I was putting around the practice green at Muny the other day, and I saw these two old guys in a long conversation. I came away wanting to know more about this character they were discussing, Dusty Krueger.

Apparently he was a natural golf genius. I wonder if he was autistic, because it sounds like he couldn’t do much of anything else. Couldn’t drive a car, made his living as a janitor at UT. But from all accounts he was a beloved figure who could do anything with a golf club, including trick shots.

There’s lots about him collected on this webpage, including audio from Ben Crenshaw. One older guy tells about how Krueger started as a caddie in the 30s at Hancock under Harvey Penick. He tells how UT’s head football coach, Jack Chevigny, the Notre Dame alum who was killed in WWII, would bring over footballs for the caddies to play with.

Since many on this site may be buying or selling a home at any given time, own investment properties, or commercial real estate I'm posting this weekly update to stay current.

The data is well researched from my employer New American Funding's Research/Analytics Department.

Thus, it is fact based and only analyzing the data/trends without regard to government policy.

As I stated previously let's keep the thread informational for those that might be in the market and leave policy discussions in "The Corral".

I'll be posting the highlights here - for you data and chart geeks at the end is a link to the full report.

The Highlights -

1. According to Housing Wire’s mortgage rate indices, 30-year fixed conforming mortgage rates surpassed the 7% threshold on Valentines Day and continue to remain in the 7s.
2. The quits rate, which is a great gauge of labor market tightness is now down to pre-pandemic levels indicating employees aren’t jazzed about their ability to find a new job and hinting that there is weakness in the market. This should put downward pressure on wage inflation which is welcome news.
3. According to Inside Mortgage Finance (IMF) estimates, 2023 saw mortgage originations total $1.380 trillion, representing the lowest output since 2014 when mortgage origination volume totaled $1.300 trillion
4. The sharp drop in volume hit the non-agency market the hardest as it declined to 12.03% of the market from 17.89% the year prior.
5. The biggest winner from a product standpoint was the government market, which saw its market share grow from 18.45% to 25.65%.
6. Refinance mortgage origination volume took a nosedive declining from $727 billion to $195 billion or a decline of -73.2%.
7. Purchase volume declined from $1.598 trillion to $ 1.188 trillion or a decline of -25.7%. The smaller decline shifted the purchase market share to the highest on record as reported by IMF data which goes back to 2004 at 86.1%.

According to HousingWire’s mortgage rate indices, 30-year fixed conforming mortgage rates surpassed the 7% threshold on Valentines Day and continue to remain in the 7s breaking the hearts of many perspective homebuyers that sat on the sidelines last year and looked toward this year to pull the trigger.

As of today, homebuyers are looking at a double whammy of increases of $18,300 in home price (5.1% Y/Y) and an increase of 31 bps in mortgage rate (4.5% Y/Y). Combined these two factors equate to an increase of $198 in monthly P&I payments (8.4% Y/Y) and an increase of $53,232 in lifetime interest paid (10.9% Y/Y), which means that there is an increase of $71,532 in lifetime P&I payments based on the median existing home price of $360,800 last year compared to $379,100 this year. With no certainty of where home prices and rates are headed timing the perfect moment to purchase a home is a fool’s game. If you are successful investor or looking to buy a second home continue to play your game if you wish, but for those looking to purchase their primary residence (majority of the market) it’s best to consider your goals first and not prioritize when over what.

Francois Trahan of Trahan Macro Research points out, “the Quits Rate, which is a great gauge of labor market tightness is now down to pre-pandemic levels ... 2017 levels actually. This is just one gauge of labor market tightness, but it is a good reflection about how employees feel about their ability to find another job. It's also a GREAT leading indicator of wage inflation (i.e., core inflation). Staring at this chart (and listening to Fed Chairman Powell’s comments this morning), I do wonder if the Fed is about to make another policy error. IF they were trying to be preemptive like say Alan Greenspan in the mid-90s, then they should be cutting rates now. In the modern era of policy, the only plateau in the Fed Funds Rate that lasted longer than the current one is the one that preceded the Global Financial Crisis. It's just a stat, but we shall see.”

Speaking of refinance activity, mortgage origination volume took a nosedive declining from $727 billion to $195 billion or a decline of -73.2%. Meanwhile purchase volume declined from $1.598 trillion to $ 1.188 trillion or a decline of -25.7% shifting purchase market share to the highest on record as reported by IMF data which goes back to 2004 at 86.1%.

Full Report Hyperlink -

Click Here for Full Report

Have an Amazing Week & Hook 'Em!

Going to Orlando to get on a cruise. Any cool places to visit near the port? We are getting into town a day early.

Boeing/United has another jet drop a wheel on take-off.

Interesting call to your insurance agent.


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Once Scranton Joe makes his case to the American people from the SOTU bully pulpit tonight, the worm will turn and the polling pendulum will swing towards honor and integrity. Go look at the polls right now Trump supporters. This is your boys high water mark.

Pentagon Review Finds No Evidence of Alien Cover-Up

Should be interesting.

Heading to the Keys for spring break. We will have access to a boat most days and looking for food recommendations for those who have been. We are staying in Marathon so any must try places in any of the keys? We land in Miami but not a chance in hell we stay on south beach and deal with that crowd. Booked a one night stay Sunday night in Hallandale beach before we hit the road the following morning. Looking for a great dinner spot for that one night. Appreciate any information as usual.

It Taurus apart,

Any recommendations for Cardiologist in Corpus Christi? Dealing with AFIB and Irregular heart rate. Many Thanks for any assistance.

New Texas defensive line coach Kenny Baker put several new offers on the table this week. One of those scholarship opportunities went to Derry Norris, a defensive end out of Port Orange (FL) Spruce Creek. For Norris, it was a continuation of an impressive run of offers, and the interest from Texas was definitely an attention-grabber.

“It was great situation to be in for sure. I’m very blessed to receive an offer from Texas,” Norris.

The contact from the UT staff is fairly new, but Norris was told that the Texas coaches had evaluated his game film and they loved what they saw.

“I was actually on a call with coach Baker and coach (Tashard) Choice. It was brought to my attention how much they love my film, that they love different things about me,” Norris said. “They just want to build a relationship.

“They said they definitely like my athleticism, how I move, just the type of person I was after talking to me.”

In the last week alone, Norris has picked up offers from places like Texas, Texas A&M, Ohio State, Missouri, Miami and Virginia. With such recent interest from so many programs, Derry is keeping an open mind but the Texas offer has the Longhorns instantly in the mix.

“It definitely means a lot to me. My recruitment is still open, but Texas definitely gives me a lot to think about,” Derry said.

The 6-3, 254-pound Derry currently has two official visits on the books, to Georgia Tech and Purdue. A visit to Austin in the near future is a strong possibility.

“I’m trying to organize getting there for a spring practice,” Norris said.

Norris’ talent on the football field has garnered attention from college coaches, but he’s also strong in the classroom. Norris wants to study civil engineering, and the academic strengths in that field of the schools he’ll consider will be a big factor.

“What I know about Texas is the history. And also the education part of it,” Norris said. “That’s very important to me and my family. And just the coaching staff.”

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OB Brethren,

Your exclusive OB membership grants you early access before Gen Pop to see and shop our NIL store with UT Licensed apparel. Commissions on all sales go directly to our student athletes and they are paid monthly so find your favorite player and start shopping.

Hook 'Em

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Not sure what to think about this.

OB Fam,

Join us next week! Covert Hutto Presents the Chevy vs. Ford Car Show in collaboration with the Sweet Rides of Central Texas. Join us on March 17th, 2024 from 10:00 AM to 2:00 PM. Come out to see who will win Best in Show! Get a peek at your favorite Ford and Chevy models while also enjoying food, drinks, music and MORE. Can't wait to see you there!

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That's our Covert Commitment.

Came across this article from Matthew Berry from things he came across at the NFL combine. Haven’t seen it posted, but even if it has, worth doing so again. Lots of good insight throughout.

The story includes a really nice tribute and story about Peter King at the start. Really awesome and speaks to just the type of person that Peter is.

In addition, there were some nice UT mentions in there, including one about our own @Alex Dunlap and @CodyCarpentier :

“Enough caveats for you? Good. Last thing I’ll say here is I want to give a shout out to my buddies Alex Dunlap and Cody Carpentier of RosterWatch. Many times during the Combine multiple coaches and general managers speak at the same time, making it impossible to catch everyone. So, in some cases below, when I refer to something said from a podium by a coach or GM I am relying on their always excellent coverage. Check them out when you get a chance and follow them on Twitter/X.”

He also shared this:
“14. I won’t tell you who the general manager is, but a GM for a QB-needy team was walking by our set, where both Pro Football Talk and Fantasy Football Happy Hour were broadcasting from, saw Chris Simms and stopped to say hi. He asked Simms if he had started his QB film evaluation yet. Simms said no, he was going to start diving in and grinding tape this week, as soon as he was back from the Combine. The GM says with a smile, “Great. Let me know when you’re done, so you can tell me who to draft.””
(Insert your Major jokes here)

Here’s the long and short of it.

If you’re out on Terry now, it means you were out on him the moment he was hired and never thought he deserved a chance to prove himself.

If you are in wait and see mode, it means you were in wait and see mode from the beginning and wanted to seen what happened on the court before making a decision.

The constant game to game litigation of his competence is one of the more exhausting experiences I’ve had on OB. Has this team been a smashing success? No. Miserable failure? Not even close. In fact it’s a team that’s clearly getting better (and not just in a vacuum, in relation to other teams)

I suspect if Ron Holland didn’t pull the rug out from under us we’d be a top 3-5 seed and given his G League numbers that doesn’t feel like much of a stretch.

Ordered windows through Lowes in May 2023 and they are still working on the instillation.

I could go on and on about it, but they have one last window to install as of yesterday and they've had to measure the one window FIVE TIMES......yea, I'm not kidding they've have to come to my house five times to measure the same window.

Just wanted to warn everyone never to go in that direction with Lowes. The installer told me yesterday "yea, I just left another person who's been installing their windows since May too".

She Turrible

Oh man if you want to be pissed as a parent watch this. What a bunch of low life's.

Friend's widow in Austin would like to give her husband's very specialized tools for constructing & repairing custom golf clubs to a young trained professional perhaps wanting to advance his career & venture out on his own. Very specialized (& probably expensive) tools to be given to someone who will put them to good use. Would prefer more than just an enthusiast, but want someone who will use them. I really don't know much more than this, but knowing the number of golfers on here, thought someone might be interested or know someone who would be. Check around the course this weekend. Please DM me the contact information & I will give that to Jim (not on OB) who is handling it. He will be able to answer any questions. Response probably won't be until mid week or later.

As I watched the results come in Tuesday night I noticed the in almost every state and in every primary (President or senate or governor) the votes for the Republicans easily outnumbered votes for democrats
Often there were twice as many votes for the Republican primary candidate than the amount for the democrat candidate
Even in purple or blue states such as North Carolina or Minnesota
Is this normal in primaries? Do democrats usually not come out during primaries?