Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (Continuing my crusade!!!!!)
- Thread starter Ketchum
- Start date
I well understand the logic of your statistical arguments, as depressing long winded as each one are - since I 'got it' the first time, but what I cannot understand is why Longhorns coaching staffs (current included of course) don't go along with following what you present as what seems to be a very sound argument. Not being sarcastic. Have you ever questioned Sark or any of our other H.C.s on this exact subject - especially if you've given them your in-depth, very well researched data? I would very much enjoy hearing how they answer you. Thank you and thank you for the time, energy and thought you've put into this over the years.
I do not hate three-star prospects.
Before I go any further, I feel like I should stress this.
No three-star high school football prospect ever took away any of my ex-girlfriends that I'm aware of. Or took my lunch money. Or bullied me on a basketball court.
None of this is personal.
I just don't think a program with significant aspirations as a major college football program should be making significant investments in them in the age of the college football portal.
Of course, it's not an opinion that most college football coaches would likely agree with and that includes the entire Texas Longhorns coaching staff. Yet, I'm not going to back down from this particular hot take, which feels like less of a hot take and more like common sense from my perspective. In the coming paragraphs, I'm going to try and pull you to my way of thinking.
Before I hit you over the head with math, I'm going to begin with a little common sense. Two of the biggest issues facing the three-star prospect at a program like Texas are time and patience. Neither the prospect nor the program typically have enough of either.
More times than not, the average college football prospect needs two or three years to develop before he begins to scratch the surface of becoming a plus-player at a major program (if it ever happens). If you happen to find a player that is comfortable with a three-year window of development, that player has to hope that he doesn't get recruited over in the process.
Take the three different three-star offensive linemen in the Class of 2020 for the Longhorns - Andrej Karic, Jaylen Garth and Logan Parr. None of the three have been in the program for three seasons yet, but when those players reach their third seasons of the program, they'll be staring at the likes of Kelvin Banks, Devon Campbell, Neto Umeozulu and the rest of the 2022 offensive line class that will likely moved above them in the pecking order as younger players.
The reality at a program like Texas is that a player usually starts to contribute in his first or second season in the program or he gets recruited over or bypassed by someone from the portal. Almost by definition, most three-star prospects aren't ready to contribute at high levels in their first couple of seasons.
See the rub?
Let's take a look at some recent history in the Texas program.
Of the 7 three- and two-star (non-kicking) prospects that the Longhorns signed in 2018, the best of the lot is probably Moro Ojomo. The only other contributor is Christian Jones. Everyone else is gone.
Of the 10 three-star players in the 2019 recruiting class, only Roschon Johnson and T'Vondre Sweat remain in the program. Everyone else is gone.
Of the 9 three-star players from the 2020 class, only Jaylan Ford and Jahdae Barron are sure contributors on the 2022 team.
It's not that three stars never hit. It's that you have to sort through a lot of misses to get to them. During that three-year window, a major college program can't have aspirations for the very top and only come away with five pretty good players out of a 26-player pile of players. That's a 20-percent return on the program's investment and it includes two back-up defensive tackles, a back-up running back, a starting cornerback and a starting inside linebacker that the staff has been trying all-off-season to upgrade on.
Johnson and Barron look like players that will play in the NFL from my vantage point, but getting a 7.7% return on high-level players just isn't good enough. Typically, hitting on the average three-star prospect is a 1 in 10 proposition.
It's like going to the county fair and shooting hoops on a 12-foot goal with a crooked rim, only to win a $20 stuffed panda after you've spent $40.
That's not winning as much as it's not walking away with a total disaster.
No. 2 - Let's look under the burnt orange hood ...
As we work our way through this conversation, let's take a look at the long-term success of the Longhorns with regards to taking three-star prospects by looking at every three-star that Texas has ever signed by position.
Quarterbacks
2005 Colt McCoy, 2006 Sherrod Harris, 2007 G.J. Kinne, 2019 Case McCoy, 2011 David Ash, 2019 Roschon Johnson and 2021 Charles Wright
Notes: What an eclectic little group of players. Technically, only one of the players that has completed his eligibility hit for the Longhorns, but that hit has his number retired. Meanwhile, the second McCoy on this list had some big wins as a starter and it's impossible to know what might have happened with Ash had concussions not ended his career.
NFL Draft rate: 20%
Two things I'd say about this group ...
a. By the time we get to the end of this discussion, I'm going to make a mini-exemption for quarterbacks.
b. I personally rated McCoy and Ash as four stars. Just wanted to say that for the record.
Running backs
2002 Clint Haney, 2005 Jerrell Wilkerson, 2005 Michael Houston, 2006 Antwan Cobb, 2008 Brock Fitzhenry, 2008 Tre Newton, 2008 Ryan Roberson, 2011 Joe Bergeron, 2014 Kevin Shorter, 2016 Tristian Houston and 2017 Daniel Young.
Notes: Technically, D'Onta Foreman was ranked as an athlete, which means that either Newton or Bergeron are the best players out of this group. That tells a story.
NFL Draft rate: 0%
Wide Receivers
2002 Dustin Miksch, 2004 Chris Ogbonnaya, 2004 Nate Jones, 2006 John Marshall, 2011 Miles Onyegbule, 2012 Marcus Johnson, 2013 Montrel Meander, 2014 Dorian Leonard, 2014 Garrett Gray, 2014 Roderick Bernard, 2015 Gilbert Johnson, 2015 Ryan Newsome, 2015 Davion Curtis, 2016 Reggie Hemphill-Mapps, 2017 Jordan Pouncey, 2019 Kennedy Lewis, 2020 Dajon Harrison, 2021 Casey Cain, 2021 Keithron Lee and 2022 Savion Redd
Notes: Going all the way back to Marcus Johnson in 2012, the Longhorns are 0 for their last 12 (not counting Cain or Redd). The three best players from this group are Johnson (who, I ironically ranked as a four-star), Jones and Ogbonnaya - none of whom where all-conference level players as starters, even if all three played on Sundays (one at running back).
NFL Draft rate: 0%
Tight ends
2003 Steve Hogan, 2004 Peter Ullman, 2006 Britt Mitchell, 2006 Greg Smith, 2007 Ahmard Howard, 2007 Ian Harris, 2009 Trey Graham, 2009 Barrett Matthews, 2013 Geoff Swaim, 2014 Blake Whiteley, 2016 Peyton Aucoin, 2017 Cade Brewer, 2019 Jared Wiley and 2021 Juan Davis.
Notes: Out of the 13 players that have completed their eligibility, only Swaim (7th round by the Dallas Cowboys) ever played on Sundays and you could make a strong case that Brewer is the second-best contributor from this group.
NFL Draft rate: 7.7%
Offensive Linemen
2002 Brett Valdez, 2003 Kyle Thornton, 2003 Dallas Griffin, 2004 Adam Ulatoski, 2005 Charlie Tanner, 2005 Chris Hall, 2006 Roy Watts, 2006 Steve Moore, 2008 Luke Poehlmann, 2009 Paden Kelley, 2011 Taylor Doyle, 2011 Marcus Hutchins, 2013 Desmond Harrison, 2014 Elijah Rodriguez, 2014 Terrell Cuney, 2014 Alex Anderson, 2015 Garrett Thomas, 2015 Ronnie Major, 2015 Tristan Nickelson, 2016 Brandon Hodges, 2016 Tope Imade, 2016 Zach Shackelford, 2017 Sam Cosmi, 2017 Derek Kerstetter, 2018 Reese Moore, 2018 Rafiti Ghirmai, 2019 Willie Tyler, 2020 Andrej Karic, 2020 Jaylen Garth, 2020 Logan Parr, 2021 Hayden Conner, 2022 Lance St. Louis and 2022 Connor Robertson
Notes: Out of the 27 players that have completed their eligibility, only Cosmi was drafted. Harrison joins him as a guy that played on Sundays, but he literally never started a game for the Longhorns, no matter how much @Alex Dunlap tried to will it to happen. Other than that, most of the contributors on the list were never really more than pretty good at best, with the likely exception of Ulatoski. This is going to sound harsh, but I'd make the case that one of the problems Texas football has had in the last 15 years is that too many of those players ended up playing a lot of snaps for the program.
NFL Draft rate: 3.7%
No. 3 - Can I just take a brief moment to say ...
OF THE 81 OFFENSIVE PROSPECTS THAT TEXAS HAS TAKEN SINCE 2002, ONLY FIVE WERE DRAFTED BY NFL TEAMS!!!!!!!!
No. 4 - Continuing with the Defense ...
Defensive Tackles
2003 Thomas Marshall, 2004 Derek Lokey, 2006 Ben Alexander, 2007 Tyrell Higgins, 2007 Michael Wilcoxon, 2010 Deaires Cotton, 2012 Brandon Moore, 2012 Alex Norman, 2014 Chris Nelson, 2014 Poona Ford, 2015 Du'Vonta Lampkin, 2016 Jordan Elliott, 2016 Gerald Wilbon, 2016 Marcel Southall, 2018 Christian Jones, 2018 Moro Ojomo, 2021 Byron Murphy, 2022 Aaron Bryant and 2022 Kris Ross
Notes: This is actually a group that performs very well, as Lokey, Ford and Elliott all played on Sundays. Of course, Ford was legitimately a great player for the Longhorns. Ironically, the only player (Elliott) from the group of the 14 that have completed their eligibility and was actually drafted only played in six games for the Longhorns before transferring. Getting at least 20+ of a contributor rate isn't a terrible number, especially when Ojomo and Murphy will end up boosting the numbers above 30%.
NFL Draft rate: 7.1%
Defensive Ends
2006 Brian Ellis, 2007 Sam Acho, 2009 Dominique Jones, 2009 Kyle Kriegel, 2012 Caleb Bluiett, 2012 Byrce Cotrell, 2014 Jake McMillon, 2015 Quincy Vasser, 2016 Malcolm Roach, 2016 Andrew Fitzgerald, 2017 Max Cummins, 2017 Jamari Chisholm, 2017 Taquan Graham, 2018 Daniel Carson, 2018 Mike Williams, 2019 T'Vondre Sweat, 2019 Peter Mpagi, 2019 Sawyer Gorham-Welch, 2021 David Abiara, 2021 Barryn Sorrell and 2021 Jordan Thomas,
Notes: Acho is obviously a big hit. Beyond him, Roach and Graham were hits of lesser extent, but still proved to be NFL-level talents. The problem is that almost all of the other players that have finished their eligibility turned out to be complete dudes. Yet, if Sweat has a big year in 2022 and Sorrell pans out as people inside the program hope, we could be talking about a position group with a near 25-percent success rate as quality performers.
NFL Draft rate: 12.5%
Linebackers
2002 Brian Robison, 2002 Marcus Myers, 2003 Scott Derry, 2004 Jeremy Campbell, 2004 Rashad Bobino, 2004 Nic Redwine, 2005 Roderrick Muckelroy, 2008 Dustin Earnest, 2008 Emmanuel Acho, 2009 Patrick Nkwopara, 2012 Dalton Santos, 2012 Alex De La Torre, 2013 Naashon Hughes, 2014 Cameron Hampton, 2014 Andrew Beck, 2015 Cameron Townsend, 2015 Breckyn Hager, 2018 Byron Hobbs, 2019 Caleb Johnson, 2019 Marcus Tillman, 2019 Juwan Mitchell, 2020 Jaylan Ford, 2021 Morice Blackwell, 2021 Terrence Cooks, 2022 Derrick Brown and 2022 Trevell Johnson
Notes: Robison, Muckelroy and Acho were all definite hits, but I'd argue that the program has missed on its last 12, with all due respect to Beck and Hager, who proved to be solid players at other positions. It's kind of a tricky group of players to talk about, but this is an undeniable fact - Texas hasn't struck gold (even remotely) at the actual linebacker position for its defense since the pre-Will Muschamp days.
NFL Draft rate: 13.6%
Defensive Backs
2002 Matthew Melton, 2003 Brandon Foster, 2004 Ryan Palmer, 2006 James Henry, 2008 Blake Gideon, 2010 Adrian White, 2011 Leroy Scott, 2012 Kevin Vaccaro, 2013 Erik Huhn, 2014 Jermaine Roberts, 2014 John Bonney, 2014 Jason Hall, 2015 PJ Locke, 2016 Eric Cuffee, 2016 Chris Brown, 2017 Kobe Boyce and 2019 Marquise Caldwell
Notes: There are a few decent college players in that group, including Foster, Palmer, Gideon and Brown, but not a single impact player ever emerged from a group of 17 players. You'd probably say that Gideon was the best of that group and only Brown warrants being in a conversation with him in the last 15 years.
NFL Draft rate: 0.0%
Athletes
2003 Eric Foreman, 2008 Antoine Hicks, 2012 Jalen Overstreet, 2012 Adrian Colbert, 2013 Chevoski Collins, 2014 D'Onta Foreman, 2015 Deandre McNeal, 2016 Lil'Jordan Humphrey, 2016 Donovan Duvernay, 2020 Kelvontay Dixon, 2020 Jaden Hullaby and 2022 Xavian Brice
Notes: It's interesting that two of the biggest hits of the last decade for the Longhorns on the offensive side of the ball, were listed as "athletes" coming out of high school. Colbert ended up being an NFL player, but only emerged into that kind of player after transferring from the program. Still, not too shabby, given the sample size.
NFL Draft rate: 18.2%
No. 5 - A few final thoughts and some rules ...
... If we mix in all of the athletes into the correct side of the ball, it means that five of the last 81 three-star players that the Longhorns have signed on the offensive side of the ball have eventually been drafted by NFL teams. That's 6.2%.
... The number of NFL drafted players from the defensive side of the ball stands at six in 75 over the last two decades. That's 8%.
... Of the 10 three-star players that have been drafted out of the 153 prospects who have completed their eligibility, the following were recruited post-2008 ... Geoff Swaim, Sam Cosmi, Jordan Elliott, Taquan Graham, Adrian Colbert and D'Onte Foreman. That's six players and two of them ended up transferring from Texas. Only two were All-Big 12 players.
... No three-star player ever recruited by Texas in the modern era of the Rivals rankings (2002) has ever been selected as a first-round pick.
You can throw in an occasional Marcus Johnson, Lil'Jordan Humphrey or Poona Ford, but the bottom line on these numbers remains poor.
Moving forward, the best thing the Texas program can do is let other programs develop these 1 in 10s and then poach them in the transfer portal.
The only exceptions that should be made are the following:
a. An occasional quarterback from the state of Texas. We'll call it the Colt McCoy rule.
b. An occasional BIG defensive lineman. No tweeners. They all need to be either a defensive tackle or a defensive end that is at least 6-4, 240 pounds.
c. Raw two-way athletes that can play on either side of the ball.
d. Kickers or Punters.
That's it.
Otherwise, that scholarship needs to be saved for a player coming through the Portal with more pure upside (think Agiye Hall) or proven credentials (think Isaiah Neyor).
No. 6 - Historical trends: In-State Defensive Tackles ...
A week ago in this column, we took a look at defensive ends from the Lone Star State and with the commitment of Sydir Mitchell, I thought it might be a good time to look at the defensive tackles that the state produces.
If some of you want the cliffs on this section without having to sort through the names, here are the key points.
a. 75% of five-star players from Texas from 2002-2017 were drafted by NFL teams and 87.5% played on Sundays.
b. 33.3% of high four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
c. 0.0% of mid four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
d. 11.8% of low four-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
e. 15.2% of high three-star players from Texas from 2004-2017 were drafted by NFL teams.
Here's how it all looks when you go under the hood of each rankings tier:
Let's look at the five-stars.
2002 - Rod Wright (Texas)
2004 - Frank Okam (Texas)
2005 - Demarcus Granger (Oklahoma)
2012 - Mario Edwards (Florida State)
2012 - Malcom Brown (Texas)
2013 - A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama)
2016 - Ed Oliver (Houston)
2017 - Marvin Wilson (Florida State)
Breakdown
* 6 of the 8 players (75.0%) were drafted by NFL teams and 7 of the 8 played on Sundays.
* 3 of the last 5 five-star defensive tackles since 2005 have been selected in the first round of the NFL Draft and another (Edwards) was selected in the second round.
Now let's look at the high four stars:
2005 - Roy Miller (Texas)
2007 - Andre Jones (Texas)
2008 - Jarvis Humphrey (Texas)
2009 - Jamarkus McFarland (Oklahoma)
2009 - Calvin Howell (Texas)
2015 - Daylon Mack (Texas A&M)
Breakdown
* 2 of the 6 players (33.0%) were drafted by NFL teams: Miller (3rd round) and Mack (5th round).
Mid Four Stars
2008 - Chancey Aghayere (LSU)
2010 - Ashton Dorsey (Texas)
2010 - Taylor Bible (Texas)
2013 - Justin Manning (Texas A&M)
2013 - Isaiah Golden (Texas A&M)
2013 - Kerrick Huggins (Oklahoma)
2014 - Deshawn Washington (Texas A&M)
2015 - Darrian Daniels (Oklahoma State)
Breakdown
* 0 of the 8 players (0.0%) were drafted by NFL teams.
Low Four Stars
2004 - Walter Thomas (Oklahoma State)
2005 - Vince Oghobaase (Duke)
2005 - Vincent Williams (Texas A&M)
2005 - Brandon Antwine (Florida)
2008 - Rod Davis (Texas A&M)
2008 - Kheeston Randall (Texas)
2010 - Eric Humphrey (Oklahoma)
2011 - Jordan Wade (Oklahoma)
2011 - Quincy Russell (Texas)
2011 - Desmond Jackson (Texas)
2011 - Marquis Anderson (Oklahoma)
2012 - Paul Boyette (Texas)
2013 - Hardreck Walker (Texas A&M)
2013 - Andrew Billings (Baylor)
2014 - Zaycoven Henderson (Texas A&M)
2016 - Chris Daniels (Texas)
2016 - Kendall Jones (Alabama)
Breakdown
* 2 of the 17 players (11.8%) were drafted by NFL teams.
No. 7 – BUY or SELL …
(Sell) Knowing that there's no real number that serves as a ceiling, I don't think we'll see guys get pushed out of the class, but it might mean that more guys from the program are "processed" in order to fit them all in next August.
(Buy) I hate watching football games that don't matter and far too often on college football weekends, we're limited to one or two games each week mattering. In my mind, cutting the dead weight and streamlining the sport is going to lead to a better product on our televisions each week. There's not a single team that will get left out of the super heavyweight conferences that I really care about.
(Sell) I can't buy that until I see some evidence. I know the smart thing for me to say as the owner of this site is to tell you yes, but I wouldn't be able to look myself in the mirror if I started to just tell you what you wanted to hear. Hell, this entire column this week is full of stuff I'm not sure any of you want to hear or see.
(Sell) Come on...
(Buy) That's an easy one for me because I definitely think Johntay Cook is going to get his fifth star and Connor Stroh will get bumped up to four stars.
(Sell) Eight will likely do.
(Buy) There's no reason to think that Texas' ability to recruit California is going to decrease in the coming years.
(Sell) I don't think the game is going to be that close.
(Sell) I want you to know that you get an A+ for creativity and consideration for the question that you've asked, but generally speaking, alumni wealth isn't a major consideration for most kids making decisions.
(Buy) I think he wins the Heisman if all of that happens.
(Sell) It would likely be really close and it would likely mean that this season is a disaster on the field and that Sarkisian is in real trouble. I'm still selling, but it would be damn close. The pitchforks would definitely come out.
(Buy) This is still a defense that lacks proven playmakers. That hasn't changed.
No. 8 - Scattershooting on the sports weekend ...
... The NBA is freaking never boring. Never.
... I'm not sure where I want Kevin Durant to be traded, but please don't let it be the Boston Celtics. I can live with anything else, but I can't live with that.
... The Lakers trading for Kyrie Irving when the rest of the league won't touch him is pretty much the most Lakers thing ever. I can't believe LeBron James is going to trust the rest of his "prime" years with Irving. What could possibly go wrong?
... Zion is just stealing money at this point. Hundreds of millions.
... P.J. Tucker is a Sixer. That makes me really happy.
... It's almost time for me to be a fantasy football commish. I vow to be a better commish this season. I'm tired of @Anwar Richardson suggesting I hand control over to someone else.
... I'm thinking I'm going to take my kids to an Astros game this month.
... For the Texas hard-ball fans out there. This will make you smile.
... Mo Salah! Mo Salah! Running down the Wing! Consider me very surprised that FSG gave Salah the money he wanted in order to get him to agree to an extension. Consider me a happy boy.
... I may or may not have cackled this weekend when the Cristiano Ronaldo news came out of Manchester on Saturday ...
... I have a hunch Wimbledon is going to be really good this week.
No. 9 - The List: Top 10 Guns N Roses songs ...
Never in a million years would I have believed 25 years ago that Guns N Roses would be touring in 2022, but somehow we've made it.
And Carrie Underwood is performing with them.
It seems like as good of a reason as any to do a Top 10 list. I'm sure there will be zero disagreement.
10. Live and Let Die
9. Mr. Brownstone
8. Rocket Queen
7. Estranged
6. Patience
5. Knockin on Heaven's Door
4. Paradise City
3. Sweet Child O' Mine
2. November Rain
1. Welcome to the Jungle
No. 10 - And Finally ...
Dogs, man. Dogs.
You are on a good mission Ketch. It’s the age of data and only a fool ignores what data can offer. What about the next layer. What can the data tell us about how Baylor and ISU … are able to build winners with 2 and 3 stars. Are there any hidden correlations to size, speed, high school mascot ferocity, etc.
I've asked questions about whether Texas staffs use this type of analysis and it's usually more mocked than inquired about.
Personal = you are a jerk
Professional = I greatly dislike this article and I don’t think you took your audience or your tone into account when you wrote this.
I'm old enough to remember you pretending that there wasn't anything personal about previous comments.
The truth is you were a coward when called out by it the first time. If you're posting with conviction, don't be a bitch about it. Say what you mean and stop pussyfooting around.
Be curious, not judgmental. Sounds like you have a way to go with the former and the latter.
It just sounds like they talked to him while standing on a financial house of cards.
This was a good article. Don't get excited about 3-star commits, and don't expect to win 10+ games a year or a conference championship when you are recruiting too many 3-stars.
Now how many are too many three stars, and how much being able to develop like Patterson did at TCU are open Qs.
None of this data craps on a scrappy 3-star that bled for the Texas program- I'm thankful for them, but you cannot build a consistent winner when you have too many 3-stars on the roster, not enough of them overachieve sufficiently to contribute enough.
Now how many are too many three stars, and how much being able to develop like Patterson did at TCU are open Qs.
None of this data craps on a scrappy 3-star that bled for the Texas program- I'm thankful for them, but you cannot build a consistent winner when you have too many 3-stars on the roster, not enough of them overachieve sufficiently to contribute enough.
You give these folks more benefit of the doubt than they have earned or deserve.
Wait a sec. Didn't Du'Vonta Lampkin graduate with a degree in Spanish?
Just tough to evaluate whether this group should be going after 3*s until we see 1. can they evaluate and 2. can they develop. The last group could not do either and a good chunk of your data is based on those meatballs.
I also think some of these folks could end up with 4*s after or during the fall season, and possible all star performances. Net-net - It is early. 5 of Georgia's 12 current commits are 3*s and they are riding a Natty....(a couple of those kids will move up.
Last, I have a feeling we will not see too many more 3's in this cycle and the a good chunk of our final top 10 are not onboard yet.
I'm pretty sure we are second to Harvard but what does this have to do with NIL?
Yeah because you don’t live in the silo and if you don’t then you obviously don’t know anything. Lowly keyboard jockey. Insert mocking laugh.
So you just called me a coward and a bitch, and you want to talk about personal?
Don't tell me how to behave, and get over yourself.
Wonder why - your stats don’t seem to have any bias or factual errors. I know we get beat every year by players who ‘weren’t Texas good’.
Maybe they see the fault in your argument as they aren’t necessarily recruiting players for future NFL paychecks, but for what they can be in college. I don’t know - I’d like to hear more of their reasoning,
I'm not the one that was the coward and tried to pretend his way out of being called out for it.
So now I have to read an entire thread to get a nugget like this
I’m rubber your glue. Talk about a bitch, thin skinned pussy. Just because someone think your product sucked and boring doesn’t make it personal. Been a loyal subscriber for longer than I can remember. I thought you were better than this.
Well, always a wise business decision to to piss off people who have been a part of making you so successful.
I won’t be making that same mistake any more.
With loyalty like this, who needs enemies.
It's not really my fault I called you out on your cowardice and only AFTER you were called out did you apparently say what you mean.
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