War room:
We open things up this week with a number of topics related to Big 12 expansion. In talking with a number sources connected to the Texas athletics department and others with interests in the subject matter, I have found the guts of this discussion to be absolutely fascinating.
Hopefully, I can answer many of the questions you’ve been asking since this topic exploded a little more than 48 hours ago.
Question No. 1: What is UT’s position on expansion as of today?
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Seriously. In discussing the topic all week with people, the sentiment relates to conference expansion has spun away from a hard line stance against it to almost something very close to indifference.
Once the shock of what has happened this week wore off, there seems to be a collective attitude that Texas will be willing to participate if the terms are right.
“With us going to divisions and having a conference title game, it makes a lot of sense to everyone. Having those two elements does change the conversation some, but that is not what all of this is really about,” one high-level UT source said.
Question No. 2: So, what is all of this about?
The short answer is this … a major cash grab.
It seems like only this week the conference learned via the new ACC Network deal that the money turnip hasn’t been squeezed completely dry when it comes to TV revenue. What everyone seems to be in favor of is leveraging the Big 12’s position as the last major conference looking to make moves in this era of expansion.
Call it extortion or good business or a combination of both, but the members of the league realize that they are dealing with desperate schools willing to sign away their first child for a chance to be in a power conference. The Big 12 announced last month that TV rights revenue for each school had climbed to $30.4 million per school, not including third-tier media rights (Texas earned $15 million with its Longhorn Network deal).
To give you an idea of the money that’s out there to made, members of the AAC, which is the conference that the University of Houston belongs to, netted a mere $3 million in TV revenue a year ago. So, imagine a world in which the Big 12 offers to bump rights revenues to $5 million per year to the schools that want in and the other existing Big 12 members rake in the rest of the revenue.
That’s $25 million per year, per school, which means that if expansion began as early as 2017, the members of the Big 12 have a chance to generate $200 million per school over the course of the current Grant of Rights that are signed through the 2024-25 year.
That’s potentially $400 million if you take two schools in and potentially $800 million if you take four schools. Obviously, the agreement will likely be staggered over the course of an eight-year window in a way that allows each of the new schools to make more money over time, which would lower these projections some, but the Big 12 has ALL of the leverage. ALL of it. Regardless of what the final numbers look like, we are talking about tens of millions for each existing school in the conference.
“If you want to know why we are not strongly against this idea, it’s because of the money,” one source told me via text on Wednesday. “It’s a lot of money to us, so imagine how much money it is for some of the other league members. We’re at least going to listen. We like found money in the parking lot as much as the next guy.”
Question No. 3: So, what things are off the table as far as Texas is concerned?
It’s very easy … changes to the the Longhorn Network and extending the Grant of Rights beyond the 2024-25 year are off the table.
“The key to look for is if we or anyone else agrees to extend their pledge of broadcast rights,” one high-level source told me on Wednesday.
Indeed, as the week has gone on, all sources on the Texas side seem very firm in not budging on the GOR extension, even if some schools in the conference prefer it.
The bottom line at this point in the process is that no one has even dared to tread carefully into that territory. What the Longhorns are dealing with is a situation where the rest of the conference will allow Texas to have its cake and eat it, too … just as long as they can eat some of their own cake that doesn’t interfere with UT’s cake-eating.
Question No. 4: Does Texas have any favorites in expansion?
Not really.
Every source I’ve spoken with this week has conceded that the options are just as ugly today as they were five years ago.
“Not really,” one high-level source replied when I asked if he thought Texas has any favorites.
“All of these schools are dogshit,” another source said. “We’re not having this discussion because we think there’s quality out there we need to scoop up. That’s not what we’re scooping up.”
Question No. 5: What about the University of Houston?
Multiple Texas sources I’ve spoken with believe UH is a non-starter with several Big 12 schools north of the Lone Star State, which means the feeling around the 40 Acres is that it won’t have to get one piece of dirt on UT’s clothes to keep UH out of the league, if that’s of significant interest to the Longhorns, which I haven’t sensed that it really is.
When I asked a high-level source about UT president Greg Fenves giving a public endorsement on Thursday afternoon to the idea of Houston joining the Big 12, my source sent me one word.
“Politics,” the source replied.
Knowing that others are likely to step up in an effort to block the UH option, don’t be surprised if you see a few more bones being thrown out in UH’s direction from UT because if UH gets blocked as expected, UT won’t have fingerprints left behind to worry about.
So why would other schools oppose the addition of Houston? In short, because adding UH would potentially elevate Houston's profile in the state, which could make Houston a viable threat for schools that would like to recruit that area heavily, like Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, K-State and TCU.
Question No. 6: Speaking of politics, what else do we need to know about them?
This isn’t the 90s.
Unlike the breakup of the Southwest Conference, this isn’t a conference full of teams exclusively from the Lone Star State, as six of the current members are from Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa and West Virginia.
Therefore, when a guy like Texas governor Greg Abbott tries to throw his political weight around with an endorsement of Houston to the league, it just doesn’t have the impact it did 20+ years ago when every school in the conference was embedded in the politics of the state.
One source sent me the following message: “I wonder how much influence he will have in out of state schools? ;-)”
Another source said, “You think anyone at Oklahoma or Oklahoma State gives a damn about Greg Abbott’s demands?”
Question No. 7: Does all of this mean Texas is more or less likely to remain in the Big 12 after the current Grant of Rights Expire?
This is the multi-million dollar question and I haven’t found anyone willing to go too far out of a limb, even if they are willing to acknowledge that the Big 12 is less than desirable in a number of areas.
As far as I can tell, all that really matters to Texas is gaining its leverage and options back as the GOR gets a little closer to expiring with each year.
Should Texas and Oklahoma decide to leave the conference at the end of the GOR, the league would already have replacements in place and if the league was to add four schools, those two departing would suddenly have the league back to 12 teams.
Question No. 8: Are there any favorites at this point?
It depends on who you talk to, but if the league expands to 14, I think Cincinnati is definitely in based on the conversations I’ve had.
UConn, Central Florida, Memphis and BYU are the other schools mentioned by sources, in that order.
It could come down to which schools are willing to give up the most amount of rights revenue over the course of a decade. (Ketchum)
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From the outside, it appears the programs in Florida face an uphill battle to become Big 12 members. However, I spoke to sources at the University of Central Florida and University of South Florida on Thursday, and both programs are compiling proposals they believe will results in successful expansion proposals.
First of all, the Big 12’s decision to expand caught both school off-guard this week. Even though expansion has been a hot topic since last year, nobody expected commissioner Bob Bowlsby to announce the league’s decision to explore adding two or four teams. Now that they know the league is serious about expansion, UCF and USF intend to figure out the best way to pitch their respective schools.
UCF began working on its expansion pitch nearly three years ago, according to a high-ranking official in the school. The Knights are optimistic this league will view last year’s winless football as an anomaly and recognize their success prior to 2015.
In reality, UCF is the second largest university in the nation (Arizona State is No. 1). Orlando is also one of the fastest-growing cities in the United States (No. 7 according to Forbes), and its television market is ranked 19th. UCF is also building a medical school, a campus in downtown Orlando, and the Knights are about to roll out their own digital sports network.
The other appealing aspect about UCF for Big 12 schools is being able to tap into Florida recruiting market.
“We did a study not too long ago, and we found that around 1-in-100 high school football players in football receive a Division I scholarship,” the source told me. “We found roughly 1-in-400 football players in Texas and California received scholarship. That means there is plenty of talent here in Florida for schools to tap into.”
Meanwhile, I spoke to a high-ranking source at USF, and after acknowledging the NCAA’s investigation of academic fraud in the men’s basketball department, the person was very optimistic about the future outcome. However, the source did say the investigation needed to play out, and would not make any predictions.
USF believes it meets the academic criteria schools that schools like Texas want to see. The University of South Florida was the only university in Florida to be awarded "emerging preeminence" status by the Florida Board of Governor's Strategic Planning Committee in June. According to TampaBay.com, “In 2013, the Florida Legislature created the Preeminent State Research Universities Program, granting an extra $5 million to $15 million in state funding to universities that could meet 11 of 12 performance benchmarks the state uses to measure success. Among them: the ability to keep freshmen enrolled beyond their first year, timely graduation of undergraduates and financial growth of the institution.” USF believes the award is another stepping stone to eventually becoming a member of the Association of American Universities.
From a football perspective, USF plays in a 65,000-seat stadium, has 24,000 season-ticket holders, and is the 11th ranked television market (one spot below Houston). The Bulls finished 8-5 last season, including an appearance in the Miami Beach Bowl.
“To me, is the conference going to do what is best in 2016, or make the best decision for down the road?,” a source at the school said. “I’m not sure how having a fourth team from Texas benefits the league. BYU has its own network, which brings more challenges. Memphis played well the past two years with a first-round draft pick at quarterback, but what does the future hold? Cincinnati is maxed out. If you talk about a school that can grow and become something special in six years, I think USF fits everything the Big 12 is looking for.”
From what I was told, USF plans to work closely with the Tampa Bay Sports Commission, a group responsible for putting together bids to bring sporting events to Tampa (college football playoff, Super Bowl, Final Four, etc.), to help its cause.
Sources at both schools believe there is a chance UCF and USF could be a package deal if the Big 12 expands to 14. It makes sense because both schools already have a built in rivalry. In addition, non-football programs outside of Florida would be able to schedule weekend games in Tampa and Orlando, which would be convenient to Big 12 schools. Obviously, each program believes it can stand alone, but they believe joining the conference together does make sense.
As a side note, one USF source told me there is a sense of desperation to join the Big 12 because they anticipate the American Athletic Conference dying in the future. Cincinnati, UCF. USF, Memphis UConn and Houston are member of the American Athletic Conference.
"If you don't get into the Big 12, what happens to your program?," the source told me. "We have to get into the Big 12." (Richardson)
