-to-hire.
(Sell) I'm taking Blue as the future 1,139-yard runner.
(Sell) I'll take the under by one.
No. 8 – Scattershooting …
... Steve McMichael is out of the hospital and back at his home. The man doesn't know how to stop fighting.
... Rest in peace, Golden Richards.
... Consider me stunned that Eric Bienemy is close to coaching at UCLA this season.
... I dig court rushes in NCAA basketball, but it's surprising we haven't seen more bad stuff happen over the years when they occur (and I don't mean player injuries).
... I'd love to see the Longhorns get a shot at Caitlan Clark in the NCAA Tournament. She's worth the price of admission and I'm here for the fun.
... Kevin Durant is now the NBA's 9th all-time leading scorer. It blows my mind that he'll be 36 in September. Where did all of the time go?
... It's only one weekend, but Dallas FC looks like the best of the three MLS squads in the state of Texas and Austin FC kind of looked like trash.
... I'm pretty sure I watched 10+ hours of MLS opening weekend.
... Get ready for Oppenheimer domination at the Oscars in 2 weeks. It had yet another dynamite awards outing at the SAG Awards. It feels inevitable.
... Saw Nyad on Netflix this week and thought I was going to dislike it and I actually enjoyed the hell out of it. Not so much for The Color Purple. Some of the musical numbers just couldn't end soon enough. It took nights to finish it.
No. 9 – I love this man …
I've never loved any coach of any team that I've ever supported more than I love Jurgen Klopp. I've got less than 100 days before he's no longer in my life as the Liverpool coach.
Honestly, I'm, not prepared for it. Here's hoping there are a few more moments like Sunday's League Cup Final before he says goodbye.
Please don't go, Jurgen!
No. 10 - Top 10: Hank ...
Every once in a while I'll get into a Hank Williams Sr. mood. I'll hear one of the classics, it'll make me start thinking of my Little Granny and the next thing you know, I've got my Hank Sr, Spotify playlist on both random/repeat.
This weekend turned out to be one of those every once in a whiles.
Apologies to the youngsters out there, but this week's list is for those that grew up in and around honky-tonks like Mary's Place in Waco back in the day.
Here's the list...
Honorable Mention: Move It On Over, Lonesome Whistle, I'll Never Get Out of This World Alive, Moanin' the Blues, Ramblin' Man, Lost Highway, I Can’t Help It (If I’m Still In Love With You) and Honky Tonk Blues
10. There's a Tear in My Beer
When I was 13 and playing baseball on the Giants in Town and Country baseball, my coach (Ruben Banda Sr.) used to sing this song all the time in batting practice. It's stayed with me ever since.
9. Lovesick Blues
One of the songs that made him a superstar.
8. I Saw The Light
It's regarded as possibly the greatest country song ever written about faith. When I was a freshman in high school in 1990, I had a teammate named Abdul that would often break out in this song on the football field and in the hallways of McCallum.
7. Jambalaya (On The Bayou)
No. 1 on the charts for more than three months, everyone from Elvis to Garth Brooks to Fats Domino to Brenda Lee has covered this song.
6. Hey, Good Lookin'
One of his finest songs.
5. Cold, Cold Heart
Legend has it that the song was written after his first wife had to go to the hospital after an at-home abortion. Williams allegedly visited her in the hospital, only to have her refuse his kiss when he leaned over to her.
4. Your Cheatin' Heart
The first song to emerge as a hit after his death, Hank wrote this song about his divorce from his first wife.
3. Kaw-liga
I know that some of you think this is his No. 1 song, but I can't quite rank it that high.
2. Long Gone Lonesome Blues
One of my favorite baseball movies is Long Gone and the sight of William Peterson singing it has stayed etched in my brain forever. It's very much a personal favorite.
1. I'm So Lonesome I Could Cry
No song better showcases the pain and torture that lived in so much of his music. Elvis Pressley once called it the saddest song he'd ever heard.
Edit: disregard. Saw you were talking 2022
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Oh wow, what did aggy do to botch this recruitment? Hopefully we can get this kid on campus and turn this one around.
Some of Hank Williams Sr’s greatest material which got very little commercial acclaim is from his alter ego Luke the Drifter such “A Picture from Life’s Other Side”, “Everything’s Ok”, “Be Careful of Stones that You Throw”, and “Men with Broken Hearts”.
Also “Lost Highway” was written by Leon Payne after he graduated from the Texas School for the Blind.
Finally, Hank’s last public gig before his death was at the old Skyline Club in North Austin that was on far North Lamar in December of 1952. Eight years later the Skyline Club was also the last gig for Johnny Horton who died in a car accident after the show. In a unique irony both Hank and Johnny were married to the same woman at the time of their death as Horton had married Hank’s widow.
Also “Lost Highway” was written by Leon Payne after he graduated from the Texas School for the Blind.
Finally, Hank’s last public gig before his death was at the old Skyline Club in North Austin that was on far North Lamar in December of 1952. Eight years later the Skyline Club was also the last gig for Johnny Horton who died in a car accident after the show. In a unique irony both Hank and Johnny were married to the same woman at the time of their death as Horton had married Hank’s widow.
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I mention him all the time. He has a lot of work to do. He wasn't ready to be a major contributor as a freshman and it remains to be seen if he'll be ready in 2024.
CDC needed to establish from the very beginning that under no circumstances would a hire at the position be made without a full hiring process.
He needed to announce that the prerequisites for the job would be very definable successes that they University of Texas would demand of any head job for any hire in any sport.
That didn't remotely come close to happening and the situation got away from CDC because he didn't do it.
This is not revisionist history. This is what I was saying in December/January.
He allowed the national media mouth breathers to control the narrative. and here we are. I suspect this time next year it will be almost over.
Awesome stuff KetchLet the wild speculating begin!
A year ago this weekend, I decided to let everything hang out in making 10 Futurecasts of the top prospects in the Lone Star State from the Class of 2024.
Now it's time to do it with the Class of 2025. Yet, before we start making future forecasts, let's look at the 10 I made last February.
1. Lake Belton Wide receiver Micah Hudson to Texas (Oops)
2. Duncanville edge rusher Colin Simmons to LSU (Oops... but yeah!)
3. Brownsboro wide receiver Gekyle Baker to Texas (Oops)
4. Waco Connally CB Kobe Black to Texas (Hit)
5. Duncanville running back Caden Durham to Oklahoma (Oops)
6. Melissa defensive end Nigel Smith to Oklahoma (Hit)
7. Copperas Cove offensive lineman Michael Uini to Texas (Oops)
8. IMG Academy running back Jerrick Gibson to Texas (Hit)
9. Roswell, Ga. Offensive lineman Daniel Calhoun to Georgia (Hit)
10. 2025 North Shore cornerback Devin Sanchez to Texas (Oops)
The first thing I would tell everyone about looking at last year's early predictions is that if you find yourself in panic mode right now over the 2025 recruiting year ... r-e-l-a-x. If there's anything that I could produce that would show you just how much things can still change between the start of March through the summer/fall/National Signing Day, it's last year's projections.
Folks, things change. Significantly.
One moment you think Hudson is going to Texas, the next moment there's commotion over a spring visit gone bad and things were never the same. One moment, Simmons looked like an LSU strong lean and the next moment he's committing to Texas in the summer and never looking back. Hell, one moment Texas is recruiting kids like Baker and Uini and the next they aren't.
Knowing that I'm probably going to be wrong on half of these, let's get to it.
1. Lewisville offensive tackle Michael Fasusi to Texas
I've been expecting this recruitment to turn into a Texas/OU battle and while I might favor the Sooners in February by a very slight percentage, I'm giving the Longhorns the benefit of the doubt on this one that they'll make up all the ground they need and then some before we get to the end of the summer.
2. Galveston Ball safety/linebacker Jonah Williams to Oklahoma
The Aggies have seemingly botched the hell out of this recruitment. There's a part of me that believes that the Aggies might get back into this one in a big way or even the Longhorns, but it's hard not to lean into OU's February momentum.
3. Mater Dei running back Jordan Davison to Texas
Sark is going to own Mater Dei before he's done with it.
4. Katy Jordan wide receiver Andrew Marsh to Texas A&M
It feels like it's going to come down to down to the Longhorns and Aggies, but the fact that he's got family connections to A&M and he's from Katy ... a notorious A&M territory ... has me going with the Aggies right now. Plus, he chose to visit College Station on January 20 instead of Austin when Texas held its only Junior Day of the month.
5. Bellville defensive tackle D.J. Sanders to Texas A&M
Rivals analyst Adam Gorney said this last week about Sanders: "Everything is pointing to Texas A&M in Sanders’ recruitment. Texas is also a contender but the overwhelming feeling is that the Aggies have all but locked up the four-star defensive lineman from Bellville, Texas, just an hour down the road from College Station."
6. Jasper tight end Kiotti Armstrong to Texas
The visit to Austin on January 20 was just the beginning. I've got my money on Jeff Banks finally landing a war daddy at the position, especially after Armstrong's teammate Tyanthony Smith signed in December.
7. Port Arthur defensive end Michael Riles to Texas
This one feels like UT's to lose at the moment.
8. McKinney linebacker Riley Pettijohn to Texas
McKinney is about to be Longhorn territory after it seemingly belonged to Oklahoma for two decades.
9. Cy Fair defensive lineman Landon Rink to Texas
There's no way this Longhorn legacy goes to OU or A&M, right? Right?
10. Summer Creek defensive end Chad Woodfork to Texas
If the No. 2 team in his recruitment is Tech, this should favor the Longhorns unless his dad played for the Red Raiders.
No. 2 - Let's talk about the defensive line ...
While there's a lot of justifiable discussion about the need for the returning members of the Texas defensive line to raise their levels of play, the Texas coaches will be able to set their watches to the expected contributions from the likes of Alfred Collins, Ethan Burke, Barryn Sorrell and newcomer Tia Sevea.
From my perspective, it's what sits behind those players that possesses the biggest set of questions. Five different third-year players from the Class of 2022 will enter the spring looking to state a strong case for inclusion into this year's plans for that group or perhaps they'll fall into the group of players we're half expecting to enter the transfer portal in the coming 10 months.
As players heading into their third seasons, the entire group should still be treated with a certain amount of patience, primarily because a handful of them appeared to be three-year projects from the moment they signed with the Longhorns. Yet, year three has arrived and it's time to start making some waves, even if we’re just talking about baby waves.
Let's take a look at the group.
Redshirt sophomore Jaray Bledsoe (6-4, 274 pounds)
2023 Performance Levels: Played in 9 games and finished with 2 tackles, 1 tackle for loss and one fumble recovery
2023 Orangebloods Defensive Productivity Rankings: Sub-Replacement Level (No. 26 on the team)
(Via PFF)
What needs to happen this spring: The first question that is going to be asked of every interior lineman in the program is whether he can play nose tackle, and that includes Bledsoe, who didn't play a single snap at the position in a season that ended seven weeks ago. Bledsoe's best position is at the three-technique, but he'll have to climb over two players in Alfred Collins and Vernon Broughton that played 3-4X as many snaps as Bledsoe at that position last year. So, can Bledsoe play some nose tackle? There's room for someone to make a move into the two-deep this spring. If not, Bledsoe needs to circle Broughton's name and make a move for his spot on the two-deep.
Redshirt sophomore Aaron Bryant (6-2, 301 pounds)
2023 Performance Levels: Played in 7 games, recording one assisted tackle.
2023 Orangebloods Defensive Productivity Rankings: No production (No. 37 on the team)
(Via PFF)
What needs to happen this spring: Bryant's snap log doesn't look much different than Bledsoe's, except Bryant actually played 5 total snaps at nose tackle. If you're Bryant, your goal has to be putting a stake down at nose tackle and earning a spot on the two-deep. How likely is that? Well, the good news is that the pathway is wide open. The bad news is that there's no sign that he's good enough to earn that role. Bryant's goal has to be to prove that he's up for the task.
Junior Justice Finkley (6-2, 250 pounds)
2023 Performance Levels: Played in all 14 games and finished with 15 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 2 sacks and a forced fumble.
2023 Orangebloods Defensive Productivity Rankings: Sub-Replacement Level (No. 17 on the team)
(Via PFF)
What needs to happen this spring: There's not really a path for a starting spot for Finkley as long as Sorrell is still on campus, but playing time could become even harder to come by if Burke starts taking snaps at DE, while Trey Moore and Colin Simmons take snaps at Edge. Finkley has to do two things: a) start playing at a higher level and b) make sure that he doesn't get boxed out of significant playing time by the duo of Sorrell/Burke. If he can continue to make strides, he could once again be the top reserve behind Sorrell.
Redshirt sophomore J'Mond Tapp (6-3, 266 pounds)
2023 Performance Levels: Played in 7 games and recorded 8 tackles and 1.5 tackles for loss.
2023 Orangebloods Defensive Productivity Rankings: Sub-Replacement Level (No. 24 on the team)
(Via PFF)
What needs to happen this spring: Tapp needs to find the light switch in a big way because it's tough to know where he's going to make an impact if Moore and Simmons make the big push at Edge that is expected. Tapp has received reps at both end spots, but there's a logjam of bodies in front of him unless he's able to make a big jump in performance levels.
Redshirt sophomore Zac Swanson (6-4, 270 pounds)
2023 Performance Levels: Played in only one game.
2023 Orangebloods Defensive Productivity Rankings: No Production (No. 37 on the team)
(Via PFF)
What needs to happen this spring: Everything. He's last on the totem pole at the moment.
No. 3 - Historical Breakdown: In-State Defensive Tackles ...
Given the deep dive we're taking on the defensive line in this column, I thought I would show everyone a look at the defensive tackle position from a historical standpoint using the Rivals rakings.
Let's look at the five-stars.
2002 - Rod Wright (Texas)
2004 - Frank Okam (Texas)
2005 - Demarcus Granger (Oklahoma)
2012 - Mario Edwards (Florida State)
2012 - Malcom Brown (Texas)
2013 - A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama)
2016 - Ed Oliver (Houston)
2017 - Marvin Wilson (Florida State)
Current 5-Stars in college football: 2023 David Hicks Jr. (Texas A&M)
Breakdown
* 75% were drafted by NFL teams and 87.5% played in the NFL
* The only player that didn't play in the NFL (Granger) was on his way to having that type of career before injuries and off-field issues seemed to cause it to stall out.
* Three of the last 5 five-star defensive tackles since 2005 have been selected in the first round of the NFL Draft and another (Edwards) was selected in the second round.
High four stars:
2005 - Roy Miller (Texas)
2007 - Andre Jones (Texas)
2008 - Jarvis Humphrey (Texas)
2009 - Jamarkus McFarland (Oklahoma)
2009 - Calvin Howell (Texas)
2015 - Daylon Mack (Texas A&M)
Current High 4-Stars in college football: None
Breakdown
* 33.0% were drafted by NFL teams and played in the NFL.
Mid Four Stars
2008 - Chancey Aghayere (LSU)
2010 - Ashton Dorsey (Texas)
2010 - Taylor Bible (Texas)
2013 - Justin Manning (Texas A&M)
2013 - Isaiah Golden (Texas A&M)
2013 - Kerrick Huggins (Oklahoma)
2014 - Deshawn Washington (Texas A&M)
2015 - Darrian Daniels (Oklahoma State)
2018 - Keondre Coburn (Texas)
2018 - Calvin Avery (Illinois)
Current Mid 4-Stars in college football: 2020 Vernon Broughton (Texas) and 2022 Jaray Bledsoe (Texas)
Breakdown
* 10.0% were drafted by NFL teams and played in the NFL.
* Active college players: 2020's Vernon Broughton (Texas) and 2022's Jaray Bledsoe (Texas), 2019's Joshua Ellison (Texas A&M/Memphis), 2021's Marcus Burris (Texas A&M), Jadon Scarlett (Texas A&M) and 2023's Markis Deal (TCU)
Low 4 Stars
2004 - Walter Thomas (Oklahoma State)
2005 - Vince Oghobaase (Duke)
2005 - Vincent Williams (Texas A&M)
2006 - Brandon Antwine (Florida)
2008 - Rod Davis (Texas A&M)
2008 - Kheeston Randall (Texas)
2010 - Eric Humphrey (Oklahoma)
2011 - Marquis Anderson (Oklahoma)
2011 - Jordan Wade - (Oklahoma)
2011 - Desmond Jackson (Texas)
2011 - Quincy Russell (Texas)
2012 - Paul Boyette (Texas)
2013 - Andrew Billings (Baylor)
2013 - Hardreck Walker (Texas A&M)
2014 - Zaycoven Henderson (Texas A&M)
2016 - Chris Daniels (Texas)
2016 - Kendall Jones (Alabama)
2019 - Joshua Ellison (Oklahoma/Memphis) - (Draft eligible)
* Active college players: 2021 Marcus Burris (Texas A&M), 2022 Jadon Scarlett (Texas A&M), 2023 Markis Deal (TCU) and 2024 Dealyn Evans (Texas A&M)
Breakdown
* 11.8% were drafted by NFL teams and played in the NFL.
High 3 Stars
2004 - James McClinton (Kansas)
2006 - Ra'Jon Henry (Texas Tech)
2007 - Chris Perry (Miami)
2008 - Damion Square (Alabama)
2009 - Joey Searcy (Minnesota)
2009 - Thaddeus Randle (Nebraska)
2009 - Siosaia Tuipulotu (Utah)
2010 - Rodney Williams (Houston)
2019 - Torrea Peterson (Oklahoma)
2010 - Cory Coleman (Texas Tech)
2010 - Damon Williams (Oklahoma)
2010 - David Johnson (TCU)
2010 - Diamonte Wheeler (Oklahoma State)
2010 - Donavan Johnson (Iowa)
2010 - Daniel Nobel (Oklahoma)
2011 - Isaiah Norton (Colorado State)
2011 - James Castleman (Oklahoma State)
2012 - Alex Norman (Texas)
2012 - Donald Hopkins (Houston)
2013 - Charles Walker (Oklahoma)
2013 - Vincent Taylor (Oklahoma State)
2014 - Trey Lealaimatafau (LSU)
2015 - Bryce English (Kansas State)
2015 - Joseph Broadnax (TCU)
2015 - Kingsley Keke (Texas A&M)
2015 - Du'Vonta Lampkin (Texas)
2016 - Jordan Elliott (Texas)
2016 - Marcel Southall (Texas)
2016 - Michael Williams (Stanford)
2016 - Ross Blacklock (TCU)
2016 - Brayvion Roy (Baylor)
2017 - Damion Daniels (Nebraska)
2017 - Corey Bethley (TCU)
2017 - Joshua Rogers (Texas A&M)
2017 - Zaccaeus McKinney (Oklahoma)
2018 - Moro Ojomo (Texas)
2018 - Dominic Livingston (LSU)
2019 - Taurean Cartr (Arkansas)
2019 - Enoch Jackson (Arkansas)
2021 - Byron Murphy (Texas) - Draft eligible
Active college players: 2022 Cedric Roberts (Oklahoma), 2022 Kris Ross (Texas), 2022 Connor Lingren (YCU), 2023 Samu Taumanupepe (Texas A&M), 2023 Ansel Nedore (Texas Tech), 2023 Jayden Cofield (Texas Tech), 2023 Riley Van Poppel (Nebraska), 2023 DK Kalu (Baylor) and 2024 Alex January (Texas)
Breakdown
* Drafted by NFL teams: Vincent Taylor (6th round), Kingsley Keke (5th round), Jordan Elliott (3rd round), Ross Blacklock (2nd round), Brayvion Roy (6th round) and Moro Ojomo (7th round)
* 15.4% (6 of 39) of all high three-star prospects were drafted by NFL teams and 18.0% played on NFL teams.
* Played in the NFL: Square, Taylor, Keke, Elliott, Blacklock, Roy and Ojomo
No. 4 - ICYMI ...
Three of my favorite videos on Orangebloods Live this week.
The Latest on 5 Star Edge Colin Simmons
LIKE THE VIDEO & SUBSCRIBE TO THE CHANNELThe leading source of all things Texas Longhorns. Orangebloods.com is home to the most active, largest online commun...Will Texas Land the #1 RB in the Country, Jordon Davison?
LIKE THE VIDEO & SUBSCRIBE TO THE CHANNELThe leading source of all things Texas Longhorns. Orangebloods.com is home to the most active, largest online commun...What's Next For Johntay Cook?
LIKE THE VIDEO & SUBSCRIBE TO THE CHANNELThe leading source of all things Texas Longhorns. Orangebloods.com is home to the most active, largest online commun...
No. 5 - All hail, Vic Schaefer ...
Technically, there's still a lot of work to do for the Texas women's basketball team.
Part one of that work is to take out an Oklahoma team on Wednesday that beat Texas in the Moody Center last month. That will put the Longhorns in a position to take at least a share of the Big 12 regular-season title.
Part two will be harnessing the play from the last six weeks and the potential No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament that could come with it into a deep Tournament run.
That this team is in this position after losing all-everything point guard Rori Harmon is one of the most incredible season-saving pieces of coaches I've seen on the 40 Acres. This team has very little outside shooting and a bench that doesn't always go one-deep on some nights.
Yet, the Longhorns have serious guts and play out of their minds on defense. They are tough as nails.
They embody their coach
If we're doing a list of the best coaches on the 40 Acres, I'm not sure where Schaefer resides, but the roll call won't take long before we get to his name.
No. 6 - About Rodney Terry ...
Let me just state for the record a few things with regards to Texas head basketball coach Rodney Terry.
a. He was never the best candidate for the head coaching job, but Chris Del Conte and other decision makers let themselves get boxed into a bad spot last spring.
b. This season hasn't exactly been a ball of joy and losing 6 games this season by 10+ points isn't inspiring.
c. The smart money has the team barely making the Tournament and not lasting through the first weekend of the Tournament.
Those things being said, let me reiterate once again that the entire tone of this season will change if the Longhorns make it into the Tournament and win a mere two games over three games. As unlikely as it seems at this very moment, the Longhorns have a pair of players in Dylan Disu and Max Abmas that can carry a team through a pair of early Tournament games.
Before everyone gives up on the season, you might as well hang in for a few more weeks to see if Terry can lead this team to the Sweet 16 for only the second time in half a generation.
If that doesn't happen, I'll be out of things to reiterate and you guys can set stuff on fire, I suppose.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) I think they still make the Tournament.
(Buy) Five-star tackles get on the field in year two. Period. If not earlier.
(Sell) Too many tricky minefields for that.
(Sell) He'll get a second year.
(Sell) I'm not sure I'm expecting that to change much.
(Sell) If you believe in Sark's culture, then the answer is no.
(Sell) That feels like an unlikely statistical anomaly that I'm not sure I would count on.
(Sell) South Carolina is undefeated. They'd be No. 1, no matter UT's record.
(Buy) There's nothing like seeing people ignore his apparent lies and poor judgment because ... sports. We need more of that.
(Buy) Yes, damnit. Not two ... just one.
(Buy) Considering how long the program hadn't even made the Sweet 16, a bird in hand is worth two in the bush, even if it means the following couple of seasons end short of something memorable. Plus, there wasn't really a sure-fire go-to-hire.
(Sell) I'm taking Blue as the future 1,139-yard runner.
(Sell) I'll take the under by one.
No. 8 – Scattershooting …
... Steve McMichael is out of the hospital and back at his home. The man doesn't know how to stop fighting.
... Rest in peace, Golden Richards.
... Consider me stunned that Eric Bienemy is close to coaching at UCLA this season.
... I dig court rushes in NCAA basketball, but it's surprising we haven't seen more bad stuff happen over the years when they occur (and I don't mean player injuries).
... I'd love to see the Longhorns get a shot at Caitlan Clark in the NCAA Tournament. She's worth the price of admission and I'm here for the fun.
... Kevin Durant is now the NBA's 9th all-time leading scorer. It blows my mind that he'll be 36 in September. Where did all of the time go?
... It's only one weekend, but Dallas FC looks like the best of the three MLS squads in the state of Texas and Austin FC kind of looked like trash.
... I'm pretty sure I watched 10+ hours of MLS opening weekend.
... Get ready for Oppenheimer domination at the Oscars in 2 weeks. It had yet another dynamite awards outing at the SAG Awards. It feels inevitable.
... Saw Nyad on Netflix this week and thought I was going to dislike it and I actually enjoyed the hell out of it. Not so much for The Color Purple. Some of the musical numbers just couldn't end soon enough. It took nights to finish it.
No. 9 – I love this man …
I've never loved any coach of any team that I've ever supported more than I love Jurgen Klopp. I've got less than 100 days before he's no longer in my life as the Liverpool coach.
Honestly, I'm, not prepared for it. Here's hoping there are a few more moments like Sunday's League Cup Final before he says goodbye.
Please don't go, Jurgen!
No. 10 - Top 10: Hank ...
Every once in a while I'll get into a Hank Williams Sr. mood. I'll hear one of the classics, it'll make me start thinking of my Little Granny and the next thing you know, I've got my Hank Sr, Spotify playlist on both random/repeat.
This weekend turned out to be one of those every once in a whiles.
Apologies to the youngsters out there, but this week's list is for those that grew up in and around honky-tonks like Mary's Place in Waco back in the day.
Here's the list...
Honorable Mention: Move It On Over, Lonesome Whistle, I'll Never Get Out of This World Alive, Moanin' the Blues, Ramblin' Man, Lost Highway, I Can’t Help It (If I’m Still In Love With You) and Honky Tonk Blues
10. There's a Tear in My Beer
When I was 13 and playing baseball on the Giants in Town and Country baseball, my coach (Ruben Banda Sr.) used to sing this song all the time in batting practice. It's stayed with me ever since.
9. Lovesick Blues
One of the songs that made him a superstar.
8. I Saw The Light
It's regarded as possibly the greatest country song ever written about faith. When I was a freshman in high school in 1990, I had a teammate named Abdul that would often break out in this song on the football field and in the hallways of McCallum.
7. Jambalaya (On The Bayou)
No. 1 on the charts for more than three months, everyone from Elvis to Garth Brooks to Fats Domino to Brenda Lee has covered this song.
6. Hey, Good Lookin'
One of his finest songs.
5. Cold, Cold Heart
Legend has it that the song was written after his first wife had to go to the hospital after an at-home abortion. Williams allegedly visited her in the hospital, only to have her refuse his kiss when he leaned over to her.
4. Your Cheatin' Heart
The first song to emerge as a hit after his death, Hank wrote this song about his divorce from his first wife.
3. Kaw-liga
I know that some of you think this is his No. 1 song, but I can't quite rank it that high.
2. Long Gone Lonesome Blues
One of my favorite baseball movies is Long Gone and the sight of William Peterson singing it has stayed etched in my brain forever. It's very much a personal favorite.
1. I'm So Lonesome I Could Cry
No song better showcases the pain and torture that lived in so much of his music. Elvis Pressley once called it the saddest song he'd ever heard.
You have to be able to see problems coming 10 steps before they arrive. He didn't this time, which is surprising because he's usually a good strategist.
I also entered in a futurecast for Michael Terry to Texas.
Isn't this the kid who wanted to to commit to us about a month ago and the staff said not yet? Well at least that was the rumor.
My only complaint with the list is that you got a Tear in my Beer which I think is one of his lesser songs and you have Kaw Liga too high.
I would have put a Honky Tonk Blues in that list.
Lovesick Blues should be at minimum top six/seven and Kaw-Liga should be down toward the bottom and you absolutely should put I saw the Light in the top five.
Ketchum...... Hank didn't just belong to the honky tonks.
When I was growing up on Army bases down South back in the day if you went into any NCO bar I promise you you had at least a half dozen Hank Williams songs on those jukeboxes.
One of the most enduring memories I have Geoff was one night when one of our shipmates in our compartment started playing I'm so lonesome I could cry on harmonica..... And we started singing along.....That last two lines of the last verse Ketch hits home. Sitting on the ship 14,000 miles from home and you're singing that song.
I'm sure you can picture that.
" And as I wonder where you are:
I'm so lonesome I could cry"
